4/30/13

Q and A - Some Talent Evaluations

4 comments



Good morning Mack, I'll try and keep the questions coming. After seeing what guys like Verritt and Lara did y/day and add them to Mateo, Fulmer, Mazzoni, Syndergaard, Leatherstich and others and knowing their just a few of our pitching propects how would you rate their chances of major league success at this point? Also your thoughts on two other guys who haven't gotten much press recently Ceciliani and Muno and one who did but has kinda cooled lately in Wilmer Flores.  Thanks and have a great Sunday, Gary Seagren

Mack:  Thanks for the questions, Gary.

Right now, there is only one pitcher that has a 100% chance of making it in the majors. That’s Zack Wheeler, and, that’s still only a chance. Shit happens in this sport. Arms go dead, arms get hurt and batters hit balls thrown by dead arms. Still, I think we can count on Wheeler beginning in 2014.

My 75% guys are Rafael Montero, Jack Leathersich, and Noah Syndergaard. Montero is a little ahead of the curve, being as dominant as he has been in AA (a prospect league), but he still has to carry his weight at AAA (an ex-MLB league). Big difference. You have to be able to get ballplayers out at have already had some success at the top, rather than striking out the guy you faced in school. I expect Montero and Leather will get their shot out of ST 2014 with Thor joining them on opening day 2015.
Other than that, steak knives at this point in growth.

Jake deGrom, Logan Verrett, Domingo Tapia, Michael Fulmer, Hansel Robles, Luis Mateo, and Cory Mazzoni all show snippets of MLB talent, but it’s far too early. Put it this way… none of these guys can dominate talent wise like the top four names.

Cecilliani and Muno have become secondary players in the system. DC seems a little more talented than Muno, but he's far too streaky with the bat. He also has a long term history of injuries.

Flores just may be the first baseball player that no one cares about.



4 comments:

Charles said...

I agree to some extent Mack.

I'd have to say that of those "bottom" guys you mentioned, M.Fulmer also has a great chance of making it to and excelling in the bigs.

He was one of the youngest pitchers in the SAL and got progressively better as the season wore on. Plus, even in the first half he was pretty good. He went from throwing 4 or 5 innings every start, to 6 or 7 by the end of the year; walking less hitters while striking out more. He's got a great chance to become a SP2 or 3.

Despite Wheeler's struggles, he's still the top dog. When you consider just how bad the Mets' bullpens have been, I could certainly see them building a homegrown and dominant one using a lot of these guys. Tapia, deGrom, and Mazzoni are my picks for future bullpen arms.

Of the Cyclonr staff that dominated last year and have now been slotted into different teams, I think Mateo is a possible SP2 and Gnoa is another possible SP3. Gnoa is also only 19 yrs old, still developing physically, and with that comes added velo. He certainly has a chance at becoming a top 10 Mets prospect by the end of the year.

Best Lefty Starter: Matz....if healthy, he could end up being the guy that gets somebody pushed to the trade market. The Mets have a ton of right handed pitching prospects and it'll be hard once their rotation is set to unseat one of them. Matz, however, is a powerful left hander. The one guy who could push the Mets to trade a solidified member of their rotation.

I agree with your assessments, and there's no chance they all make it., but if half reach their potential the Mets will be in great shape.

Mack Ade said...

The only reason I don't rate the A+/A pitchers higher is the fact that they simply can't be evaluated yet past their projected ceiling.

Even Fulmer... he needs to dominate at A+ first.

Charles said...

I agree and understand. Look at Wheeler and his numbers. It's hard to make precise predictions before AA.

The point though is the amount of legit future starters they could have.

Wheeler sp1
Synder sp1
Fulmer sp 2/3
Mateo sp2/3
Gnoa sp3
Montero sp2/3
deGrom sp3
Matz 2/3
Verret sp5
Tapia sp3

Am I forgetting anyone? Possibly the 2013 first rounder?

All could or should be ready by 2016 and that is only Gnoa and Matz.

There's still Mazzoni, Pill, and McHugh who all could end up in a ML bullpen or starting somewhere else. If Sandy can't put together a dominant rotation and bullpen by 2015, we should get the tar and feathers and march to Flushing looking for him.

There's definately a huge trade in the cards.

Mack Ade said...

Charlie, the bottom line is the Mets are going to have a quality rotation in 2014 and a superb one in 2015 and beyond.

I believe in "best plaer available" and the quicker you produce quality arms, the easier it is to pry away what you need.


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