Tom Brennan - MY METS PROSPECTS: # 14 JUSTIN DUNN

Tom Brennan - MY METS PROSPECTS: # 14 JUSTIN DUNN

Sometimes, you hold your nose a bit when you rank a guy (when it is ranking Mets prospects in 2017, you do that a lot).

Such as in the case of Justin Dunn.

The 2016 first round selection (19th overall pick) truly pitched like a Mets major leaguer this season...which means not well at all.

Flashing back all the way to 2016, though, he had a solid, innings-controlled post-draft career start in Brooklyn, in which he went no more than 3 innings each outing.  

He tossed 30 innings to a low ERA. He nonetheless allowed 40 base runners against far-from-major-league competition, so I was somewhat concerned he was not more dominant there, but did not want to make too much out of it in my mind.  Pro hitters can provide a challenge, right?  I'd have decided to skip him over Columbia to St Lucie for 2017, to push him.  So what did the Mets do?

The Mets skipped him over Columbia to St Lucie in 2017.  

Results there, though, were not what you would expect from a first rounder.

95 innings, a high 1.56 WHIP, 5.00 ERA and only 75 Ks, a low number considering how many batters he faced.

By comparison, another former first rounder, Matt Harvey, skipped pitching in his draft season, but pitched in St Lucie AND in AA in his first full season, and he went 13-5, 3.32 in 26 starts, fanning 156 in 135 innings.  The St Lucie portion of that season was 8-2, 2.37.

How about AJ Puk, the 6th overall selection, 13 ahead of Dunn?   The lefty of the same age has fanned 224 in 158 career innings, and already has 64 innings in AA.  Far ahead of Dunn. Really high first rounders often rock.

So by comparison, Justin Dunn was far inferior to Harvey in his first full season, but we sadly recall that the early Harvey was at that time already the great Dark Knight, so to some degree, it is unfair to compare the two.  Compare Dunn to what we would have expected from a first round # 19 pick in his 2nd season, and it is disappointing.

Dunn's season was truly a 4 part tale.

First, he was awful, with a 6.89 ERA over his first 7 starts.

Second, he was switched to the pen to try something, anything different, and it worked: 3 dominant outings, 11 innings, 1 run, 4 hits, 9 Ks, but still 5 walks.  

Third, two very solid 5 inning starts, allowing 1 run and 9 hits, fanning 10. Rolling nicely.  ERA down from 6.89 to 4.53 very quickly.  Ready to break out?  Uhh.... No.

Fourth, he reverted back to weak pitching, just when I thought he might be approaching a promotion to AA.  He allowed 32 runs in his final 42 innings, from June 20 through August 3, at which point he went on the disabled list with an unspecified malady...perhaps it was shellshock.

So, frankly, I do not know what to expect from Dunn in 2018, when he turns 22.  if you do, please tell me.  My guess would be he starts out again in St Lucie, to establish a baseline of success before tackling tougher hitters.  My second guess is that we won't see him pitching in Queens until mid-2019 at the earliest.

The question is ultimately: how good will he be, long term?  

Hard to tell. And will he beat this year's first rounder, lefty David Peterson, to Citifield?  Another good question.

Heck, maybe 2017 was a complete aberration for Dunn...and for the greatly diminished Matt Harvey; maybe Dunn accelerates in 2018, and Harvey resurrects and then becomes a free agent after 2018, to be succeeded by Dunn in the rotation in 2019.  Which is probably what the Mets were hoping for when they drafted Dunn.

That entire scenario right now appears highly unlikely.  Maybe Dunn is just Rafael Montero II.  Or a future decent MLB bullpen arm.

So you might ask: why do I have Justin Dunn as high as I ranked him, despite his poor 2017?   HOPE.

Hope that the reasons that he was tabbed in the first round will become far more apparent in 2018.  Just...plain...hope.  Met fans love to H..O..P..E. 

Because after this miserable (pitching-wise) 2017 Mets season, the PITCHING HELP WANTED sign has been hung out at Citifield, after their starters recorded to worst ERA in team history and the whole Mets staff sputtered to a ghastly 5.01 ERA and 863 runs allowed (5.33 RPG). Phew...was that limberger I just smelled?  By comparison, the Mets' all time season scoring record was 853.

Only the 1962 Mets had a higher ERA (5.04), and only that team had allowed over 800 runs (948, including a stunning 147 unearned runs...by comparison, the 1999 Mets allowed just 20 unearned runs).

PITCHING HELP WANTED...Bring your kiddies, bring your wife, bring your knuckleball and your mitt.  Uncle Sandy Wants You.  Team tryouts at noon today.  No Justin, you're good...you don't have to come.