Stephen Guilbert- End of April Mock Draft- Top 10 Picks

The Mets added a blue chip first baseman last year, selecting Dominic Smith with the #11 pick. Who will they be able to add in 2014? 

1.) Houston Astros- LHP Carlos Rodon- NC State

Most of the mocks still have HS LHP Brady Aiken as the first prep lefty ever taken #1 overall. I still have the Astros going with Rodon. No, he has not been as dominant as you want from a #1 overall but there were questions about Mark Appel as well and the Astros were not shy about taking him #1 last year. I see them as having their sights set on Rodon for months now and I do not see it changing.

2.) Miami Marlins- LHP Brady Aiken- California HS

I reallllyyy want to say either Tyler Kolek or Alex Jackson here. I think the Marlins will go with a dominant high schooler here (if the Astros take Rodon) and they have had so much success with another flamethrower out of high school in Jose Fernandez that I could see them taking Kolek. They could also see Alex Jackson as a true catcher and see him as too valuable to pass. For now, the consensus is Aiken is the guy, so we'll go with him for now.

*Note on Alex Jackson: He's a very solid defensive backstop. The question is not so much "Does he have the skill set to eventually be a positive defensive contributor behind the plate at the big league level?" but "Will whichever team wants to draft him convert him to the outfield to preserve his body and get more years and offensive production out of him?" If a team believes in Jackson as a catcher, he should go within the first four picks and could contend for #1. The bat is that good.

3.) Chicago White Sox- RHP Jeff Hoffman- East Carolina

I have been a Hoffman fan for a while and had him within the first few picks even after his poor start to the 2014 season. I cannot see the White Sox passing on Hoffman--a college righty with absolutely nasty stuff and results to back it up. I imagine they have had their eye on him for a while and he should be around by their pick. I could see them going with Kolek here as well (but not so much Jackson) or Nola or Beede, but most likely Hoffman.

4.) Chicago Cubs- RHP Tyler Kolek- Texas HS

Kolek could go #1. He's got size. He has hit 102 MPH. He throws good off-speed pitches. He's absolutely dominated his opposers (could you imagine being a 15-year-old sophomore who has made his first varsity team and has to face 102 MPH? Geesh). I would be absolutely shocked if he fell past the Cubs. The Cubbies have done an excellent job choosing the best player on the board and they do so again here. If it's Aiken, they'll take him. If it's Jackson, he'll go. As of now, the Texas behemoth is the guy.

5.) Minnesotta Twins- C/OF/IF Alex Jackson- California HS

Twins cannot pass on Jackson here. The bat is far too good and regardless of whether or not the Twins convert him into an outfielder or third baseman, they get another blue chip prospect for their impressive system. As an outfielder, Jackson should be quick to the bigs as well and would join Buck Buxton and Miguel Sano as one of the most dangerous young lineups come 2018.

6.) Seattle Mariners- RHP Aaron Nola- LSU

I had this spot marked for Tyler Beede. I saw it as a perfect fit--Beede should be available and the Mariners will want him. Then Aaron Nola became the most effective collegiate pitcher. He was very very good last year but this year he has been untouchable. Even a rough two and a half starts over the past couple weeks have barely dented his video game stats: 1.40 ERA, 77.1 innings, 95 strikeouts, 11.06 K/9 (8th best in NCAA), 0.85 WHIP (15th). Yes, the fastball "only" reaches 92 MPH and he is more of a finesse pitcher than you typically find in the top 6 picks in a draft but let's put it this way--he's beyond where Mike Leake, a good player comparison, was at this point in the year. He has put up insane numbers and has the polish you want in a college pitcher. He will also be the quickest to the bigs of any of the players in the draft and the Mariners will want a pitcher who can help them soon. This is as sure a pick as you can have at this point.

7.) Philadelphia Phillies- RHP Tyler Beede- A lot of mocks have the Phillies going shortstop here with either Trea Turner or Nick Gordon coming off the board. I think the Phillies go either Beede or Freeland. They won their championship on the back of really good starting pitching. They lack the impact arms in their system and just drafted a blue chip shortstop prospect in J.P. Crawford last year. Sure, you take the best player on the board, and that is probably Gordon at this point but I cannot help but think that there is a string of college starters that goes off the board with potentially Hoffman-Nola-Beede-Freeland going in succession. You could even through Newcomb in there as well as a potential top 10 guy.

8.) Colorado Rockies- LHP Kyle Freeland- The Rockies are building their rotation for a future annual playoff team. They could go shortstop here as well or add a very good looking Bradley Zimmer here for their outfield. However I see a lot of love for Freeland recently. He is insanely talented, would be quick to the bigs, and offers a lefty foil to Jon Gray that could be just nasty in a couple of years.

9.) Toronto Blue Jays- SS Nick Gordon- Florida HS

The Blue Jays are surprised to see Gordon on the board and are happy to take the best player available. Gordon could be a pitcher but the Jays will keep him as a shortstop. Gordon has elite speed, projectable power, a very good batting eye and contact ability, and likely the best arm from shortstop in the draft. Gordon should take 4-5 years to get to the bigs, perfect timing for Reyes' expiring contract.

10.) New York Mets- SS Trea Turner- NC State

The options are: Bradley Zimmer, Sean Reid-Foley, Jacob Gatewood, Michael Gettys, and Touki Toussaint. Mike Papi, Sean Newcomb, and Derek Fisher could get looks here as well, but the clear choice, to me, is Turner. He is an extremely athletic, dynamic, impressive shortstop that could fill two huge holes for the Mets within two years of being drafted--shortstop and leadoff hitter. He has game-changing speed, has a very solid glove, and more power than you would expect. He is one of those players that could hit 20 homers and steal 50 bases and that sort of production cannot be passed on at #10. I would be very happy with Zimmer as well, but if Turner is on the board, he has to be the choice.


--Stephen