ANGRY MIKE
PETE ALONSO era is over <-> A+
ANGRY MIKE
PETE ALONSO era is over <-> A+
As the advanced metrics evolved and the analysts computed the probabilities of success for those capable of the long ball versus the short ball, baseball’s offensive compensation incentives became very polarized around the home run. For a case in point, look no further than the 2023 season when Jeff McNeil re-tooled his swing for more power despite winning the batting title in the prior season.
With that in mind, the New York Mets went through a fairly significant overhaul in the recent off-season to build a new core that is better positioned to attain the championship that New York fans covet. We were all very clear that David Stearns took a “run prevention” strategy into his re-tool of the roster, but clearly there had to be more variables in the equation than just defense. (They did decide to retain guys like Juan Soto this year).
I took a look at everyone on this year’s 40-man roster and last year’s 40-man roster, and compiled the statistics for everyone that had a major league at-bat.
• The 2025 roster stuck out in 24.3% of their at-bats. The 2026 roster stuck out in 23.1% of their at-bats.
• The two players with the lowest K/AB last season are gone (Azocar and McNeil), but three of the top acquisitions for this season, Bichette, Polanco, and Semien, had better K/AB performance than any of the hold-overs.
• Of the newly acquired players, only Luis Robert Jr. had a K/AB ratio that is not in the top 10.
My conclusion from this analysis, as rudimentary as it sounds, is that good hitting still matters. It is just not the only means to the desired end. Run prevention is essential, whether it comes from good pitching, good defense, or both. But to win, a team must score, and the numbers suggest that this year’s team, while it lacks the total power of last year’s team, still has a better team batting average and a lower K rate. It remains to be seen how this lineup gels and how well the lineup structure facilitates scoring.
What the Mets got in return from the Cincinnati Reds was a very solid pitcher who’d won Rookie of the Year in Pat Zachry, a great glove/no bat infielder in Doug Flynn and two minor league wildcards in outfielders Steve Henderson and Dan Norman. There is no way to suggest that the haul justified pushing out the greatest pitcher in team history, one who would be a first ballot Hall of Famer for frankly a whole lotta nuthin.
This trip down memory lane came to mind when the ridiculous rumor surfaced that the Mets have theoretically a gross overpay in mind to secure the best pitcher in baseball from the Detroit Tigers. Since becoming a regular starting pitcher in 2024 Tarik Skubal has made two All Star teams and won two consecutive Cy Young awards. At age 28 he has a 54-38 career record with a 3.08 ERA, but during this two years as the lead of the Tigers rotation he is 31-10 with a 2.30 ERA while whiffing 469 batters in 387.1 innings. He also exhibited awesome control with just a 1.6 walks per 9 IP. His WHIP for these past two years is just 0.906. There’s no denying his pedigree as the top lefty in the game.
So what is the theoretical asking price? Well, make sure you’re sitting down to absorb the whole enchilada. First to go would be reliever turned starter Clay Holmes. Now it’s understandable that if the Mets add a starter and the Tigers are losing one then they need a solid player to fill that void. However, that’s when it starts getting a bit more dicey. The rest of the package included top pitching prospect Jonah Tong and outfield prospect Carson Benge. Yikes!
Now don’t try to draw a parallel to the owner-spite behind the Tom Seaver trade and instead focus on the deal the club made for Santana. They gave up four solid prospects to obtain one of the best pitchers in the game and given the future metrics from the four sacrificed players the Mets most certainly won that deal by a wide margin.
If the Mets had a starting rotation that included Skubal, Freddy Peralta, Nolan McLean and some combination of David Peterson, Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea it would most certainly help balance out the uneven offensive roster. However, if Skubal deferred long term contract details with his new employer then you have to reconsider if what you gave up is an overpay for potentially just the 2026 season.
Personally, I could go either way. We saw Tong looking very unready for the majors in his rushed promotion last September. We applaud what Benge can bring to the table but he’s more of a high batting average hitter with moderate power than he is a true slugger. We saw Holmes deliver respectable work in his conversion to starter. There’s no guarantee what the Tigers would get long term with any of them, but you almost wish there could be some kind of window to negotiate with Skubal before the deal was made. Then you kind of swallow hard and if you know he’s a long term Met you accept the cost of the deal both in terms of his salary guarantee and the players required to make it happen.
2nd Round
https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/2026/draft/brady-harris-826207
RHP Blake Morningstar
- Wake Forest
6' 4" 230
Scouting grades: Fastball: 55 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 55 |
Cutter: 50 | Changeup: 45 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
Pennsylvania's best high school pitching prospect in 2023,
Morningstar was set on attending Wake Forest. After taking his lumps as a
freshman reliever, he earned All-Atlantic Coast Conference honors as a starter
last spring and pitched for the U.S. Collegiate National Team during the
summer. He showed improved velocity and pitch shapes during fall practice, so
he could make another jump as a junior.
Morningstar operates with six different pitches, including
two- and four-seam fastballs that sit at 92-95 mph and reach 97. His most-used
secondary offering is an upper-80s cutter, though he misses more bats with a
mid-80s slider to which he has worked to add sweep. He lands his low-80s
curveball for strikes and also mixes in a changeup that gets too firm in the
upper 80s.
All of Morningstar's pitches have their moments, though none
grade as truly plus. He has a durable 6-foot-4, 230-pound frame and gets
strikes with his entire repertoire. He profiles as a potential No. 4 starter.
2nd Round
https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/2026/draft/brady-harris-826207
Jake Brown OF, Louisiana State
6' 2" 205
DRAFTED - 2023, 16th (471) - TEX
Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 |
Field: 55 | Overall: 50
Brown rated as Louisiana's top 2023 prep prospect ahead of
fellow left-handed pitcher Kade Anderson, who was recovering from Tommy John
surgery but would go on to become the No. 3 pick in the 2025 Draft after
starring at Louisiana State. Though pro teams preferred Brown on the mound, he
became a full-time outfielder at LSU after turning down the Rangers as a
16th-rounder. He batted a team-high .385 at the College World Series last June
as the Tigers won their eighth national title.
Brown is similar to more famous LSU teammate Derek Curiel in
that both are lefty-swinging hit-over-power outfielders with a chance to play
center field. He uses a smooth stroke to repeatedly barrel balls, though he'll
have to make adjustments against left-handers after hitting .179 against them
in 2025. He has a bit more raw power than Curiel and drives balls to his pull
side more consistently, making him a better bet to provide 20 homers per year.
Brown features solid to plus speed and can steal an occasional base. Though he has played mostly right field for the Tigers and will do so again this year with Curiel in center, some evaluators believe Brown has the quickness and instincts to patrol up the middle. He has a strong arm that delivered fastballs up to 94 mph and bat-missing low-80s sliders in high school.
https://www.mlb.com/milb/prospects/2026/draft/aiden-ruiz-830855
Aiden Ruiz SS, The Stony Brook (NY)
5' 10" 168
COMMITTED - Vanderbilt
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 40 | Run: 55 | Arm: 60 |
Field: 70 | Overall: 50
In 2024, The Stony Brook School from Long Island, New York,
won the 2024 NYSAIS State Championship. In 2025, the school held its own by
going 2-2 at USA Baseball's National High School Invitational. At the center of
it all for the Bears was Ruiz, their shortstop, who then went on to perform at
summer events like the East Coast Professional Showcase and Area Code Games. He
also manned shortstop for Team USA, moving fellow Draft prospect Grady Emerson
to third, and was named to the All-World team as the U.S. brought home gold in
the WBSC U-18 World Cup.
An undersized switch-hitter who is listed at 5-foot-10 and
168 pounds, Ruiz is arguably the best defensive shortstop in the class. He's an
elite defender with a plus arm and range, great hands and outstanding footwork.
Unlike with many young players at the premium position, Ruiz not only makes the
spectacular, acrobatic plays, throwing on the run, he also slows the game down
and makes the routine plays as well. It's future Gold Glove-caliber defense.
An above-average runner whose instincts help him be a
successful base-stealer, Ruiz's bat is behind his glove. He makes a ton of
contact with an idea of what he's doing at the plate, excellent bat control and
no fear, showing an ability to turn around premium velocity. But he's done it
without too much damage or impact to date, and showing some ability to drive
the ball could certainly help the Vanderbilt recruit's Draft stock.
Cole Carlon, LHP, Arizona
State Baseball
The sophomore Sun Devil has seen his fair share of the mound
especially in the 2025 season. In the most recent season, Carlon carried a 3-1
record from the bump and a 3.33 ERA. Through 54 innings of work, the lefty
struck out 86 with 25 walks.
https://www.bleachernation.com/mlb/2026/01/13/mlb-mock-draft-mid-jan/
Zion Rose OF Louisville
2025: One of two Cardinals to start all 66 games (53 in LF,
13 at DH) ... Finished with a .310 average, 16 doubles, three triples and 13
home runs ... Led the Cards with 67 RBIs and scored 64 runs ... Went 31-for-34
in stolen bases ... Ranked fourth in the ACC in stolen bases, fifth in RBIs,
fifth in triples, seventh in runs, 11th in hits and 12th in total bases ...
Started opening night in LF against Texas ... Tallied six hits in three games
on the opening weekend ... Went 5-for-12 with six RBIs and four extra-base
hits, including his first home run of the year against Western Michigan ...
Homered and drove in three in the win over Butler on Feb. 26 ... Hit a two run
homer in the win over North Carolina on March 14 ... Went 3-for-4 with a homer
and three RBIs against Northern Kentucky on March 18 ... Homered and drove in
three against Cal on March 29 ... Hit a two-run homer in the win over WKU on
April 15 ... Stole a career-high four bases in the win over FSU on April 26 ...
Went back-to-back with Lucas Moore in the first inning against Florida State on
April 27 ... Homered in the first inning of each of the first two games at
Notre Dame ... Had three hits, including a homer, and a career high four RBIs
at Georgia Tech on May 9 ... Homered and drove in two against Bellarmine on May
13 ... Went 2-for-4 with a homer against Vanderbilt in the NCAA Regional on May
31 ... Drove in three, including the go-ahead two-run single, against Arizona
on June 15 ... Homered in the win over Oregon State on June 17 at the College
World Series.
Five
Possible 3rd Round Picks - MLB
Jason DeCaro RHP North Carolina
6' 5" 230
Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 50 | Slider: 50 |
Changeup: 55 | Control: 50 | Overall: 45
As a New York high schooler, DeCaro reclassified from the
2024 Draft to '23 and got an early jump on his college career at North
Carolina. He looked like a potential 2026 first-rounder when he cracked the Tar
Heels rotation as a 17-year-old freshman, but scouts aren't sure what to make
of him because his stuff leveled off last spring. His feel for pitching has
allowed him to thrive in college and make the U.S. Collegiate National Team
each of the last two summers.
While DeCaro gets outs, he doesn't miss a lot of bats or
land his secondary pitches in the zone consistently. His fastball has ordinary
velocity (91-94 mph, peak of 97) and shape but generates weak contact. His
low-80s changeup has significant fade that fools hitters, while his tight
low-80s slider and upper-70s curveball are merely average.
DeCaro keeps batters off balance by sequencing his pitches
well and he throws consistent strikes from an upright delivery. Unless he
improves the velocity and quality of his arsenal, he profiles more as a durable
high-floor starter than someone who will pitch in the front half of a rotation.
He's extremely young for a college junior (20 years, three months on Draft day)
but doesn't have a lot of projection remaining in his strong 6-foot-5 frame.
Mason Edwards
LHP, Southern California
6' 2" 190
Scouting grades: Fastball: 50 | Curveball: 55 | Changeup: 55
| Control: 50 | Overall: 45
Edwards is a Los Angeles area native who attended Palisades
High School, earning back-to-back league pitcher of the year honors as well as
consecutive first-team all-city nods in 2022 and 2023. After heading just a
stone’s throw away to Southern Cal for college, the left-hander served as a
swingman type for the Trojans, amassing just over 70 innings combined. A strong
fall showing and the expectation of him potentially leading the weekend
rotation in the spring has the scouting industry’s interest piqued.
In many ways, Edwards fits the prototype of a college lefty
with a feel for pitching. He has a solid three-pitch mix and knows how to use
it effectively. While his fastball typically sits in the 91-93 mph range, he
can touch 95. There is some carry and “darkness” to his heater, leading to a
30-percent miss rate on the pitch in 2025, according to Synergy. He’ll throw
his slurvy breaking ball around 80 mph, and the curve flashes as a plus pitch
with excellent spin. He has good feel for an above-average changeup with good
fade that also can miss bats.
Teams will like that Edwards will just be turning 21
immediately after the Draft. The fact that his strike-throwing has improved
since he got to campus won’t hurt, either, as he showed excellent command
during his work this fall. He has all the ingredients needed to be a solid
starting pitcher. If he can show his stuff can hold up over a full spring in
the rotation, he’ll float up Draft boards.
Andrew Williamson
OF, Central Florida
6' 0" 195
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 |
Field: 50 | Overall: 45
The nephew of long-time big leaguer Sean Rodriguez,
Williamson has been a member of the starting outfield at Central Florida pretty
much since the start of his freshman year in 2024. That first season was fairly
nondescript, but an MVP turn in the wood bat Cal Ripken League that summer led
to a big step forward as a sophomore with the Knights. He finished the 2025
season with an 1.110 OPS, 13 homers and 13 steals, putting him in position to
join former UCF teammate Antonio Jimenez, a third-rounder of the Mets last
year, as an early-round selection.
Williamson is a strong and compact left-handed hitter who
gives off some Alek Thomas or Nate McLouth type vibes. He has the chance to
hit, with some power, showing a solid overall approach that led to small
strikeout and high walk rates in '25. There’s a little hitch in his swing at
the start, with a drop in his hands and a barrel tilt that can affect his
timing, leading some to worry a little bit about his hit tool. But he has a
quick swing with plenty of bat speed, and he’s shown he can get to his solid raw
pop in games, particularly to his pull side.
An above-average runner who didn’t get thrown out in 13
attempts to steal a year ago, Williamson played center as a freshman but moved
to right field last year and is likely to stay in a corner in 2026. He has the
arm to profile well there, but a team interested in taking him could very well
give him the chance to play up the middle, which would raise his profile.
Rookie Shepard
SS, Faith Lutheran (NV)
6' 0" 185
COMMITTED - Miami
Scouting grades: Hit: 50 | Power: 45 | Run: 55 | Arm: 50 |
Field: 50 | Overall: 45
Over the last two years, the Southisene family had a
stranglehold on the “best player from Nevada” mantle, with Tate going in the
first round last year and Ty a fourth-round pick in 2024. In 2026, the baton is
being taken up by another high schooler in Shepard, an athletic infielder who
has jumped on the radar by showing off his skills at MLB events like the
Breakthrough Series and the High School All-American Game, to go along with
showcase stops like Perfect Game National and the Area Code Games.
Listed at 6-foot and 190 pounds, Shepard is a compact and
toolsy left-handed-hitting middle infielder with some thump. He’s shown off
strong bat-to-ball skills with an advanced approach at times, though some
evaluators liked him better as a sophomore than during his junior year, and he
did struggle with some swing-and-miss on secondary stuff over the summer.
Shepard runs well and can steal a base, and his plus
athleticism has allowed him to play a number of positions capably as an
amateur. His arm is probably a little shy to man shortstop long-term at the
next level, but the Miami recruit has good enough hands and actions to stay on
the dirt at second base, while also showing acumen to play center field.
Anthony Murphy
OF, Corona (CA)
6' 0" 190
COMMITTED - Louisiana State
Scouting grades: Hit: 45 | Power: 55 | Run: 55 | Arm: 55 | Field: 60 | Overall: 45
In 2025, California prep power Corona High School saw three
players get taken in the first 32 picks of the Draft. Murphy was arguably the
best offensive performer on the team that saw right-hander Seth Hernandez and
shortstop Billy Carlson go in the top 10 and Brady Ebel go No. 32 overall, with
the outfielder hitting over .400 and slamming 11 homers as a junior. Murphy
raised his profile at MLB Develops events like the Hank Aaron Invitational and
Breakthrough Series, while shining at MLB’s High School All-American Game and
winning a gold medal with Team USA at the WSBC U-18 World Cup in Japan.
A strong, physically mature right-handed-hitting outfielder,
Murphy’s two standout tools are his raw power and his defense. He has at least
plus raw pop and has shown he can get to it in games in high school, but there
are questions about his hit tool moving forward. He likes to change his swing
and fiddle with his setup a lot, and there’s been a good amount of
swing-and-miss and chase as a result, though there’s some conviction that
finding consistency in his mechanics should allow him to find the barrel enough.
A plus runner, Murphy is considered by some area scouts to
be one of the best defensive outfielders they’ve seen in recent memory. He can
play center field and if he slows down and moves to right, he has more than
enough arm for the spot. All of the LSU recruit’s tools play up because of his
full-throttle, hard-nosed play, giving more confidence he’ll maximize his
ability as a pro.
26 - Daviel Hurtado
LHSP 6-1 170
Turns 21 on January 26th
2025 – FCL Mets:
5-STARTS, 1-0, 0.47, 0.64. 19-IP, 25-K
St. Lucie:
13-G, 7-STARTS, 0-2, 2.70, 1.37, 46.2-IP, 50-K
GROK -
Daviel
Hurtado is a promising young left-handed pitcher in the New York Mets' minor
league system.
He's a
Cuban-born prospect, signed by the Mets as an international free agent in
January 2023 at age 19.
Hurtado
started his pro career in the Dominican Summer League (DSL Mets) in 2023, then
progressed through the Florida Complex League (FCL Mets) in 2024-2025, and got
assigned to Single-A St. Lucie Mets (Florida State League) in 2025.
He's shown
solid development, including being named Pitcher of the Month for August 2025
by the Mets and St. Lucie Booster Club.
In lower
levels, he's posted strong strikeout rates (around 9-10 K/9 in samples) with
decent control, and he's been highlighted in Mets minor league recaps for
impressive outings (e.g., low-run allowed stretches in complex league ball).
As a
prospect, he's considered a sleeper or honorable mention type in Mets farm
system rankings (e.g., around 45 OFP grade in some scouting reports), with high
risk but upside due to his youth, athleticism, and room to add strength/muscle.
Pitching
Repertoire:
Fastball: Primary pitch, sitting 91-94 mph, with peaks up to 96 mph
(some earlier reports noted up to 95-98 potential).
It's his go-to offering with good life from
his lefty arm angle.
Curveball: A big, sharp breaker (77-81 mph), often described as a plus
or high-50s grade tool—his best secondary
pitch for generating whiffs and missing bats.
Slider: Complementary breaker (84-88 mph), solid average offering to add
variety against right-handers.
Changeup: Developing (84-87 mph), more of a fringe/40-grade pitch
currently, but part of his mix as he works on it.
He throws
from a three-quarters arm slot with a long arm action, which helps create
deception and arm speed.
Command has
been average to plus in early looks, and the repertoire gives him a classic
lefty starter profile with swing-and-miss potential once he adds velocity and
consistency.
Good Morning –
The Mets continue to
sign baseball players that haven’t been successful at the major league level.
Most have been relief pitchers. This time, it was a veteran catcher.
GROK –
Austin Barnes is a 36-year-old
professional baseball catcher born on December 28, 1989, in Riverside,
California.
He's known primarily for his
long tenure with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Career Highlights
Drafted by the Florida
Marlins in the 9th round of the 2011 MLB Draft out of Arizona State University.
Traded to the Dodgers in
2014 (part of the Dee Gordon/Miguel Rojas deal).
Made his MLB debut with the
Dodgers in 2015.
Served mostly as a backup
catcher, valued for elite defense, pitch framing, game-calling, and veteran
leadership behind the plate.
Key contributor to Dodgers'
World Series wins in 2020 and 2024.
Career MLB stats (through
2025): .223 AVG, 35 HR, 162 RBI, .660 OPS over parts of 11 seasons (mostly
limited playing time batting low in the order).
Nickname: "Sam"
Strong defensive reputation;
offensively, his best year was 2017 (.289 AVG, strong power for a catcher
role).
Recent Updates (as of
January 2026)
He was released by the
Dodgers in May 2025 after a brief stint (13 games, .214 AVG, low power output).
Signed briefly with the San
Francisco Giants' minor league system but was released in August 2025.
Just days ago (late January
2026), the New York Mets signed him to a minor league contract with an
invitation to major league spring training. The deal reportedly includes a $1.5
million base if he makes the roster, plus up to $500K in incentives.
This is a low-risk depth
move for the Mets, likely aiming for his defensive skills and experience as
backup/mentor potential.
MACK –
The job of any back-up
catcher is to provide all-star defense. The offense comes from the starter.
The Mets are lined up
with, what seems, like an endless amount of prospect catchres… Chris Suero, Ronald
Hernandez, Daiverson Guitterrez, Yovanny Rodriguez,
and Josmir
Reyes.
Before the Barnes deal, Kevin Parada would
have been the back-up catcher. Parada catches with a pitchfork. He basically
throws underhand.
As of right now, his
only future is as a DH.
The New York Mets have
signed Grae
Kessinger to a minor league contract.
GROK –
Grae Kessinger is a professional
baseball infielder born on August 25, 1997, in Oxford, Mississippi.
He's 28 years old, stands
6'1", weighs around 204 lbs, bats and throws right-handed, and primarily
plays shortstop (SS), third base (3B), and second base.Family
Background
He's part of a notable
baseball family: Grandson of Don Kessinger, a
longtime MLB shortstop (mainly with the Chicago Cubs) and All-Star. Nephew of Keith Kessinger,
who had a brief MLB stint with the Cincinnati Reds in 1993.
Amateur and College Career
Kessinger was a standout at
Oxford High School in Mississippi. He was drafted by the San Diego Padres in
the 26th round of the 2016 MLB Draft but didn't sign and instead attended the
University of Mississippi (Ole Miss).
At Ole Miss, he excelled as
a shortstop:
In his junior year (2019),
he hit .330 with 18 doubles, 7 home runs, 50 RBIs, and was a key player.
He won the Brooks Wallace
Award (nation's top shortstop).
Earned multiple All-American
honors, First-Team All-SEC, and was a finalist for Mississippi's top college
player award.
Helped the Rebels in
postseason play, including strong showings in regionals and super regionals.
Professional Career
Selected by the Houston
Astros in the 2nd round (68th overall) of the 2019 MLB Draft.
Progressed through the
minors, ranking as a top Astros prospect in the early 2020s.
Made his MLB debut with the
Astros on June 7, 2023.
Appeared in a total of 49
MLB games with Houston across 2023-2024, mostly in a utility role. His MLB
batting stats have been limited and modest (e.g., low averages in small
samples, with a few extra-base hits including his first career home run in
2023).
Spent time bouncing between
the majors and Triple-A (Sugar Land Space Cowboys), with some injuries and
options.
Designated for assignment by
the Astros in late 2024.
Traded to the Arizona
Diamondbacks in January 2025 for a minor-league pitcher.
Played briefly in the
D-backs system (including time on the injured list) before being released in
April 2025 after just 11 games.
As of late January 2026, he
signed a minor league contract with the New York Mets, including an invitation
to major league spring training. This adds infield depth for them, with reports
of a $900K
major-league salary if he makes the roster.
He's known for solid
defensive skills (especially at shortstop, with smooth actions and strong arm
from his scouting days) and some power potential shown in college/minors (over
100 extra-base hits in the minors), though his big-league offensive output has
been limited so far.
Overall, Kessinger is a
versatile infielder with strong pedigree and defensive chops, working his way
toward potentially sticking in the majors again with his new Mets opportunity.
30 of the best prospects
who missed the Top 100 list -- 1 for each team
https://www.mlb.com/news/each-mlb-team-s-best-non-top-100-prospect-2026?partnerID=web_article-share
Mets: Ryan Clifford,
1B/OF
Fellow corner infielder
Jacob Reimer deserves a mention here too as both aren’t far off from Top 100
status. But Clifford's strikeout rate dipped a bit in his age-21 season across
the top two levels of the Minors, helping quiet some of the concerns that he’ll
be a three-true-outcome slugger. He still took a ton of walks and hit for good
pop (29 homers) ahead of his return to Triple-A Syracuse. Clifford could be an
MLB option at first base or the corner outfield spots by the first half,
depending on club need.
MACK – Good
to see that someone other than me thing Clifford can be a factor this season.
Keith Law – Top 100 Mets
Prospects
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6985939/2026/01/26/top-mlb-prospects-2026-keith-law-konnor-griffin/
#72 Jonah Tong
RHP
2025 Ranking: NR
Tong’s MLB debut didn’t go
well, to put it mildly, but in his defense, it was an aggressive assignment for
a player with just nine innings above A-ball coming into 2025, and his season
beyond that was exemplary. Tong led all of minor-league baseball with 179
strikeouts thanks to his very high arm slot and plus extension, which gives his
94-96 mph fastball nearly 20 inches of induced vertical break and generated a
36 percent whiff rate on the pitch in the minors. He pairs it with a changeup
that wouldn’t be plus on its own — it has a little arm-side fade without much
tumble — but plays way up because hitters can’t distinguish between the two
pitches out of his hand, and the fastball rides up much more than they expect
while the changeup doesn’t. He’s very north-south, typical for over-the-top
guys, using a downward-breaking curveball more in the minors, but the Mets are
trying to develop a slider or sweeper he can use to get some more lateral
movement and force hitters to think more in four directions rather than two.
His command and control have improved dramatically, as he walked 22 percent of
batters he faced in 2023 (when he was still throwing 90-92) and cut that to
10.6 percent last year even as his velocity kept increasing. I don’t usually
rank guys with this kind of arm slot anywhere near this high, as the
overwhelming majority of them end up relievers. Tong’s stuff is on another
level, he can get hitters on both sides out, and he’s an elite athlete who has
already shown he can make a ton of adjustments. He should be at least a
mid-rotation starter and could be a No. 2 starter if he finds a suitable
breaking ball to expand his movement profile.
2026 Top 100 Prospects
Thomas Nestico from
TJStats tjstats@substack.com
39) Jonah Tong - P
- NYM
Jonah Tong struck out the
world in 2025 while doing a fantastic job at limiting damage on all his
offerings. His cut-fastball leads the way here thanks to the incredible ride on
the pitch. This season it is averaging ~19” iVB while sitting 94-96 MPH, which
is +2 MPH harder than in 2024. His over-the-top delivery is a massive driver
into its high riding nature. Thanks to his smaller stature and above-average
extension, he is able to get down to a ~6 ft vertical release point. The
combination of massive ride from an unorthodox release aides in its
effectiveness. Tong’s secondaries are a big point of discussion regarding his
future as a starter. He has a wide array of them, including a changeup,
curveball, slider, and a new cutter. The development of his changeup has been
imperative to his success against LHH. It sits in the mid 80s, showcasing good
velocity differential from his fastball. The biggest changes have come in its
shape as it is showcasing a lot more depth as well as his feel of the pitch. He
has been excellent with both its consistency and control, which has pushed it
from a below average offering to plus. His curveball may be his most memorable
pitch thanks to its massive vertical separation from his fastball. It sits at
76-78 MPH and can reach -20” iVB. That is over 3’ of separation from his
fastball! He commands the pitch well, but there are concerns that the massive
drop on the pitch in the mid 70s may not fool Major League hitters. Tong’s
slider and cutter are his least used offerings and for good reason. He doesn’t
have the greatest feel for them, and each exhibit subpar movement traits.
Control still seems to be the biggest hurdle for Tong as he is struggling to
throw strikes and get ahead of batters early in the count. His stuff is
untouchable and his gaudy whiff rates and excellent damage metrics back it up,
however his inability to generate chases keeps his walk rate well below
average. His fastball will make him a stud bullpen arm in a pinch, but he needs
more time to refine its command before being a mainstay in the Mets rotation.
The Mets released RHP Estarlin Escalante and Luis Ortiz