6/1/21

Jeremy Mand: Could Francisco Alvarez be a MLB Super Star?




New York Mets farmhand Francisco Alvarez is a 19 year old catcher and the team’s #1 prospect. Of course being a #1 prospect does not guarantee future success in the big leagues – just look at Amed Rosario’s career to date, or the likes of Lastings Milledge and Fernando Martinez from a decade ago. 

But Alvarez’s performance in his short minor league career raised eyebrows for me by the sheer magnitude of his dominance. 

I went back and compared his performance to all of the recent top catcher prospects of the 2010s. One thing to note is that there have not been a significant number of top catching prospects over the last decade, the most prominent are Gary Sanchez, Travis d’Aranud, Mike Zunino, Jesus Montero; and more recently Adley Rustchman and Joey Bart, and compared Alvarez to them at similar ages and similar levels. The most prominent catchers of the 2010s, if you exclude Buster Posey, has probably been J.T. Realmuto, and he never made a top 100 prospect list. 

       

Player

Year

League

Age

G

K/BB Rate

BA

OPS

Fransico  Alvarez

2021

Low-A

19

15

2.14

.417

.1213

Joey Bart

2019

Low-A

22

57

0.28

.265

.793

Adley Rustchmann

2019

Low-A

21

12

0.67

.154

.594

J.T. Realmuto

2011

Low-A

20

96

0.33

.287

.801

Salvador Perez

2009

Low-A

19

36

0.40

.189

.466

Keilbert Ruiz

2017

Low-A

19

63

0.60

.317

.795

Willson Contreras

2013

Low-A

21

86

0.39

.248

.742

Gary Sanchez

2011

Low-A

18

82

0.38

.256

.820

Travis d’Arnaud

2009

Low-A

20

126

0.55

.255

.738

Jesus Montero

2008

Low A

19

132

0.45

.326

.868

 

Even with a small sample size, Alvarez’s performance is several degrees of magnitude more impressive than any recent catcher prospect, again, albeit with a small sample size. (There are a few catchers, notably Mike Zunino and Yasmani Grandal, who I left out because they started off at a higher level than Alvarez.)


Even more exciting is when you compare his performance to not just catchers, but to the elite hitters in Major League Baseball, also at a similar age and level. 

Player

Year

League

Pos

Age

G

K/BB Rate

BA

OPS

Fransico Alvarez

2021

Low-A

C

19

15

2.14

.417

.1213

Mike Trout

2010

Low-A

OF

18

81

1.25

.362

.979

Juan Soto

2017

Low-A

OF

18

23

0.88

.360

.950

Francisco Lindor

2012

Low-A

SS

18

122

0.78

.257

.707

Christian Yelich

2011

Low-A

OF

19

122

0.54

.312

.871

Fernando Tatis Jr.

2017

Low-A

SS

18

117

0.60

.281

.910

Ronald Acuna

2016

Low-A

OF

18

55

0.64

.312

.821

Mookie Betts

2013

Low-A

OF

20

76

1.45

.296

.923

Bryce Harper

2011

Low-A

OF

18

72

0.72

.318

.977


Alvarez is still far and away above this elite cohort at a similar stage in their careers, with the caveat, again, that it is over a very short sample size. 

But beyond the small sample sizes, there is a reason he is progressing so quickly. First, he is clearly physically developed well above those in his age group, weighing in at over 230 pounds, and he is dominating to the point where any reasonable person would conclude, there is nothing more for him to prove at that level. He led the league in hard hit %, exit velocity, was clearly being pitched around if you notice his walk rate. 


In his debut at High-A Brooklyn he is already scorching balls at exit velocities more typical of Pete Alonso than of a 19-year old single-a catcher. 





Defensively, Alvarez is considered above average, with a strong arm.

So how soon until we see him in Queens? Some in the organization think he can move quickly because of his performance at the plate, but also because of the intangibles he possesses. According to Minor League Director, Jeremy Barnes, Alvarez’ has  “blown [him] way with these intangible parts of the game, that I feel very confident that he’s going to be able to do it and that he’s currently working on it.”

If he weren’t a catcher, one could argue we could expect in the major leagues by next year; after all most of the elite hitters that I compared him to such as Trout, Soto, Acuna were in the major leagues within a year or two of dominating Low-A, and Alvarez is already in High-A in May of 2021. 

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Tom Brennan - RETURN OF PILLAR, PETE, AND LUGO SHOULD HELP THE METS STAY HOT


Mets' fans always love a potpourri of fill-in players for a while, but it is now time for MANY HAPPY RETURNS.

As I write this, by and large, on Monday morning, it is remarkable to consider that the Mets are 25-20 (now 26-20)  and in first place, despite 5 basic things:

At last count, 4 million trips to the Injured List.

The Law Firm of Almora, Maybin and Lee hitting 3 for 67 with 1 RBI and 33 Ks - quite an extraordinary feat.  I prefer positive hitting stuff like Don Mattingly hitting 10 HRs in 6 games sort of extraordinary stuff myself. Readers will look at the failings of the Law Firm and invariably think, "when I was younger, couldn't I have done that?"  Maybe not, but not a high bar to clear.  

But, I dunno, me, Mack, and John from Albany in our primes?  I think we could pull off 4 for 67 with two RBIs.

The twin mega free agent acquisitions of Francisco Lindor and James McCann breaking out big in game 45 after doing virtually nothing offensively in games 1 through 44. 

Keep the Clearasil away from those two, so their breakouts continue. 

Moribund hitting from Dom Smith (picked up a few last night against the D Ballers) and from Messrs. McNeil and Conforto (when they were playing before joining the injured 4 million).

Waiting until game 45 to have a game with more than 8 runs scored, with 13.  Which sounds like some sort of record to me.  Even the dreadful 1968 offense of the 1968 Mets produced 10 runs on game 28 and 9 runs on game 40.  That team, though, only got as high as 11 runs once.

What's gotten them to 26-20 and first place are five other basic things:

Great starting and pen pitching

(despite the prolonged absence of a few of the 4 million).  # 2 in ERA at 3.09.  Imagine if this team had Baltimore's 5.04 ERA instead.   Did you just shudder to think?  And 3.09 is just a number at some point - stuff like Edwin Diaz's 9 for 9 in saves has been huge.  If Edwin had been shaky, maybe the Mets are 20-25 instead.

The rest of the division has played like garbage.  Going into Monday, the 4 other teams in the Mets' division are a combined 16 games under .500. Who'd a thunk it?

Hitting poorly, but Lindor and McCann have ramped up the the Mets' defense very nicely.

The first line of offensive back ups were quality veterans and it has paid off in spades.  With some of the weak back up players the Mets chose deliberately to stock in past years to try to save a few shekels, this injury blizzard would have crushed the team.  But with quality guys like Villar, Pillar, and Peraza, who could start on some teams, they have come through admirably and prevented team implosion.  Tomas Nido has also proven to be a heck of a back up, now that he has had a chance to rack up some ABs and show he can be an offensive ASSET.  

Patrick Mazeika.   His performance has not been profuse in quantity and quality, but the timing of his heroics cannot be overstated.  I am glad he has had an extended period of collecting MLB pay.  His presence on the team as an available legit 3rd catcher also allowed the Mets to play either Nido or McCann and use the other as a pinch hitter, or use them both in the same game at catcher, or as catcher and first baseman.  

Sent down, but hope to see Mazeika and his Magic back in September, if not sooner.

The Mets, of course, have two potential headwinds: 

First, massive game cancellations leave them with 10 fewer games played than Oakland.  You wanna laugh?  Mets have played 45 games, Jed Lowrie has played 51.  Making up games will tax Mets team resources. 

Second, the offense, despite the 13 run outburst on Saturday, leaves them as 1 of just 4 teams with fewer than 200 runs scored - they are all the way down at 161 runs, in part due to having so many fewer games than the other teams.  (Another strong offensive game Monday night is heartening, but remember: Jake doesn't get to hit every day).

Which brings in the return of three injured players:

Superman - also known as Kevin Pillar - an instant fan favorite.  Who on earth gets a facial injury so severe, needs surgery, and is basically back already?  That's the kind of stuff hockey players do.  SO glad he is on our side.  His return help us fire our Law Firm for incompetence.  And of course, he rifles a hit.  Braveheart Stuff, huh?

Pete - somehow, Mr. Indestructible missed some games, which never happens.  His big bat should help remedy a team malady, whereby it finds itself last in extra base hits - by a lot - despite Saturday's 5 HR barrage.   And it sure did Monday night...Pete lasers are back and functional.  

Seth Lugo - yes, the pitching has been phenomenal - but a pitcher of Lugo's quality returning to the pen can only help, even if primarily to help keep the pen from being overtaxed.  I hear Joe Biden loves overtaxed bullpens, but maybe that's fake news.

And, we'll see how much he'll be used, but OF Mason Williams and his .373/.458/.569 and just 9 Ks in 59 plate appearances in AAA just joined the team (compare those #'s to Law Firm production: Mason Williams (a career .272 hitter) clearly has a pulse, which is a true positive).  And it showed with a hit, walk and a run last night.

Now, besides those 3, the Mets have to figure out how to get the rest of the 4 million walking wounded back.  Or at least some of them.  Soon.  Like Nimmo, Davis, Guillorme.  I know when the season started that I wondered how everyone would get playing time.  Boy, that question sure got answered. Anyway....

 Let's get healthy.  

Let's kick butt.  

Let's win that ring.

Let's Go Mets.

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Mets News and Breakfast Links 6/1/2021

 



Good Morning.  Born Today Dean Chance and Rick Baldwin, Pete Alonso homers in return game and Jacob deGominates, Mets 6 D-Backs 2, Mets make some surprising roster moves, and today is the 9 year Anniversary of Johan Santana’s Mets No Hitter, 

Section Links: Mets Links, MLB Links, Minor League Links, This Day in Mets History and Comments. 

Mets Links: 

Mets 6 Diamondbacks 2 (Box Score): Jonathan Villar 3B 1 for 4, run scored, 1 walk, 2 Ks; Francisco Lindor SS 2 for 5, 2 Ks; Pete Alonso 1B 2 for 5, HR, 4 RBIs, 1 run scored; Dominic Smith LF 2 for 4; James McCann C 0 for 5, 2 Ks; Billy McKinney RF 1 for 4, HR, 1 RBI, 1 run scored; Jose Peraza 2B 2 for 4, 2 runs scored; Mason Williams CF 1 for 3, run scored, 1 walk; Jacob deGrom P 6 innings, 2 hits, 8 Ks; Trevor May 2/3 inning, 3 hits, 1 HR, 2 runs – 1 earned, 1 K; Miguel Castro, 1.1 inning, no runs, 2 hits; Jeurys Familia 1 inning, no runs, 1 hit, 2 Ks; 

NY Post:

Mets.com:






















Tim Healey Newsday: Righthanded reliever Sam McWilliams was designated for assignment. In a month with Triple-A Syracuse, though, Sam McWilliams struggled. He had a 10.80 ERA in seven games, walking eight (and striking out 10) in 8 1/3 innings.

Tom Verducci SI.com: Inside the Mets' Extraordinary Improvement on Defense. “After four straight seasons wasting elite arms with a bottom five defense, the Mets are a top-four defensive team. They have done so by beefing up their analytics department, using more than twice as many shifts as they did last year, and by relying on human connection to get players to buy into cold, hard data. It is a modern baseball success story of marrying information with performance.

SportSpyder Mets Links: 

MLB and NL East Links:

Some of yesterday's MLB Game Highlights:









Here is yesterday's MLB Scoreboard.

MLB.com:

FOX Sports:

MLB Trade Rumors:

Yahoo Sports:

ESPN:

CBS Sports:

Braves.com:

Marlins.com:

Phillies.com:

Nationals.com:

Minor League Baseball:

MiLB.com:

Today in Mets History Per Ultimatemets.com: 

Born on this date:

Transactions:

New York Mets selected Kevin Baez in seventh round of free agent draft on June 1, 1988.

New York Mets selected Preston Wilson in first round (ninth pick overall) of free agent draft on June 1, 1992.

New York Mets selected Dan Murray in 10th round of free agent draft on June 1, 1995.

New York Mets selected Grant Roberts in 11th round of free agent draft on June 1, 1995.

New York Mets selected Nelson Figueroa in 30th round of free agent draft on June 1, 1995.

National Pastime.com: 

1964:     The exhibition game with their Williamsport farm club is rained out, much to the delight of the Mets. Yesterday, the team finished a ten-hour marathon at 11:25 p.m., dropping a twin bill to the Giants, 5-3 and 8-6, which included a 23-inning nightcap.

2012:     Johan Santana, who did not pitch last year because of shoulder surgery performed at the end of the 2010 season, no-hits the Cardinals at Citi Field, 8-0, with the help of third base ump's blown call on a fair ball and an outstanding defensive play by outfielder Mike Baxter. The 33 year-old two-time Cy Young Award winner's 134-pitch effort ends the Mets' streak of over fifty seasons, spanning 8,020 games, without a no-hitter.

Baseball Reference:

1968 - Joe Hoerner of the St. Louis Cardinals ties the National League record for most consecutive strikeouts by a relief pitcher. Horner strikes out the final six batters he faces and earns the win in a 6 - 5 victory over the New York Mets.

2017 - The first-place Brewers defeat the struggling Mets, 2 - 1, behind a strong pitching performance by Chase Anderson who tosses seven scoreless innings. There is an unusual play in the 4th inning: with the bases loaded and one out, Milwaukee's Eric Sogard lifts a pop-up near the third base line. The Mets' batboy tries to get out of the way, taking his chair with him, but in doing so impedes 3B Wilmer Flores' path to the ball. Third base umpire Fieldin Culbreth first calls the batter out, but the umpires reverse themselves after conferring, as there is no provision in the rules for "batboy interference". Manager Terry Collins comes out to argue and is ejected, but he shouldn't have bothered, as Sogard then grounds into an inning-ending double play.
It was nine years ago today that Johan Santana pitched a no hitter.  You can watch the entire gamehere.


If you just want to see the outs you can watch this.


Or just hear the final SNY and WFAN calls watch here.



Newsday: Terry Collins no-no longer regrets leaving Johan Santana in for historic no-hitter.

Newsday: Mike Baxter now is caught up in the pages of Mets history as a key part of Johan Santana's no-hitter.

Centerfield Maz:

Brooklyn Trolley Blogger:


Click here for the full list of Mack's MLB Draft Scouting Reports.    

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Also at Mack's Mets:

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Around the Majors with Mack’s Mets Tuesday 6/1/2021


Here are the top Stories from every Major League team courtesy from our friends at SportSpyder. 

National League, NL East, NL Central, NL West, American League, AL East, AL Central, AL West.

National League:

NL East:

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Braves:

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NL Central:

Cubs:

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NL West:

Dodgers:

Padres:

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American League:

AL East:

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AL Central:

Twins:

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AL West:

A’s:

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