Okay... the Jason Bay move got us all a little excited about next year, and rumors that there's more to come soon via trades... but, here's the question...
Before we go breaking this team down, shouldn't we go back to the point I've been preaching about for two years?
Isn't 2014 the year we should be targeting, meaning, when you evaluate possible additions (Melky) or subtractions (Dickey) shouldn't the deciding factor be how important will this person be to the Mets in 2014 and beyond?
25 comments:
Mack,my feeling with the minya era was that payroll was in the 140s. What he and the weapons should have done was have a payroll of about 133 or so and the other 10th million put into the farm system. If that would have been done every year the team wouldn't have this bad for the last several years. Do u agree?
I meant wilpons not weapons
Sounds good, but when Omar got here, they sucked. He was trying to win quick. Listen, after Steve Phillips got fired, Jim Duquette was handed the team and told to cut salary. He did, but also tried to build with younger, inexpensive players like Kaz Matsui and Mike Camerone. They didn't win, he was fired pretty quickly. Omar, for some reason, was given a blank check and was able to get whoever he wanted. That paid off short term, but intimately the team is still suffering for it. This new approach, forced on the team through the Wilpons financial mess, will probably pay off in the long run as long as they draft well and that's not a given.
2014 will tell the most. Do they actually have a plan.
Mack,
Mets depsperately need to be competitive in 2013. I just don't see them going from 70 to 90+ wins just bacause the free up some cash and Harvey/Wheeler are a year older. Shit happens. They need to be as good as possible in 2013 without sacrificing 2014. And, they better nto trade RA just for the sake of it...they better get a boatload back for him. While his is no lock over the next 3 years, no pitchers are a lock. He is still a pretty good bet to provide very good SP over that time 2013 - 2015. Alderson needs to go get a CF that can leadoff for the next 2-3 years not named Andre Torres, and real closer that can close in 2013 and possibly beyond. Add a pfroessional RH catcher, not an AAAA guy, re-sign HAirston, and they can be both respectible in 2013 and poised for 2014. Again, don't deal Niese or Dickey unless the return is essentially overwhelming - 2 MLB pieces that can contribute for several years at an above average level.
Anon:
This team would do extremely well with a payroll in the $130-140mil range, mainly due to the home grown talent that has developed at the minimum salary level.
On paper, this team needs two outfielders, one full time catcher, and some relief help. That could all be accomplished in the range you have set.
Charles:
I've been critical of Omar, but I give him one thing. He added a considerable amount of talent through the International signings he made though his time.
TP:
I might have confused you.
The additional 10 wins I talked about with a full year of Wheeler and Harvey will be, in my opinion, in 2014.
The team can not be playoff competitive in 2013 with it's current roster plus a $100mil ceiling. It just can't. The total talent vs. who's on other teams just doesn't work.
There are things this team can do to insure a successful 2014... now... and in 2013.
1. The shifting of Bay money isn't completed. There is money being freed up here and the Mets will walk away, either through a trade of FA, with a decent CF or LF for the future. Mark my word. It will happen.
2. I love RA Dickey, but at 38, he offers me no long term future as a rotation pitcher. He can immediately bring aboard two more needs: another full time outfielder, a full time catcher, and a young rotation prospect.
3. The off-season of 2013-2014 and the reduction of payroll from Bay-Santana-Francisco will give the Mets the monies needed to fill in the cracks which will include getting a real closer.
IMO, you need to enjoy 2013, but it's 3rd place at best.
That being said, 2014 will be the year.
I got a trade Ida for y'all!
Jonathan Niese to the Red Sox for Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Garin Cecchini, Jackie Bradley, Bryce Brentz, and a good PTBNL (Ranaudo PLZ)
This trade is EXTREMELY RISKY. But has the potential to solve many of the Mets issues and could make them a contender in 2014-15.
What do you guys think?
YOU SHOULD BE A GM!
Jones, there's no way Boston does that. However, i could see them trading some of those pieces for Dickey. Boston loves those knuckle ballers. That package would give up far too much for Boston to pull that trigger.
I could see them doing Salty and Bradlwy plus a PTBNL, for RA.
However, if the Mets get that blown away for either RA or Niese, you must do that deal.
Mark my words...I'll say it again...Mark my words, RA will be traded for the outfield help they need. Hopefully, they get a catcher too, but I'll take any deal that gives the Mets a legit, young, 30/90 RH outfielder plus another good piece in any trade for RA. Like Mack said, he's 38 and I am not breaking up Harvey, Wheeler, and Niese unless someone gives me at least 4 major pieces in a Niese deal.
That trio could be the Mets version of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz over the next 10 yrs.
Niese will bring more value than Dickey. The team that acquires Dickey will not have him locked up. It's a 1 yr rental. Niese is locked up.
Dickey to Texas for Olt and Martin
Texas needs pitching and Olt is blocked by Beltre for years. Martin is OF#1.
Wright and $$ to Arizona for Eaton and Skaggs/Bauer. Arizona wants an upgrade at 3rd and the cash will make this deal great for both. Eaton is OF#2.
Now we only need a catcher or will Thole be good enough?
C Thole
1 Davis
2 Murphy
3 Olt
SS Tejada
OF1 Eaton
OF2 Martin
OF3 Duda??
Rotation of Harvey, Santana, Niese, Gee and Skaggs/Bauer.
Not a good trade. You should be able to get a lot more for both! And why the hell would you trade both? I don't know if you caught tHe memo but wright isn't getting traded. Trade Niese instead of.dickey!
I think that the Mets will improve somewhat in 2013 but we will not see a large jump in wins until 2014. By then, the rotation should consist of Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, Gee, and maybe someone like Montero or Fulmer taking over for a veteran half-way through the season. Another option is that Sandy could sign a decent starter with the money coming off of the books. I would imagine that Sandy could add a bat in the outfield too with the extra money coming off of the books.
By 2014, prospects such as Wilmer Flores, Matt Den Dekker and Kirk should be in the majors or traded and you should know what type of players they are. The same goes with Duda and Ike. In addition, if all breaks right, Nimmo should be in AA and hopefully pushing for a call up.
If the Mets decide to trade Dickey, hopefully they can acquire some impact players in the outfield and behind the plate. If they could get a nice bullpen arm too, that would help. I think the bullpen will be a strength by 2014 with Parnell, Edgin, Koralek, Familia, Mejia all viable options and all having major league experience.
Of course there is a lot of things breaking right for the Mets but with some shrewd signings this offseason, prospect development and a trade or two to infuse impact talent into the roster, 2014 could be very exciting for the Mets.
Mack,
I would reluctantly deal Dickey but they need to get 2 pieces that are MLB ready in 2013 by end of season. I sm not dealing Niese unless blown away...agree with Charles. $110 mil in 2013 and they have a puncher's chance. Rotation will be solid if Santana is decent. That oney should but decent closer, ok RH C, CF/leadoff hitter via trade (Span or Fowler) not including Niese, Wheeler, Dickey. IF the get that done, I could live with Hairston platooning in either LF or RF, with Kirk and Dude getting most ABs. That's a 2013 team I could watch with expectations of 2014 and beyond as well.
wow... I go out to Walmart and we've traded away the whole team...
where do I start...
Salty is being shopped openly and is available to the Mets NOW, but Boston is not going to package 4-5 players for either Dickey or Niese.
Boston's needs are different than most teams. They need to get in the playoffs next year... period, and Dickey would be the better choice for them.
I can see a trade of Dickey for Salty + one prospect, hopefully an OFer like JBJ.
I would do it today. Salty gives you 20+ home runs behind the plate and your 3-4-5-6 (without a new outfielder) is Wright, Davis, Salty, Duda.
If I do this trade, I'm done trading SPs. You only can trade one of these guys.
Niese offers a better (and cheaper) long term rotation... 2014 would be Harvey, Wheeler, Niese, and Gee... while some of the college juniors (Pill, Verrett) would be ready to jump in with Gorski. They could hold the 2014 fort down until Fulmer and Montero mature.
Trade Dickey... keep Niese
Anon,
Sorry but trading Niese is ridiculous. He's a certainty in the number 3 starting role on a good team, any good team. Dickey is great, he's proven it, but at 38 you just don't know. The reason Niese is so valuable to the Mets is be aide he's locked up and cheap, they are not getting that type of pitcher for that money, he must be kept!!!
What Niese has become is a late first round dream if you're drafting late and he was a 7th rounder or something. You enjoy those guys and keep the homegrowns if you can. Dickey is like finding a 100 dollar bill in the street and buying a winning lottery ticket with it.
Dickey will never be more valuable and he's willing and ready to sign an extension. That helps because whoever trades for him is most likely a win now team and would give up more for the good quality innings he'll provide.
Now, I don't know other teams systems. But there's got to be a team who believes a 5 million dollar current Cy young winner is right up their alley. He'll give you 200 quality innings, maybe even great innings if his last three years means anything. Go and get yourself those two great players that'll play in Queens for the next 10 years.
You guys are nuts. Why would you trade a Cy Young award winner. Keep him and trade your number 4 starter Niese. The Dickey trade aint gonna get you fair value.
Mets fans.....
Shaking my HEAD
TRADE NIESE!
Dickey's value is in trading him, that's the funny thing.
Let’s spend a little time with the Red Sox.
They have three things to do in the next 11 months… clean out their 40-man, get rid of at least one bad contract, and make the World Series.
Boston is another town where making the playoffs just isn’t good enough.
Trading for Jarrod Saltalamacchia isn’t as simple as it sounds. He’s a free agent in 2014 and you could easily wind up with a one year catcher. The deal only makes sense if the Mets sit down and pound out a 3-4 year deal for his services so they can put this position out of play in the organization.
The second player you would want in this deal would be a prospect outfielder like Bryce Brentz, or Jackie Bradley Jr. Jacob Ellsbury is not available. There are only five outfielders on the 40-man (Ellsbury, Ryan Kalish, Daniel Nava, Jerry Sands, Ryan Sweeney) so there isn’t an excess here for the Sox to deal with.
No, their excess on their current 40-man (whatever that is because all of the 40-man squads on the official websites are a mess) are 23 pitchers.
It’s obvious that we’d like to get an outfielder in this deal, but that might be obtainable with the deferred Bay money. Instead, there is an opportunity here to steal a young pitcher, like Rubby de la Rosa, or Andrew Miller.
Well, there you go. I really don't know other teams prospects or their depth charts, but the Mets FO does.
They go to the GM meetings and maybe 5 teams give Sandy a wink and say, " call me about Dickey when we get back" or " I need a good starter and we like some of your guys, give me a call". Then, Sandy doing due diligence, figures out if even trading any of these guys is worth it.
My thought, is that there are a lot of good, deep systems out there. Some of them have parent teams who need a legit number 1 or 2 starter. Those pitchers are like gold and ones making only 5 million next year are diamonds. Dickey, even if he isn't great again will certainly give you 200+ food quality innings. It's as close to a given with him because if his pitch. They all know that and that's why trading him is hard on the Mets and also a no brainer.
Dickey is going to fix at least one outfield problem, maybe two. Maybe one outfield spot and a catcher. Maybe both and then some. Maybe a team dangles a great catching prospect and a great middle infielder. Who knows? I think it's a mistake with this low payroll to not sell high. Every team working within a small budget does it, we're just not use to it. It's how you keep winning while staying within the constraints of a crappy owner's guidelines.
What about the heresy of trading Zack Wheeler for another team's equally untouchable prospect who swings the bat?
In the Majors the conventional wisdom is you never trade a good position player for a good pitcher since the position player can help you every day, not just once every five days. However, does that still apply when there's no track record in the majors yet?
For example, if you were to get offered Taveras from St. Louis or Myers from KC or D'Arnaud from Toronto, would you be tempted to pull the trigger on moving Wheeler?
Actually no and the reason is because Wheeler is going to be surrounded by pitchers who also give the team a great chance to win. A great starting pitcher can win a game all by himself. A great rotation can win the World Series, just look at San Fran.
If he was the only one, I might see the logic, you could try to bash your way through games with just decent pitching. But in 2015....
Wheeler
Harvey
Niese
Gee
Fulmer
Montero
Mazzoni
Gorski
Familia
Mejia
Pick the best five. That is a great rotation and bullpen. Yes there's a chance it doesn't work out, but that position player might not either.
Wheeler wpuld never be trades.
The Mets are going to bult this tteam around pitching and it all starts with Wheeler and Harvey
Mack,
Right on, brother, you said it all right there. It's all about pitching. Always has been, always will. Again, unless Mets are blown away, Niese stays put, and so does Dickey. Unless Toronto or Seattle want to deal their top catching prospects plus a plug in OF, sorry. SF Giants just won the WS with no power, no OF. One big bat. Pitching and D.
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