Reese Kaplan -- Good Alternative to Tarik Skubal Is Out There

Going into the upcoming offseason which begins after the World Series ends there are going to be a few monstrously large contracts offered to special players who may or may not provide a good value to their new employers.  

While a few years ago the cherry on top of the pile of free agent was the now $765 million man, Juan Soto.  While he has missed time due to injuries, when he is on the field he’s doing it all offensively with his bat, his OBP and his legs.  

Whether or not the Mets are getting full value for what they are paying the man, the fact is that as bad as they’ve been it would have been markedly worse if he was not a part of the roster.

This year’s consensus top contract is 29 year old multi Cy Young award winning lefty, Tarik Skubal.  

He’s spent nearly his entire career with the Detroit Tigers before a deadline deal to the Dodgers as they felt it was better to get something in return for him when he walked away as a 2027 season free agent.  

He was already earning $32 million for his final year in Detroit/Los Angeles and is forecasted to get a massive contract for both a higher average annual value and for a great many years given his young age.

How good has he been?  Well, the numbers are indeed spectacular.  His record of 66-44 is doubly impressive when you analyze how the Tigers have done during his Detroit tenure.  Even more impressive is his CAREER ERA of just 3.02.  His WHIP is just a whisker over one baserunner per inning pitched.  He’s also good for racking up a very respectable average of 226 strikeouts per season. 

Is there a downside to Skubal?  Well, paralleling Detroit Tigers history he has more in common with the physique not of Denny McLain, Jack Morris, Mark Fidrych nor Justin Verlander and more aligned with longtime Tiger starter Mickey Lolich.  Yes, his is overweight and you would have to wonder whether his lack of conditioning will impact his health and thus his availability to take the mound.

How much will he cost?  Well, if you read the various amateur and professional analysis of this question the answer is quite simply a lot.  The running duration most say he will command is 10 years.  Multiply that by an annual fat check of somewhere between $38 million and $50 million, a total that would blow away the record for the highest price ever paid for a pitcher. 

For the Mets he would obviously be the top end ace they have stated they want but his financial commitment and the long term issue with his 240 or more pound body weight could lead to him missing a lot of playing time.  No one would complain if they signed him, of course, but what alternatives exist if the Dodgers, Yankees or another team choose to roll their biggest dice on Skubal?

Former Yankee pitcher Michael King has already stated he’s opting out of his Padres contract which would have paid him $28 million for the 2027 season and $30 million for 2028 after earning just $12 million for the 2026 season.  He’s not signing for pocket change but has already shown top of the rotation ability.

For his career King owns a 43-39 record which is tempered by his entire Yankee tenure spent primarily in the bullpen.  For the Padres he’s made 78 starts and demonstrated that like former Yankee/Met Clay Holmes it is indeed possible to make that transition successfully.  His career ERA is a highly respectable 3.23. 

Given that he is a few years older than Skubal and does not have Cy Young awards on his mantle, he’s not going to command quite the same salary.  Figure $32 million per season for 5 years which would give you his ages 32 through 37 years for a grand total of $160 million.  It would seem that from a quality and value standpoint he would be a shrewd alternative that won’t be in the headlines nearly as much as is the Dodger lefty.