OK, gents and ladies, Steve Cohen arrives to greet his personnel, summarily fires Brodie Van Wagenen, and hires YOU as GM.
You know you deserve it, as you are acutely aware of how awesome you are, and admire Steve for his keen eye for talent.
Then he gives you his first assignment:
OUT OF THREE GUYS
- MCNEIL, DAVIS, AND ALONSO -
- IF YOU CAN ONLY KEEP TWO OF THEM -
WHO DO YOU KEEP?
I'll try to think for you for a moment, since you're a bit tongue-tied and mystified.
Jeff McNeil - Jeff has been a hit machine and very versatile and consistent. .329 as a rookie in 2018, .318 with added power in 2019, and .331 in 2020. His power has come and gone a bit during seasons, but who hits over .318 every year besides Tony Gwynn?
And Jeff's minors career was devoid of power early, but he sits today with a .510 career slug %. Keep in mind that the great David Wright had a career slug % of .491.
Guys like McNeil who can hit falling out of bed are worth their weight in gold, IMO, because when a really tough pitcher is your opponent, and your teammates are flailing around you, Jeff will get his hits and help his team fight back.
JD Davis has been truly impressive with the bat - as a Met, he has had a season's worth of ABs - 571 ABs, hitting .299/.373/.503 with 30 doubles, 28 HRs and 76 RBIs. He's fanned 139 times in 620 Mets plate appearances, not that bad for a power hitter in 2020, and he can play two more positions than Pete Alonso - 3B and LF.
To his discredit, as a Met, he has hit a lot better without RISP than he has with RISP - that and moving around the line up has suppressed his RBI totals. I'm not sure how much treasure he could net the team in a trade, which is a factor in your decison making recommendation. (0 for 5 last night).
Pete Alonso had a prodigious, surreal, jaw-dropping and unprecedented 2019, with 53 HRs, 120 RBIs, quickly was the offensive face of the franchise, started LFGM, the whole nine yards.
So far, he has had a fine 64 bombs and 146 RBIs in 749 ABs. Last night, Pete avoid another oh-fer when Aaron Nola's 3rd strike was called a ball, and Pete deposited the next pitch over the wall - Pete is still strong. Anyway, trading him would be a huge gamble, but if some team overwhelmed you???
Why even think about trading the Pounder? Well, his 2020 has been more that a Sophomore Jinx - it's been a Sophomore Stinks! 172 ABs, 51 Ks, .215 average. 80% of his games this year, he's been a liability. (Oddly, he did his best hitting in the two hole last year, but has gone just 0 for 11 there this year. Maybe another stint in the 2 hole would help him now.)
It's probably just a bad year, a weird truncated year for the Pounder - and he'll probably be just fine going forward, right?
Well, I know I thought that, when David Wright stepped on Ike Davis' ankle early in his sophomore year, Ike would be fine-to-great, but he was injured just when Ike looked to be rising to stardom.
Up to that fateful, bizarre injury, which at first looked like it would just sideline him for a few days, Ike had had a fine rookie season at age 23, an age when Pete was still in the minors, and a great soph season start too.
In fact, up to that injury, Ike was impressive indeed in his career, if not to the level of Pete - Ike had 652 ABs, 41 doubles, 26 HRs, 96 RBIs,89 walks, and hit .272 in his career up until he was trodden upon. Glove man, too. Trade value at that point? High, no doubt.
After that, Ike was never the same, though. I doubt Pete fares similarly; he most likely will bounce back big in 2021, payback time, maybe even during what little is left of this season, but it has to be tempting to at least think about selling Pete high, right?
Perhaps there is a team with a great young starting pitcher and catcher who would love to link up with the Mets in a trade for Pete.
Or, how about Pete, Josh Wolf and Ronny Mauricio for Soto? (I know it is a lot to give, but Soto is a super-young Super Freak. Players like him are oh-so rare. As in Willie Mays rare. Henry Aaron rare. Ken Griffey Jr rare. A Rod rare).
Back to reality.
Of course, Michael Conforto and Brandon Nimmo asked why Steve Cohen did not ask for them to be considered by you as keepers in this evaluation. Because they are keepers.
Conforto vs. Alonso would be a very tough call, as Conforto is a better contact hitter and hitter for average, and less of an all-or-nothing bopper, although his power comes close to Alonso's. Maybe Pete can alter his game to emulate Mike's approach...after all, Mikey C had a rough soph season himself, but is far better nowadays. Growth, maturity, take your pick.
Nimmo's last 3 years have been impressive - .400 on base % and .480 slugging %, (and he had a crucially great night last night with a walk, single, triple, and a game-breaking 9th inning homer). And those #'s most likely would have been even higher were it not for his bulging disk issue in early 2019.
He does compile that production with less hits and more walks than McNeil, but he gets on base - an awful lot - and you don't always think of him as a power hitter, but maybe you should, what with 92 extra base hits in 796 at bats in 2018-20.
The last time the Mets might have to ponder which of 5 fine, young hitters to move, if any, was, well, NEVER.
The Mets have a nice problem on their hands - and if the DH stays in the NL, I would recommend to Big Steve, the new Big Cheese in Queens, the Head Honcho, the Main Man, not moving any of these Fab Five.
Trading any one of them could be a BIG mistake. Unless we can trade to get Juan Soto, the Super Freak. He is, after all, super-freaky.
Before I go...BIG night last night:
Big, critical win, again showing this team can rake, with the Mets nicking the mighty Aaron Nola for 8 runs and a bunch of hits and walks over the last 10.2 innings in his 2 recent Mets starts, with Nola tossing a shutout afgainst the Marlins in between. Lugo proved to be VERY mortal, but the pen was great and tired Edwin Diaz gutted out his 3rd outing in 3 nights, somehow fanning only 2 in his uncomfortable close out. Now back home against Atlanta.
34 comments:
If I went into a store to buy a six pack, I'd be real happy if the six in the six pack were Alonso, Conforto, Davis, McNeil, Nimmo, and McNeil.
Imagine if Pete was on his game.
Tom - not sure the Nationals will want to move Juan Soto but maybe they can get Viktor Robles who is one of the best fielding CFs in baseball. Nimmo was recently rated the worst fielding CF in baseball, he is not the CF of the future.
Why was Diaz in the game in a no save situation.
If i am GM, JD is trade bait.
RDS, JD has looked bad at times this year. The problem is the Mets don't have many quality right handed batters after this year to balance out the lineup besides JD and Pete. I think we are seeing JD get exposed when he plays everyday but we may want to keep him at least as a platoon against lefties going forward. Without looking at the numbers, it seems the Mets have really struggled this year against lefties - they lost two last weekend against the Jays.
In the future, I am hoping the Mets can bring up Wilmer Reyes to platoon at 2B/SS. Right hand batter, with good glove, who steals bases. He can play 2B, SS, and 3B. He is a rule 5 player this year - don't think the Mets will protect him.
Rds, I can only surmise that Rojas was uncomfortable with a 4 run 9th inning lead against a good hitting Phillies team. Fortunately, it worked out, but I would have tried Castro and saved Diaz for tonight myself. Now, short of an absolute emergency, I can't see Diaz being used. That was some 3 day workload.
JD probably would be the guy to go. The right team ought to like his potent bat and cheap salary.
John, Robles having a very subdued 2020. I would be a bit concerned that maybe the league caught up to him. Nimmo is a top quartile offensive player, and I love his offense. Offensively, he seems to be getting even better.
JD is the most expendable. He can hit OK but he really can't field. He has to hit better than he has to make up for the bad defense. Its pretty hard to give up on a rookie who led all of baseball in HR based on a shortened season. That being said Smith is looking he is evolving into the more complete player.
McNeil is close to untouchable. His versatility on the field can't be understated. Being able to play the OF and IF gives the manager a lot of options with his roster.
I hate to say it but this decision really depends on the DH sticking around. Without the DH this decision becomes A LOT harder.
I can't imagine any scenario where the Nats would give up a franchise superstar like Soto.
We need starters and we don't want to trade chips.
We do have trading depth.
I keep Gimenez at short, Dom at first, Pete as DH and McNeil at third.
I trade both Davis and Rosario for starters.
Depends on whether or not the NL keeps the DH, I suppose.
If not, then you have to deal either Smith or Alonso, IMO (I know Smith wasn't on the list, but I am spitballing here).
You also want to deal someone who will net a worthy player or two in return, so I would pick Pete in this scenario (to trade). He might bounce back, or he might be the second coming of Dave Kingman. In any event, he is sort of a one trick pony, while Smith is a better all around player (when you factor in speed and defense).
With Smith at 1B, that opens up LF for Nimmo, which is where he belongs.
I like JD's versatility and he isn't going to net as much as Pete would, so he is more valuable to the Mets' bench.
If the DH is here to stay, then I hold onto everyone and Pete is the primary DH.
If I had to choose I'd move Davis, but I'd like to keep that 6 pack.
Diaz was likely in the game be cause he warmed up before the lead extended to 4 runs. I would have held him out unless someone else got in trouble, but regardless of save or no save statistically, the game was a must win so I can't argue with having your best option in there for a must win.
I think there is as close to zero shot of the Nats moving Soto. No thanks on Robles, who they'll likely keep as sell.
Mike
The DH is an owner favorite and it is here to stay.
If you put Nimmo in LF where do you play McNeil?
We desperately need right hand hitting. I'd keep Rosario over Gimenez. Rosario gives you competent ss while Gimenez has a higher trade value.
I've made the point before that CF, catching and 3B needs to be upgraded. My preference would be to sign Realmuto, try to trade for Devers (Smith and Gimenez) and ?? in CF all right hand hitters.
would you trade alonzo for a package to include Kelenic and a Pitcher back from Seattle???
Eddie, Alonso could hit them over Mt Rainier. Kelenic and Dunn for Pete? Not sure that is enough. Kelenic could be the 2021 ROY, so maybe. Fans would probably flip out.
Are we ever going to try and improve this team defensively?
Rds, how about Pete and Rosario for Devers.? I like Gimenez over Rosie ODonnellio. But that leaves too many lefties. Your trade call might be better, but I would hate to lose Smith.
One thing is for sure, when it comes to offense, we have players to trade that would be very attractive to many teams. So some sort of impact trade, or trades, should be happening this winter
One thing that a team could look at with addressing with Alonso: somehow, in his career, he is hitting in the high .250s vs. righties, low .220s versus lefties. Very unusual. If he boosted his average vs. lefties by 40-50 points, to around .270, a bounce back season should be no problem.
Mack, I love ❤️ the DH.
Dallas, JD would be a great DH/3B for a needy team. Get a team’s top prospect? I’d listen.
Add Realmuto, Devers and a defensive first CF and we would be just fine.
Better chance if trade included Smith and Gimenez. Right now too vulnerable to Lefty pitching.
I have to keep Davis as his defense at 3B is better than Alonso’s defense at 1B. Further, Davis is a better hitter than Alonso; Davis makes adjustments and studies pitchers. That isn’t to be taken lightly. Alonso has potential to be a good hitter, but he’s not a disciplined hitter. He hit .256 in AAA, he hit ..259 in the majors and is now hitting .220. While Alonso is a difference making power hitter, he needs to use the whole field because he swings alot at pitches off the outside corner.
Rodney Returns
Boy, you Mets fans are really somethin'. I can remember the time when any Mets batter getting a basehit was an opportunity for everyone to celebrate with a cold Rheingold or four. And if one of our Mets pitchers got a 1,2,3 inning, the last person to the concession stand nearest them, had to pay for the whole round. It happened three times in '62! I lost one time getting there because I was in the bathroom. That team was bad I tell ya', but we didn't care a bit. It was a lot of fun with Casey, and we always brought our wives along to drive us all safely home. Except my wife. Safe to her was less than four dents on any one trip and no one's skull fragments stuck in the grill. But my wife, that's another story.
Now that's baseball.
Rodney thank you for your thoughts, and no disrespect. No disrespect at all.
Texas Gus, at one point, Chris Davis was a difference-making power hitter too. Pete needs to drive the ball to all fields. If you do so, HRs will come. At least that's what Kevin Costner told me, or was I dreamin'?
What's My Biggest Fear
Besides this next election happening, I would say having a large NY Mets player personnel changeover.
Look at the stats. Sometimes the truth is no further away than just that. Steven Matz started. The Mets got five hits the whole game. The Braves rotation is actually not good enough to make it to the big bar mitzvah this season. There are teams that hit just as well (if not better), but also have a much better rotation. The Braves are not deep at starting pitching, they don't hold up across five starters.
What happens to a team when they have less probability of winning a game with their own much weaker starter than when a better pitcher for them is starting? They don't like it, and they subconsciously they are not trying as hard because they know that the odds of losing that game are much greater. If you ever played this game, you know precisely what I mean here.
The only thing I didn't like last night was having Kilome follow a Matz failed start next. You needed a sure veteran in instead right there. Six runs surrendered is not game over necessarily. But with Franklyn, it became twelve.
Today is another day. This team bounces back very well too.
Anonymous, you should add your name and become a regular commenter. Your comment very much lines up with my article today at 9:30. If the Mets weren't in utter pitching desperation, there is no way Matz starts. What choice did they have?
The Braves, like the Mets, can really hit. Matz looked like it was his first outing in February. He wasn't ready.
But I disagree with you on Atlanta pitching. Fried is 7-0, ERA under 2. For a night, their pitching was great. Now, the Mets have to shake it off and win at least 7 of 9. Hard to do with their collapsing, and short-on-talent, pitching staff.
All this JD Davis blabber.
JD has played like three big league seasons, not even full ones between here and Houston 'Stros. That's it. This season is like a minute and a half long, thanks to Covid19. It's almost too short to get a real read on any one player. It's like extended ST.
Here's JD 2019 stats again, so you know:
140 games played/22 HR/57 RBI/.307 BA
I personally wouldn't trade him. 2019 is a good indication as to why. He's only 27 and has not hit his prime.
But I don't trade Jeff McNeil or Dominique Smith either. I hang onto all three players. They are all really good and a big part of this team.
So what to do you ask?
The Mets will need solid trade bait to get back a missing piece here, like another good young starter named Trevor Bauer for instance. But because there are no other starters worth even looking at on this FA list in my opinion, they might have to open up the wallet to get Trevor.
There is the possible solution.
Then you make a smaller trade to obtain Minnesota Twins catcher young Ryan Jeffers and platoon him with Tomas Nido. You need two solid catchers nowadays. In this way no crippled up players from other teams are offered contracts, like every season prior going back to the Titanic. And you get all the best kids down on the Mets farm ready for their serious ST look, like Szapucki, a lefty starter.
This here Bubba is the making of a really good and young Mets team, and who knows maybe even a (Shhhhhh) dynasty as well. Booyah!
Tom Brennan...
Excellent to hear from you. I like your articles and postings, a lot!
You make a very good point with last night's Braves starter Max "Headroom" Fried. He did pitch outstandingly well again last night, and he and Ian Anderson (lead singer/flootist from Jethro Tull, circa 1980) are young outstanding stud starters. (And yes, I hate them both actually.) But what I was trying but evidently failing to speak to is that after these two starters, the Braves have almost nothing, nothing at all in their rotation. It will not compete well with the likes of say the LA Dodgers, the top digging-dog in the dogpen.
The Braves' three starter is Cole Hamels (age 36) 0-1/8.10 ERA/1.20 WHIP, the four: Tommy Milone (age 33) (I think he was in the "Bowery Boys" but not 100% certain) 1-4/4.56 ERA/1.33 WHIP, and the five guy: Kyle Wright (age 24) 1-4/7.20 ERA/2.08
That was my point.
You need three really good starters and a fourth guy good enough to possibly see game action, if case need be. The Braves have two. My other point with the Braves, is that they have a pretty good and powerful batting lineup. Yet look at the last three starters' records thus far.
Stats usually tell the story, except in 1969 that is. I am still getting over that. I already miss Tom Seaver!
In one of my posts from yesterday...
I mentioned the fact that the Chicago Bull's Michael Jordan literally willed himself to greatness. He had the skills coming out of NC. He could taste success early with Chicago, but he knew he had to work really hard, and so he. This to me, is the difference between very good and greatness.
But I also want to mention Tom Seaver here with this, because Tom was the exact same way. The story of Tom Seaver not being happy with reaching a 500% won/lost record is entirely true. Tom was not even slightly satisfied, he wanted to be a great pitcher on a great team. The Mets team. And in 1969 it finally happened, in what I consider to be the greatest season in NY Mets history. I know, because I was one of the "wow eyed kids" at the games back then.
Even the air before the game at Shea was sweeter. You could literally feel Mets Magic all around you. There was a buzz coming down to the finals weeks of the season. You could not wait for the game to begin because your Mets team now had a chance.
But Tom Seaver had that "whatever it is" all about him. He was a lot like Jacob deGrom. He expected to be perfect every single game that he started. Nothing less was suitable to Tom Seaver. He was miles ahead in his dissecting of opponent batters, and his strategy that he would employ against them. He was the proverbial student of the game. An A+ student.
If you were not around for seeing Tom Seaver pitch back in 1969, go watch some youtube on him and see for yourself. He threw as hard as Matt Harvey did early on in his career, and never do I recall Tom ever getting hurt. He had that hard sinking fastball, and other topflight pitches as well that mesmerized batters.
Watch too the interviews with Ralph Kiner (Kiner's Korner). Within them you will see the way Tom Seaver's brilliant basbeall mind worked. The thing that also impressed me wasn't just all that, it was the fact that Tom Seaver's great success (as one of the all time best pitchers ever in MLB) did not change the man that he already was coming in. No one enjoyed humor, laughing, and just having silly fun more than Tom Seaver did. Except maybe Ralph.
Tom Seaver will not be forgotton.
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