I’ve gone back and
forth on the question for ‘The War Room’ today.
It originally was going
to be about the Florida-Toronto fiasco and just how much are fans supposed to
be asked to help fund a stadium that they have to not only pay to get in, but
also park next to.
But that’s old news.
What’s relevant this
morning is how little ‘our’ team continues to do to improve themselves in the
future while others, like Toronto and the Dodgers, keep investing in their
‘business’ to make it viable.
I will say this. No one
in the Mets organization has lied about what direction they will go in this off
season. They said they weren’t going to spend more than $100mil on payroll and
it sure looks like they are headed in that direction.
You know me. I think
the Mets have the rotation in 2014 to make a run for it. I also think there is
nothing than can or will do to make that happen in 2013. So, should we stop
speculating and not sound like the myriad amount of other beat writers and
bloggers out there that keep complaining about the lack of signings/trades?
And, is it a waste of time to keep coming up with trade possibilities that are
just pipe dreams at this point?
The 2013 rotation (with
RA Dickey) will rank up there with one of the
best in the National League. The addition of Zack
Wheeler will only make it better. Josh Edgin and
Elvin Ramirez will get another year under their
belt while Jeurys Familia and Jenrry Mejia will hopefully mature either in Las Vegas
of Flushing. Bobby Parnell will get a legitimate
opportunity to close and Jeremy Hefner and Colin McHugh could add needed depth in the bullpen.
In the minors, Wilmer Flores will get a shot to show us if he can
step into 3B for the Mets in 2014. Reese Havens will
also hopefully return to hitting the way everyone in the organization knows he
can and could possibly offer an alternative to Daniel
Murphy on second. And a bunch of outfielders (Kirk
Nieuwehuis, Matt den Dekker, Cory Vaughn, Cesar Puello, Darrell Cecilliani)
have another year to cut back on their K/AB ratio and add both to their
slugging percentage and OPS.
And then, the real good
news happens. Both Johan Santana and Frank Francisco’s money comes off the books. The new
TV deal adds $50mil to the bottom line, and the Mets will be able to compete in
the free agent market with the rest of the league.
So really, the plan has
never changed. It’s just we, the writers out there that keep trying to change
the rules.
The question: Isn’t the New York Mets correctly targeted to
2014 and isn’t everything coming out of Queens confirming that?
28 comments:
I am happy that the Mets are trying to build superior pitching depth - we have seen the Giants win 2 World Series with crazy pitching depth - hopefully we can manage both the pitching and a slightly more interesting offense. But I think that it will be tough to keep the faith if both 2013 and 2014 look the same as the last couple of years.
I think 2014 will be surprisingly different. There will be considerable money to compete in the FA market.
Additionally, if pitchers like Verrett, Pill, and Gorsky develop, there will be major trade bait to fill in the positions needed.
I agree with you that 2013 is going to be a hard time for the basic fans to understand what is happenning here.
Harvey, wheeler, Niese, gee, dickey, Montero, Fulmer, familia, mejia....
Pick 5, number one through 5 based on ability, and then start building bullpen.
I can only see trading Dickey because of his age and peak value.
This does leave the Mets with a bunch of secondary quality arms to deal with: Gorski, Mazzoni, Verret, Pill.
And a stable of even better arms in Gnoa, Mateo, Lara, etc....basically Brooklyn's rotation which Sandy singled out as trade bait.
I think Sandy stated he wanted resolution to the contract extensions with Wright and Dickey not only to verify their trade options, but Wilmer Flores' and one of the pitchers in my first group as well.
Seeing the deal Melky recieved, a player most sites said would go for a reasonable one year contract, has shown everybody that the Mets will not be players in any quality free agent outfielders. This makes trading a priority if he was sincere in upgrading the outfield for 2013.
Am I happy? No. I'm not.
I understand the Mets situation unlike a lot of people. There are folks out there who are constantly blaming Alderson for the Mets' failure. I see this as ignorance. Remember "Moneyball with money"...this FO knew the Mets had issues, but the extent of their money trouble has been crippling.
Add the debt to untradeable and underperforming players who make up 1/3 of the budget and you have a team stuck in neutral. It's like a hangover, time is the only cure. People are so quick to point out that Sandy's claim to fame is in finding undervalued players. Well, I'd argue that those players who were considered undervalued in the game years ago have attributes that in today's game that wouldn't make them undervalued anymore. The game has caught up to the Moneyball way. Those players are not there to be found as easily and every team is looking for them now.
Time...next season brings a freed up payroll. Niese is the only one signed past this season and the Mets should be able to legitimately put a great team on the field.
I, unlike Mack, don't see the 50 million in new tv money helping the Mets. They'll take that cash and pay off further debts like always. Funny thing though, if the Mets could get that much cash from MLB selling off the TV rights, how much more are the mets receiving from having their own sports network? It's amazing...
With the quality of arms we have down on the farm i say stay the course and don't trade them away.look at the giants and Tampa bay there always in the race because of pitching with not great offense.
Charles and Greg:
I agree about the pitching, but Charles.. you can't speculate too far in the future.
Right now, the Mets have 6 viable starters (counting Wheeler) and 2 backups (Hefner and McHugh).
There are anywhere from 8-12 other starters in the system that have really impressed at the level they pitched last year, but that's a long way from success.
I added a comment hear earlier but it didn't post so I'm repeating myself...
I too am not happy because I want resolution of the Dickey and Wright matter. I no longer care what the result is. I'll be happy if the stay or I will love writing about the new guys a trade would bring to this team.
Past that, I want one $6-9mil outfielder to start the rebuilding of those three positions.
I dont know what to do with wright and dickey. first i preffered to trade dickey but as the time goes by it really doesnt matter to me what is going to happen. i just hope it happens soon! Im really annoyed
I think one thing that will help out in 2013 is if they have another draft like 2011 where they sign a number of players that we can be excited about - unlike 2012 where there feels like there are more utility type players than anything....
Kevin, I think there will be another great draft because an extra team (GCL) needs players.
And I am not happy, yet. Time to get the Wright/Dickey extention/trade behind us.
There's a lot of hypocracy going around these days in MLB. The AL manager of the year Bob Melvin won & the experts, that would be the BBWAA, accredit that to Billy Bean who traded away key players during the season yet Melvin clawed the A's to the playoffs. The hypocracy with that is Beane was named Executive of the year by the same 'experts'.
Then you have the Florida debacle that the commish is 'reviewing'. The commish, a former owner of a major league team. That's like Obama hiring Romney to negotiate a budget deal with congress.
Then you have the Wilpons. One day you read they're as broke as a loaf of Wonder bread and the next day, they're ready to open the books for Wright & Dickey.
Gone are the days of transparency. Everything is a cloud stuck in a fog covered by a haze when all we want as fans is to eat our frigging Twinkie and cheer on our team...not worry about who gets paid what and how long.
#Blamebeltran
Anon:
Yeah... I'm exactly where youu are right now.
I honestly don't care. I just want it done.
Kevin:
So far, the DePo-Sandy era of drafting has been nothing to write home about. It's all been about trying to sign high schoolers under slot and, this last draft was complete mystery to me. I do this stuff for a living and I didn't know half these players.
Matt Harvey was the last impact draft pick the Mets chose.
They've had so many opportunities to make things right so quickly since then, and haven't. Case in point, the next pick after the Mets chose their first pick was OF Courtney Hawkins who will haunt toe Mets for 15 years.
Jonah:
You can't have a great draft unless the Mets spend the money on the picks. They won't spend them now, so why would you think they will come June?
Also, this is a very weak draft past the second round.
Joe Spector:
Thank you for visiting, Joe.
I assume by the tone of what you write that no, you are not happy :)
We know nothing.
We only have to mmake one decision... wait and write about what happens when it happens, or speculate about something that probably will never happen so we can attract people to read us.
The ONLY reason Wright and Dickey MIGHT get extended is because Johan's contract comes off the books after 2013. If he was signed through 2014, this team gets completely ripped apart.
Saving that 30 million allows then to give David near 20 and RA near 10...which = 30 million.
All that crap about them being on a better financial foundation is all lies, designed to make fans feel as if they have cash, and all these decisions a baseball related. They're not. How else do you explain mailing in an entire draft(2012), or keeping this team at a crippling payroll.
If they really want to win by 2014, they'll have no choice but to spend on free agency next year or trade their two biggest stars this year. Because there are zero legit outfield or catching prospect ready to step in and make a positive offensive impact until 2015. And that's only if Nimmo and Vaugn are ready.
I think that the Mets need to stay the course. They have been patient for this long, there is no need to get be rash. Let the arms develop and add to the team in the small ways it can to improve. I think David Wright needs to be resigned because a bunch of young players without a leader and a face, especially in New York could be problematic.
Dickey, on the other hand, is another story in my opinion. I was thrilled and proud that he won the CY Young as a Met and I would love to resign him to a two or three year deal. If some team offered an upper echelon, major league ready package, I would have to think you have to pull the trigger. The Mets need an infusion of offensive talent and there just is not much in the pipeline. I am still hesitant to trade Niese because he is younger, affordable, and a lefty but if the right offer came along, I would not be opposed to moving him too.
I think the Mets need to stay the course and trust in player development and once the players are developed, make moves to fill other holes.
Mack -
I'm not really disappointed as much as I am disillusioned. No one knows what's going on financially with the Wilpons save those who are intimately in the know. Be it a writer for the Washington Post or a blogger - it's a bs and speculation and all it does is show how hypocritical people can be and move on like nothing they said in the past was ever said.
We have writers who've in past all but filed the bankruptcy papers for the Wilpons who are now extolling their solvency. It's a total 180 and it reeks. Sure it brings people to read the papers (do people still do that?) or the blogs but in the end it just makes the writers lose credibility in my opinion.
The evidence will come in the form of whether or not Wright and/or Dickey are signed. So far, "real" offers have been made so to speak, unlike with whatever Reyes and his people say.
Only time will tell. Patience may not sell copy or get blog hits but at least the writer can keep his/her integrity. That's all that's left in the end.
Joe, I've alwys found the off season a test of our Mets patience.
Hey Joe,
<--- Not this writer. All that bankruptcy BS was just that, BS. I tried like hell to put down each report everyday I saw one, and must have written at least 30-40 posts telling our readers the Wilpons will be fine.
Not that I like the Wilpons, but all that nonsense especially the book Wilpon's Folly, was just a mountain of misinformation.
My intent was not to defend Wilpon, it was to ask all his detractors for a smoking gun or some evidence to prove the claims they were making.
As for where we stand now, the Wilpons are getting back to health as I expected them to. And they are now about to make their third baseman the highest paid player in franchise history. The re-opened the minor league affiliate in the Gulf Coast. Payroll will be close to $120 million this season. The All Star Game sponsorships are pouring in. And CRG did their job - which was to turn the red arrows back into black arrows pointing up.
Joe D:
Your lips to God's ears.
The $120mil payroll you states in interesting... this would definitely mean there would be a different outfield out there...
Joe D
120 million is news to me and possibly even Sandy Alderson... Do I doubt you? Kind of, yes. I would love to know how you came to that number and I'm not trying to start an argument. We've all heard Sandy state that payroll would remain around 100 million.
Also, I've read those 30-40 posts of yours trying to inform/ give your opinion that the Wilpons would be fine. There's also been 30-40 saying Sandy has sat on his hands and done nothing to make this team competitive. That a younger more progressive GM would have done more for this team.
My question is how do you expect him to do anything positive when payroll has been relatively handicapping the team due to 1/3 of it being spent on unproductive, unmovable contracts. To me, nothing short of trading their top prospects could help them now, but that screws up their future. Trades like the one the Red Socks pulled off to clear payroll only worked because the packages had production in them. Bay? Santana? Just what do you expect unless Sandy throws a Davis or Niese into the deal?
I've asked you to reply on your site, perhaps here you might instead. Again, just a friendly question here, I can agree to disagree.
Joe D -
You were never one of those who claimed the Wilpons were on death's doorstop. That was all Megdal and his "reporting". I just think we're all a bit culpable for flaming the fire some and that was in part because of our collective despair the team has given us over the last few years.
I always wanted the Wilpons to right the ship, not sell the team for the sake of it. Fred Wilpon isn't Jeffrey Loria or Frank McCourt. Things COULD be worse. That doesn't mean we walk around oblivious to everything but I agree with you Joe and Mack, things are slowly getting better.
Yes losing Reyes hurt but they weren't going to commit that many years to him, it wasn't entirely the money and Loria wooed Reyes the first night he was officially a free agent. So in his eyes Loria really really really wanted him. Didn't turn out quite like team Reyes planned I bet. But things are getting better, just at a snails place.
Joe Specter:
After Charles' comments, I expect Joe D won't be back....
Shame... he came as a favor to me
Wow...I think twice, I said i wasn't asking to be argumentative. Just curious. Is that wrong in the "war room"?
Hi Mack. Good job reeling in the errant fan base back into reality.
It's really about managing expectations. I consider 2012 a success, despite the sub .500 finish. Wright had a bounce-back season, Johan pitched our first no-hitter and Dickey won the Cy Young.
Dan Murphy improved over the course of the season at 2nd base, Ruben Tejada was very steady, if not spectacular and Ike Davis emerged from an horrific start to produce 30/90. Kirk showed some promise, but needs work, which is normal.
As for the pitching, hot dang! The aforementioned achievements combined with the emergence of Matt Harvey and ever improving Bobby Parnell are 2 reasons to be cheerful. The bullpen, despite its challenges, showed promise with the infusion of young arms toward the season's end.
Yup, 2014. Until then, I have no expectations and will enjoy watching our team perform their best.
- TOMMY2CAT
Charles:
argumentative is fine, but it sounded a little bit stalking... maybe a 'hello, how are you' first...
Tommy2Cat:
Hey... this might be the first time you and I agree on anything :)
Ok. I'm sorry.
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