Mack Ade – Feb 1 Pre-Season Draft
Trends
Everything’s about to come full
circle for both the high school seniors and college juniors that are eligible
for the June draft. The high school kids will continue to try and come up with
ways to showcase themselves while the college guys will stand by the results of
their upcoming season.
There will be factors though. First,
the injuries will begin to drop players into later rounds. Stanford’s A.J. Vanegas has already fell out of the first round
due to back problems he began to suffer from in the last Cape Cod season.
Remember
when TCU’s Matt Purke was the odds on favorite
for the first pick before his arm went lame? What about LSU’s Anthony Ranaudo who was going to be the first overall
pick in 2010 but then went down with an elbow injury. Shit happens in this game
and injures are shit to baseball.
This has been a quiet “off-season”.
Most of the mock drafts being created now are only one round and, frankly,
everyone seems to be using the same pool of around 70 players to determine the
top 32. We are; however, beginning to see some trends that will be interesting
if they continue.
In no particular order:
1.
Stanford RHP Mark
Appel is quietly dropping out of the top five picks. This could a combination
of factors. Some may just be of writing the same name first all the time.
Others aren’t that thrilled with his agent and influences their mocks with
non-playing factors like that. I happen to think that Appel is the most
talented RHP in this year’s draft, but I’d probably pass on him so I could get
more bang for my buck. The new limits placed on signing bonuses are not
agent-friendly, especially for guys like Scott
Boras.
2.
There are only six sure fired first
round RHPs this year, the lowest I remember since I started doing this. Most
years have six in the first ten picks. I’m sure there will be more, but, right
now, the weath is spread around.
3.
St. Pius X HS (TX) Kohl Stewart has leveled off in the mid-first round,
Arkansas’ Ryne Stanek has taken over the lead
dog RHP and Florida’s Jonathan Crawford has
slowly grown to a projected top ten pick.
4.
No one has benefited more from a
great showcase season than Tray HS (CA) LHP Jonah
Wesely, who wasn’t even on the map when his junior year ended. At least
one third of the past two month’s mocks have him as a late first round pick.
5.
Three months ago, half of the people
picking Chrysler HS (MI) Trey Ball had him
listed first as an outfielder. Now, he is 100% projected as a LHP and has
solidly become one of the top eight picks.
6.
The ‘mock’ season started with
everyone a little catcher crazy. Early projections had up to six going in the
first round, many being some of the very talented members of the high school
class of 2012. That being said, everyone has now agreed that only two, Kentwood
HS (WA) Reese McGuire, and Yukon HS (OK) Jonathan Denny, are guaranteed first round picks. Past
that, only Mater Dei HS (CA) Jeremy Martinez has
a chance, though he’s currently trending down.
7.
Serra HS (CA) 1B Dominic Smith is
trending way up and now looks to be a guaranteed first round pick. One mock has
him 4th overall. Normally, teams don’t look to pick first basemen in
the first round; however New Mexico’s D J Peterson is
trending up and could also go this early (half project Peterson as a 3Bman).
8.
Speaking of third base, pundits are
starting to project San Diego’s Kris Bryant as
an outfielder, a position I believe he has never played an inning as.
9.
Trending up big time is James Madison
HS (VA) SS-OF Andy McGuire, which began once
everyone was sure he was once again healthy. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him
taken as the second SS, after Gaither HS (FL) Oscar
Mercado.
10.
This will be a big time outfielder draft with
up to nine going in the first 31 picks. Hottest uptrend right now is Samford’s Phillip Ervin and Mater Academy William Abreu.
11.
Down trending is Stanford OF Austin Wilson who some are whispering has some work
related issues.
No comments:
Post a Comment