Paul Articulates - an error in judgement

Baseball players are as different and unique as human beings.  As we have seen from so many controversies in the news, the attempts to generalize or stereotype groups of people into a singular trait most often go horribly wrong.

This is also true for baseball players.  In characterizing prospects, we often use the five tools (hit for average, hit with power, field, arm, speed) to rate their potential.  It is very rare that a player scores high in all areas.  We all accept that most players will have a weakness in one or some of those areas.  

The same logic applies to positions on the diamond.  A player can be a tremendous outfielder but may not have the instincts or the quickness to play a middle infield position.  A strong-armed shortstop may not have the control to be a successful pitcher.  Most of us accept that reality as well.

Somehow, this logic does not seem to be accepted when people discuss the position of first baseman.  I am frustrated (call it my pet peeve) when the speculation begins that a power hitting prospect should be moved to first base because we desperately need a first baseman.  It seems that there are certain positions in baseball that are mischaracterized as easy to play, so just about anyone can play there.  Left field, third base, and first base come to mind.  I disagree strongly.

First base is a position that requires some basic skills to be competent: field ground balls, catch balls thrown to you.  Easy, right?  Not so fast.  To excel at first base and to make a difference in your team’s success rate requires much higher skill in more complex areas.

Scooping balls in the dirt and handling throws in the basepath are ways that a very good first baseman makes the rest of the infield better.  The ability to range both left and right on hard hit balls is critical to scoring well on the Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) metric.  Few do this well, and this was the category that put Pete Alonso in a lower tier of defensive abilities that later led to the “run prevention” fiasco that put a different uniform on his back.  

There is also a more subtle but very important skill that differentiates the best first basemen, which is their ability to integrate with second basemen and pitchers on balls hit between them.  Only the best and most experienced have the judgement to let a ball in the hole get fielded by the second baseman or a dribbler get fielded by the pitcher that yields an out instead of a blooper clip.  

Then there is the 3-6-3 double play, and if you have Keith Hernandez level skill the 3-5-4 double play.  Finally, to be among the best first basemen in the league, you need to have the “hit for average” and “hit with power” tools.

Hopefully you understand my reasoning that first base is not a position that “anyone” can play while attaining team excellence.  You also probably understand now why it is frustrating to me when people speculate that some player that has the two hit tools should become the next first baseman.  This type of speculation doesn’t just come from the guy next to you on the train that has never played baseball at an elite level.  

David Stearns was guilty of that in deciding that Jorge Polanco could be our next first baseman.  Polanco was a decent middle infielder in his youth that had been “retired” to the DH spot by the Seattle Mariners at the age of 32.  Before coming to the Mets, Polanco had played one single at-bat at the first base position in his career.

Polanco certainly had the range at one point in his career, having played 501 games at short and another 430 games at second, but from 2023 on he played very little up the middle indicating diminishing capability.  

He had the ability to hit (.259 lifetime batting average) and hit with power (156 career HR), and recently batted .265 with a .495 slugging percentage so those tools were still relevant.  Learning those other skills that differentiate first basemen on the fly was not a realistic expectation.  

This is not about Polanco vs Alonso.  This is about the bad assumption that anyone can play first.  Here are a few more:

Mark Vientos had the power bat but had already demonstrated a lack of range and fielding excellence at third base.  Yet he was “tried” at first base at the major league level after only accumulating 73 games of experience over 3 years at first in the minors.

Many have speculated that Jacob Reimer, and now Billy Amick could be the first basement of the future even though they have had little to no exposure at the position.

Brett Baty has probably done the best in the “try him there” carousel this year.  Baty did fairly well there, but he has also demonstrated that he is one of those rare baseball players that can play capably at most positions in the field.  He is more of the mold of Jeff McNeil or Luis Guillorme that just has the fielding prowess to play anywhere.  But with any of these guys, you get competence, not excellence at the extra positions.  If the Mets want to outperform other teams, they need excellence at first base.

Jared Young showed some strong capability at first this year also, but he is not in the category of “converts”, as he had accumulated 329 games at first base in the minors and another 17 at first base in the majors prior to this season.

The Mets need to have a specific focus on recruiting and training an exceptional first baseman.  They also need to be looking for one with those skills now on the free agent market.  Good is not going to cut it.  Very good is what we had with Alonso and have not replicated.  Excellent is very hard to get and is very expensive in free agency.

Currently in the system the Mets don’t have many candidates.  Probably the best was JT Schwartz, who had the exceptional fielding at first base that Stearns covets.  But Schwartz only could hit for average early in his career and when they tried to develop a power tool, it regressed his hitting completely and he has now been released.  Others like Ryan Clifford and Corey Collins and Nick Larusso and Trace Willhoite are not demonstrating the full range of tools.

The first base position continues to be a hole in the Mets’ progress towards a championship team.  In my opinion, this should not be taken lightly by assuming that someone can just “learn the position”.  It needs to be addressed by a multi-pronged strategy that includes:

• Development from within.  First, drafting first basement that have learned the necessary skills and had the reps in college and just need to enhance their tools.  It also means identifying candidates early in the development cycle for transformation to the position but realizing that it will take years and 100 games to gain the necessary proficiency.

• Acquisition of prospects that have already shown proficiency in this path.  This would be a great shortcut to success but assumes that the right candidates are available and can be obtained without sacrificing too much capital.

• Acquisition of a top tier MLB first baseman if possible.  This is unlikely, as teams that have excellent first basemen are few and far between.  Nick Kurtz would be great, but at what price?  Fortunately, if the Mets can implement the prior parts of the strategy, this is only a short-term bridge and older players (e.g. Christian Walker) become part of the universe of candidates.  

There is a lot to do to elevate this team to elite level, but aside from pitching, the first base position should be a top priority for the Mets.