We’re moving another day closer to the projected start of a regularly timed spring training workout session beginning next month. The Mets still have unsettled business which must be resolved, but they have made strides towards improving defense with the acquisitions of Francisco Lindor and James McCann. They have filled one of the pitching rotation vacancies with Carlos Carrasco and one of the bullpen gaps with Trevor May. Yes, at this point they’re still a bit short in the pitching department, nothing has been done about center field and nothing has been declared a permanent solution at third base, but lots of pots are in the fire and fans are excited, anxious and debating furiously about what the powers that be should do to get ready.
Today let’s not look at the amount of money being spent (or not being spent, depending upon who you believe). Some fans right here are confident that billionaire owner Steve Cohen would crash right through that payroll limit if he felt the right deal was worth the penalty tax. Others conditioned to too many years of Wilponia believe the stories in the media about not doing that. The truth may be somewhere in between. The plan could be to stay under the spending threshold but you never say never if the right opportunity comes along.
What concerns me is that the Mets acknowledged that their minor league system is not exactly chock full of hot prospects, but some of their actions already have included dealing away a pair of the more highly regarded youngsters in order to improve the team. No one is saying that the deal made for Francisco Lindor was a bad one. No, no one is saying that. However, what are the Mets going to do in the near future when they had hoped some of the lower minor leaguers would ascend up the ladder to help the big club?
Right now the AA and AAA teams are somewhat barren of players that are in the top of the prospect draft lists. The Mets’ better teenagers are further down the growth path and dealing them away could make that problem worse instead of better.
Obviously, improving the draft and expanding scouting to include international options from beyond Central and South America will help in that regard. The Wilpon dynasty seemed disinterested in considering that baseball existed outside of these contiguous prospect development zones. There are new sheriffs in town now, but Sandy Alderson existed under the geographically and financially constrained former powers. To me he’s in a position where he needs to prove it to the fans and the media that he can flex his creative thinking muscles beyond where they were previously dormant.
Another option for the Mets to make would be later in the year trading away expiring contracts or players about to hit free agency to fill the minor league coffers with more highly regarded wannabe major leaguers. That avenue is often frowned upon when you give away Player A and all you got back were “a bunch of unproven minor leaguers!” Isn’t that what the other clubs are doing to the Mets when they obtain the Queens would-be major leaguers as parts of the trades they made under the Wilpons and now under the Cohen regime?
I’m not a strong advocate of buying a pennant. I prefer building for one. This approach is not only about paying for the top free agents or extending high-dollar contracts to players that other clubs can no longer afford to pay. It’s also about reinforcing the quality of future players in the minors. Watch what happens in Atlanta, in Los Angeles, in Houston, in Washington, in Pittsburgh and other places where they seem to find multiple viable options from their own minor league systems instead of simply playing Steinbrenner.
10 comments:
Top tier players just cost too much for anyone to just go all out free agent. You need cheap talent coming thru the system.
How much will Alonso, Smith and McNeil make in 2021? Not much at all. Low salaries for young, above average talent is essential to making a team successful - unless you are eventually OK with $400 million annual payrolls and taxes.
One abysmal area has been the lack of real talent coming up to be assets in the Mets bullpen. It is incredible that they've gotten virtually nothing out of the minors for the pen since Gsellman and Lugo arrived in 2016, even after dumping players for pen arms in 2017. That gaping hole in a talent pipeline needs to be repaired.
Interesting story Reese, especially with the International signing period over and the Mets (thanks to the Wilpons) not getting any of the top players by ranking lists. My guess is that significantly changes in the coming years. I'm very intrigued to see what comes next for the Cohen, Alderson, Porter regime. It's not my money so if he wants to spend $300 million on salary go for it. However, my sense is that's not how any of them want to build a team. Sure, money will play a huge part, but I think they will want to show their creative side of things in putting together the roster. The Lindor trade is evidence of using money creatively. The tax limit is an artificial barrier that might change significantly in 2022 with a new collective bargaining agreement in place. As for this year, easy thing to do is sign Springer, Hand, and another starter, maybe be in the $220 million range and be done with it. However, I'm guessing they are looking for more creative ways to move forward. Either way is a great change for Mets fans.
Porter and Scott were great at finding below the radar guys in Boston. We need them to do that again or else the lack of depth will be a problem again. Stay healthy my Mets.
I’m all for going Steinbrenneresque over the first tier of the salary cap to not lose any of our prospects, but part of me also wants to see if their is another trade out there where we can take a salary back to give up less prospects in return.
I really want us to jump on the Luis Castillo train. Maybe take back Mike Moustatkis and his average salary of $16 mill over next 4 years and let him play 3rd base. I believe he is pretty good defensively out there at 3rd and can hit 25-30 HR’s in a normal season. To make his salary more palatable we would be getting Castillo at $4 million this season (probably $10 next year and $15 the last season of arbitration). He would probably get a Wheeler type deal in free agency, so a $22 million a year deal. So if you do the math and add both salaries together it would be in our favor the first 3 years to make a deal like this. As opposed to signing an Odorizzi for $15 million a year over the next 3-4 years he is going to get in free agency.
So imagine a top 6 starters of
DeGrom
Castillo
Carrasco
Stroman
Petersen/ Synndergarrd
That would be pretty nice and one of the best in the Majors
I would think is we trade them JD Davis, Kilome, Robert Dominguez and Mark Vientos for Castillo and Moustatkis and his remaining $68 mill left on his contract. Also I would try and see if you can have them take on Betances last year of his contract in the deal as well.
After years of watching the Wilpons, we knew how they thought and it was relatively easy to anticipate their mindset and moves.
With Cohen, we just don't know. It could go either way. There's no track record in baseball. Though if I were to guess, my sense is that it will be very difficult for him to watch another team come away with a coveted player; he didn't come here to lose, and the ego might play a part. I suspect he's got cut-throat instincts.
The Mets farm system at the upper levels is in very bad shape. People like to blame Brodie for that -- he traded away prospects -- but the real culprit was 7+ years of Sandy Alderson as GM. Brodie traded for players because there was no help on the farm and the mandate from ownership was to win now. No money, no players on the farm to help the ML team, he did what he was hired to do. Ultimately, Sandy didn't do a good job with the farm system despite the fact that he stockpiled picks, rarely traded prospects, and openly stated it was his top priority.
So, yes, no one would disagree: You need a strong farm system.
The reports I've read, and mentioned above by Jeff, are the Mets did not do well in the international signing period. It's unfair to blame the new regime for that. Hopefully that's an area that will improve in the future.
Going out and buying players at top dollar will not be enough, obviously. But it is the Mets only true competitive advantage. The other organizational stuff will take time, years to develop. Nothing I've seen suggests that Sandy is the guy to achieve that, but hopefully he'll have lots of help.
Right now, today, I don't think the Mets are as good as the Braves. Springer would be a huge help -- and I'd still be worried about our starting pitching. But I guess you can't have everything.
It's been a fascinating off-season, and there's still more to come. The payroll tax might be raised -- or go POOF! entirely -- with the new Collective Bargaining Agreement.
One of my complaints about the Wilpons -- look at 2007 and 2008 for example -- is that they were always content to stop short of excellence. Even when the brass ring was right there in reach. They'd go only so far to address the team's needs, even when we seemed to lack only one more reliever, one more bat. It was the "meaningful games" ambition; they wanted to play them, not necessarily win them. Fred had a deep sense of loyalty to his fellow owners and never wanted to step out of line. My sense, again, is that Steve Cohen will have a difficult time stopping short of what he perceives as excellence. He made a billion dollars this year not by getting everyone to like him.
I think he goes for Springer and patches in the rest with bargain signings.
But I'm just reading tea leaves.
Jimmy
Nice post, Reese. I'm waiting to see if they're going to show some creativity in the international market, too, especially since they didn't sign any of the too IFAs. The idea of trading away expiring contracts is a good one, but seems unlikely to happen if they're winning and contending for the postseason.
Zozo, very interesting out of the box thoughts on Castillo.
Jimmy, my brother and I always talk about the key reason for Wilon era failure, and you hit on it: year after year, the back half of the roster caused them to fail year after year with far too many miserable performances, and 2020 was no exception.
Jimmy
I have to disagree with you on how Sandy handled the system. Most if not all of the guys we have on our roster are from Sandy’s regime farm system. I think he did a great job considering he had his hands tied behind his back the whole time due to the Wilpon regime and Madoff scandals to deal with. He was brought in here to help right the ship at a very low monetary sum.
Also when making trades like the Familia trade to the Oakland A’s, when we could of paid his salary and gotten a better prospect back to load up our system. There were so many of these trades and we got diddly back for them.
Zozo - way too many of those types of deals. Also way too many deals for guys like Frank Francisco and Antonio Bastardo while letting guys like Justin Turner and Daniel Murphy go.
Still upset about the Angel Pagan trade. Pagan did well as #1 or #2 batter in the lineup never much else in other spots. So what does Terry the genius do? Hit himv#5 or #6...then they trade him away where he helps the Giants win a WS.
How much of those moves was Sandy and how much was Wilpon?
It is very easy to blame one guy - in Mets' cases "Blame Jeff". Hopefully Sandy will now have better people around him to make better deals in the future.
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