So there are lots of ways to take over a new ballclub and mold it into your version for the future. There's the Florida Marlins model of gutting the team, selling off any asset worth having, and trying to rebuild with the cast from a Charlie Brown ensemble. Then there's the Black Friday approach where you buy and trade for every expensive asset available in the attempt to jump start your team into contention.
Of course, there's the in-between approach as well. In this scenario you ship off some of the older and expensive players in the attempt to get younger and build a long term solution. You reinforce the minor league and scouting organizations to help develop a steady supply of minimum wage reinforcements.
The problem with the third method is it requires something neither new owners nor fans possess -- patience. It is not an overnight solution, it is not an immediate bolster to the profit margin, and it is not a guarantee of success. Consequently, you more often see the first two approaches embraced by new owners.
Do either of these philosophies really work? Let's take the Derek Jeter ownership approach and evaluate how well he's done. Ummm...Bueller? Anyone out there with an idea of how waving goodbye to anyone who knows how to play the game results in improvements in the divisional standings?
Then the spend your way to a pennant approach always works. Yes, on paper it sounds impressive. You gain a J.T. Realmuto, a Marcus Stroman, a 21st century version of Babe Ruth and of Dennis Eckersley. You burst from the gates with energy and swagger, only to discover that the Brand X people filling out the rest of your roster quickly clarify why they were both available and inexpensive. That means you either pump more money (and luxury tax) into the payroll, or you concede that buying a pennant isn't the most reliable way to achieve October baseball.
That brings us back to the slow and steady wins the race approach to building a winner. Pennants often are the result of solid if not league-best players performing at a premium level and unknown players doing far better than anyone expected. Think about the Kansas City Royals in 2015 who handed the Mets a 4-1 World Series victory based upon a lineup with two prodigious 22 HR sluggers and one 18 HR slugger. That's not exactly the stuff All Stars or Hall of Fame careers are built. They had modest pitching and a manager with a reputation even dimmer than Terry Collins, yet they won easily with a group of solid performances across the board.
No one may want to hear it, but the best approach for Steve Cohen and the Mets might be to try this middle level approach of getting the most out of players you have and giving opportunities to some younger folks to exceed what people think they are capable of doing. This philosophy doesn't guarantee lots of big headlines from the best of the baseball cards nor does it assure a tiny payroll to make the shareholders happy. However, the depth and breadth of a contending team cannot be built on 3-4 stars nor can it exist on 26 nobodies. It's not as sexy as having an All Star at every position but it might make for a long term solution that is good for more than one quick run to the top.
7 comments:
Great points Reese. One thing KC excelled in was defense. The Mets defense let them down multiple times in thec2015 series.
It sure helps to be lucky, too. This year’s starting rotation? Other than Peterson, unlucky. How different it would be with Stroman and Syndergaard.
Also helps if you don't deplete your minor league pitching depth. How different would the Nets be if they had kept Dunn, Kay, and Woods-Richardson? Next year we will be asking why they didn't keep Kevin Smith and Jordan Humphreys. Hopefully next year the Mets will have a better plan.
And a better owner, a better GM and perhaps a different though not necessarily better manager.
Both Mets championship seasons came with the slow and steady approach. Whitey Herzog and Johnny Murphy in '69 and Joe McIlvane and Frank Cashen in '86. The Mets also have many more ML assets on the roster to make the jump faster than in the two aforementioned seasons. Recently the Astros and the Royals come to mind as using the slower approach effectively.
I would like to present a fourth approach. Buy stars at most positions but draft well and build up your minor leagues by not giving away prospects for washed up players. This was the Dodgers approach in 2012 and has led to a strong and deep system and now a good young team that not only isn’t as expensive but will allow for specific free agents or free agents to be (ahem, Mookie Betts) to be added or retained. This was genius by Andrew Friedman and that what Cohen needs, another Andrew Friedman.someone that can build correctly and can use scouting to sign the Corey Saegar’s when other teams let them fall to #18 because they took Gavin Cecchini, or finding a Cory Bellinger in the third round, or not accumulating one dimensional players that make a defense look like a laughing stock.
Texas Gus, lots of sense there.
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