8/4/26

That Adam Smith - Weaver for Stafura: Did David Stearns Get His Man?

Stearns gets his guy: Mets trade Luke Weaver + Cash for Sammy Stafura



Amidst the train wreck that is the 2026 Mets season, the bullpen has been by far their greatest strength. And in that bullpen, no one had been better than Luke Weaver.


In 44 innings this season, which included a 28.1 inning scoreless streak Weaver gave up just 25 hits, 11 walks, and 9 earned runs for a 1.84 ERA.


Despite not being a closer, Weaver was not only the Mets’ best reliever, but one of the best relievers in the game all season.  And while much of the rest of the ‘pen was being sold off for parts, Weaver was under control for 2027.


And yet, the Mets traded Weaver as part of their 2026 teardown - while paying down a significant portion of his contract for both this year and next - to the Pittsburgh Pirates in exchange for 21 year-old shortstop and self-proclaimed “one of the biggest Mets fans ever” Sammy Stufara.


It’s a lot to give up. This was more than just the best guy available. The Mets had been rumored all week to be interested in Stafura, but to give up Weaver while covering most of his salary going forward, Stafura was clearly a player that Stearns had identified and targeted.



Stafura is considered a plus-plus defender at shortstop with a 60-grade arm and elite or near-elite speed, giving him a very high floor.  If there were questions about Stafuro’s ceiling, it was whether he would get to the power that his tools hinted at, and whether his game might be hampered by a bit too much swing and miss.


This season - or, more specifically, the past six weeks - seems to have answered the power question in a big way, and while he’s not a sure thing yet, if Stafura can cut down a little bit on the whiff, his ceiling is very high indeed. 


Sammy Stafura grew up a huge Mets fan in Cortland Manor NY and was drafted in the second round of the 2023 draft by the Cincinnati Reds out of Panas HS. Keith Law went out of his way to laud the Reds for the pick at the time, calling Stafuro “a first round talent.”


He got a cup of coffee in Rookie Ball at  the end of the 2023 season, and returned there to start 2024 at 19 years old. Over his first 69 AB’s in Rookie ball, he hit .346/.449/.582/1.031 with 7 XBH and 4SB. He was immediately promoted to Daytona (A) in the Florida State League.

In 290 AB’s at Daytona, where he was 2 years younger than league average, Stafuro hit .255/.374/.379 for a .754 OPS and stole 27 of 32 bases.


Stafura opened 2025 as a 20 year-old - still young for the league - back in Daytona, where he hit .261/.392/.410 in 402 AB’s for an .801 OPS, with 18 2B, 9 3B, and just 5 HR, with 63 BB and 97 K.


Then, at the 2025 trade deadline, the Reds traded Stafura to the Pirates who assigned him to their A-ball affiliate at Bradenton, an assignment that lasted just four games before a promotion to A+ Greensboro of the South Atlantic League.


At Greensboro, he struggled over the season's last 26 games to the tune of a .512 OPS in 110 AB’s. 


In January of 2026, Stafura partially tore the UCL in his throwing arm, delaying his spring training.  His season got off to a rough start at the plate in Greensboro, and then in May, he strained a hamstring, missing 3 weeks. He came back for 8 games of rehab in A-ball and returned to Greensboro on June 9th.  


From the start of this season until June 13th, over 30 games, Stafura was hitting .192/.319/.303 for a .522 OPS.  But then something clicked.


Starting on June 14th, Sammy Stafura went on a tear, going 13 for 38 for a .342 BA for the rest of the month. And then July happened.


In July of this season, Sammy Stafura went 29 for 81 (.358) with 14 HR in 18 games, bringing his season A+ stat line to .301/.365/.656/1.021, with 19 HR, 7 2B, 1 3B over 211 AB’s, successful on 16 of 17 stolen base attempts. 


Now, it must be said that Greensboro is a launching pad, and 13 of his 19 A+ HR’s this year have come at home. But he’s also OPS’d .899 on the road.  


On the July 25th episode of the Bucs On Deck podcast,  Anthony Murphy who closely follows the Pirates system said, “It’s been ridiculous. I’ve seen some hot streaks of guys who’ve come through Greensboro, but this is by far one of the most insane runs I’ve seen for a minor league player." 

 

A once in a lifetime hot streak?  Maybe. But Stafuro doesn’t think so.


“Mentally, I’m believing that I’m the best player on the field and acting like that every single day,” Stafura told MLB News. “I think that’s been one of the biggest parts of this year is just believing that I am the person I am, and I’ve started acting like it the past month, and it’s been showing pretty well.”

 

Stafura’s not a finished product.  He’s struck out around 30% of his AB’s in A+ this year, and his whiff rate is over 30% as well.  But while he needs to cut back on his swing and miss, he’s hitting the ball often and hard.  And he’s still only 21.


Stafura was listed as the Mets’ #11 prospect by MLB post-deadline, but others, including Joe Demayo, teased on his deadline edition Mets’d Up podcast that he’d have him significantly higher than that in his updated rankings later this week.


Sammy Stafura is already seen by most evaluators as a future top defensive SS in baseball with elite speed and base stealing ability.  His background had hinted at power, and now that’s showing as well.  


Based on those attributes alone, even if he doesn't cut down on the swing and miss, Stafura is almost certainly a major league player. But if he can reign that in - even if it means dialing back a bit on the absurd HR power that has showed itself over the past 6 weeks - David Stearns may have just traded a year of Luke Weaver (along with a reported $8 million in cash) for Francisco Lindor’s heir apparent at shortstop, and added another cornerstone piece to to the Mets’ exciting young core.


One of the biggest Mets fans ever. How cool is that.


5 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Stafura hopefully will cut those Ks and become a STAR. He is apparently starting out in High A Brooklyn (boo).

I hope that UCL injury does not cause him to need surgery at some point.

Paul Articulates said...

Great to have a young guy with that kind of talent, but the Mets' batting coaches are not known for helping with K rate - it usually goes the other way. I think they overpaid, especially if cash was involved. Weaver was not an expiring asset - he had real value. Now we are paying for Weaver and are left with only potential value.

D J said...

The Mets transaction page lists several more Mets prospects at Binghamton released yesterday.

TexasGusCC said...

From Keith Law today:
“ The Mets land Stafura, a breakout prospect who has hit .301/.365/.656 in hitter-friendly High-A Greensboro this year for the Pirates. Pittsburgh picked up Stafura at the 2025 deadline from Cincinnati for Ke’Bryan Hayes, at which point Stafura was a high-OBP but low-power bat who swung and missed too often for that profile. He has done more damage at home, with 13 of his 20 homers at Greensboro’s launching pad, but he’s still hitting a very respectable .270/.385/.514 on the road.

Unfortunately, he is still selling out to get to that power, with a 37 percent whiff rate on the season that’s an alarming 34 percent on fastballs. That’s not a sustainable formula and he’s going to have to give back some of that power to put the ball in play at an adequate rate to even be an everyday player. He’s a plus runner and potentially a plus defender at short, although he’s mixed in some time at second base this year.”

TexasGusCC said...

I feel like the Mets whiffed on this deal. Should have gotten a better player or at least something else of value.