The Morning Report 7.13.2015 | 2nd Half Mets Questions, Top MLB Futures Game Performances, Conforto Ready for MLB, Trade Proposals

James Newman | Mets 360- What a first half it has been for the New York Mets, as the team stands in contention for a playoff spot entering the All-Star break. At the end of Saturday, the Mets stood 46-42 and only two games behind the Washington Nationals, and one game out of the wild card race. While the Mets have hovered around a .500 winning percentage for most of the season, there are a lot of reasons to be excited for the second half. However, there are some questions that will need to be addressed as the season progresses.

(Chris Soto: James' questions in his article are all very fair ones. Will the Mets continue holding back young talent? Will Sandy make moves to improve the ballclub? When will d'Arnaud, Wright, Matz, and Blevins return? When talking about the current state of the Mets, I think it's very important to point out the following. At the beginning of the month we said that the current stretch of games against the Giants, Dodgers, D-backs, Cardinals, Nationals and then the Dodgers is by far the most difficult stretch the Mets will face all year. So far they are 7-2 against these opponents. If the Mets can continue this momentum and take a few games from the Nationals....they can turn this whole season around very quickly.) 

Ted Berg | For The Win- The U.S. team throttled the World team, 10-1, in the 2015 All-Star Futures Game at Great American Ballpark on Sunday. And though it’s impossible to conclude anything from a single exhibition game, the following prospects stood out from the rest of the pack: #5 Mets OF Michael Conforto. The Mets’ outfield hopeful showed why he was considered one of the most polished hitters in the 2014 draft with line-drive singles to center and right field in his two at-bats. Conforto also made a great throw home from left field to nail a runner trying to score from second on a single.

(Chris Soto: I watched the Futures Game pretty extensively yesterday and boy did Conforto stand out. Not only was he 2 for 2 against the top young pitchers in minor league baseball, but, he also looked....unchallenged or unphased, by the premium stuff that these guys were bringing. In addition, previous pre-draft reports citing that his defense needed significant work in the OF seem to be outdated and need to be thrown away. Not only is Conforto playing well in LF, but he is also displaying what seems to be a plus arm in LF. Conforto threw a runner out at home yesterday on a line and MLB Advanced Media clocked the throw velocity at 93mph.) 

David Lennon | Newsday- To Michael Conforto, the leap from Double-A to the majors is not unreasonable. He's seen it happen this season with the Cubs' Kyle Schwarber, the Rangers' Joey Gallo and a pair of Twins, Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. So why not him? "Everyone's going to compare themselves to those guys," the outfielder said before Sunday's Futures Game at Great American Ball Park. "Yeah, I've pictured myself as that person. And I do think I'm ready. But it's not my call." Conforto, 22, wasn't shy about saying he could help the Mets right now. But not in a boastful way. And judging by the numbers, maybe he eventually will change the front office's mind.

(Chris Soto: After yesterday's Futures Game performance, Sandy's mind must be running around in circles about this guy. Conforto certainly "looks" ready to take on the MLB and most of the AA stats back that claim up. However, there is still 1 glaring item in his stat line, his K rate. Currently is sits at an even 20%, which is 5 basis points above in A+ numbers. However, Conforto has shown significant improvement in this department as well. During the 1st 2 weeks in AA the K rate was 28.2%, the following 2 weeks it was 21.7%, and these most recent 2 weeks it has dropped to 17.3%.)

Chris Soto | Trade Targets

Let's start taking a look at realistic trade targets that Sandy could possibly put together. We'll start in reverse standings order and climb the ladder a few teams at a time.

Colorado Rockies (39-49): "Re-tooling" mode 

• I feel like we say the same thing about the Colorado Rockies every season. They have one of the top offenses in baseball, but, they can't pitch worth a damn. You can blame the Coors Field event all you want, but, when your starting rotation is anchored by Jorge De La Rosa, who is likely no better than a #4 on most teams, you have a problem. However the Rockies solid core of young offense and young incoming pitching talent will prevent any thoughts of a full re-build. Everyone has their eyes on SS Troy Tulowitzki who is showing to not only be healthy, but, productive as well. In addition, the Rockies have been developing a very capable young SS in Trevor Story who has legitimate 5 tool potential and is now in AAA. The Rockies GM is a generally an irrational individual who is loyal to his players to a fault, but, with Story's rapid development, now may be the perfect time to deal Tulowitzki and net himself a massive package.
• Trade Proposal: Mets send RHSP Noah Syndergaard for SS Troy Tulowitzki + cash
• Reason: Man...I really DO NOT want to trade Thor.....but....the helium so far created by his performances to date may be enough to pick up Tulowitzki on his own. It's the basic, trade from strength to improve weakness strategy. Tulo instantly jumps the Mets from a bottom 25% offense to above the mid way point. Meanwhile the pitching would go from Top 3 to maybe Top 5 or 6. The net gain in offense would FAR outweigh the net loss in pitching.

Cincinnati Reds (39-47): "Re-tooling" mode 

• Just like the Rockies, the Reds have a solid group of young offensive talent and a young solid incoming class of pitching. Unfortunately, the Reds no longer have contract control over most of their current pitching staff so they need to re-tool the rotation in order to compete in future years. The club's biggest trade chip is of course Johnny Cueto, but, the Mets would have no interest in him with an already Top 3 SP rotation. Jay Bruce would also be another interesting name for the Mets to look at, but, with an already crowded OF and Michael Conforto potentially forcing his way to the MLB roster. I'm not sure Sandy would be interested in another piece blocking Conforto's path to the MLB LF spot.

NO FIT

Oakland Athletics (41-50): "Re-tooling" mode

• Let this sink in for a moment. The Oakland Athletics have only 2 players that are under guaranteed contracts past this season; Coco Crisp and Billy Butler. 5 of their top 7 contracts are coming off the books this season giving the club almost $40M to spend in Free Agency next season. Since the A's already have a strong core of SP's and GM Billy Beane always has a future vision, look for them to be really active this off-season to try an compete in 2016. Rather than letting Free Agents go for nothing, Beane is going to try and get something out of SP Scott Kazmir, UT Ben Zobrist, RP Tyler Clippard, and RP Eric O'Flaherty. Mets would certainly be interested in the versatile Zobrist as well as Clippard. Pending Jerry Blevins condition, they could also made a play for the lefty specialist Eric O'Flaherty as well.
• Trade Proposal: Mets send IF Matt Reynolds, SP Michael Fulmer for UTIL Ben Zobrist and RP Eric O'Flaherty.
• Reason: The A's farm system is completely barren after the failed Samardzija trade last season and needs significant help. Beane also loves his moneyball style utility players and Matt Reynolds certainly fits that bill. The Mets don't really need a late inning RP as much as they need a lefty specialist to replace Jerry Blevins who's fractured wrist is not healing well. 

MMs Top 25: #19 RHSP Michael Fulmer

#19 RHSP Michael Fulmer (LR: #12)

Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 200 lb

Age: 22
Acquired: 2011 Rule IV draft, 1st round,  Deer Creek HS (Edmond, OK)

2014: (A+) 6-11, 4.39 ERA, 98.1 IP, 8.0 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.546 WHIP
2013: (A+) 3-3, 3.33 ERA, 46.0 IP, 8.2 K/9, 3.7 BB/9, 1.130 WHIP
2012: (A) 7-6, 2.74 ERA, 108.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.200 WHIP
2011: (Rk) 0-1, 10.12 ERA, 5.1 IP, 16.9 K/9, 6.8 BB/9, 2.438 WHIP

     For every riser on a prospect list....there is a faller. The next three guys on this list posted extremely disappointing results in 2014 but still have the tools to develop into MLB contributors if they can right their career ships. First on the list is the oft-injured, former 1st round pick, Michael Fulmer.

     Since his stellar 2012 season with the Savannah Sand Gnats that put him on the high end of the prospect radar, Fulmer has been struggling to stay healthy and has been losing valuable development time. In 2013, Fulmer suffered a torn meniscus during Spring Training which delayed the start of his season until the short season leagues started in late June. He was able to make 9 relatively good starts before a come-backer off the bat of Casey Kotchman struck Fulmer in shoulder/bicep area. The area bruised up pretty good and then developed tendonitis which caused the Mets to worry enough to place Fulmer on the DL for the rest of the season.

     2014 started much better in terms of health but all the lost time pitching in 2013 caused Fulmer's "stuff" to regress. His fastball became much more hittable and his breaking pitches kind of flattened out. This caused opponents batting averages against him to skyrocket from a solid .227 Avg to an unsightly .289 Avg. You can possibly attribute it to his discomfort landing on his surgically repaired knee, but, one would expect progression as the season went along which he did not show. Fulmer also developed some stark Lefty/Righty splits (.230 avg vs.R./.338 avg vs. L) during 2014 which could seriously jeopardize his ability to remain a starter. To make matters worse, Fulmer couldn't even finish the season as he landed on the DL again, this time for a shoulder strain he sustained in mid-August.

     Despite all that, Fulmer is still a solid prospect who could turn it around and have a dominant 2015. He still possesses a plus fastball that sits between 93-95 mph that has some decently heavy sink. His primary secondary pitch is his slider which scouts believe can develop into an MLB average offering. Currently the slider is his primary weapon against right handers but he lacks an effective secondary pitch to use against lefties as evidenced by his splits. Developing his change-up some more could help mitigate that split but currently the pitch is a below average "40 grade" offering. Working heavily with the change-up guru, Frank Viola, could pay huge dividends for Fulmer this Spring Training.     

     I hate to use the term "make or break" in reference to prospects development, since anyone can breakout at any time in their individual careers, but 2015 is going to be an extremely important season for Fulmer. He needs to prove that he's fully healthy and he needs to progress his stuff to the next level. With Syndergaard and Matz nearing promotion Fulmer is the highest on the food chain in terms of arms with upside. He'll need to step up if the Mets wish to hold their rank as one of the best farm systems in baseball. 


Ceiling: #4/#5 Back End MLB SP (Charlie Morton)
Floor: Medium Leverage ROOGY
Anticipated Assignment: (AA) Binghamton Starting Rotation.

MMs Top 25: #12 RHSP Michael Fulmer

#12 RHSP Michael Fulmer (LR: #13)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 200 lb
Age: 21
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 1st Round, Deer Creek HS (Edmond, OK)

2014: (A+/AA) 6-11, 4.38 ERA, 98.2 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 1.541 WHIP
2013: (A+) 2-2, 3.44 ERA, 46.0 IP, 7.7 K/9, 4.8 BB/9, 1.235 WHIP
2012: (A) 7-6, 2.74 ERA, 108.1 IP, 8.4 K/9, 3.2 BB/9,1.200 WHIP
2011: (R) 0-1, 10.12 ERA, 5.1 IP, 16.9 K/9, 6.8 BB/9, 2.438 WHIP  

***Please take note: After re-reviewing Fulmer's case I have bumped Mazzoni and Puello up 1 spot and am slotting Fulmer at #12.

     With all the hype surrounding Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, Montero, Ynoa, Molina, Whalen, Mazzoni and DeGrom; Michael Fulmer has sort of become the forgotten pitching prospect within the system.

     After posting very strong numbers as the 4th youngest pitcher in the SAL, Fulmer torn his meniscus during Spring Training which caused him to miss a better part of half the 2013 season. He was starting to round back into form with 3 straight 6+ inning starts until he took a comebacker to his pitching arm off the bat of Casey Kotchman. As a precaution, the Mets front office decided to keep him off the mound for the remainder of the season.

     Fulmer is back this season fully healthy and pitched well enough at the Florida State League that he's already earned a promotion to Binghamton. He possesses a 93-94 mph fastball that has touched 97 at times and a very hard, sharp mid 80's slider that is MLB average right now and has the potential to be a plus plus major league offering. He has also improved his change-up to the point where it could become a potential 3rd MLB pitch.

     With the number of young pitchers who have made, or are ready to make the jump to the MLB level, Fulmer is going to have really impress during his time in Binghamton both this and probably next year in order to get an MLB shot. If there ends up not being room for him, he could be a secondary trade piece for a bat.

Ceiling: Good #4/Borderline #3 MLB pitcher (Charlie Morton)
Floor: Middle Leverage Reliever/Spot Starter (David Phelps)

MM's Top 25- #13 RHSP Michael Fulmer

#13 RHSP Michael Fulmer (LR: #8)
Bats: R Throws: R
Height: 6' 3" Weight: 200 lb
Age: 21
Acquired: 2011 Rule 4 Draft, 1st round supplemental, Deer Creek High School (Oklahoma)

2013: (A+) 2-2, 3.44 ERA, 4.8 BB/9, 7.7 K/9, 1.235 WHIP
2012: (A) 7-6, 2.74 ERA, 3.2 BB/9, 8.4 K/9, 1.200 WHIP
2011: (R) 0-1, 10.12 ERA, 6.8 BB/9, 16.9 K/9, 2.438 WHIP

With all the hype surrounding Harvey, Wheeler, Syndergaard, and Montero along with the emergence of Ynoa, Lara, and DeGrom; Michael Fulmer has sort of become the forgotten pitching prospect within the system. 

After posting very strong numbers as the 4th youngest pitcher in the SAL, Fulmer torn his meniscus during Spring Training which caused him to miss a better part of half the season. He was starting to round back into form with 3 straight 6+ inning starts until he took a comebacker to his pitching arm off the bat of Casey Kotchman. As a precaution, the Mets front office decided to keep him off the mound for the remainder of the season.

Fulmer will be back this season fully healthy and ready to take another crack at the Florida State League. He possesses a mid 90's fastball that has touched 97 at times and a very hard, sharp mid 80's slider that has the potential to be a plus plus major league offering. His change-up continues to lag behind his slider and he'll need to improve it in order to stay a starter long-term. With the number of pitchers ready to make the jump to the MLB level, Fulmer is going to have an opportunity to finish the year in Binghamton but he'll have to prove that he's back and dominate in Port St. Lucie first.

Anticipated Assignment: (A+) Port St. Lucie starting rotation.
Ceiling: Solid #4 starter/borderline #3
Floor: Low Leverage Long Reliever/Spot Starter

Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-29-13 – Vic Black, Dilson Herrera, Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins, Matt Harvey

 

Michael Baron ‏@michaelgbaron  - In four starts since returning from the DL, Jon Niese has a 1.93 ERA, only 6 BB, 28 K, 28 IP. 7 IP/start. Walks were an issue pre-DL.

 

Your 2014 draft order with 30 (or less) games to go: 1. HOU 2. MIA 3. CHC 4. CWS 5. MIN 6. MIL 7. SF 8. SEA 9. TOR 10. NYM

 

Mark Simon     ‏@msimonespn     -  Vic Black has thrown 64 MLB fastballs this year. They have averaged 96 MPH, peaked at 98.2. Breaking ball averages about 82

 

Just a wonderful addition of RP Vic Black yesterday, giving the Mets two top ten prospects in the Pirates deal. My top ten right now lines up as: 1. RHSP Noah Syndergaard, 2. RHSP Rafael Montero, 3. 1B Dominic Smith, 4. OF Brandon Nimmo, 5. SS Gavin Cecchini, 6. RP Vic Black, 7. OF Cesar Puello, 8. 2B Dilson Herrera, 9. LHSP Steven Matz, 10. RHSP Michael Fulmer.

 

SP Michael Fulmer has been shut down with new shoulder problems. There does seem to be a growing health issue here which would be a shame since Fulmer is a very talented pitcher. He really needs to start over next season for St. Lucie… he was 3-3, 3.33 in nine starts this season for GCL (rehab) and Lucy. Remember, he will only be 21 next season.

 

Jonathan Mayo –

Dilson Herrera, 2B: Herrera was ranked No. 11 on the Pirates' Top 20 at the time of the trade. Herrera was signed out of Colombia in 2010 for $220,000, and he has made steady progress since. He was among the rookie-level Gulf Coast League leaders in several offensive categories in 2012, and he continued to be productive making the jump to full-season ball at age 19 in 2013. A South Atlantic League All-Star and Futures Game participant, Herrera has shown an ability to hit and with more power than expected considering his 5-foot-10, 150-pound frame. He runs well and has the chance to be a base stealing threat. Herrera has hit double digits in home runs and stolen bases in 2013, and that should continue, especially if he can refine his plate discipline to let his bat play more consistently. His speed serves him well in terms of range at second, and he should be able to stay there long-term.  

 

There has been very little player movement in the system since the all-star break. Normally, better players move on to ‘properly’ speed up their growth, but this year it seems every Mets affiliate is in a pennant race and wants to hold on to its players. What all this has created is players like Dominic Smith and Jhoan Urena remaining on the GCL-Mets, Robert Whalen, Chris Flexen, and Jeff McNeill remain with Kingsport, Gavin Cecchini, Miller Diaz, and Robert Gsellman remain in Brooklyn, Steven Matz and Brandon Nimmo will finish the season in Savannah, and half the Binghamton team doesn’t move to Vegas. Was this the original plan by the Mets? I wouldn’t think so because wins and losses are not the primary goal of affiliate teams. It’s supposed to be all about development, not whether or not a championship is won at the rookie level. Losing a Flexen is supposed to balance off when you gain a Smith. IMO, the Mets are operating badly in this area right now.  (FLASH - Smith was promoted to K-Port yesterday afternoon) 

 

Ken Davidoff –

In short, this trade culminates a good run by GM Sandy Alderson. He picked up two valuable players in Buck and Byrd for very little money -- Buck and R.A. Dickey’s salaries essentially canceled each other out, and Byrd made six figures -- got value from both and then flipped them for a guy who could help down the road. That’s textbook baseball operations for a rebuilding team.

The Pirates, forever a rebuilding team and now a contender, intelligently used a resource in Herrera to strengthen themselves as they try to secure their first playoff berth (and first winning season) since 1992. http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/baseballinsider/rod_hughes_alderson_hUHVdzHoHKlBrZh2p1TNRN#ixzz2dHCfypy7

 

Mark Healey –

I know that many folks will say that my long support of Wally Backman makes me biased in this area, and I won’t dispute that. I didn’t like the Collins hire at all, and I have an admitted more than once that he’s been a lot better than I expected. I expected a a horror show. The subsequent cheaper below .500 “love fest” (they try hard, yay Mets!) that has ensued is no less acceptable than a drama-laden ( see 2009 Mets ) one would have. Terry Collins will in all likelihood be back in 2014, be he shouldn’t be. Nice guys might not finish last, they but they don’t seem to finish in first lately either. The Mets have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason, more so with the loss of Matt Harvey. Improving the manager and his coaching staff should be part of that effort. http://www.gothambaseball.com/2013/08/terry-collins-shouldnt-be-back-in-2014-2/

Mack - Healey has been the President of the Backman fan club for many years now. I have second thoughts on Collins but third thoughts on Backman. I just don’t see him as a major league manager.

 

Grantland -

Masahiro Tanaka is just 24 years old, but already in his seventh season playing in a major professional league. Following in the footsteps of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Yu Darvish, Tanaka is expected to come up for bidding this winter, earn a ton of money, then play for an MLB team next season. For a country that appears on its way to producing more quality pitchers than ever before, Tanaka is likely to be the next major target.

The Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Japanese Pacific League haven't officially made Tanaka available yet, but major league teams are already salivating over a pitcher they see as a no. 2 starter once he crosses the pond. The stats are … ridiculous, really. In 21 starts this year, Tanaka has gone 18-0 with a 1.15 ERA. This isn't anything new. In 2011, Tanaka went 19-5 with a 1.27 ERA, winning the Sawamura Award — which predates the Cy Young. In 2012, he went 10-4 with a 1.87 ERA. Drilling deeper reveals more eye-popping stats. Tanaka struck out 138 batters this season against just 23 walks (a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate), ceding just five homers in 165 innings pitched. That's actually his worst result of the past three seasons: Tanaka whiffed 169 batters and walked just 19 in 2012 (just less than nine strikeouts for every one walk) with just four homers allowed in 173 innings, and fanned 241 while walking just 27 in 2011 (another near-9-to-1 rate), with eight home runs given up in 226⅓ innings. For perspective, only three qualified big league starting pitchers have ever posted strikeout-to-walk rates of 9-to-1 or better: Curt Schilling in 2002, Cliff Lee in 2010, and Bret Saberhagen in 1994.  http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/72725/japans-next-big-thing 

 

Matt Harvey is having a hard time with this TJS shit. He’s tweeting that he’ll be back on April 1^st and he even met with Roy Halladay, who had a similar injury and never went under the knife. It’s simply too early for anyone to make any decisions here. There’s about two weeks of swelling that needs to go away and then new MRIs and CAT Scans will tell the experts the extent of the tear. What the xrays won’t tell anyone is what would eventually would happen if no surgery was performed. It’s simply to tell you what the game plan would be if there was surgery…  2014 would be lost… 2015, at best, would be around 150-155 innings… and 2016 would be the first year Harvey would be able to pitch without restrictions. And then there is the Halladay plan… he’s been on and off disabled lists since 2004 with arm and shoulder problems, plus a torn UCL, yet he found time to pitch a no-hitter, a perfect game, and a couple awards named after a guy named Cy Young. I know what’s going to happen here. The doctors are going to confirm some degree of a tear, but it will only be a partial. I also know in my heart that Harvey is not going to sit for a year and then pitch sissy for another. No, guy like this operates at full throttle, even if there is a possibility of a future full tear and career ending injury. There’s going to be quite a tug and pull here between Harvey and the Mets. Stay tuned.

 

Mack Ade – AM Report – 7-9-13 – Akeel Morris, Michael Fulmer, Jeremy Hefner

I talked with P Akeel Morris and he has confirmed that he is being piggy-backed right now in Brooklyn. This is potential great news for the ex-starter prospect who has once again turned some heads with his blazing speed. This time he’s doing it with command and the results so far: 4-G, 2-0, 0.00, 10.2-IP, 18-K, 3-BB. Watch out world… Akeel is back!
 

MLB Power Ranking – 25.  New York Mets 37 – 48 (26) +1:  Sending Ike Davis to Las Vegas may have worked. LINK
 

Still hot for K-Port is starter Carlos Gomez who still hasn’t given up a run in three starts (3-starts, 17.IP, all goose eggs only 7-K’s but a flawless control game.
 

The Cubs trade OF  Scott Hairston to the Nationals for 21-year-old RHP Ivan Pineyro (A-ball: 5-3, 3.14, 1.12, 66IP/65K) – non top 20 prospect
 

We were looking to see how St. Lucie would handle the rotation once Michael Fulmer came back. Well, Fulmer pitched 5.0 on Sunday, followed by ex-starter Angel Cuan (2.0-IP, 3-K, 0-R, 4.04). This leaves Fulmer, Hansel Robles, Domingo Tapia, Rainy Lara, Matt Bowman, and Alex Panteleodis in their 6-man rotation. Next up should be Steven Matz and, since none of these guys are ready to step up to AA, my guess is that Pants will hit the pen later this month.

We have to stop looking for a new home for SP Jeremy Hefner. He continues to do very little wrong in June. Since June 4^th, he leads the majors with a 1.64 ERA. We’re not talking about Matt Harvey here. He just turned 28 in March and is under team control until way past 2018. The name just doesn’t roll off our tongue because he never was considered a prospect of this organization. He’s also not one of those speed freaks so we don’t drool when his name hits the box score, but what you have to do is come up with a new name for this guy if you have to make you realize that he’s for real. Call him Jerry Koosman, or Rafael Montero, or someone who immediately brings a smile to your Mets face. Your team has just found a future member of your rotation who isn’t going to break the bank. And… and this is the most important part of this… this is not someone that should be traded. Rotations work when you have different kinds of pitchers following each other.
 

Five guys that throw 96-98 is high speed batting practice and, eventually, in a 3-4 game series, the other team’s batters will hit your pitchers. But, if you put up some heat (Harvey), follow it with finesse (Hefney), go back to heat (Wheeler), go lefty (Niese) and then end with control (Gee), you have an excellent major league rotation.
 

What this does is set up 2014 as a workable excellent rotation that could be enhanced with someone like Montero. It also serves up Montero as possible trade bait which makes much more sense than trading someone that has already proved he can dominate at the major league level.

Let’s go back and review this again… ‘Jerry Koosman’ or whatever the hell you call him, leads the major league since June 4^th with the lowest ERA. That’s something already proved, not something wishfully thought of.

Troy Renck        ✔ @TroyRenck  - Are looking. Not many arms available. A lot of buyers RT @halljw9: With Oswalt out, Nolasco a Dodger. #Rockies Hand forced to make a trade?

                Hmm… the Rockies looking for a starter… how about Jeremy Hefner for Kyle Parker or Tim Wheeler?

 

By the way, we are currently working on an upgrade of the Mack’s Mets web site to Word Press. There’s a good chance it will be completed by the end of this month and we will ‘double post’ all the good stuff on this old Blogspot site as well as the new one. We will let you know when to change your address to our site.

Mack Ade – PM Report – 6-26-13 – Jayce Boyd, Kyle Johnson, Michael Fulmer, Eric Young, Gary Seagren

                                   1B Jayce Boyd - .371/.443/.509/.952, 275-AB, 6-HR, 53-RBI, 34-K, 35-BB

                                These are Boyd’s combined stats this season for Savannah and St. Lucie. They really are kind of special. I watched him play in Savannah and, I have to tell you, I didn’t think he’d actually hit better at the next level. That being said, he’s been an instant hit in Florida and, along with C Kevin Plawecki, has given thw Mets there a well needed shot of offense.

                                                I just can’t see any future for this kid as a Met. You have Ike Davis ahead of him and Dominic Smith one year behind. You try and figure out why a team drafts a first baseman in the sixth round. Was it an honest attempt to secure an insurance policy for Davis or was it an early roster fill?

                                                I’ve spent some time with Jayce as well as his family and ex-coach. I’d like to think the Mets recognized that Boyd had always been a hitting machine in college for a major school (Florida State) in a major conference (ACC). Boyd hit, in his three years there, .326, .335, and .376 and I remember draft day well. I was shocked that he was still on the board in the sixth round and thrilled he was picked by the Mets (though I do have to say that a hometown favorite of mine, St. John’s Kyle Hansen, was picked next at 201^st overall).

                                                Boyd’s going nowhere the rest of this season and don’t be surprise you don’t see him in Arizona during the off-season. We have to recognize his potential at this point and raise him to ‘blue’ prospect’ status.

The Los Angeles Angels have acquired OF Collin Cowgill from the Mets for minor league OF Kyle Johnson

                                The Mets tried dealing Cowgill earlier this week for a higher level prospect. But it didn’t work out. Johnson is a non-prospect ex-25^th round draft pick (2012) out of Washington State. He actually was having a pretty dam good year for the Angels’ A-level team: 245-AB, .310/.403/.424/.827. There is absolutely no pop here. Was the #10 prospect in the LAA system and did have 30 stolen bases, but he’s a 23-year old playing A-ball. 

                                   Michael Fulmer: 6 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 6 K –

                                                Wow… I didn’t see this one happening.

                                                                        Fulmer is technically on the Savannah DL roster, though he would be pitching St. Lucie if he never was injured. Right now, the Lucy rotation is a 5-man (Domingo Tapia, Angel Cuan, Alex Panteleodis, Rainey Lara, Matt Bowman) with the Sand Gnats’ Steven Matz knocking on the door. Do you promote Matz and put Fulmer back in Savannah to take the pressure off, or do you keep Fulmer ahead of the Matz, both early draft picks?

                                                                        This is not the time of the year to have a six-man rotation.

                                                                        Me? I want Fulmer in St. Lucie, where he belongs, but I also want Matz there.

                                                It’s time to clean out the closet, starting with D.J. Mitchell and Chris Schwinden in Las Vegas. Replace them with Logan Verrett and Erik Goeddel.

                                                My Binghamton rotation for the remainder of the season would be Noah Syndergaard, Domingo Tapia, Cory Mazzoni, Mark Cohoon, and Darin Gorski.

                                                That leaves me Fulmer, Matz, Cuan, Pants, and Lara in Lucy.        

David Wright on Eric Young –

“He’s been a shot in the arm for us. I think it’s unfair to expect him to keep up at this pace. He’s been great in the outfield. He’s set the table. And he’s provided some thump as far as some extra-base hits. He can steal a bag. And I think sometimes pitchers worry about him on the base paths and might leave one over the plate for you.”

MetsBlog quoted DePo saying that this was the second time he had tried to purchase Young. It’s amazing how easy it is for someone to fall in love with an outfielder that can hit .250. Still, I can see him sticking in 2014 as the ‘third best’ in a new three-man outfield. 

Gary Seagren -

Hi Mack, A thought just hit me the other day and I had to laugh. Can you imagine a scenario where we're in the wildcard race (don't stop posting the standings please) and come Sept. we're forced to "Strasburg" Harvey OMG! Come on stop laughing it COULD happen and admit it your thinking it too.

I haven’t spent any time thinking about pitch count. In fact, I can’t remember the last time, as either a Mets fan or writer, that this subject has ever come up. I have put back up the ‘wild card race’ as well as keeping up the ‘draft pick race’. Call it a ‘half-full, half-empty double post. There one main reason you aren’t going to have to worry about becoming a payoff team. There simply are too many teams that are needed to be passed in the race. It simply isn’t going to happen this year.

Anyway I agree with your recent post but I wouldn't go after any of the Eithier , Choo , Ellsbury troika cause we've been down that road WAY to many times before so I say stay with pitching, pitching and more pitching along with using the rest of the season to gauge Ike, Lucas, Travis Rueben and in Sept. Montero, Puello and a cast of thousands for the bullpen. Look if Harvey, Wheeler and Parnell are for real that goes a long way toward respectability and I know how you feel about prospects vs. major leaguers but if Choo, Ellsbury and Eithier are the answer then we're asking the wrong questions.

                I have no problem with Choo.

I like the stability of the past week, but that’s going to change when Ike Davis returns to first base and Lucas Duda goes back to left field.

I would play Eric Young, Duda, and Marlon Byrd… every night. I would establish this as the level of talent that my outfield needs to be judged by. Juan Lagares and Jordany Valdespin would be my utility outfielders until Justin Turner or Ruben Tejada returned. Then, I would replace Valdespin with Andrew Brown.

Until then, I would send down Brown with Kirk Nieuwenhuis. I’m probably done with the whole Captain Kirk thing. Banish him to the… no, that’s Superman. Just leave him at Vegas. The showgirls will love him.

As for Valdespin, he has refused to hit enough to be marketed. Now he’s just a bad hitting, average fielding, pain in the ass. Let him leadoff for Las Vegas until the phone rings some day.

In my opinion SS is our most pressing need and if I'm trading a major prospect chip that's the position I want filled after the dismal performance of Tejada and the lack of SS ready prospects in the system. I will live with defense in the OF and we certainly can find a suitable mix from among say an inexpensive resign of Young and Byrd and someone from among Den Decker, Puello and Lagares. We've stayed with the Sandy plan this long and we're finally starting to see the benefits so let’s stay the course a bit longer. Your opinion's always welcome.

I did find it interesting that everyone gave up on Tejada as soon as his defense started to stink up the place. In addition, he seemed to actually not care regarding the quality (or lack of) of his work. I’d like to give him the rest of the year to prove his long term value.

Andrew Brown, Jim Callis, Michael Fulmer, Randy Fontanez, Mets OF

Jim Callis‏ - @jimcallisBA -

Very thin before trade. @wexlerrules: I'm surprised @jimcallisBA ranks the Mets system so poorly post-Dickey trade

                 All at lowest levels, though. @mania715: lotta pitching depth pre-trade

I do like him. Also recognize it's a long way from low A to majors for a pitcher. @thatkicker: are you a Michael Fulmer believer?

RP Randy Fontanez - Indios de Mayaguez – PRWL Playoffs – 0.1-IP, 0-H, 1-SV, 0.00

Dirty got an exclusive scouting report from ‘Purple Row’ a prominent Colorado blogger about OF Andrew Brown:

“At 28, Brown looks like a prototypical AAAA player. Although he showed flashes of power at the big league level last season, slugging .429 while hitting five home runs in limited time with the Rockies, Brown doesn’t appear to have the patience or pitch recognition skills necessary to consistently produce at the highest level. In addition, Brown provides little to no defensive value. Brown has spent the last two years tearing up the Pacific Coast League, and that won’t change in 2013 if he ends up in Triple-A with the Mets moving to Las Vegas. The Mets and their fans should take extreme caution if Brown gets off to a torrid start, as things likely wouldn’t translate well from Las Vegas to Citi Field in Queens.”

               

Great. Sounds like a ‘mile high’  Val Pascucci. I guess this is what you get when you bottom fish and, right now, the more bodies the better. Let’s see, where do we stand for camp:  Righties:  Brown and Collin Cowgill. Lefties: Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Jordany Valdespin, Mike Baxter, Lucas Duda. Also on the 40-man are Cesar Puello and Juan Lagares who are not ready.

                Right now, my guess is:

                                RF           -              Lucas Duda

                                CF           -              Kirk Nieuwenhuis

                                LF            -              Mike Baxter/Collin Cowgill

                                UT          -              Jordany Valdespin

                But…  I expect much more to happen to the 40-man before opening day.

The Keepers - #14 - SP - Michael Fulmer

14.     Michael Fulmer:

6-6-11: - Mets Supplemental 1^st Round Pick -  RHP Michael Fulmer 6'2", 180 lbs.- Deer Creek High School, Oklahoma – Frankly, I didn’t know a thing about this kid when his name wall called out. Remember, I do a lot of work on the draft every year and I compile just about every word I can find being reported about these guys. There were 144 RHPs named in all those mock drafts and not one of them mentioned Fulmer. I never claimed to be an expert in this area. I’m just a messenger of what everyone else claims to be an expert in. I’ve now learned that he, like Brandon Nimmo, is committed to the University of Arkansas, and, according to Keith Law, throws in the 92-7 range and has a great curve. Again, like Nimmo, I have no idea how to grade this pick so I have to give it another incomplete rating. In fact, my whole night has been incomplete. Blogspot’s having tech problems and I can’t put pictures up and I sort or had so much more planned to write about tonight. Hopefully, some of the college guys still available in the draft will be picked by the Mets tomorrow and I can pump me up. One thing I will say. Lots of balls here and big planned to over-slot. I hope for their sake there’s a signature here.

6-27-11 – named to the Baseball America 2011 Postseason High School All-American second team.

8-8-11: - Stock Meh – SP Michael Fulmer – Fulmer started his first professional game today, and a no-hitter going, but didn’t get out of the first inning. No one slid into him or no hammy was pulled. Line: 0.2-IP, 0-H, 3-BB, 1-WR, 2-R, 1-ER, 13.50. We’ll write this one off as nerves and check back in five days from now.

8-22-11 Observation: - SP Michael Fulmer – Admittedly, I had Fulmer ranked too high in my last roster feature. I simply confused him with someone else. It really doesn’t matter where or how the high school kid is used this season and there is reason to rush him. There are a fair amount of college arms that were signed in the last 30 days and they will move ahead of Fulmer in the pecking order. My guess is he will remain in extended camp when the season starts and head up the Brooklyn rotation in 2012. ETA: 2016

8-21-11: - Stock Down – SP – Michael Fulmer – Fulmer threw his third professional outing Sunday and, so far, he might be dreaming about college. First outing: 0.2-IP, 3-ER… 2nd outing: 0.1-IP, rainstorm… today: 2.1-IP, 2-ER. A positive sign was five strikeouts today. I’m sure he’s just getting his feet wet.

Mets: Frank Francisco, Michael Fulmer, Gary Carter, Matt Harvey

Frank Francisco - Let's welcome Frankie Frank to the team, especially since he saves us from the heartburn Captain Fastball was set to provide us. Now Bobby Parnell isn't even second on the bullpen depth chart. Suddenly, the team has a capable closer, and an obvious handcuff in Ramon Ramirez. It's the perfect setup for a late-draft strategy. Draft Francisco late and enjoy his dominance of the weaker league -- and his first time calling a non-bandbox home -- and keep an eye out for Ramirez, who will be interesting when Francisco takes his yearly vacation on the disabled list. He's going with the 234th pick (ranked 317th) and should rack up 30 saves and nice ratios. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/14/2795663/fantasy-mets

 2-10-12 - http://seedlingstostars.com/2012/02/10/s2s-2012-team-prospect-lists-new-york-mets/?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter   - Starting Pitcher #4 : Michael Fulmer. The 44th overall pick in 2011, Fulmer is a high school righthander with a solid fastball/curve combination. For what it’s worth, he struck out ten of the 31 batters he faced in the GCL in his pro debut. He’s far away from the majors and doesn’t project as a front-of-the-rotation guy, but if things go well, he could be a mid-rotation workhorse. Grade: B

Howard Johnson remembers Gary Carter standing on the dugout steps in the 10th inning of Game 6 of the 1986 World Series before he sparked the Mets’ famous rally against the Red Sox. “He said, ‘There’s no way I’m going to make the last out of the World Series,’ ” Johnson said after the Hall of Fame catcher died yesterday at 57. “And with Gary, more than just about anyone else, you believed him. He was the ultimate competitor.” And it was that fighting spirit that he brought to his battle against the brain cancer. “If you could mold yourself after one person, both as an individual and an athlete, it should be Gary Carter,” said another former Mets’ teammate, Wally Backman, now the manager at Triple-A Buffalo. “He was the guy. He was the perfect combination of a great player but an even better person. There was no one I would rather have as a teammate. … He was like a big brother to me.”  http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/remembered_as_warrior_on_the_field_4OevssOLDncHIcP1reKDXO#ixzz1mdvhHs1U

Matt Harvey wants to take it slow this spring: Keep the expectations modest and hope for the best. Cracking the rotation is not an option for the Mets’ 2010 top draft choice, but showing the organization enough to maybe earn a promotion to Triple-A Buffalo isn’t out of the question. Whatever the case, Harvey is out to demonstrate that his struggles last summer, after jumping from Single-A St. Lucie to Double-A Binghamton, were more about nerves than ability. “I think I put a little too much pressure on myself moving up,” said Harvey, who finished 5-3 with a 4.53 ERA in 12 starts at Double-A. http://www.nypost.com/p/sports/mets/harvey_measuring_his_expectations_2tuNFZ39HjzOMhhlLYXw6M#ixzz1mdwDPnt7

Mets: Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Michael Fulmer, Shortstop

Mets:  Jose Reyes, Johan Santana, Michael Fulmer, Shortstop

Marlins Sign Jose Reyes for 6/$106M - I know that a lot of people have reservations about Reyes’ health, and I’m on a bit of an island in loving this deal for the Marlins, but I don’t think that our ability to predict future health is anywhere near good enough to make a player of Reyes’ talents take this kind of discount. Reyes is a better player than Prince Fielder and signed for half of the total guaranteed money. Yes he’s had leg problems, but at this price, Reyes could miss a significant chunk of each season and still be worth the money. The guy is a legitimate +5 win player in the prime of his career, and he signed for just slightly more than the Carlos Lee price tag. The Marlins got a lot better this winter, and they did it primarily by bringing in one of the best shortstops in baseball at a price that makes sense for the organization. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/the-10-best-transactions-of-the-winter/

Best Pitcher: Johan Santana - It would be nice to not have to pick a guy that missed 2011 recovering from shoulder surgery, but the Mets don't have much else to work with. During his time in Minnesota, Santana was one of the best pitchers of our time and I think a lot of people tend to forget how dominating he really was. Between 2004 and 2008, he averaged: 17-8, 2.82 ERA, 0 starts missed, 229 innings, 238 Ks, 52 BBs, 1.02 WHIP and he won two Cy Young awards while finishing in the top 5 all five years. In New York he has been good, but not nearly that good, and he missed parts of 2009 and 2010 before missing all of 2011. http://www.faketeams.com/2012/2/6/2775041/fantasy-baseball-spotlight-new-york-mets

RHP Michael Fulmer - Much like I group Pill and Verrett together due to similar ceilings/stuff, I group Fulmer along with the aforementioned Mazzoni in terms of overall ability and ceiling. Fulmer was the Mets 2011 supplemental selection (44th overall) in exchange for losing Pedro Feliciano to the Yankees. Drafted out of an Oklahoma high school, it cost the Mets just short of $1M -- well over MLB slot -- to sway Fulmer's strong commitment to the Univ. of Arkansas. Like Mazzoni, Fulmer signed just in time to get a little seasoning, though he was less successful in his four appearances with the GCL Mets. However, he too features a low-to-mid 90's heater and an advanced slurve for a prep product. Though like most prep pitchers his change-up lags far behind. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/6/2768128/2012-amazin-avenue-mets-top-50-prospect-15-11

It would seem to be a foregone conclusion that Tejada is the 2012 shortstop, and of the future, for the Mets. We are assuming that he will look at least as good as he did last year, when he filled in ably at short when Reyes was on the DL. At the same time, he was a little erratic at short compared to how confident and natural he looked at second base; that said, do we know for sure which side of 2B Tejada belongs? Might we see him playing both positions in 2012? Further, what if Tejada looks completely overmatched at shortstop during spring training? Would the Mets start the season with Ronny Cedeno at short, and send Tejada down to AAA for more seasoning at the position? Or would they keep him up with the big club, working him in and out of the lineup until he earns a starting job? I wonder if the former makes more sense; at age 22, Tejada is still very young, and may benefit more by regular reps rather than sporadic starts. http://www.metstoday.com/7422/11-12-offseason/mets-spring-training-question-12-shortstop/