Soft Phacts

A New Start

At the end of May I packed it in for my old blog. It just seemed that there were 40,000 Met blogs out there and that I was contributing the vast white noise of the blog-o-sphere rather than presenting a new point of view. Fact was, there were tons of blogs and MOST were better than mine. One of the blogs that I became so enamored with, was Mack's Mets. So I am considerably thrilled to be offered the opportunity to become a contributing writer for the blog. What can you expect? A lighthearted and optimistic view of the Mets with several helpings of snark, for good measure. Which leads us to the purpose for my inaugural post.

Soft Phacts: We've all watched enough CSI and Law and Order episodes to know that you can't put the bad guy away on a hunch. Well... I've watched enough minor leaguers fizzle to know that you can't project major league success on a single season. That can't stop me from putting on the rose colored glasses and pretending that everything will break perfectly.

Matt Harvey - When Matt Harvey was listed as the #2 prospect for the Mets going into 2011... I was skeptical. I'd seen too many high draft picks struggle out of the gate to project someone that high without him throwing a single inning in pro baseball. He then proceeded to make me look dumb, by blowing through the A+ league like it was populated by nutrition-starved preschoolers. Harvey struck out 92 in 76 innings and zipped his way up to AA in a flash.

AA... was a little less kind. Harvey skidded out of the gate with some iffy results in his first 3 AA starts but he's clamped down on the bleeding and has looked sharp in the following 3. His most recent start has my irrational brain thinking about Harvey's potential 2012 impact. This illustrates how willing I am to ignore the reality that Harvey still has plenty of work and would be best served by spending as much time as possible (in 2012) in the minors.

Phlavio's Rose Colored Glasses: 2012, September Call-up... 2013, Rotational Candidate in Spring Training

Jenrry Mejia - When Dan Warthen says, "Mejia might be headed to the bullpen." Is it rational to want to go to Warthen's house and give him a piece of your mind? Probably not, but I never claimed to be rational. Mejia is a starter until he proves that he can't be. Thus far... he's not done that. Thus far he was mis-handled by the Omar Minaya regime and suffered a couple of typical injuries. He'll be out for the first part of 2012 but... let's focus on the positives.

Mejia is filthy. Notice the order of players on this mini list? I think Jenrry is a better pitcher than the MUCH more highly touted Zack Wheeler. For one... he's closer to the majors and for another... he's been more successful in the pros. Though to be fair... he projects as a #2 pitcher or worse while Wheeler still has "Ace" potential. I'll ignore that for now and say that Mejia still feels like the more likely to succeed.

Phlavio's Rose Colored Glasses: 2012, Mid-Season Call-up... 2013, Rotational Regular

Zack Wheeler - Wheeler has not hit the ground running the same way that Harvey has, but lets remember that his STUFF...might be a tick above Matt's. Fact remains that Wheeler is not only a better pitcher than Carlos Beltran and 13 years younger... he's also 3 inches taller which is really important for stuff like... getting onto roller coasters. His 2011 has been fine. Nothing to worry about but it's clear to me why Harvey was so successful where Wheeler has struggled.

Somewhere between the pre-draft rankings and the start to 2011... Matt Harvey learned to throw his secondary pitches for strikes. Wheeler isn't there yet but he has the rest of 2011 to figure it out. That's right... 2011, I don't wait for people to "develop" I assume that my need for immediate gratification will be acknowledged and accommodated by every minor leaguer in the Met system. All Wheeler needs to do is learn to throw his curve for strikes and develop a useful change-up... in a matter of weeks.

Phlavio's Rose Colored Glasses: 2012, AA Pitcher... 2013, Long Look in Spring Training and a Mid-Season Call-up.

Jeurys Familia - Why does Familia get lost in the discussion of arms for me? It's not logical: He's had an arguably better year than Harvey, Mejia or Wheeler. It's not racial: At least... I don't think it is. Perhaps it's spiritual? For whatever reason I just don't see Familia as such an immediate success as Harvey or Mejia and I don't think he has the stuff of Wheeler. It could really just be the lime green backdrop to his photo. Frankly, he might have the best chance of being the first one of the group to make an MLB impact.

While Harvey was more impressive with K's in A+ baseball what was Famila doing? He was only preventing anyone from making meaningful contact with his pitches. His A+ WHIP was UNREAL. He got a deserving promotion to AA where he's been solid and consistently K-ing players with more regularity. If I was truly honest with myself I'd expect he'd be the first of the bunch in the majors. I'm just not so good at this self-honesty thing.

Phlavio's Rose Colored Glasses: 2012, Mid/Early Promotion to AAA, 2013, Rotational Candidate in Spring Training.

Generation 2K: The memory of Generation K is pretty lingering. As if a part of it is still with us... creepy. Why would we be quick to label a new bunch of prospects under a similar moniker to that dreadfully disappointing bunch? For one simple reason... WE ARE EXCITED. We are excited about a crop of pitching talent in the farm system that the Mets have not seen SINCE the days when Jason, Paul and Bill were still young kids with un-tapped potential. I just have to hope that this excitement doesn't ware off when I take these rosy specs off. The good news is: The DNA evidence, motive and plausibility match my hunch. Now all I need is a pair of sunglasses and song intro by The Who.