Any pitching guppies ready to swim with the big fishes?
THE METS HAVE GONE THROUGH AN AWFUL LOT OF PITCHERS THIS YEAR.
We have the smartest readers on this site, so you probably already know that through the Mets' first 101 games, 34 players have pitched for the Mets.
15 in 1969, 15 in 1986, 34 and counting in 2021. Or more - I ran out of toes to count with.
Cookie Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard will almost undoubtedly join the team in the weeks ahead, making that 36. But why would anyone think that a team that normally has 12 or 13 pitchers on any given day, but used 34 already through 63% of the season won't use several more between now and year end?
They can't all come from the outside - can they?
Which pitchers in the farm system could help the Mets over the last 2 months of the season? A focus on low ERA, low WHIP, high K rate, and significant recent success (results through midday on Thursday) culled out the following:
SYRACUSE?
My take?
LIKELY NO ONE. (Maybe Josh Walker, based on his super Thurs. nite start):
They just called up Akeem Bostick and he was 0-4. 6.71, with a 1.75 WHIP and less than a K per inning despite all those batters faced. That demonstrates the utter desperation for any semi-functional arm right now.
Franklyn Kilome, He has started pitching an inning here and there again, and should he get healthy enough to pitch a lot from here on out, might somehow find his way back from Syracuse to Queens, although he has pitched very poorly in Queens in his brief MLB appearances there in 2020. He has so little competition.
Maybe Andrew Mitchell gets a call, but he has to get a lot better in AAA first. He was terrific in AA, but staggered in 9 AAA innings so far.
However, then, on Thursday night, Josh Walker threw 8 innings of 1 hit shutout ball. So maybe he is another Megill Miracle in the making. Sometimes guys struggle a bit at a higher level, then settle down and get on a roll - it looks like Walker just did exactly that.
BINGHAMTON?
Several interesting possibilities, but all seem to be long shots to me except Eric Orze.
Any suggestion that a AA pitcher can leap straight to the Mets is almost always wishful thinking. Why? Lets take Brad Roney. He started out with a brief burst of brilliance in AA, with 4 scoreless innings, 10 Ks. Headed to AAA Syracuse, where he, however, has had a comeuppance: he's allowed 24 runs in 26 innings, and a 7.00 ERA (he has, to his credit, fanned 39 at that level). And the major leagues is far tougher than AAA.
Big transition from AA to the Mets, and all of the following are thus pretty unlikely 2021 call-ups:
That said, let's take a look:
ERIC ORZE: the 5th round draftee in 2020 has pitched well, briefly, for Binghamton and fanned 21 while walking in 12.1 innings. But has thrown just 20 relief outings and 32 innings. That would be quite the leap. But maybe he is so outstanding in the weeks ahead that he gets a call up from a Mets team desperate for another arm. He has a GREAT splitter, and he already beat cancer, so why can't he beat the Braves, too? He is a call up possibility.
ANDREW EDWARDS: a 31st rounder in 2019, he is 0-3 this year in relief but with a 1.78 ERA and 38 Ks in 30 innings. But he'll have to show AAA hitters he can get them out, and he barely has pitched yet in AA.
ALLAN WINANS: a 17th rounder in 2018, he is 0-1, 1.32 ERA in 2021, including a 1.32 ERA in 13 innings in Binghamton. He saved 11 of 13 for Columbia in 2019, too. He deserves to be challenged in AAA to see if he can keep it up, and possibly help the Mets in a pinch in 2021.
CONNOR GREY: a 20th rounder in 2016 for the D Backs, he pitched for Brooklyn, then moved to AA, this season. In his first 11 AA innings, he has walked 1 and fanned 19. Keep pushing him, you may need him in Queens in 2021. It is best year so far in 2021, but he still has a lot to prove.
JOSH WALKER: he is 8-2, 3.49 in Brooklyn and AA this year, pitching better for Binghamton. Push him up, Zach Scott, let's see what he can do in AAA. (Well, he did get pushed up to AAA. See AAA section above).
TOMMY WILSON was a decent arm in 2019 for Binghamton, then got hurt, and has just 3 innings with Binghamton recently this year. Seems to be throwing well, but too few innings to gauge. Let's see if he can go on a run. Just back and throwing very effectively.
JARED ROBINSON is a former 11th rounder with Cleveland who has fanned 53 in 35 innings. Wild early in the season, over his past 10 outings, he has walked just 4 in his last 16.1 innings while fanning 25. He has given up 6 earned runs in that span, so he is a work in progress, but is pointed higher. My guess is he is a HARD thrower who is quickly getting it together, so maybe in a month or so, he could be ready enough if the Mets are in a pinch. Very unlikely call-up, but sometimes guys suddenly click, and necessity is the mother of invention.
BROOKLYN?
3 levels down in the minors from the majors, so the idea that someone could miraculously jump from there to the Mets this year is far-fetched, but let's entertain a few guys:
JUSTIN LASKO - extremely unlikely he pitches for the Mets this year, but the 2019 30th rounder has pitched well for Brooklyn, particularly of late. In his last 7 starts, he has allowed no runs 3 times and 1 run twice. And another excellent start this past weekend. In his career in 2019 and 2021 so far, before the last start, he is 9-9, 2.46, 0.89 WHIP in 110 innings with 105 Ks. So far, so good, but a long way to go.
BRIAN METOYER - also extremely unlikely that the former 40th rounder gets a call to Queens in 2021, but that in part is due to a 6 week stint on the DL just when he was on a roll. Metoyer had huge control problems when drafted but in his 4 outings in June and July, in 6.1 IP, he has allowed just one run and walked 4, but fanned 14. Nine hits in 17.1 innings, but a major leaguer in 2021? Highly unlikely. BUT...just back from injury, and 2 hitless innings, 5 Ks. Intriguing.
J.T. GINN - probably the highest ceiling pitcher in this entire list, since coming back from TJS this year to start his pro career, he is 3-1, 2.44, in 44 innings, with an 0.92 WHIP. Very, very unlikely he gets rushed to the Mets in 2021 under any circumstances, but I'd not be surprised to follow Tylor Megill's giant steps to the Mets in 2022. With very high ceiling talent and enough desperation, perhaps he gets called on in September. Don't bet on it.
OTHER DUDES:
Bryce Montes de Oca now finally healthy in 2021, BMDA has real bullpen fireballer potential but has walked a man per inning - until that is reined in, he cannot move up fast. When he does, he will FLY up.
So there you go, folks - as best as I can tell, this is what the Mets minors now has to offer. For 2021, likely very little. But baseball can be a funny game.
One guy who was shooting up the minors a few years ago was Ryley Gilliam - we were all eager with anticipation - 47 Ks in 28 A ball innings a few years ago - but above A ball, he has been terrible. As in 55 innings, 56 runs terrible.
If you were the GM, who of the above might you use if you were utterly desperate?
I was gonna suggest Kumar, but…
For the real GM, I think he's seen all of this injury cascade, and realizes he needs to go outside for help as needed in 2021. Even Luis Guillorme is hurt and cannot pitch.
9 comments:
It's a nightmare for any mgr to cope with. By the time anyone gets a look, someone else goes down.
Which current Mets on the IL are expected to return by September in addition to Jake and Thor?
Bill - Mets.com has Oswalt, Stock, Reid-Foley and Nogosek coming back in September. They also say Peterson could come back then but other sites have him out for year (which I agree with - they operated on his broken toe just last week)
John, it it is his left foot, I would say Peterson is definitely a 2022 guy. Foot he pushes off from.
Josh Walker may yet get a shot, as may Eric Orze. Possibly Kilome, too.
What is Szapucki timetable?
Szapucki having Ulner nerve surgery won't be back until 2022.
INCLUDING SZAPUCKI'S DRAFT YEAR, THAT'S 7 YEARS, 187 INNINGS, OR AN AVERAGE OF 27 INNINGS PER YEAR.
I wonder if he will have any inning restriction in 2022? I have a suggestion: 187 innings.
MiLB starters who maybe...
You are right on Josh Walker. Plus, he is a "much needed" lefty starter with a promising MiLB stat sheet. I like his chances. But his leaps were large and the Mets brass will have to handle this guy with intelligence of that. I think if handles correctly (bite size) he could possibly be something come later on August and heading into September.
Whatever happened to Dillon Gee anyway?
So what you say are we missin' here Jeffro?
To my eyes, we seem to be missing that batter "el fuego" like, the guy whose shorts are on fire at the plate. I thought maybe Baez would inspire this. Going outside for such a player was the right move overall, although Berrios would have been nice too in combination.
Because of this Covid 19 stuff, it seems like most of MLB teams are to some extent hurting for talent call-ups to assist in their areas of specific needs. It has really hurt this ball club not having their MiLB teams in action in 2020. It has put a damper on the natural progression of talented players looking to step up to the bigs and sort of set their timetable behind one season as well.
It's thin down there. And so the MLB teams 25 man is that much more importante than normally.
What these Mets have to do now.
They have to do a "few things" actually. Here are my thoughts...
1. We don't really know everything about Covid 19/Variants yet. We don't know if the vaccines actually will work much at all at preventing the many worldwide variants out there that "could" come here. They are working on a general vaccine that at best could lessen the severity of all these variants. But vaccines are not the cure people. Only a wishful prevention.
So just trying to give rest to all the starting pitchers and players could prove to be vital going forward in 2021. The information being disseminated from the CDC has been flip/floppy and inconclusive at best. The recent take off your mask advice after being vaccinated was a disgrace. The vaccines were rushed to market and weren't able to receive the proper amount of time (5 years) to adequately study them for true effectiveness longer term. It could be a longtime before we know much more.
2. The Mets need a group of batters to altogether get hot in order to be a real offensive force again. We had that in 2020, but it has not materialized consistently here yet this season. I think it will.
3. The "hamstring issue" here is killing this team. My hamstrings hurt just following this team, I tell ya'! What is that all about though, I ask myself every single week it seems. Are we doing something terribly wrong in the weight room perhaps or in game preparation?
4. Starting pitching woes. Arm issues. TJ surgeries. Arm barks. Again, are we getting our pitchers ready to come into games correctly? Armored suits may not be the answer here. Maybe having six starters (instead of five) wasn't so dumb after all. (See Jerry Manuel.)
5. "ANAL-IDIOTICS"
I hate analytics. It is a traditional game, so why revolutionize it with this. I never liked this crap actually. It's first because it too severely typecasts players into roles based solely upon historical data and their probability, where if players were simply allowed to come into game situations that they have not yet proven themselves dependable, then maybe they could improve. It limits the players development too much.
My hypothetical evidence. Davey Johnson's use of Pineapple Sid Fernandez circa the 1980's, one of my all time favorite left-handed NY Mets starters ever. Sid could be cruising through his game. Then after the fifth inning, Davey takes him out every time. Sid could have a no hitter going through 2/3 of the fifth, and then surrender a seeing eye single up the middle of the infield. And here came Davey Johnson to take him out. It killed me.
Sid learned nothing by this, and actually anticipated Davey taking him out every fifth inning of all his starts. Sid was a very good lefty starter, but perception by Mets management was that he could only go five innings.
Although this is not per se an "analytics case example" with Sid, my point here is that since this game of baseball is still being played by human beings and not some silly looking robots, a player has got to be allowed to improve and extend themselves to their own individualistic maximum talent level.
I never favored analytics because of this reason.
Another good reason why I hate this is the age old notion with this team (and others as well) that a computer can dictate any outcome more effectively than any really baseball shrewd manager with experience ever could. I disagree with this because a wise manager knows his players really well, especially under pressure type situations. I use the Mets usage of ten relievers in one single game as another primal example of this. To me, it just flies in the face of developing a relief pitcher to their own personal maximum potential. They come into games knowing that they will only be "allowed to throw" three stinking pitches and then be yanked like a monkey on a chain. It limits a relief pitcher from ever achieving their own utmost capability.
I think pitching injuries can be summed up as follows: soft throwers get crushed by power bats. Everyone sees that and most try to throw harder and harder. And then blow up.
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