Remember's Ramblings –
Volume 2, Article 8
February 18, 2025
Score Early, Score
Often!
Remember's Warning: My numbers brain got loose for this article – there is a lot here, but interesting to me. I really hope I don’t lose you before you have a chance to get to the end.
There was something about the Mets in 2024 that bothered me as the year progressed that I was feeling, but didn’t know the specifics or even if my feelings were valid. It just seemed to me that the Mets did not get off to an early lead very often and it seemed that they played a lot of catch-up late in games.
The common knowledge is that a baseball game is nine innings and the team that has the most runs at the end of those nine innings is the winner. If that was all there was to it, it would seem that it did not matter when all the runs were scored. But there are games within the games.
To
drill down into those games within the game, I broke the scoring down into
three-inning segments, plus segregated the first inning by itself, just to see
how the team did after one inning, three innings, six innings and nine innings
(or the final score if it happened to go into extras).
The common information that is readily available is the final score record. The Mets were 89-73 in their 2024 162 game season for a .549 winning percentage.
Three Inning Games
If games had been just three innings, their final record would have been 63-58-41, or a .521 winning percentage. This tells me my feelings of playing catch-up were real. They did play (score) better in innings 4-9 than in innings 1-3.
As a further breakdown to see how much scoring early in the game matters, in games they were winning after 3 innings (63 games), they went on to win 46 of them (vs. just 17 losses), or a .730 winning percentage.
In games they were losing after 3 innings, they finished them off at 18-40, or a .310 winning percentage. That tells me that there is a huge advantage to scoring early and grabbing the lead after the first three innings.
Six Inning Games
If games had been six innings, their record would have been 78-60-24 for a .565 winning percentage. By the time they got to the sixth, they had caught up more often than not and they should have quit then. Their six-inning scores yielded a better record than their full game scores – their late inning bullpen work needed to be a little better.
In games they were winning after 6 innings (78 games), they finished them at 61-17 (.782). Unfortunately, that was less than half the games they played.
In games they were losing after 6 innings, their winning percentage was a predicable .200 (12-48). Fortunately, that scenario occurred in just over one third of their games.
Score early for best final score results! The Mets won a creditable 41 games when they came from behind, but wouldn’t it be nice to get that early lead and hold it more often so they didn’t have to do the late game comebacks?
Starting a Game Strong
And just because I was curious and it was a snowy weekend with not much else to do, I did a deeper dive to look at just the first inning results.
The Mets scored at least one run in 39 games in the first inning, not quite one in every four games, (which seems a little low to me), although they only gave up runs in the first in 33 games, so they were better than .500 in that regard.
When they did not score in the first inning (123 games), they finished those games with a 62-61 (.504) record.
When they scored at least one run in the first they finished those games 27-12, or a .692 pace, well above their .549 year-end percentage. It did not matter whether or not the opponent scored in the first inning to attain that winning percentage. In fact, their winning percentage was only .008 higher (21-9 or .700) when the Mets scored in the first and they held the opponent scoreless in that same frame.
When they gave up a run in the first, they were 14-19, or .424, even if they also scored in the first. In fact, if both teams scored at least one run in the first, the Mets ended those games 6-3, much better than the 8-16 (.333) in games they gave up a run in the first and did not score.
When they scored more than one run in the first (15 times), they ended the games at 11-4, or .733.
Addendum: And the extremely good news is that they now have Juan Soto in the line-up with guaranteed at bats in the first inning. Soto in 2024 had an OBP of .455 and OPS of 1.041 in the first inning. To contrast that (add to?) the Mets hitters, Francisco Lindor as a leadoff batter most of the year turned in a .351 OBP and .784 OPS, by far the best of the Mets. Brandon Nimmo’s ugly first inning numbers were just .247 OBP and .456 OPS. Pete Alonso was marginally better at .267 OBP/.665 OPS. The team as a whole in the first inning hit to a BA of just .221, with an OBP of .309 and OPS of .677. Soto should help immensely if the goal is to get off to a better game start so they have a better chance to have the best end result.
Filling in more of those diamonds on the left side of that scorecard means more victory celebrations!
Remember's Reminiscing: February 18 Birthdays
Today we wish a Happy Birthday to Jerry Morales, Kevin Tapani, John Valentin, and Shawn Estes. Two Mets that have passed away were also born on February 18 - one of the two named Bob Miller and Jeff McKnight.
