What Broke, and What Comes Next
As the Mets’ 2025 season came to a close with a record of 83–79, it was hard not to feel the weight of missed opportunity.
After a blazing 40–24 start that gave the illusion of a contender, the team cratered down the stretch, playing to a .439 clip post-June 6 and missing the postseason after a 4–0 shutout in Game 162.
But the story of this season isn’t just about collapse — it’s about exposure.
This was the year the Mets’ underlying vulnerabilities were laid bare: inconsistent situational hitting, poor fielding, bullpen fatigue, and rotation instability that compounded over time. At the heart of it all was a run prevention system that couldn’t hold.
The Data Behind the Collapse
It’s clear: run prevention dictated outcomes. The team was elite when limiting opponents to 4 or fewer runs and nearly unwatchable when it failed to do so.
The Mets didn’t have a hitting problem or a pitching problem — they had a fragility problem. And over time, that broke them.
Strategic Alignment: Stearns Saw It Coming
"We have to get back to building a team that prevents runs — not just one that tries to outslug mistakes."
— David Stearns, November 2025
Stearns said this at the 2025 post-mortem press conference. His message was clear: this wasn’t about emotions, panic, or scapegoating. It was about structure.
And in the time since, the front office strategy has followed that same calm, calculated, and durable approach:
Letting go of key veterans like Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo
Avoiding splashy, long-term pitching signings
Creating roster space for young arms like Christian Scott, Brandon Sproat, Dylan Ross, Ryan Lambert and Jonah Tong
Keeping options open for 2026-27 trade flexibility or a big ace addition (Skubal?)
Stearns Said It — Then Did It
“What’s happened isn’t acceptable — but it also doesn’t mean the whole thing is broken. We need to make the right adjustments, not emotional ones.”
“Our goal is to develop and sustain a deep, durable pitching infrastructure... not chase the volatility of short-term fixes.”
This maps exactly to their 2025 offseason actions thus far. The Mets are no longer trying to patch holes with overpaid veterans. They’re building a long-term, controllable, flexible staff — one that can be the cornerstone of a true run prevention identity.
Final Thought: 2025 Became a Stress Test — Not Purely a Tactical Failure
What’s most striking is that everything David Stearns laid out immediately after the 2025 collapse has now become the actual foundation of the 2026 Mets:
He diagnosed the problem
He outlined a plan
He’s now executing it
And, it is consistent with the long-term organizational philosophy
His “say/do ratio” is elite — and that’s the strongest signal that the Mets are finally on a sustainable path.
This post concludes the 2025 Season Review Series, but in many ways, it begins the next chapter. Over the coming weeks, we’ll explore how Stearns’ plan is shaping the 2026 roster, farm system strategy, and trade posture, and whether the Mets are truly ready to make the leap from potential to performance.
7 comments:
Very solid analytical series. He is attempting to build a better run preventing defense and maybe a less boom and bust offense. Pitching? Staff is good now, it needs to somehow avoid the injury pandemic that decimated it in 2025.
100% most of the pitching insurance will be “home grown” & introduced throughout the year. We will see constant fresh faces emerge as needed & ready this year.
Curious...
what is your projection for the team just built?
Thank you RVH. Let’s close the lid on last year and look ahead. The most important acquisition still awaits: Skubal.
I agree! Have a few pieces to update now that this has series has completed.
It will be interesting to see how the roster changes shake out against this theory. The defense has been improved, although we have two corner infield players learning new positions. The pitching has a little more depth, but some of last year's vulnerabilities remain - Senga, Peterson, Manaea have a lot to prove. Peralta is a strong add, but right now that is for one year. Holmes did well last year, but can he go deeper into games this year? Scott is back, Sproat is gone, Tong is a year older, and Myers is a possibility. Overall I am not convinced that the rotation is there yet.
To get Skubal we have to wait until he's a FA and then the big fight to beat LA at there own game ....they should sell tickets to that.
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