3/19/14

Morning Report – 3-19-14 – Dan-Chat, Grandy, Recruiting Myths, Rafael, Game Notes




Coming Up –

        10 am -  Reese Kaplan - Let the Hot Grill Season Begin!

        12 noon –  Mack – My Half Empty Is Half Empty

2 pm –  MLB-COM - Top 25 Chicago Cubs Prospects

4 pm -    Baseball Cube - Transactions

6 pm -     1B - J.D. Davis - Cal State Fullerton

8 pm –   Jakson Reetz, Kyle Schwarber, J.J. Schwartz, Monte Harrison


Joe Giglio @JoeGiglioSports  -  From the responses on Twitter, it seems like Mets fans want nothing to do with a Rollins trade. Fair, but enjoy Ruben Tejada!


Marc Carig @MarcCarig  -  Harvey and Mets haven't had talk yet about where he'll rehab. But Harvey makes it clear once more that preference is still NYC. Harvey is also aware of his rights under the CBA to determine where he’ll spend his time this summer.

        Mack – Boy, I don’t like where this is going…


Dan-Chat –

Comment From JT - Some of the recent meteors of planet eating destruction seem to have skewed our expectations for even top prospects and immediate success. Who are a few slower to get going guys you like for continued growth and more success in 2014?

Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly high on Jenrry Mejia still. Nolan Arenado’s bat will be better – his BABIP should have been higher. Wherever he ends up, Nick Franklin’s BA won’t be as low as 2013

Comment From don zimmer - Aloha – I’ll be looking at rolling the dice between Axford, Nate Jones, Parnell, Hunter, and Veras for an RP slot. What does your gut and/or brain say?

Dan Szymborski: I like Parnell the mosts of that group.


Grandy –

       I do like the Granderson, but thought they overpaid him by about $3 MIL a year.  I think he club 20 HRs, hit about .250/.350/.450 for his duration, so it may buck my theory of the Richard Pryor Film. There is only one problem, he will strikeout a ton, and mixed in a lineup with Ike Davis and Chris Young, goodness gracious. One also has to remember exactly how flawed he was against Left Handed pitching when he came over to the Bronx.  The Yankees fixed his swing. I also worry about him not playing in a favorable HR park.  When you factor in Nats Park, New Marlins Park and Turner Field, this represent nearly 70% of your yearly games played in pitchers parks. This if far different from biding your time in Yankees Stadium, Fenway Park, The Rogers Center and Camden Yards for the same amount. http://mlbreports.com/2014/03/17/nymsotu2014/


Recruiting Myths –

       High school statistics matter.– While yes, a player’s statistical performance in high school does matter to an extent, many out there in the baseball world put far too much emphasis on them.  College coaches concentrate much more on a player’s “tools”, (size, speed, strength, etc.), mechanics, and baseball IQ than their batting average or ERA.  What does this mean for a player?  Don’t get too caught up in the numbers.  If you fall short of where you want to be, don’t get discouraged and if you have a great year, don’t be satisfied.  Either way it is important to constantly work on every aspect of your game.  College coaches look for players with potential and upside, not just those who have certain numbers.  So, if you hear someone say something like “you have to hit .400 to play Division 1,” don’t believe them. http://recruitingcycle.com/top-5-most-common-baseballrecruiting-myths/


Rafael –

       Rafael Montero, P, New York Mets - After splitting his time in 2013 between a dominant stint in Double-A and a very impressive stint in Las Vegas to close the season, Montero finds himself knocking on the door of a rotation spot in Queens. Right now, he has one big thing in his favor and another in his way. On the positive side, the fourth and fifth starters for the Mets right now appear to be John Lannan (intimidating) and Daisuke Matsuzaka (seriously), so it might seem easy to break in after a short period of time, right? Unfortunately, the competition for any openings may be fierce between fellow Top 101 prospect (and Thor enthusiast) Noah Syndergaard, and the reason for so many LOL Mets jokes back at the beginning of the decade, Jenrry Mejia.
This spring, Montero has continued to do what he generally does, throw strikes and keep runs off the scoreboard. With a 3.00 ERA in nine innings, he’s not forcing the issue to start the season, but he is reminding the organization that he’s just about ready should a need arise. However, maybe it would be in his best long-term interest to stop pitching well, as there are now rumors floating around that the Mets may look to carry Montero in the bullpen to start the season, which would be just about the most Mets thing ever. Despite the competition, I still expect Montero to be in the rotation within the first two months of the season given the likely ineffectiveness of their back-end starters—and that’s not even mentioning the injury risk of Bartolo Colon and Jon Niese. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=23060


Game Notes –

       -I need a good game…

       -first of all, I love the lineup. Other than Eric Campbell on 1B, we’re pretty close to what the opening day would look like. That being said, what with the slowness of healing from Lucas Duda and Ike Davis and the effectiveness of Campbell’s bat (10-32, .313), he could be that extra player that comes north on March 31st to open up as the ‘other’ first baseman (Josh Satin).

       - Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN - May be his last time here for a little bit, but Joe McIlvaine has arrived for today's Mets-Tigers game.

       -Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN  - Noah Syndergaard dominating in minor-league intrasquad game. Has tossed 2 scoreless innings so far. 96-97 mph. Walked 2 in second inning

       -Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN  -  Scouts on back fields really raving about Mets pitching, even guy getting less hype. One really loves Logan Verrett's sinker.

       -See? First inning for Dice-K… run given up… like it had eyes… very slow… missing spots… excellent catch in CF by Lagares stops the bleeding…

       -I see that Ezequiel Carrera is in the lineup. He was considered a Mets prospect around 2007. The Mets traded Carrera along with Endy Chávez, Aaron Heilman, Mike Carp, and Jason Vargas to the Seattle Mariners in a 12-player deal on December 10, 2008

       -Mets go pop out, pop out, strike out in the first…

       -Dice-K still trying to find the zone in the second… everything is going into deep counts… sandwiched a single with two strikeouts… Lagares makes another run saving catch in center.

       -Erik Campbell (.333) homers… this is the potential I’ve been talking about…

       -Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN -   Doubtful. Not on 40, whereas Brown, Lutz, Kirk, den Dekker, Flores are.  Mets are probably going to need to free one 40-man spot with Valverde, Quintanilla, Matsuzaka and Lannan likely needing to be added… Don't know who Mets would drop from 40-man roster, but one scout figured it would be Wilfredo Tovar. Could see Ryan Reid also.  -  RT @charley047: Can Campbell play himself on to the club going north?

       -Dice-K threw a 92mph FB to Miquel Carrera followed by a ball that still hasn’t landed… starting to get up in the ST pitch count…

(Dice-K is not one of those pitchers that’s going to give you a 1-ht shutout anymore. No, he’s surrender 3-4 runs over 6-7 innings and you are going to have to win these games with your bats and your pen)

-Mets third… d’Arnaud walks… Lagares force out… Lagres steals second, goes to third on throwing error… Eric Young ground out (no manuafactured run)… Chris Young walks… Wright ends inning…

-As I predicted, Dice-K continued to give up runs…  this time a Tyler Collins 2-run homer… spring ERA now 5.40… (would TC please stop telling the beat reporter hat he’s ‘doing fine’?)

(this is the point in these ST games that I start to lose interest… I wake up every morning in hopes of a great Mets win to write about, but then comes the no-bats, which this year have been followed by the poor pitching… Detroit seems to be playing with us this year… I’m going for a 30 minute walk…)

    -Adam Rubin @AdamRubinESPN  -  Eric Campbell adds a double to his homer today. Not going to make squad, but having fantastic camp. #Tigers 4, #Mets 2, bot 6

       -Obviously I missed the obligatory late inning rally with the subs… this one included a wild pitch for the tying run… and it’s good to see that one of the few bright spots in Mets pitching this spring, Jeurys Familia, is still scoreless for the spring season.

       Michael Baron @michaelgbaron  -  Noah: 4 IP, 1 H, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K in minors intrasquad

       Bobby Parnell had a wonderful 1-2-3 9h inning.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

While I enjoyed seeing Parnell go 1-2-3 in the 9th.....his fastball was sitting between 85mph and 88mph...

The lack of velocity progress is making me nervous.

Tom Brennan said...

I think we're in for a rough April.

Mack Ade said...

Chris -

And, he keeps saying this is normal. What are we, 12 days away from opening day?

Mack Ade said...

Thomas -

five bats are going to have to wake up and three arms are going to have to start throwing balls past bats...
right now, April looks dismal for 60% of the games played.

Michi L. said...

I know I know its a trite topic but Wilmer looked really ok yesteeday

Anonymous said...

@Michi

Yes he did....

I may be crazy but I think Flores may have opened up a competition for SS.

Tom Brennan said...

Absent a trade, Wilmer may get the nod at SS, because you cannot have almost an entire team not hitting or the whole thing could shut down. wilmer has hit OK after a very cold start. he has 10 more days to heat up. maybe he does not start every game right out of the chute at SS, but they need offense more than the defense. They can always substitute D later in games.

Yesterday continued the trend of those who will be gone or on fringe hitting, and those who will be there still hitting little. 10 days to awaken from slumber.

On a promising note, Duda hit very well in a few days pre-injury, and has hit very well the last two intrasquad games - maybe (and I know it is too much for a Met fan to ask) he surprises everyone to the upside as he starts to play for real vs. righty pitchers.

Ike's career is undergoing more compression than his compression socks.

Anonymous said...

@Tom

I agree. I can see Tejada and Flores splitting time. Tejada getting starts when pure contact pitchers such as Matsuzaka and Colon are on the mound and Flores getting the starts when the more K/contact blended Niese and Gee start. As the K guy, Flores should also get the nod in games Wheeler starts.

Mack Ade said...

Re Flores at SS -

Flores will never have the speed or range to be a Golden Glove candidate at short, but neither would Nick Franklin.

2014 is a wash for me.

I would give the position to Wilmer and let him have a go at it until something better comes along.

Tejada would be an upgrade at middle infield UT over Q

Bob Sugar said...

You giving up on 2014 Mack?

Mack Ade said...

Sugar -

Yes, I already have. My prediction was 4th place at best and that may be a stretch. I see everything going wrong this year. Everything.

That doesn't mean this team doesn't have a decent future and 2015 could be a complete turnaround, but not unless this management let's the talented kids take over the roster.