Stearns might be thinking…
“How was I supposed to know THIS MUCH could go wrong?
Every sports team faces a range of future outcomes when building a team for a season.
David Stearns no doubt feared the length of deals to Alonso and Nimmo from an age perspective. He must have feared the long term negative potential of future outcomes. We all know one thing:
Baseball players can most assuredly go to bed one night at the top of their game, sleep soundly, but wake up the next morning in steep decline.
Every roster player has a range of outcomes. And every team will experience setbacks each season.
Too many bad ones can kill ya.
Having said that….
Stearns may have planned for 10 negative outcomes.
But how was Stearns possibly supposed to know the following 17 adverse things would happen before the ASB:
- Lindor would miss 2 months because he had Forrest Gump Syndrome, and when he felt his leg muscle pull heading into 2nd, instead of stopping, he foolishly kept “right on running”? He has all of 12 RBIs and a .210 average as of July 16? Bad outcome.
- Jorge Polanco, who was not iron man, but played 138 games in 2025, and drove in 82 runs, would unravel, and have 3 RBIs at the ASB?
- Indispensable Iron Man Soto would miss weeks with a pulled muscle?
- Sean Manaea would come back this spring with the velocity of Randy Jones for several ineffective weeks?
- Rockin’ Clay Holmes would get a 111 MPH liner off his fibula, costing him half a season? Two inches to the right or left…
- Senga would go from ace to an absurd foreign mystery novel?
- Peterson could pitch great from June 2024 thru July 2025, then suck?
- Francisco Alvarez would miss 4 weeks with another injury?
- Baty and Vientos would largely flop in replacing Alonso’s at bats?
- Semien would be worse than expected, even at his age?
- Robert would be as fragile as late-career Cespedes?
- Peralta was traded for to be a SP 1, but pitched as a SP 5.
- Tong was MILB pitcher of the year in 2025, but flop in 2026?
- Wenninger would get stuck in wildness quicksand?
- Relievers Lambert and Ross would flop due to extreme wildness?
- Ryan Clifford would strike out so much he would be his own FAN club?
- Reimer would flop (and get hurt again) after a strong 2025 in AA?
And Mendoza managing skills not being up to overcoming much adversity.
This team missed the lower end of its range of possible outcomes by roughly 2 standard deviations from the mean.
Now, he has to fix the mess. Good luck, buddy.
And…An easy one…Move the fences in.
ELIAN PEÑA IS A STRONGER PROSPECT THAN WE THINK
He is only 18 and playing, not in the FCL, but already up in A ball St Lucie.
At season’s end he will still be 18.
What has he accomplished in his jump straight from the DSL in 2025 to his playing every day in A ball with St. Lucie?
Plenty.
A .387 OBP? Excellent.
SEVENTH BEST OBP IN HIS LEAGUE!
26 steals in 74 games? Nothing to sneeze at. 9th most in his league.
His 2026 DSL HR power has not shown up in Lucie yet, but it will. Why?
He is facing vastly better pitching than the insanely weak pitching in the DSL. So, he is smart. Do not try to do too much.
And he is getting on base ever so frequently.
He has fanned just 67 times in 341 PAs, a rate less than half that of Whiff Guru Colin Houck.
So that, given Peña’s jump past the FCL to A ball at age 18, is super impressive.
His defense is error-prone so far.
- What 18 year old shortstop doesn’t make a lot of errors?
My prediction? Set your watch:
He will be a New York Met by two years from today.
My comparison?
He will be far better than Ryan Clifford by this time in 2027.
He is far better than Colin Houck right now.
Clifford, by default, is the Mets’ current #2 prospect.
Pena could easily be # 2 next year, behind the great Mitch Voit.
HEADING OUT OF THE BREAK, WILDLY
I DO NOT KNOW WHAT’S HAPPENED WITH MINOR LEAGUE BASEBALL.
So many walks in the minor leagues.
Syracuse, for example, is averaging a crazy high 5.2 walks per 9 innings, with Lambert and Ross the chief culprits. That duo’s combined walks and HBPs somehow implausibly exceed one per inning.
Two IL AAA teams nevertheless have walked even more batters!
In the DSL:
5 teams are allowing over a walk per frame this year.
A Braves squad has walked an insane 274 batters in 224 IP.
The Mets’ two DSL teams are “control freaks” - at least by comparison.
“Just” 434 walks in 486 IP.
A mere bag o’ shells. A bunch of Weisenheimers.
Why so incredibly wild? I won’t even hazard a WILD guess.
To cap it off, I looked at pitchers walking more than a man per inning in the DSL.
Trust me, there are ever-so-many. The list is quite lengthy.
But the not-coveted “Four Wild Hombres” award winners for THE WILDEST DSL PITCHERS (all non-Mets) are:
Hector Aguilar, Wilmer Duarte, Luis Acevedo, and Jesus Febles.
Combined, the four have thrown 54 innings.
AND remarkably walked 118, hit 27 batters, and fanned just 39.
Mind-blowing. 24.2 walks and HBP per 9 innings.
Hitting 4.5 batters per 9 innings!
Professionals? Not where I come from.
CLEINER RAMIREZ, BONUS BABY
Thru 31 DSL games, .265/.358/.479.
Is that good? Not terrible, but not great. Why?
There are many poor hitters in the DSL, yet the median team has surrendered 6.3 runs per game.
The median team’s OBP is .401.
So one would expect a bib bonus baby to be destroying the DSL.
It is early, but so far, not so impressive.
FINALLY - R.I.P:
“Ron Hunt, the combative second baseman who became the first Met to start in an All-Star Game, was runner-up to Pete Rose for the 1963 NL Rookie of the Year Award and who as an Expo set the astonishing Modern Era record of 50 hit-by-pitches in a single season, has died. He was 85.”
Fond memories of former Met Ron Hunt.
Hunt had a fine .402 OBP in that 50 HBP season, a .418 OBP in another high-HBP season, and averaged a .390+ OBP from 1970-73, in which he was plunked 126 times.
Someone should tell that to Brett Baty.
Baty has been hit a scant 9 times in his MLB career, once every 152 career PAs, with a paltry .296 OBP.
APPARENTLY NOT REALIZING THAT “BOO BOOS” CAN BOOST OBP.
Hunt got hit once every 25 times up in his long and successful 33 WAR career.
8 comments:
Re: Pena
He's doing just fine
2027 - Brooklyn/Bing
2028 - Syracuse
2029 - kick Lindor to the curb
One thing could delay this. Needs to improve D
Cleiner
Started hot.
Now sort of cold
Still a good sign
Re: Hunt
Another one of my heroes. Gone
My favorite second baseman
I loved his willingness to get HBP to get on base. His last 4 seasons, he hit no HRs, after nearly 40 before that. He probably realized long fly balls tanked his OBP. SO SMART.
I’d like to see Cleiner go on a tear against these terrible pitchers over the remainder of the season. Forget the fences for this year. Rack up hits.
I think you almost never get a good read on the defense of an 18 year old at SS. He should be vastly better next year. By 2029, he and Voit should be every day starting infielders. Voit much sooner. Exciting.
I still cant believe whats happening with Tong, Wenninger, Lambert & Ross. They don't have to be all stars but felt all 4 are major league 26man roster arms.
Jules predicted Tong’s demise. He was right. I think with the hard throwers Ernest it’s a release point consistency thing. If they are struggling with it, they will be in their own heads and struggle. But, anyone can have an off year.
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