Mack Ade – AM Report – 8-29-13 – Vic Black, Dilson Herrera, Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins, Matt Harvey

 

Michael Baron ‏@michaelgbaron  - In four starts since returning from the DL, Jon Niese has a 1.93 ERA, only 6 BB, 28 K, 28 IP. 7 IP/start. Walks were an issue pre-DL.

 

Your 2014 draft order with 30 (or less) games to go: 1. HOU 2. MIA 3. CHC 4. CWS 5. MIN 6. MIL 7. SF 8. SEA 9. TOR 10. NYM

 

Mark Simon     ‏@msimonespn     -  Vic Black has thrown 64 MLB fastballs this year. They have averaged 96 MPH, peaked at 98.2. Breaking ball averages about 82

 

Just a wonderful addition of RP Vic Black yesterday, giving the Mets two top ten prospects in the Pirates deal. My top ten right now lines up as: 1. RHSP Noah Syndergaard, 2. RHSP Rafael Montero, 3. 1B Dominic Smith, 4. OF Brandon Nimmo, 5. SS Gavin Cecchini, 6. RP Vic Black, 7. OF Cesar Puello, 8. 2B Dilson Herrera, 9. LHSP Steven Matz, 10. RHSP Michael Fulmer.

 

SP Michael Fulmer has been shut down with new shoulder problems. There does seem to be a growing health issue here which would be a shame since Fulmer is a very talented pitcher. He really needs to start over next season for St. Lucie… he was 3-3, 3.33 in nine starts this season for GCL (rehab) and Lucy. Remember, he will only be 21 next season.

 

Jonathan Mayo –

Dilson Herrera, 2B: Herrera was ranked No. 11 on the Pirates' Top 20 at the time of the trade. Herrera was signed out of Colombia in 2010 for $220,000, and he has made steady progress since. He was among the rookie-level Gulf Coast League leaders in several offensive categories in 2012, and he continued to be productive making the jump to full-season ball at age 19 in 2013. A South Atlantic League All-Star and Futures Game participant, Herrera has shown an ability to hit and with more power than expected considering his 5-foot-10, 150-pound frame. He runs well and has the chance to be a base stealing threat. Herrera has hit double digits in home runs and stolen bases in 2013, and that should continue, especially if he can refine his plate discipline to let his bat play more consistently. His speed serves him well in terms of range at second, and he should be able to stay there long-term.  

 

There has been very little player movement in the system since the all-star break. Normally, better players move on to ‘properly’ speed up their growth, but this year it seems every Mets affiliate is in a pennant race and wants to hold on to its players. What all this has created is players like Dominic Smith and Jhoan Urena remaining on the GCL-Mets, Robert Whalen, Chris Flexen, and Jeff McNeill remain with Kingsport, Gavin Cecchini, Miller Diaz, and Robert Gsellman remain in Brooklyn, Steven Matz and Brandon Nimmo will finish the season in Savannah, and half the Binghamton team doesn’t move to Vegas. Was this the original plan by the Mets? I wouldn’t think so because wins and losses are not the primary goal of affiliate teams. It’s supposed to be all about development, not whether or not a championship is won at the rookie level. Losing a Flexen is supposed to balance off when you gain a Smith. IMO, the Mets are operating badly in this area right now.  (FLASH - Smith was promoted to K-Port yesterday afternoon) 

 

Ken Davidoff –

In short, this trade culminates a good run by GM Sandy Alderson. He picked up two valuable players in Buck and Byrd for very little money -- Buck and R.A. Dickey’s salaries essentially canceled each other out, and Byrd made six figures -- got value from both and then flipped them for a guy who could help down the road. That’s textbook baseball operations for a rebuilding team.

The Pirates, forever a rebuilding team and now a contender, intelligently used a resource in Herrera to strengthen themselves as they try to secure their first playoff berth (and first winning season) since 1992. http://www.nypost.com/p/blogs/baseballinsider/rod_hughes_alderson_hUHVdzHoHKlBrZh2p1TNRN#ixzz2dHCfypy7

 

Mark Healey –

I know that many folks will say that my long support of Wally Backman makes me biased in this area, and I won’t dispute that. I didn’t like the Collins hire at all, and I have an admitted more than once that he’s been a lot better than I expected. I expected a a horror show. The subsequent cheaper below .500 “love fest” (they try hard, yay Mets!) that has ensued is no less acceptable than a drama-laden ( see 2009 Mets ) one would have. Terry Collins will in all likelihood be back in 2014, be he shouldn’t be. Nice guys might not finish last, they but they don’t seem to finish in first lately either. The Mets have a lot of work ahead of them this offseason, more so with the loss of Matt Harvey. Improving the manager and his coaching staff should be part of that effort. http://www.gothambaseball.com/2013/08/terry-collins-shouldnt-be-back-in-2014-2/

Mack - Healey has been the President of the Backman fan club for many years now. I have second thoughts on Collins but third thoughts on Backman. I just don’t see him as a major league manager.

 

Grantland -

Masahiro Tanaka is just 24 years old, but already in his seventh season playing in a major professional league. Following in the footsteps of Daisuke Matsuzaka and Yu Darvish, Tanaka is expected to come up for bidding this winter, earn a ton of money, then play for an MLB team next season. For a country that appears on its way to producing more quality pitchers than ever before, Tanaka is likely to be the next major target.

The Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles of the Japanese Pacific League haven't officially made Tanaka available yet, but major league teams are already salivating over a pitcher they see as a no. 2 starter once he crosses the pond. The stats are … ridiculous, really. In 21 starts this year, Tanaka has gone 18-0 with a 1.15 ERA. This isn't anything new. In 2011, Tanaka went 19-5 with a 1.27 ERA, winning the Sawamura Award — which predates the Cy Young. In 2012, he went 10-4 with a 1.87 ERA. Drilling deeper reveals more eye-popping stats. Tanaka struck out 138 batters this season against just 23 walks (a 6-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate), ceding just five homers in 165 innings pitched. That's actually his worst result of the past three seasons: Tanaka whiffed 169 batters and walked just 19 in 2012 (just less than nine strikeouts for every one walk) with just four homers allowed in 173 innings, and fanned 241 while walking just 27 in 2011 (another near-9-to-1 rate), with eight home runs given up in 226⅓ innings. For perspective, only three qualified big league starting pitchers have ever posted strikeout-to-walk rates of 9-to-1 or better: Curt Schilling in 2002, Cliff Lee in 2010, and Bret Saberhagen in 1994.  http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/72725/japans-next-big-thing 

 

Matt Harvey is having a hard time with this TJS shit. He’s tweeting that he’ll be back on April 1^st and he even met with Roy Halladay, who had a similar injury and never went under the knife. It’s simply too early for anyone to make any decisions here. There’s about two weeks of swelling that needs to go away and then new MRIs and CAT Scans will tell the experts the extent of the tear. What the xrays won’t tell anyone is what would eventually would happen if no surgery was performed. It’s simply to tell you what the game plan would be if there was surgery…  2014 would be lost… 2015, at best, would be around 150-155 innings… and 2016 would be the first year Harvey would be able to pitch without restrictions. And then there is the Halladay plan… he’s been on and off disabled lists since 2004 with arm and shoulder problems, plus a torn UCL, yet he found time to pitch a no-hitter, a perfect game, and a couple awards named after a guy named Cy Young. I know what’s going to happen here. The doctors are going to confirm some degree of a tear, but it will only be a partial. I also know in my heart that Harvey is not going to sit for a year and then pitch sissy for another. No, guy like this operates at full throttle, even if there is a possibility of a future full tear and career ending injury. There’s going to be quite a tug and pull here between Harvey and the Mets. Stay tuned.