Hardball Talk - Top 150 Free Agents for 2014

1. Robinson Cano (2B Yankees – Age 31): Cano’s status as the winter’s top free agent is undisputed, but it remains to be seen who will compete with the Yankees for his services. The Dodgers were the obvious choice, but they’ve added Cuban defector Alexander Guerrero for second and still have to sign Clayton Kershaw to a long-term deal. Seattle perhaps? It’d be nice to see the Orioles flex some muscle and make a big bid, but it’s not their style. Maybe a usual suspect like the Tigers or Rangers could make some noise. Cano will probably get $200 million regardless, but it’s going to take a mystery team or two to get him up to $250 million.

2013 stats: .314/.383/.516, 27 HR, 81 R, 107 RBI, 7 SB in 605 AB

2. Jacoby Ellsbury (OF Red Sox – Age 30): After an MVP-type 2011 and an injured and unproductive 2012, Ellsbury basically settled right back in at his career numbers last season. The 32-homer outburst from 2011 looks like it might go down as a Brady Anderson-like outlier, but Ellsbury is still plenty valuable even without the power. Also, he’s entering free agency at a great time, with the Rangers, Mariners and Mets in definite need of leadoff hitters. Even teams like the Yankees, Tigers, Nationals and Phillies can’t be ruled out. The Red Sox would love to have him back, too, but someone is going to give him Carl Crawford money (seven years, $142 million) and Boston isn’t likely to match.

2013 stats: .298/.355/.426, 9 HR, 92 R, 53 RBI, 52 SB in 577 AB

x. Masahiro Tanaka (RHP Japan – Age 24): Tanaka isn’t a free agent, but if he were, he’d be No. 3 on the list. Expectations are that he’ll be posted this month, though MLB and the NPB are currently working on coming to terms on a new posting agreement. My guess is that the team that signs Tanaka will end up making a commitment that rivals the one Ellsbury will get. However, Tanaka himself will probably end up with just about half that money, with the rest going to his club in Japan, the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles. He should be valued as a $20 million-per-year pitcher, though. The Yankees, Dodgers and Rangers are all expected to be very much involved.

2013 stats: 24-0, 1.27 ERA, 183/32 K/BB in 212 IP

3. Shin-Soo Choo (OF Reds – Age 31): Choo had almost 70 points of OBP on Ellsbury last season, but since he shouldn’t be viewed as a center fielder going forward, he’s probably not in for quite as big of a contract. That’s not say he’ll be hurting. The Reds should make an effort to bring him back, the Rangers, Mets and Mariners are among the teams that could use his leadoff skills and perhaps the Red Sox would consider him for left if Ellsbury departs. He seems destined for a nine-figure deal that would top the five-year, $90 million extension Hunter Pence agreed to with the Giants.

2013 stats: .285/.423/.462, 21 HR, 107 R, 54 RBI, 20 SB in 569 AB

4. Matt Garza (RHP Rangers – Age 30): Garza didn’t fare particularly well in his return to the American League, going 4-5 with a 4.38 ERA in his 13 starts after being traded from the Cubs to the Rangers. There are also lingering doubts about his arm after he missed the second half of 2012 with a stress reaction in his elbow. Still, he has the best combination of track record and relative youth of any of the free agent starters, which should earn him a five- or six-year deal. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s the one elite free agent who won’t cost a draft pick; because he was traded at midseason, the Rangers can’t get compensation for losing him. He’d seem to be a lock to get at least $80 million this winter, and $100 million may not be out of reach.

2013 stats: 10-6, 3.82 ERA, 136/42 K/BB in 155 1/3 IP

5. Ervin Santana (RHP Royals – Age 31): The Angels gave Santana away to the Royals rather than pay him $13 million in 2013. He’ll be much more costly this time around after finishing with a career-best 3.24 ERA in 211 innings. That he does give up a lot of homers will likely scare away some teams that play in smaller ballparks, but it won’t stop him from getting about $18 million per year. Despite the old concerns about his shoulder, he’s made 30 starts in four straight seasons now. He’s made at least 23 in all eight of his seasons in the big leagues.

The rest of the list... http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/01/hardballtalks-top-150-free-agents-for-2014/