Mack's Morning Report - 10-2 - Pipeline Position Analysis - SP

Red - Top Prospects
Blue - Intermediate prospects



We're going to look at starters a little different that we did with position players.

We are only going to continue to predict the ones that are either considered to be genuine prospects, or players that pitched like one this past season.

There is a shite-load of more starters that pitched this year that didn't make my list. The list is especially long due to all the injured players that created slot openings. Some may hand around next year but the one thing you will dramatically see here is the deepness of starter talent that is once again in this organization.

The secret here is to use 2018 to let the walking wounded heal properly, and keep the innings down throughout the season on all these guys.

You keep 80% of these guys off the DL and we'll win a bunch of games - 


MLB - Mets

  Locks - on my team, Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom are slam dunks to make my opening day rotation.

No one else is.

Robert Gsellman, Matt Harvey, Seth Lugo, Steven Matz, Rafael Montero, Tyler Pill, and Zack Wheeler will fight for the other three slots. Three will make it.

In a perfect world, four Binghamton starters deserve to open up in Vegas next spring, so there might only be room for one of these guys to open up in the Vegas rotation.

On my team, it would be Flexen to get his head on straight again after a horrendous experiment to send him to Flushing.

The rest may be fighting for a pen opening that already looks better for next year.

Me? 

I cut fish with the Dud Knight, give Matz, Montero, and Wheeler first shot at the rotation, and send Gsellman, and Lugo to the Mets pen. Pill goes back to Vegas to await a phonecall. 

Here's where my starters would line up on opening day - 

AAA - Las Vegas

   RHP Chris Flexen - 23/yrs. old - 2017 B-Mets: 7-starts, 6-1, 1.66, 0.72, 48.2-IP, 50-K, only 7-BB - I give Chris all the kudos in the world for his effort this year. He was sailing away in Binghamton with a 6-1, 1.66 record in Binghamton when he got the call to come to Flushing and help out when it seemed like the entire Mets rotation went down. It didn't work out (though there were a couple of flashes there...). He needs a second chance, but let's first let him work on lowering that 7+ ERA in the PCL.

RHP Corey Oswalt - 24/yrs old - 7th Rd. 2012 - Boy, what a great season! 24-starts, 2.28, 1.18. Was 7-1, 1.29 in his last 10 games. A lock for Vegas and maybe even Flushing by the All-Star break.

  RHP Marcos Molina - 22/yrs old - 2017 St. Lucie/B-Mets: 18-G, 17-starts, 5-10, 3.22. His sub-4 ERA proves that he didn't get the run support that other starters got this past season. Molina has electric talent that still needs to be harnessed.

  RHP P.J. Conlon - 23/yrs. old - 28-G, 22-ST, 8-9, 3.38 - the lefty is now 20-12, 2.35 in 69 minor league games, 45 of which he started.

  RHP Tyler Pill - 27/yrs. old - 13-starts, 4-3, 3.47 - was called upon to pitch seven games (3-ST) for the Mets this past season (5.32). Pitched better than some of the seasoned veterans. 


AA - Binghamton -    

 Justin Dunn - had another difficult season with an end of the season stat line of 95.1-IP, 75-K, 101-H, 53-ER, 5.00, ,752 OPS allowed. I'm not going to give up on this guy yet. He'd be my SP1 in Binghamton on opening day. A+ - 

  Jordan Humphries - 21/yrs old - finished 2017 on the DL - was 10-1 in 11-ST for Columbia and posted the lowest ERA (1.42) in the SALLY before being promoted to St. Lucie. Started only two games here before he was put on the DL and had TJS. Pray for this guy. He's the real deal... but may be out for the entire 2018 season. 

  Harol Gonzalez - 22/yrs. old - another guy that looks like he may have what it takes. Started 23 games for Columbia and St. Lucie in 2017 and posted 9-9, 3.53.

 Nabil Crismatt - 22/yrs. old - had a half way decent season for an 'almost' prospect... 142.2-IP, 143-K, 85-R, 37-BB, .759 OPS allowed.

 Mickey Jannis - 29/yrs. old - 21-starts, 8-7, 3.60. Yes, he's 29 but he throws a knuckle ball. 

  Andrew Church - 22/yrs. old - Rd. 2/2013 - 17/StL: 25-starts, 12-8, 4.62 - simply wasn't a consistent starter all season. The Humphries injury creates a need for an SP5 until one of our red chips in St. Lucie is ready. After that, I send Church to the pen.
  

St. Lucie -  

LHP Thomas Szapucki - 21/yrs. old - ended season on the DL (TJS) - fireballer threw 86 strikeouts in 52 innings for two teams in 2016. Was off to a good start this past season in Columbia (6-starts, 1-2, 2.79, 1.17) before going down. Most pundits rank him in the top five Mets prospects. Could be perfect trade bait when he becomes fully healed. Easily my SP1 in St. Lucie when ready.

  LHP Anthony Kay  - 22/yrs old - 1st Rd,/206 - Hasn't thrown a professional pitch yet due to TJS surgery just after he inked his deal (nice deal if you can get it...).  He's be 23 in 2018 so I have him starting at this level, sandwiched between all the other chip starters here.

  RHP David Peterson - 22/yrs old - 1st Rd/2017 - 17 BRK: 3-starts, 3.2-IP, 2.45, 1.36 - Same slow start the Mets used with Justin Dunn. I have a similar jump here to St. Lucie for the spring. This is going to be quite the rotation.   

  Thomas McIlraith -   23/yrs old - Rd. 20/2015 - Darkhorse find. Spent parts of 2017 on three teams due to injures, promotions, and rehabbing: 17/StL: 4-starts, 2.22, 1.11. Should be 100% come spring. 

  LHP Blake Taylor - 22/yrs old - Finished the season on the disabled list. Second round money brings him back even after a very disappointing season this past season in Columbia (18-G, 17-starts, 1-9, 4.94, 1.54). 


RHP Scarlyn Reyes - 27/yrs old - pitched in Binghamton for 23 games last season, 20 of which were as a reliever (4.02). Was sent back to St. Lucie to be converted to a starter (6-starts, 1-2, 5.76). My fill in until McIlraith is 100%, then I send Reyes to the pen.

 RHP Yeizo Campos -  21/yrs. old - my SP5 until Szapucki comes back.


Columbia - 

Columbia had wonderful rotation starters last year to get them off to a great start. There will be no red chips on the 2018 opening day rotation - 

I'm picking six, keeping one in reserve in the pen - 

  Jose Carlos Medina - 21/yrs. old - IFA - two teams in 2017 - Brklyn-Col: 14-Games, 12-starts, 2-6, 3.27, only 47K in  74.1-IP

  Nicolas Debora - 23/yrs old - IFA - played exclusively for Brooklyn in 2017 - 14-G, 7-starts 1-4, 2.33, 56-K in 54-IP.

  Colin Holderman - 21/rs old - Rd. 9/2016 - seven starts before a season ending injury. 2-3, 4.94, 1.13, 31-K in 25-IP

  Gary Cornish - 23/yrs old,  19th Rd./2016 - Another starter who had his 2016 season cut short from injuries- 17/Col: 5-starts, 1-3, 3.07, 1.19

  Chase Ingram - 22/yrs. old -  6th Rd./2015 - pitched for four teams (GCL/ StL/ BRK/ COL) and wound up at season end of the DL (probably from jet lag): 10-G, 8-starts, 2-4, 4.34, 1.47 (25-BB in 37.1-IP)     

  Chris Viall - 21/yrs. old -  6th Rd./2016 - 17/BKN: 9-G, 5-ST, 3.42, 1.18

I've seen enough of 26-year old Justin Brantley (5.18), Darwin Ramos (2-3, 4.81), Gabriel Llanes (6-11, 4.48) and Martin Anderson (0-5, 6.89) 


Low-A - Brooklyn - 

I also will pick six pitchers here since all the injured reserved moves last years cause for more guys to show their skills. It may take the first moth of the season to work out a five man rotation.

  Christian James - 19/yrs. old - Rd. 14/2016 - Showed flashes in Kingsport last season. 11-starts, 2-3, 4.18, 58-K in 51.2-IP

  Carlos Hernandez - 22/yrs. old - IFA - 17/KNG: 12-G/11-ST, 3-3, 4.62

  Jose Geraldo - 22/yrs. old - IFA - 17/KNG and BKN: 14-starts, 4-4, 3.78

  Briam Campusano - 21/yrs. old. -IFA - pleasant find - 4 teams in 2017 - GCL/StL/KNG/BKN:  13-G, 9-ST, 2-6, 2.89, 1.09, 63-K, 65.1-IP

 Gunnar Kines -  24/yrs old. -  36th Rd/2015 - converted reliever - 7-G, 3-ST,  3-ER in last 22-IP , 2-2, 3.00, 33-IP, 32-K - 

  Ryan McAuliffe - 22/yrs. old - undrafted - interesting find... signed to help out and threw 4-G, 2-ST, 0-0, 2.84, 1.18

I'm dumping both Jake Simon and Trent Johnson and I'm not even guaranteeing that all of the six names I have listed above will survive after the next draft kids are signed. We'll have to wait and see what worked themselves out in Extended Camp.


Rookie - Kingsport 

Now, things get real testy.

We know both the Kingsport and GCL team will be flooded with IFA and draft kids. All we can do here list the best of the best that are currently in the system

  Cameron Planck - 19/yrs. old - Rd. 11/2016 - never pitched an inning in 2017 due to shoulder surgery. He should be ready to go come spring 2018

  Jaison Vilera - 20/yrs. old - IFA - boy, was this a pleasant find - 17/GCL: 11-G, 8-starts, 3-1, 1.88, 0.96... after 1.59 for the two DSL teams in 2016

  
Rookie - GCL-Mets

The Mets are so talented in international pitchers right now, that they could easily not draft a single starter that they weren't planning on starting him off above the Kingsport level. No joke.

Here are the best of the best lining up for the GCL team next spring - 

  Jorge Cespedes - 21/yrs. old - IFA - 17/DSL-1 - 13-starts, 6-2, 2.03, 1.19

  Ivan Santana - 23/yrs. old - IFA - 17/DSL-2 - 13-G, 11-ST, 7-3, 2.14, 1.14 (after 9-1, 1.89, 1.05 in 2016)

  Nelson Leon - 22/yrs. old - IFA - 17/DSL-2 - 14-G, 12-starts, 8-3, 2.06, 1.01

  Malky Mena - 20/yrs old - IFA - 17/DSL - 13-G, 10-starts, 3-3, 2.13, 0.95

  Miquel Ramirez - 20/yrs. old - IFA - 17/DSL-1 - 14-starts, 6-2, 1.76, 0.90

  Will Tavares - 19/yrs. old - IFA - 17/DSL-2 - 15-G, 13-ST, 2.31, 0.91

Summary - 

Look, we all are very disappointed by the results of our latest 'super group' rotation pitchers. Blind Faith it wasn't.

That being said, being as objective as I could be, there are seven more red chip starter prospects in the pipeline, followed by 10 more blue chip, 'keep an eye on' guys, that could also be a major league rotation pitcher some day.

That's 17 starter prospects!

This is the easiest one...

Rating:  A+