Reese Kaplan -- Can This Bullpen Save the Mets' Playoff Run?

If you asked anyone not living in a cave or under a sizable rock what is the New York Mets’ biggest problem, 99.99% of the people queried would reply, “The bullpen!” 

There is good reason for this disdain for the arms being summoned to support the above average starting staff.  For a short period of time over the first few weeks of the season the teams’ relievers were actually well above average.  Then the kerosene, gasoline and other combustible supplies demonstrated just how bad they could be.  Throw in the injuries, suspensions and multiple DFAs (sometimes more than once in the case of Michael Tonkin), and you will understand why everyone is so incensed over the inability to maintain leads and curtail additional run production.

However, if you do a comparison of all bullpens in Major League Baseball, the Mets are bad but actually in the middle of the pack.  The ERA of the bullpen as a team is 4.12.  Personally I had to read that number multiple times to believe it.  They have saved 28 games.  They are second among all teams in strikeouts and own a well over 3:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  If indeed all of these numbers are accurate then perhaps minor retooling is all that is required.  Let’s take a look at the current corps.

Edwin Diaz is still far from the shutdown reliever we know he’s capable of being and each time he takes the mound since his return from his sticky-stuff sabbatical he has been more good than bad but not quite stellar.  Overall he’s sitting at 3-1 with a dozen saves.  He’s stuck out 39 in 28+ innings pitched and is holding the opposition to a .219 BAA.

Adam Ottavino is having his off year after last year’s on year.   Although he was helpful in the Yankees series in The Bronx, he is sporting a 2-2 record with a 4.91 ERA.  That’s not the level of performance he was expected to have.  His BAA is .230 which is not awful.  He has exhibited excellent control but still falls prey to the stolen base.

Dedniel Nunez came from out of nowhere to begin his Mets career as a 28 year old unheralded rookie but quickly propelled himself into a 7th inning role with his 24 games thus far during which he is 2-0 with a 2.43 ERA.  He is striking out well over 5 times as many as he has walked and keeps opponents flailing away to a .190 BAA.  He’s never been this dominant in the minors and no one knows if he can sustain what he’s doing but he arrived when the team needed him most.

Jose Butto had success in the past as a starting pitcher but somehow found himself on the shelf behind David Peterson and Tylor Megill.  He took on a multi-inning reliever role when he arrived and he’s been sensational.  He’s currently 4-3 with a 2.59 ERA which includes 7 starts to accompany 6 relief appearances.  His BAA is a minuscule .156 and he’s only allowing about 1 baserunner per inning pitched.  

Some want to see Butto as a starter with Christian Scott now on the IL but how do you replace that productivity in the pen?

Jake Diekman was supposed to be a veteran southpaw with the ability to support Brooks Raley as a solid lefty option in the pen.  Raley’s now gone due to injury and Diekman has been almost a batting practice level pitcher.  He isn’t giving up many hits, but a 2-3 record with a 5.10 ERA while giving up 24 walks to accompany 35 strikeouts is not how you get things done. 

The jury’s still out on newcomer Phil Maton but in the 6 games in which he’s appeared the ERA is a very respectable 1.80.  As a veteran he has had ups and downs in his career, but as a 5th or 6th inning guy he’s an acceptable acquisition.

Converted starter Adrian Houser has not exactly established himself as an asset in the beginning of games nor in the middle nor at the end.  Overall he’s sporting an ugly 1-5 record and a 5.84 ERA.

There are others who have been on the Syracuse/Citfield shuttle with varying degrees of success and failure.  On this list you have the likes of Grant Hartwig, Ty Adcock, the aforementioned Michael Tonkin, Cole Sulser, Josh Walker, Yohan Ramirez, Jorge Lopez, Danny Young and others. 

Finally, there’s the IL where Raley, Reed Garrett, Sean Reid-Foley, Drew Smith and others have taken up extended residence. 

Do the Mets need help in the pen?  Most definitely.  Will it come from a frontline closer to pair with Edwin Diaz?  Possibly but likely not.  Instead look to find other setup guys acquired this month to fortify the pen and send some of the AAAA bunch back on an Uber to Syracuse or DFA’d to find employment elsewhere.  Given the short term deals on which some of the relievers were signed for this season and the mediocre track records others have had despite how they performed in 2024 it would appear there is a great need to plan not just for 2024 help but for the future as well.

Tom Brennan: Road Ahead is Favorable Terrain For Torrid NY Mets

"HEY!! THE REMAINING METS SCHEDULE SEEMS TO BE NOT SO DAUNTING"

The Mets entered Thursday's action with 61 games left, a 53-48 record, and winners if 29 of their last 42 games.  Remarkable 42 game stretch when one considers some of the bullpen struggles over those 42 games.

And then, in game # 102, they won a thriller against perhaps 2024's toughest MLB starter this side of Paul Skenes in Chris Sale, 3-2.  Now they who were 24-35 are now 54-48.  Lindor stays blistering with a 2 run blast, and the suddenly scalding Jeff McNeil, a bit unlucky of late, gets a break on a game winning hit misplay in the 10th, as the RF overran his shot to deep right. 

They also seemed to get a break in the 9th on a bang-bang out call on an attempted steal of third, and from a botched Atlanta suicide squeeze in the 10th.  Serendipity.

Jose Butto was magnificent in relief as were Diaz and Maton, the eventual winner. Severino was fine for 6 innings, too, against Braves. (I underestimated Butto, who along with Dedniel Nunez have been terrific. Butto has a BAA of .148 in 52 innings). Dedniel though has bragging rights so far with his 2.43 ERA, ahead of Butto’s 2.44.

They trail the Phillies by "just" 10 games and the Braves by a mere half a game.

And Senga’s 2024 debut is tonight. Casper the Friendly Ghost is psyched.

LET’S LOOK AHEAD…

The schedule ahead looks fairly benign, too, even though most teams are tough opponents who can beat the Mets on any given night.

I subjectively grouped the schedule into 4 categories:

1) Tough teams,  2) Not Easy teams, 3) Not So Hard teams, and 4) Weak teams

1) Tough Teams - 13 games

 - Phillies 7

 - Orioles 3 

 - Brewers 3 (final series of year, and the Brew Crew may have already clinched) 

2) Not Easy Teams (23 games)

 - Braves 6 (injuries to Acuna, Albies, others makes them 24-29 since Acuna hurt)

 - Padres 4

 - Red Sox 3 (left for dead, but the Yanks have allowed Boston back in)

 - Minny 3

 - D Backs 3

 - Reds 3 

 - Cards 1

3) Not So Hard Teams - 6 games

 - Mariners 3 (just acquired Randy Arozarena from the Rays)

 - Blue Jays 3

4) Weak Teams - 18 games

 - White Sox 3 (50 games under, and may threaten the Mets' 40-120 record)

 - Marlins 3 (yes, they are pests but may sell off at deadline, and are 28 under)

 - Rockies 3 (well, they did score 20 in Colorado on Wednesday)

 - A's 3 (improving, but 22 games under .500)

 - Angels 3 (Trout should still be out, and they are 12 under .500. Pillar hitting well)

 - Nats 3 (8 under .500)

Conclusion:

Lousy  teams can get hotter, and good teams can get colder. You have to win, period.

Assuming the Mets bolster their pen and also get Senga and Marte back soon, and effectively, I however do not see why they couldn't go 38-22 (or better) in these last 60 games. That would make them 92-72.  40-20 seems feasible, and would make them 94-68, and if they can win 4 or 5 of the 7 against the Phillies, perhaps that 10 game deficit to the Phillies can be eliminated.  The Mets, however, dug themselves a deep trench when they lost 27 of 39 and free-fell from 12-8 to 24-35.

So the division title remains a long shot, but the Wild Card seems a lock.  They were several games out of the Wild Card, and behind several teams, but after Wednesday are a half game ahead in the Wild Card race and the hottest team in baseball over their last 43 games.

Thoughts?

STRANGE SCHEDULE FOR FCL METS - AND MORE MINORS OBSERVATIONS

So, the Mets just drafted 20 players, are signing most of them and some others, too, adding roughly 20 new players ready to play very shortly - and the only rookie league team, the FCL Mets, has their season schedule wrapping up this week. (Why they don't have a 90 game schedule that stretches to September 1 is beyond me).

I guess some of the new draftees will be assigned to St Lucie, bumping out lesser performers, and all of the FCL players they plan to keep and the draftees not assigned to St Lucie will….scrimmage unofficially?

Anyone have a better read on this than me?  Maybe they don’t want the new guys not assigned to St Lucie to have the pressure of seeing themselves go 2 for 20 with 12 Ks as they adjust?

Strange also is the fact that he Mets had a ton of rainouts they won’t make up. They ended up 23-28 (51 games), while 4 teams played 59 official games.

One individual who impressed after his mid season promotion from the DSL to the FCL was big bonus catcher Daiverson Gutierrez - only 15 FCL games, but he had a .463 OBP and just 4 Ks in 50 plate appearances. The excellent K ratio is eye-popping and has to bode well for the future. 

I wonder if he will be sent back to the DSL or to St Lucie for more playing time.  That strikeout rate would seem to support a St Lucie assignment. 

Also in the FCL, Simon Juan hit 7 HRs, and Jeremy Rodriguez hit .282, but with lots of errors, excusable as he just recently turned 18.

Meanwhile, the DSL teams play on for I believe another 3 weeks. The Mets’ 2 DSL teams entered Thursday action a combined 30-39 with a -54 in net runs scored.

Last night, Joey Lucchesi (5-5, 4.66) got smacked around in a 6-4 Syracuse loss, and one has to wonder if the end (or Korea) is near.  Joander Suarez (5-5, 4.58) tossed several scoreless innings. And Jonah Tong (4-3, 2.55) has hit a speed bump in his last 2 starts for Brooklyn, as they appear to be limiting his pitch counts quite a bit, wisely.  The 4 Mets full season teams compiled just 21 hits, while the winning NY Mets had just 3 hits in 10 innings but managed to win the game that really counts when all is said and done.  

Speaking of speed bumps, Colin Houck in his last 3 games is 1 for 12 with 11 Ks for St Lucie.  Give the lad a few days off?

Reese Kaplan -- Will the Starting Pitching Take Mets to October?

On Wednesday we noted that most of the Mets offense was under performing from career norms yet I oddly find friends who point to the playoff position the Mets are in right now to condemn this conclusion.  Maybe I’m weird not wanting a bunch of sub .250 hitters forming the core (and worse than that with the exception of Jose Iglesias) forming the collection of understudies. 

Today we will look at the starting pitching which is going to get both worse and better almost concurrently.  On the worse side, we all are well aware of the UCL strain which pushed Christian Scott to the IL.  In a way it was not surprising as he went from a dominant level pitcher to rather ordinary and homer prone.  Hopefully the rest is all he needs, but these type of injuries are often precursors to TJS which would dramatically alter the 2025 pitching plans.

Right on his heels as the Mets head into Atlanta is the arrival of last year’s American baseball rookie sensation Kodai Senga.  Most folks are more concerned that he had a bad AAA start than they are impressed with what he did in his previous rehab games.  The important thing to monitor is not how many hits or walks he allowed but the fact that he was pain free and truly will be capable of playing here at the tail end of July and on through the end of September.

Luis Severino has been a mostly very pleasant surprise.  After threatening to eclipse the 7.00 ERA plateau last year his free agent contract at what today is a modest level was puzzling given his poor performance and frequent injury history.  This year he has been able to pitch every 5th day and the results have been encouraging.  He’s made 19 starts, going 7-3 with a respectable 3.58 ERA.  His strikeout numbers are down compared to previous years but the BAA is just .225 which is below his career norm.  Until the recent hot streak the free-agent-to-be looked to be a prime trade away candidate.  Now it appears they are believers and won’t strip the team bare.

Sean Manaea has his on-again/off-again types of performances but right now is turning out to be a good buy as a free agent signing.  Also having made 19 starts, Manaea is 6-4 with a 3.73 ERA and better strikeout numbers than Severino hitting nearly 1 per inning pitched.  His BAA is almost identical at .226.  The club has him on a discounted contract this year due to $2.5 million coming over from San Francisco and the pitcher gets to decide for 2025 if he wants to stay or test the free agent market.  His salary would actually be $1 million lower than his total take for 2024, so it’s possible he may feel that’s insufficient.

David Peterson is hovering between having turned a corner and being the luckiest pitcher alive.  He has made 9 starts since essentially taking the place of Tylor Megill and he’s gone 5-0 with a dazzling 3.14 ERA.  However, before you get champagne and fireworks ready, note that opposing batters are hitting .265 against him, he’s giving up far too many hits and his walk to strikeout ratio is painful.  Take what you can get but remember he’s a guy with a career 4.34 ERA after crossing to 5.03 just last season.  Granted, he was in pain and started this season on the IL recovering, so it may have adversely affected what he was able to deliver.

Jose Quintana started off slowly and badly this year but after a string of decent starts is nearly ready to dip below the 4.00 ERA threshold.  Opponents are hitting .241 off of him but he balances it out with a better than 2:1 strikeout to walk ratio.  At age 35 he’s also a pending free agent. 

Without Scott for a minimum of two weeks the Mets have to decide how they’re going to address the planned 6-man rotation for the balance of the year.  The thought behind it was to give recovering Senga and rookie Scott some extra rest.  If Scott was here then the 6th man would be Senga.  Now, of course, things have changed.

The options immediately available would include Jose Butto who has been a godsend for the beleaguered bullpen.  Removing him from there makes the already porous pen even worse, but he has shown the ability to get people out.

Option two is not too attractive.  It would be a last gasp effort for Tylor Megill to return from Syracuse to play temporary starter.  As a Syracuse Met he’s got a 2.38 ERA though walking too many people and giving up a lot of hits.  The problem is that as a New York Met he pitched to a 5.77 ERA when they finally had seen enough.  The question is whether he’s a dominant AAA player who can’t cut it in the majors or is he ready to employ whatever is working now and mostly in spring training when he returns?

The third alternative would be to acquire another starting pitcher.  This approach might make the most sense with the removal of Butto from the bullpen painful and the return of Megill highly uncertain.  Moreover, with Severino, Quintana and Manaea all possibly gone at year’s end, the club needs to think about fortifying its 2025 roster as well as making a run at October baseball.

Paul Articulates – Let’s talk value

It is very easy in baseball to note current trends and react as if those trends define a player’s value.  There might be a case for instantaneous value, but as we all know the baseball season is long and full of performance variations throughout.  So it may be worthwhile to look at the total picture to date on some of our favorite Mets to determine their value to this team as the trade deadline looms.

Starting Pitchers:  None of the Mets’ starters is going to get a Cy Young vote this year – they have just not put up the numbers, whether you are looking at Wins, ERA, or even K’s.  However, there is value in eating innings and three pitchers have actually performed well in that area despite my protestations that “no one can go more than five innings”.  

Luis Severino has pitched 115.2 innings over these first 100 games of the season which extrapolates to 186.6 for the season.  That is an admirable number of innings and it certainly helps the team.  Joining him in the hundred inning club are Jose Quintana (107.1 innings so far, projects to 173.5 for the season) and Sean Manaea (106 innings so far, projects to 171.7 for the season).  

We could use a few more pitchers with some endurance, as no one else comes close to the 100+ innings logged by this trio.  By the way, since you were probably curious, Severino’s 115.2 innings pitched thus far ties him for 28th among MLB starters.  

As a team, Mets starting pitchers have logged 538 innings through the first 100 games, putting them in the lower half of the league with a rank of 17.  The best in baseball are the Seattle Mariners with 609.1 innings logged by their starters.  The Phillies lead the NL with 590.2 innings.

Relief Pitchers:  There are several ways to measure the value of relief pitchers – certainly saves is a marquee number, but there are many interdependencies with the team’s offense and defense, so I like to measure relievers with WHIP.  Low WHIP is critical for a reliever, because they often come in with runners on base, so the ability to keep batters off base is the most effective trait.  

As  a team, the Mets have a 1.32 WHIP which puts them 22nd among 30 teams.  This is not surprising, as they have had issues with walking batters all year.  Their 165 bases on balls ties them for fifth worst in baseball.  Best on the Mets (at least 30 IP) is Dedniel Nunez with a 0.93 WHIP.  Adrian Houser, Edwin Diaz, Sean Reid-Foley, and Adam Ottavino are better than the team 1.32 average though that does not say much.  

Only Nunez and Diaz are below a 1.2 WHIP which is generally recognized as sufficient.  Note that Jose Butto has a 0.75 WHIP and Phil Maton has a 0.60 WHIP but both have pitched 10 innings or less in relief so far, so they are not included.

Infielders: He may not have been selected to the all-star team, but Francisco Lindor is having a season that many all-stars would envy.  Lindor is so consistent in the field that his defense is taken for granted by most folks but make no mistake about it – this is consistent greatness.  His Outs Above Average (OAA) is in the 97th percentile among major leaguers.  

On the offensive side, Lindor has 21 home runs, 20 stolen bases, and 60 RBIs.  Project that to the end of the 162 game season (and he’ll play them all), and he records 34 homers, 32 steals, and 97 RBI.  

Throw in the intangibles of his leadership on and off the field, his value as a face to the media in all situations, and you have someone that is earning his $32M this year.  None of the other infielders matches this value, but with Vientos’ hitting, McNeil’s defensive versatility, Iglesias’ bat/glove, and Pete’s power this is a group that I am happy to watch.  Speaking of Pete, he is hurting his value heading into his free agent period unless he turns things around .

Outfielders: Harrison Bader has provided the Mets with spark this year.  His glove, his clutch hitting, and his hustle have made him a very strategic acquisition this year.  His ability to hold down center field has given Brandon Nimmo better durability and allowed Tyrone Taylor (another center fielder) to provide tremendous range filling at any outfield position.  I think all three of these players have added value to the team.  

Starling Marte may be an incredibly fast player, but he is also an incredibly slow healer.  He has not earned his $19.5M by sitting on the bench this year.  DJ Stewart has not hit his weight, and is not a particularly skillful defender so his value to the team is only as a DH and with a .181 batting average that value is minimal.

Catchers: Francisco Alvarez has shown all the signs of becoming a MLB star.  Unfortunately, he has not hit well in the last few months so there is not a lot of buzz about him.  However, there is no one better than Alvarez behind the plate for this pitching staff – he makes them better.  

There have been some eye-popping statistics out there that show things like pitchers’ ERA being 2 runs lower with Alvarez behind the plate versus another catcher.  I believe it.  He just needs to produce to his offensive potential to reach star caliber.  As a backup, Luis Torrens gives the Mets everything they need.  

He may not manage the pitching staff like Alvarez, but with a .276 batting average, .845 OPS, and 1.87 second pop time (95th percentile in MLB) he is a welcomed player in the lineup on rest days for Alvarez.

Other: Designated Hitter JD Martinez was acquired by the Mets this year for a very low price compared to his value as a player with a distinguished 14 year career.  His .262/.344/.442 slash line is not what everyone hoped for, but JD provides tremendous value in the clubhouse that goes well beyond his statistics.  

There have been a few stories about his batting tips helping other players improve their performance or break out of slumps.  For every story that gets out, there are probably two that are left unstated.  This guy could be the hitting coach right now if he were not being paid to play.  I’m sure many teams would trade for him but it is not likely that they can match the value the Mets are getting from him.

Tom Brennan: Steamroller; Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is; Verlan-Dough; & More

Mets crush Yanks…5 homers, 2 by Lindor, and Jeff McNeil had 2 hits and just missed also hitting 2 home runs, due to the wind. 12-3 win. Braves lost…Phillies lost….

Now on to my article:

Over-slot Players Get the Biggest Bang For Their Buck, But What Did The Mets Get?

“Put your money where your mouth is” was a phrase often used when I was a kid, that meant are you serious enough about this to lay down a big bet on it?

We will see how the 2024 draft unfolds. 

Last year, from the 2023 draft, a number of draftees in the top 10 got under slotted, saving the Mets money to over-slot others.  

A few players in the first 10 rounds got under-slotted, with a few getting just $50,000, while in the next 10 rounds, and a few in the first 10 rounds, several got considerably more than that.

Let’s look at the 9 over-slots and high bonuses given the rounds selected, as to how they are doing so far (round and pick # indicated for each):

4C (134): A.J. Ewing, HS draftee, 5’11” lefty bat

 - Pick value: $483,000. Bonus: $675,000

 - AJ turns 20 in a few weeks

 - .223/.355/.397 with 71 Ks and 39 BBs in 54 games. 8 of 12 steals.

 - Split 2024 between FCL and A ball

 - Just 7 errors in 54 games at 2B and CF

8 (246): Boston Baro, HS draftee, 6’0” lefty bat

 - Pick value: $192,900.  Bonus: $700,000, a big over-slot

 - Baro turns 20 in a month

 - .271/.355/.384 with just 44 Ks and 29 BBs in 59 games. 5 of 6 steals.

 - All of 2024 in A ball with St Lucy

 - Just 8 errors in 49 games at SS, 2B, and 3B

After I wrote this, he went on fire and jumped to .288/.368/.403.  A good one.

11 (336): Brett Banks, RHP, college, 6’3”. Bonus: $200,000

 - Banks is 22 years old.

- used in relief in 14 games for St Lucie and Brooklyn. 3.14 ERA, 14 Ks

- Out since early June with an unspecified injury. 

13 (396): Ben Simon, RHP, college, 5’11”. Bonus: $150,000

 - 16 outings for Brooklyn, 26 IP, a K per inning, 4.21 ERA

 - 8 innings in July, 2 hits, no runs, 6 Ks

14 (426): John Valle, RHP, HS, 6’3”. Bonus: $150,000

 - Injured and out all of 2024 (TJS?)

 - Age 19, has not yet pitched in any games

15 (456): Justin Lawson, RHP, college, 6’3”. Bonus: $125,000

 - 23 years old.

- 0-2, 3.54 for Brooklyn. 40 Ks in 37 IP.

16 (486): Jake Zitella, 3B, HS, 6’0”, righty hitter. Bonus: $200,000

- 19 years old

- playing in FCL: .251/.355/.367 in 45 games.

- 1B and 3B, just 4 errors, all at 3B

17 (516): Bryce Jenkins, RHP, Tennessee. Bonus: $180,000

- 22 years old, 5 games, 4 Ks, in 2023

- Out the full season of 2024. (TJS?)

20 (606): Kellum Clark, OF, college, 6’3” lefty hitter. Bonus: $150,000

 - 23 years old.

- Said to have decent power, which hasn’t shown up yet.

- Walks a ton.

-  Red hot start to July in Brooklyn. Very quiet bat before July.

Conclusion: 

Too early to conclude, but out of all of the over-slots, the most over-slotted, Boston Baro, has played the best so far.  Perhaps, at this stage, he is the player out of these 9 most likely to make the majors in a major way.

Maybe another look-see at season’s end on these guys.

Of the 5 over-slot pitchers, 3 of the 5 are missing major amounts of time due to unspecified injuries.

VERLAN-DOUGH

The Mets as a result of 2023 trade terms still owed Justin Verlander $17.5 million of his $35 million option if it were to automatically kick in for 2025  - to do so, he would have to reach 140 innings.  He won't.  

After missing time early in 2024, he was only up to 57 innings before he got hurt in June.  He's missed several weeks. 

On July 19, he was starting to throw, based on this update I saw:

July 19: RHP Justin Verlander to throw 2nd bullpen session; 

Verlander, who's not with the team on its West Coast road trip, will throw his second bullpen session on Saturday, targeting 20-25 pitches. Verlander returned to the mound Sunday for the first time since he pitched June 9 and subsequently landed on the injured list with neck discomfort.

- With that sort of update, one would think the earliest he will return is around the 110 game mark, and that would be very aggressive.  If he stayed healthy then, he'd get perhaps 10 starts to add 83 innings.  8.3 innings per start. Which no one does these days. And they obviously want him 100% ready for the playoffs so, like the Mets not rushing Senga, the Astros won't rush JV, nor will they load him up with innings.

So, it looks like the Mets are off the hook for that $17.5 million option, which will immensely help them in terms of the amount of luxury tax for 2025, and any impact on future drafts beyond 2025. 

JUST FOR YOU TO CHEW ON:

McNeil on road this year? .273/.325/.473. Not shabby.

McNeil at home this year? .180/.244/.248. Guys get released for that.

Speedy Dudes Like Nick Morabito Give Opposing Teams Indigestion

ROADRUNNER:

Nick Morabito has 41 steals already this year, to go along with his .300+ average and .400+ OBP. 

And plenty of games left to get those steals up to 60+.

“ME MEEP!”

HOUCK QUINTUPLET

2023 Mets 1st rounder Colin Houck in St Lucie Wednesday: 0-5 with 5 Ks.  

He now has 131 Ks in 81 games. Wow, that’s a lot.

The Mets in 2023 slipped 10 picks down from # 22 due to overspending. 

The actual # 22 pick, Colt Emerson, has hit .326 in his pro career so far.

It’s very early in he careers of both. But still:

Penalties can cost you.

Tom Brennan: Hunting For Big Game; Tanks SPanked; Scott Not; And Much More

 

Elmer says, "Sufferin' Succotash, if the Mets are gonna have a real shot in 2025, they need Soto."

Steve Cohen will be hunting for big game this off season.

So let me bring up a few things with Alonso vs. Soto:

First, Alonso is 4 years older than Soto.

Second, Pete has hit about .227 in 2023-24 combined.  

Soto hits like crazy and gets on base almost like Bonds.

Third? Runners in scoring position.

Pete? .211 in 116 times up, just 3 HRs and just 31 RBIs.  (95 at bats)

Soto? In 91 times up, walked/HBP 20 times. In the other 71 times up he is hitting .400 with FIFTY RBI’S!

In a binary choice situation, the choice is clear…

SOTO SOTO SOTO.

My brother Steve endorses this message. He's wanted Soto since 2019.

Get Soto this offseason, win the battle of NY.  Case closed.

Team budget would mean "Sayonara, Pete."

METS BEAT YANKS, 3-2

The Mets tied it mid-game at 1-1, and Nimmo barely missed a grand slam that would have broke it open. But Jeff McNeil the HR hitter nailed a 2 run shot, his 8th, to secure the Mets win. Diekman shook off his recent woes to secure a clutch 9th inning save, including a caught looking on Aaron Judge.

The Mets finally get Jackie Bradley Junior:

The Mets sometimes avoid bad moves. A few years back, lots of Mets fans wanted JBJ, since LBJ was no longer available.

The Brewers grabbed him back then instead for big bucks.  He unfortunately for them hit like Keon Broxton.

This year, he played for the LI Ducks and slashed a menacing .400/.476/.727 in 40 games. Which by no means infers he can hit MLB pitching. 

SNY noted that the 34-year-old was in the middle of a 28-game hitting streak, during which Bradley was hitting .471 with a .537 OBP.

The glove whiz just signed with AAA Syracuse. On the cheap, no doubt. 

Whaddya think?

SCOTT NOT

Christian Scott is not…healthy….and is not…pitching.

A sprained UCL.  Good grief.

No career wins from the early season phenom.

BATY SNAPS OUT OF IT

2 HRs, 2 doubles for Syracuse last night. Call him up.  Hand DJ Stewart a suitcase.

Eric Orze, meanwhile, was excellent in 2 perfect relief innings. 3 Ks, 18 of 22 pitches for strikes.  Has to be back soon, if he keeps that up.

Drew Gilbert 1 for 5 in his AAA return. 

With Jackie B joining Syracuse and Gilbert arriving, the Syracuse outfield seems to be awfully crowded.

I would demote Rhylan Thomas to AA to ensure he plays daily, and demote .181 Consuegra or release .201 Jaylen Palmer to make room. His 260 Ks in 170 games in 2023-24 makes him a very unlikely future major leaguer.  

Alternative: 

Release Yolmer Sanchez and leave Thomas in AAA.  Sanchez is hitting just .218, BUT .433 in 10 games in July.  He was hitting .180 at the end of June. Decent MLB career, but he is 32. 

Nick Morabito 2 hits, a walk, and another steal for Brooklyn in a 3-1 win.

What might a full season for the recently turned 21 year old righty hitting Nick look like? 

Well in 2023 and 2024, 523 at bats, .308, 20 doubles, 6 triples, 5 HRs, 91 runs, 60 of 74 in steals, 78 walks vs. 119 Ks. 

Looks pretty good to me.  And remember, he plays in the Brooklyn hell hole where, in 90 PAs this year, he is hitting .241 with 3 doubles and 3 RBIs, which depresses his season numbers.  Away from Sing Sing, and in the sweet air of the road, he is hitting a far superior .302/.385/.396 in the SAL in 166 PAs.  I'd get his speedy butt to Binghamton ASAP.

CAN WE ROTATE DIVISIONS?

It seems like every year, the Braves, or the Phillies, or (some years back) the Nats would be scorching and almost impossible to catch.

But almost every year, there are one or more divisions where the Mets' outlook would be extraordinarily different.

The Mets trail the Phillies (who are 27 games over .500) by 11.5 games.  The Phillies have assumed the Braves' recent annual mantle of "top 2 win-loss record in baseball."  The Phillies actually have the best record in the majors right now.

If the Mets, however, were in the AL West, they'd be in first place by a half game. 

Put my Mets team in the AL West, or Al Central, or NL Central, any year and the Mets would be in the playoffs a whole lot more.  Geography is meaningless.  Rotate.

BEFORE AND AFTER

Shintaro Fujinami debuted straight from Japan last year.  It was ugly.

He had an 8.57 ERA with Oakland and 4.85 ERA with Baltimore, so in 79 innings, that added up to a 7.18 ERA.  

David Stearns liked his fastball and signed him despite of that.

Fuji got delayed getting to spring training. He should have delayed more.

He pitched briefly and very badly and got sent down,

In spring and minors ball through early May, his pitching was a car wreck.  

Combined, 10.1 IP, 11 hits, 18 walks, 21 runs, 13 Ks.  

He probably hit a few batters too, for good measure.

He got shut down for injury(?) reasons, and since he began his rehab in late June, he has thrown 6 IP, allowed just 1 hit, 1 run, 4 walks (3 in his lone wild outing out of his 5 or 6) and racked up 5 Ks.

I had wondered if the Mets might call him up soon.  

The answer has to be "only if exceedingly desperate" after going back over that March through May horror show record of his.  

However, if he can continue his recent run of success, perhaps another 6 innings of 1 hit, one run ball with strong control, a call to the Mets could happen in a day and age where pitchers get hurt every 5 minutes, give or take.

Have a blessed day.  Keep your broom handy.

Reese Kaplan -- Is This Offense Ready for October Games?

While the Mets continue to play .500 baseball, let’s take a look at the team as it exists now pre-deadline for July trades taking place. 

Everyone is aware of the offense that has been working most of the the time save for the early part of this Marlins series.  It’s not perfect, of course.  Pete Alonso has looked almost lost when men are on base.  His batting average has dipped below .240 and that’s with a multi hit game in Miami. 

Francisco Alvarez has progressed significantly with his defensive game.  He is has seemingly turned the corner from a diamond in the rough to a genuine precious stone when he’s calling the games behind the plate.  His offense, however, was looking totally lost at the end of the Marlins series with multiple strikeouts and poor swings taken at many pitches. 

Francisco Lindor started off the year looking completely lost.  It was not a mere 2-3 week slump.  It was more like 2+ months.  Now he’s hitting regularly and slowly the batting average is rising.  He appears in the worlds of the award winning Mets broadcasters well on his way to a second straight 30-30 season. 

Mark Vientos kind of had some at-bats recently where he appeared less disciplined than he had been at the top of his hot streak, but it never seems to progress for more than a few ABs in a row and not for long periods of time.  Of course, getting beaned and then missing the Monday game gives him some necessary time to regroup (or in a worst case scenario, to become maladjusted to inside pitches). 

Brandon Nimmo has seemed to cool off quite a bit recently but the overall run production numbers are enviable.  What is a little off is his batting average and some have questioned if the quest for the long ball has had a detrimental effect on his contact hitting. 

Harrison Bader has continued to hit well above his norm with long balls, contact and base running speed.  His defense continues to shine as one of the best in the game.  Most importantly he has stayed healthy.  Many are wondering if maybe he needs to be a part of the new core of players for 2025 and not just a one-and-done scenario. 

Jeff McNeil has been stellar and much more confident looking in the brief period since the All Star break.  He’s still hitting more like a .220 hitter than a .300 hitter, but the three home runs and six RBIs against the Marlins suggests he may have finally taken the concept of hitting the ball hard to heart rather than simply hitting ‘em where they ain’t.

Jose Iglesias continues to demonstrate not only the slick defense for which he is well known but a much more productive bat.  Luis Torrens continues to show why he’s a superior catching backup option to others who have tried and failed in that role.

J.D. Martinez has been better as a mentor for hitters than an All Star himself.  He is another in that one-and-done contract category.  Given his modest $12 million salary on the way towards theoretically possible Cooperstown recognition.   

Unfortunately, that’s where the offense pretty much stops.  Yes, D.J. Stewart got a few hits for the first time in what seems like weeks but that is the exception, not the rule.  Tyrone Taylor has been inconsistent with the bat.  Ben Gamel is on the team mostly because Starling Marte is not. 

The conclusion here is that there is certainly room for improvement from the starting players and a significant need to improve the bench.  Word has filtered out that the Mets are not actively shopping Pete Alonso, so the offensive improvements are likely in the form of polish and not wholesale reconstruction. 

Friday we will examine the pitching under the same lens.

SAVAGE VIEWS – THE ROLLER COASTER

It’s Monday evening as I write this and the Mets are preparing to take on the Marlins with the hope of splitting the four game series. 

Thus far, they have scored the grand sum of seven runs against the worst team in the NL. Make no mistake about it, the Marlins are a bad team but they have out hit and out pitched us.

The solution tonight is to find a way to get DJ Stewart into the lineup at the expense of sitting Mark Vientos. Now the middle of the lineup will feature the struggling Pete Alonso, JD Martinez and Stewart. 

I’m a pretty old guy and have trouble remembering the last time Alonso had a meaningful game. If he was playing up to standards he would have hit north of 30 homers and 75 RBIs by now. 

Clearly, he is well off that mark and there are no signs he will be surging anytime soon.

JD Martinez is the guy I did not want us to sign. My impression is that he is a wonderful clubhouse presence and a great teammate who is no longer an impactful player.  His at-bats have been difficult to watch. 

He’s been striking out at an alarming rate – around 35%, more often when runners are in scoring position and otherwise not being productive. He had a brief spell when he went on a tear but has cooled off over the last few weeks.

I have difficulty understanding the continuous desire to get DJ Stewart ABs. He has been below the Mendoza line all season long while better and more productive players get benched in his favor. Makes no sense at all. The same holds true for Tyrone Taylor.  He’s another guy who should be glued to the bench.

What ever happened to the power bat of Alvarez. I can only guess that the injury to his thumb has not fully healed. His hard hit rate has declined precipitously. On the other hand, Jeff McNeil looks as though he is trending in the right direction. Jeff has a history of performing better after the All-Star break.

It’s time our pitching staff puts on their big-boy pants. Manaea and Scott failed to do their jobs this weekend. When Scott was first called up, he impressed as a starter who would go deep in games while keeping his OB% low. That seems to have changed and his control has declined. Maybe, our expectations have been too high and he’s not ready for prime time.

Everyone agrees that our bullpen needs help. I’m worried we will overpay to bring in fresh arms. The answer may lay within. Megill and Vasil could possibly be the two arms that will carry the day. One way to find out.

Will we be buyers or sellers. The next ten days will determine which direction to go.

Ray

July 23, 2024