ZIPS A-PLENTY
FanGraphs is a well-respected outfit that, among other things, puts out ZiPS projections for MLB players.
I have always found their Mets' projections to be a bit conservative - 2020 is no different. Obviously, there is subjectivity in any such projections.
Some quick thoughts on the Mets' hitters - I will get to the pitchers next time.
Pete Alonso:
"Zipped" at 43 HRs and 108 RBIs - big #'s, to be sure, but they still seem light to me. I'd add 5 HRs and 10 RBIs, to 48 and 118.
Michael Conforto:
31 HRs and 96 RBIs, .361 OBP - sounds about right.
Jeff McNeil:
ZiPS thinks Jeff will regress to .293/.355/.480. I doubt the career .321 hitter will hit below .300 myself. Jeff, IMO, will do .310/.365/.510, as long as the wrist is 100%.
Brandon Nimmo:
.237/.365/.420 His OBP seems low to me, after his .404 OBP of 2018 and his .430 OBP in 26 games after his long time on the DL in 2019. I'd project him at an even .400. His power #s and average look low too. I have Brandon at .260/.400/.460 in 2020.
Amed Rosario:
ZiPS' .274/.313/.421 for the 24 year old in 2020 is a little below flat to his 2019 .287/.323/.432, and far below his second half of 2019 results.
I think Amed is more like .295/.335/.450 in 2020.
J.D.Davis:
After a .307/.369/.527 breakout 2019, ZiPs really cuts him back to .265/.324/.462. He was well above ZiPS in every month but May last season, so I think they are too conservative.
I'd put J.D. at .290/.355/.500 in 2020.
Robby Cano:
ZiPS has Cano in 2020 at .260/.316/.405. Roughly exactly what he did in 2019. However, when healthy in the 2nd half of 2019, he hit a frothy .284/.339/.541, so again, I feel ZiPS is far too conservative on Cano for 2020, even while I acknowledge that at age 37, some slippage could occur.
I'd put Cano at .270/.325/.460.
Yo Cespedes and Jed Lowrie:
Assessing what the MIA duo of 2019 will accomplish in 2020 is clearly difficult.
ZiPS has Cespedes in 2020 at .257/.322/.485 - I think the power # is low, but time will tell.
I would say .260/.325/.530.
Lowrie was ZiPS-listed at just .243/.318/.387, a far cry from his pre-injury 2017 and 2018 - but Jed missed a year and is getting old, so ZiPS may be about right there.
OTHERS:
Dom Smith:
He is ZiPS-projected at .253/.310/.413. I see no reason for him to regress that much.
I'd put him at .270/.325/.440.
Joe Panik:
I see him right about at ZiPS' .255/.323/.363. Not good enough to stay, IMO.
Luis Guillorme:
ZiPS at .244/.319/.328. Add in his special defense and he is Panik's cheaper equivalent. Go with Luis over Panik.
Jake Marisnick:
ZiPS says .225/.282/.407 and a 1 WAR. Sounds about right.
Tomas Nido and Ali Sanchez:
Interestingly, in looking at these catchers, Nido is projected by ZiPS at .218/.252/.345, while Sanchez is projected at a very similar .218/.265/.305. Those seem about right.
Since Sanchez is better defensively, if ZiPS is correct, the younger Sanchez should leap over Nido in 2020. Ramos, BTW, slotted in right around his 2019 offensive stats, but is projected again to be poor defensively.
That's my take - how about yours?
Of course, if you don't agree with me...ZIP IT!
5 comments:
ZIPS TIPS RIPS DIPS
What they do is project low because it's all BS. I dont mean their actual work is BS but sorry, you cannot (yet) feed numbers into a computer that represent the human aging process, the difference a change in diet, sleep (Dom Smith) a new conditioning program or a players attitude has on his development. Even if you had access to that data how do you quantify it? These projections can only be done by eye and experience. I'll go up against that computer anywhere, anyplace and anytime. :)
I'll start getting my projections now!
Post up your projections...fire away.
They sure do project low...if everything goes wrong, they look like geniuses.
I agree, the biggest pile of crap on the Internet. The problem is in the analytics. Everyone and their brother are trying to find a new angle and then make it important. I’d respect Fangraphs more if they just scrapped the ZIPS, but if someone willing to read it, they’ll be willing to write it.
Speaking of injuries, did y’all see how the Yankees reacted to leading the league in DL games? Cleaned house on the training staff! It took the Mets for Broadie to get here in order to do it.
I still don’t see Dom Smith fitting into this team. What about Smith for Clint Frazier? I mean, why not? What do you guys think? Do the Yankees want this?
You know, the more I think of it, it seems it is now Cashman that doesn’t have the balls to make a trade with the Mets. Two summers ago, he could have gotten JDG, at a nothing contract by giving up his prize second base prospect , but he didn’t, thus costing himself a chance at getting to the World Series. I know that Torres has blossomed, but two Cy Young’s later and he’s paying $324MM for Cole and he lost two chances.
Last year, he would not give up snot for Wheeler. Went nowhere again. Laughable, actually, knee-slapping hysterical. Cashman wants half the solar system for his prospects and has totally shot his team in the foot with over thinking and just blew up his payroll. Nice.
I like Brian Cashman’s professionalism look. But ever since he was able to push out Girardi, he has been tight with the changes and unable to add the right player to make a difference where that difference is needed.
Texas Gus, Clint Frazier is weak in D, so I am not sure that is what they need, but an interesting idea.
Excellent point on JDG.
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