MLBWire @The_MLBWire
REPORT: The New York Mets
are reportedly "aggressively hunting" a double-swoop for both OF Kyle Tucker AND
LHP Framber
Valdez.
Steve Cohen is reportedly willing to
blow past the luxury tax to land both stars before Spring Training.
MACK
–
I’ve said this before
and I have always meant it… I simply don’t care how much Steve Cohen spends
to build a baseball team. If he wants to pay the penalties, then let him.
Tucker isn’t a perfect
fit. He has played exclusively in right field. So does Juan Soto.
He would have to agree to playing at the opposite outfield position until Sir
Juan moves on to a position yet undetermined.
He turns 29 this month, which
puts a damper on any log term contract past 2031.
The 22-HRs and 4.6-WAR
he produced is a fine number, but the home run production is down from a high
of 30 and it’s the lowest in the past five seasons.
What he is, is a proven commodity,
which Carson
Benge and AJ Ewing aren’t at this point in their
career.
Reports last night is that the Mets offer to Tucker has an AAV of $50mil.
Valdez is a different horse
to ride in on. He’s older than Tucker (32). He produced less WAR than Tucker (3.8).
and his ERA was just okay (3.66). He, like Tucker, is demanding a long-term
contract to a point he would be pushing 40.
He is a lefty though.
The positives of these
two moves are it would fill two critical holes for the 2026 season.
The negatives are both
would stymie future growth from team-controlled prospects, especially starting
pitching.
What would I do?
Well, I would attempt to
convince Tucker on a heavy AAV 5-year deal, with an opt out after two or three.
This would give him the flexibility to move on if he chose to, as well as give
the Mets the opportunity to replace him with a developed prospect within the
chain.
As for Valdez, I would
pass, other than a one-year deal, which gives him the opportunity to revisit
free agency with better stats this time next year.
Baseball America –
Top 30 Mets Prospects
For those of you that are
stat geeks…
Jon Anderson @JonPgh
MLB PROJECTION SYSTEM
ACCURACY SCORES
I checked projection
accuracy for five MLB projection systems from last season.
1. Steamer
2. The Bat / The Bat X
3. ATC
4. OOPSY
5. MLB DW (me)
The summary of what I found:
For Hitters:
1.
OOPSY & ATC
2.
The Bat X
3.
Steamer,
4.
MLB DW
For Pitchers:
1.
MLB DW
2.
OOPSY, ATC
3.
The
Bat, Steamer
Foul Territory @FoulTerritoryTV
The Mets have the best
pitching development system in baseball, says
Lance Brozdowski @LanceBroz
"They know what they're
doing on the personnel side, and they've combined that with a couple of years
of really good development in the minors."
MACK –
Look… I’ve written
various versions of this statement… I don’t care if the Mets sign 100 wild ones
in the off-season, give them travel money, and set them up in a flea bag motel
in St. Lucie. Have them report early every other morning to the lab, take a
number, and wait their turn. Let them throw 10 times, all being the same kind
of pitch evaluators want to target that day. Then sit down and see what the graph
and video on the screen says. Determine an adjustment and have that same
pitcher go throw 10 more of the same pitch, but adding that adjustment. Check
on the screen if things became a little more controlled while, at the same
time, no velocity was lost. If satisfied, cut that pitcher loose and send them
to the back mounds over on the minor league portion of the complex where he can
practice throwing 20-30 more of those same adjusted pitches.
Day Two: no lab, just 20
pitches on the back mounds.
Day Three: Back in the
lab to work more on that pitch, or another one in your repertoire.
And…
Lance is the real deal.
I quote him often. You need to follow this guy.
Daniel Wexler @WexlerRules
Per Baseball America, the minor league deals signed by RHP Jun-Seok Shim, RHP Ofreidy Gomez, RHP Tyler Burch were all for 2 years
Hagen Snell @HagenSnellBB
Seems inevitable that Carson Benge is
on the Mets Opening Day roster or called up within 2 weeks. If so he’ll be PPI
eligible & would net the Mets a draft pick if he wins the ROY award. Doing
so would double the Mets odds with Nolan McLean eligible as well
By the way… the
contracts the Mets signed with minor league players Jun-Seok Shim,
Ofreidy Gomez,
and Tyler Burch were all for 2 years.
Why, I haven’t a clue.
I know I said content on
these new Reports would be Mack generated, but I do want to quote once in a while,
people I highly respect in this industry. Thomas Nestico is one of them.
He’s currently running a
series on his opinion as to who are the top 10 players, at each position, in
baseball.
Two Mets have made the
list so far:
Top 10 Right Fielders
for 2026 –
https://tjstats.ca/2026/01/11/top-10-right-fielders-for-2026/#
2) Juan Soto
RF, Age: 27, B/T: L/L, 6'
1"/224 lbs
DOB: 1998-10-25, Santo
Domingo, Dominican Republic
Juan Soto made his Mets
debut in style with a 156 wRC+ and an NL MVP finalist finish in 2025. Entering
his age 27 season, Soto is smack dab in the middle of his prime and is
projected to perform even better in 2026. He is the most complete hitter in MLB
and is the most likely competitor to dethrone Judge as the best RF in baseball.
Top 10 Shortstops for
2026
https://tjstats.ca/2026/01/08/top-10-shortstops-for-2026/
2) Francisco Lindor
SS, Age: 32, B/T: S/R, 5'
10"/190 lbs
DOB: 1993-11-14, Caguas,
Puerto Rico
Francisco Lindor wrapped up
his second career 30-30 season in 2025 while posting 6.3 fWAR and a stellar 128
wRC+. The Mets superstar is an incredible all-around talent with no discernible
flaw in his profile. His consistency is unmatched and is lined up for yet
another dominant season in 2026.
15 comments:
Great stuff.
Brozdowski is right on the pitching lab. Small, computer-driven adjustment, leading to a new and improved Terminator pitcher. I am finishing up with Invisalign - same approach: my parents had eight kids and no money for braces, so I finally got talked into Invisalign by my dentist. It’s taking time, but my teeth are so much straightened now. Gradual adjustments can lead to real improvements.
If the Dodgers, who have huge payroll and great records every year, can somehow have the best farm system, then I imagine so can the Mets, despite losing 10 slots on the first pick each year
The 10 slot loss is overblown
So you wind up with a player ranked 10 slots below a pool of 2500+ players. Big woopie do.
Also, the Mets are making that up by spending more for top IFA prospects
I looked at OOPSY for their stats projections. Interesting, but Lindor and Alvarez combined are projected at .249, with a HR every 24 times up and a rate of 73 RBIs over 600 PAs. Meanwhile, Vientos was just 6 points lower at .243, with a home run every 21 times up, and a rate of 70 RBIs over 600 PAs.
I a) do not think Lindor and Alvarez will hit that low, combined, and b) am worried at looking at these 3 main guys being projected to have just an average of 71 RBIs despite an average of 25 HRs each,
They also have 266 combined play appearances for Williams, Moribito, and Clifford, and 469 for Benge, but none for AJ Ewing. Collectively, that was a lot more than what steamer had for those five players, but those totals might disappoint a lot of of Mets fans like Ernest dove, if that’s what actually comes to pass. Collectively, the 4 with plate appearances are projected in the .230scombined.
Plate appearances, not play appearances
Now would you rather have Tucker for 3years 150 or Bellinger for 7 and 210?
I would rather have Bellinger for the extra 4 years at 15 mil a season. He plays multiple positions terrifically.
no seven year contracts, thank you
3/$150 is a perfect contract for Tucker. The next three years is really what you’re paying for and hoping to get excess value from when you sign a FA heading into his age 29 season. The guy is a reasonable defensive OF (he did win a GG) and a far, far better RF than Soto (who needs to move to LF), and a top 10 MLb hitter when healthy.
A top 3 of Soto/Lindor/Tucker (L/S/L) would be among the best in the game, Polanco is an underrated hitter, and if two of Baty/Alvarez/Vientos/Benge manage to be above league average hitters this season, it’s a formidable lineup, and better than ‘25’s version.
I don’t want Framber Valdez, and I still think the SP they bring in will come via trade.
@Mack-- Excellent. Projections, projections, projections! Wait for my series in which uncertainty around projectability (generally and with regard to specific skills takes center stage), as do potential for reducing projectiaility uncertainty. BTW, lack of confidence in projectability is a major driver of entrance into the free agent market and perhaps among the greatest contributing factor to poor trades and trade outcomes.! Will be a focus of mine over the next year.
As to Tucker and Valdez. Tucker first. Main competitors are Toronto and LA. Both have already signed free agents who declined QO. Tucker falls into that category raising the opportunity costs of signing him by either team to 4 draft picks and significant loss of money available to sign IFA -- an area in which the Mets have done quite well. This creates a marginal competitive advantage in the competition for the Mets who have yet to sign a free agent who has declined a QO.
The Blue Jays own a competitive advantage over the Dodgers: again a small one. They have offered a DO to Bichette. If he signs with them, they do not lose any free agents. On the other hand, if he signs with someone else, they secure a compensatory pick in the draft. Bichette's leaving then would reduce the net opportunity costs to them of signing Tucker (in terms of lost draft choices). But it does not eliminate entirely the comparative advantage the Mets have over them -- whatever it may be.
Other things being equal then, I rank the likelihood of a Tucker signing as Mets, Blue Jays, Dodgers. Other things are rarely equal, but (as an aside) the tax situation is closer than it would be were there to be a competitor from Texas or Florida for example.
I believe the Mets are fully engaged with Tucker and what we have seen/heard about the initial offer. You can't negotiate without identifying the negotiation space.
As to Valdez. No, no, a thousand time no; and then again maybe. On the definitely no side of the ledger. If the Mets sign Tucker, signing Valdez will cost them 4 draft picks as he also turned down a QO offer; and it will also cost them even more IFA resources. The Mets are justifiably confident in their ability to assess talent both locally and internationally. Signing him would impose significant opportunity costs. Also on the net negative side are both his apparent personality 'quirks' and their impact on the clubhouse, something the Mets in particular should be weary about. I am sure they are doing due diligence, but at the very least, it's hard to be confident about the risk. This is an area in which the Mets should be risk averse.
On the maybe side, he brings experience, doggedness and a history of durability to the table. He also brings age, but lefties apparently can pitch forever. I view that as a myth of sorts because the evidence we have is that lefties (especially bullpen lefties) get offered contracts pretty much until they are eligible to receive social security benefits, which can be explained less by their ability to pitch than by the simple explanation of demand exceeding supply. I'll take the 'Occam's razor explanation, thank you!
This is a case for waiting to see how the market values Valdez, not how is agent does. Markets are most efficient when there is lots of easy to access available information which there is in this case. What is the market telling us?
When markets have operate in an environment of symmetric and broadly available information, bad deals still happen, because that's when 'fools rush in.'
Unless I am mistaken the Mets have a draft choice coming back from the Dodgers signing Diaz.
No!
I remember when good players were signed for $50,000 a year. Now, it’s $50 million a year.
No problem with signing Tucker as Tom has covinced DS to bring in the RF fences if we sign him and that would add 10 to 25 more HRs so were good:)
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