Cautious Optimist -- Mets 2027 OD Roster (Version II)

 

This is the second version of my predicted OD 2027 Mets roster .  

A month or so ago, when I found myself unsatisfied writing posts decrying the state of the 2026 version of the Mets, I decided to shift focus to the 2027 team and compare predictions of who will make the opening day roster.  I invited others to share their predictions -- writers and readers alike.

When we started 'predicting', what we offered was more a cross between hopes, expectations, and semi educated guesses.

The second installment of those playing along is due around now (post trade deadline) when a bit of the dust has settled.  The third will take place at an appropriate time late in the offseason; and the fourth will be due mid-way through Spring training.  

Soon thereafter, we get to compare the actual OD roster not just with our final prediction but our earlier ones as well.

As usual, Mack is ahead of all of, as just the other day he offered his predictions of the OD 2028 lineup.  Maybe he knows something about the 2027 season that we don't know.  

Or maybe it's just wishful thinking. In either case, he's entitled.

My views on the possibility of a lockout or strike is complex and based primarily on my long term research interests in game and decision theory.  If you haven't seen my comments on other posts on this issue, don't worry, I will explain it in a post in the next couple of days.

Setting all that to one side, I'm ready to offer the second version of my predicted Mets OD roster for 2027.

Here's the deal

A lot has happened since the publication of the first version of the OD 2027 roster and this one. 

Mendoza has been let go and replaced by Andy Green, neither of whom I predict will manage the 2027 Mets. High confidence in that prediction.

We have significantly more clarity about the outfield but even less about the bullpen. So here goes.

Outfield: 

Starters:  Soto, Ewing, Benge   

Backups: Question Marks (and the Mysterians). 

I think Morabito may well be part of a trade package for a starting pitcher, thus as much as I would like to include him as part of the OD roster, I can't see doing so.  I also believe we may resign Taylor, this time for two years, but I don't think those of us making these predictions should be allowed to name a player -- even if that person is in principle available (e.g. a free agent) -- who was traded at the deadline.

Those individuals could end up back on the team, but choosing them is clearly primarily matter of aspiration, not reliable information.

I have HIGH CONFIDENCE in my prediction of the starter group.  I have no idea who will be a back-up though I believe someone like Young, if he makes the team, could function as a 5th outtielder.  The 4th outfielder will have to be able to play all three outfield positions.  

Aiden might be that guy, but he is a year away at least and his time line is better served were his elevation to coincide with Soto's potential move to 1B.  Frankly, if and when Soto moves to 1B, it is more likely than not that Aiden becomes the starting CF, moving Ewing to left and keeping Benge in right.  

But that is not happening in 2027, whether a truncated season or not.

Infield: 

Starters: Bichette, Lindor, Semien, Goldschmidt/Young or Goldschmidt/Mauricio platoon

Backups: Mauricio/ Semien ( post May) /?

My confidence level declines proportionally as we go from 3B to 1B, but here's my thinking.  This is the worst year for Bichette to opt out, whereas doing so after the 2027 season makes the most sense for him if he is looking both to collect on his Mets deal while maximizing his opportunity to secure a long term contract.  My confidence level re: 3B is HIGH. Bichette is our man on 3B.  After a 5 for 5 night, he's looking like a smarter signing with each passing day.  He certainly has the right attitude.

The Mets have no replacement for Lindor at SS ready in 2027, and he is still capable of performing at a very high level.  I have heard rumors that some of his teammates view him as inauthentic, but I think the impact of that, even if the rumor is accurate and there are teammates who view him as inauthentic, is likely to be minimal at best.  I think there is a decent chance that he will be traded in the following offseason, but I don't think it is likely at this point. So my confidence that Lindor is the OD  SS is MODERATELY HIGH.  

I believe that the Mets like Semien, but don't love him, especially at the price, and especially if he is blocking someone else. The price isn't going to change.  If Semien is blocking Voit, that changes the calculus, but he isn't really.  If Voit is ready, there is no reason not to play him.  He brings defense and speed and an offense that even now is probably better than Semien's.  

In a pinch, or if Semien is traded, Voit would be ready enough.

If Semien ends the season well, I think he starts the season at 2B, but that as soon as Voit establishes that he is ready (which for me means after some time in Syracuse and experience both with a difficult period and professional response in working his way back from it),  Voit replaces Semien, who then takes over as the utility infielder and RH bat off the bench and clubhouse statesman (and future coach and potential manager somewhere in the majors).

My confidence re: 2B is MEDIUM

I don't feel like the Mets are either under or overestimating Young as either a hitter or a fielder.  I think he has been a solid if unspectacular contributor to the team.  

He has hit better than expected.  Right now his BA is up there with Ewing Benge, Bichette and Alvarez, all of whom are substantially behind Soto and over 100 points higher than the man he is replacing -- Polanco.

Still, in terms of hitting potential, Mauricio offers a higher ceiling and more speed.  Neither should be asked to handle the position against both righties and lefties, for the simple reason that it is not that hard to do better through a platoon including a RH hitter who can hit lefties consistently and play better defense than we could expect from either of them.

That is why I am predicting the Mets sign Goldschmidt for a year and perhaps a team option for a 2nd year with a buyout. 

The Yankees now have too many players capable of playing 1B who they need to play. Goldschmidt is not one of them. No reason for them to sign him again.  He is a good defensive 1B and mashes left handed pitchers, and he is an exemplary professional.  

He is a very sensible get for the Mets frankly and provides insurance against Young not being able to replicate this year's performance and Mauricio falling flat.  

The Mets have a couple of players in the minors who are potential fits at 1B but may be a year away, e.g. Lorusso.  

There is also the possibility of Soto moving to 1B to reduce wear on his body, but I think he wants to return next year and win MVP, and that is easier to do from an outfield position than it is as a 1B.

The combo of Goldschmidt and either Mauricio (if he earns it) or Young (who arguably has) does not equal in expected outcomes to Olson, Harper or Freeman, but it is definitely credible, and frankly not all that far behind.

My confidence level of this prediction re: 1B is LOW simply because there are too many question marks.  Still I wouldn't be shocked if this prediction pans out.  There may be many question marks, but there are few answers that make more sense than this one.

What I don't like about this infield is the age and lack of speed.  

Voit would improve both.  

Bichette is youngish, but doesn't run all that well.  Lindor runs well, but is getting older, and may be entering his period of declining performance - probably not next year, but soon enough thereafter to begin planning for it.

That's why next year still feels like a transition year when it comes to the infield.  Nipping at everyone's heels are younger players with great speed.  2028 is when we start to see that emerge, and in doing so the time lines between infield and outfield will align as will the skill sets. 

I have LOW confidence re: Infield back-ups   Far too much is up in the air at this point.  There are backup possibilities in the minors.  The one thing I am confident of is that one backup will be someone who can play defense at a high level at as many positions as possible.

Catcher:

Starting/Back-up: Torrens/Alvarez

I don't think the Mets look at Alvarez/Torrens combo as they did at the start of this year, when they considered Alvarez the starter and future star and Torrens as a quality back-up.  I think the FO now views them as their catching corp or team.  Frankly I wouldn't be surprised if Torrens caught more games than Alvarez (remember run prevention) going forward as he is the far superior defensive catcher, and calls a MUCH better game. 

Torrens' hitting is not far off from Alvarez's either.  He is a better strategic hitter and when possible takes advantage of what the defense is offering.  That is not yet in Alvarez's tool box. 

Alvarez is below average defensively.  I also see him as sharing the DH role with Polanco. Polanco isn't going anywhere as his contract is too heavy a lift.  He will face the righties; Alvarez lefties.  

The young pitching staff needs the confidence it gets from pitching to a good defensive catcher who calls a good game.  That's why i expect Torrens to catch a bit more often than Alvarez

DH:  Polanco/Alvarez

It is an understatement to say that he has under-performed. I think he would be best served finishing out August and then going on the IL for the remainder of the season to ensure that he is healthy going into the offseason so he can prepare for next year. 

His contract makes him untradeable and if he is put at any other infield position other than 1B, he would be slowest runner of the remaining group. 

I think he gets the majority of LH DH work to start next year, and where he bats in the order really depends on how he performs in ST.  He may even be a candidate for a buyout if things go south quickly.

To be very frank, and I am no Baty fanboy overall, were I required to choose between Baty and Polanco as LH DH, I might well choose Baty who has considerably more versatility as well.  

I know I would choose Young over both of them.  That is why Young makes my roster.  Most pitchers are RH so he will receive the majority of playing time at FB, but Goldschmidt makes too much sense a s low cost insurance purchase who adds a power bat off the bench and a welcome presence in the clubhouse.

Starting Pitchers:  

Skubal, McLean, Scott, Thornton, Manaea, Santucci, and another vet obtained through a trade

If they want him, the Mets will not be outbid on Skubal.  The finances make sense because the Mets payroll wil be on the way down as Bichette will be leaving after next year and there is a decent chance that Lindor will be gone a year or too thereafter, though the Mets will have to continue paying some of his salary.  

If I had to bet now, I would say the Mets start the bidding for Skubal at 280m over six years, but ultimately offer 300M over 6 years with an opt out after the third or fourth year and a team option for the seventh.  

I list 7 starters above, but I am not saying that the team will carry 7 starters at the beginning of the season.  My thinking is that over the course of thsy season, for any number of different reasons, the Mets will rely on 8 overall starters (6 mentioned above and 1 unknown obtained in a trade). 

With the chase for Skubal likely intense, and a trade necessary, I am only MODERATELY MODERATE in my confidence in my prediction of the full starting rotation.  I am more HIGHLY CONFIDENT however that McLean, Scott, Thornton and Manaea will be part of the starting rotation on OD 2027 (barring injuries).

Relief Pitchers:

Williams, Lavender, Nunez, Yan, Senga, Garrett, Tong and FA signing. 

One of the pen will be capable of spot starts and one long relief -- though it may not be the same person.  

My view is likely to change after I see how the bullpen as currently constructed fares.

Others that will be used during the season include Ross, Lambert -- if either can locate the plate.

My confidence level re: the Bullpen is best expressed as follows.  

I am HIGHLY CONFIDENT that it won't be as good as this years bullpen, but I am also HIGHLY CONFIDENT that is will be significantly better over the course of the season than most people currently expect that it will be.

Bench players beyond named back-ups.  

Wish I knew, but confident that it will not include Vientos.  We will need someone who can be a pinch runner in late innings and a defensive stalwart.  Doesn't sound like Vientos fills that bill.  No bench player who can't play a position credibly or better.

Manager 

Carlos Beltran, if he wants the job.

Conclusion/ Team outlook

This is a team that should be able to compete for a Wild Card at the very least.

What do you think?