Tom Brennan - HOW METS' PITCHERS DO IN THEFT PROTECTION

RUNNING THIEF WEARING MASK AND SOCIAL DISTANCING - 2ND BASE BAG IN SACK

Stolen bases can sometimes make or break a baseball game.

I got to thinking about stolen bases indirectly.  I thought about John Smoltz splitting his career so well between starter and reliever.  Smoltzie had a 3.40 career ERA as a starter, but a 2.41 ERA in relief.  A run per 9 innings better in relief.

Which got me thinking about one of the Mets' own tall power righties, Noah Syndergaard.  He has a career 3.31 ERA as a starter.  Then I imagined him as a closer, throwing filthy sliders and 100 MPH cheese.

Then I thought about the stolen base rate.  

Logically, the better a pitcher's stolen-bases-against %, and the less frequently those attempts occur, the more successful that pitcher will be - and vice versa.

I saw a table maintained by Rudy at Razzball.com, where from 2015-18, Syndergaard allowed 87% (97 of 112) of steal attempts to succeed.  

True, I know that the catcher's speed of release and arm also play key roles. But 87% is 87%.  

The table also noted that hitters were not oblivious to this inability to prevent steals. Batters stole a base on him once every 5.3 IP in that span, a really high frequency.  

Ask any pilferer worth his salt:  

Thieves steal more when the chances of successful larceny are very high. 

Smoltz in his career allowed steals on just 64% of attempts, and there was only a steal every 12.2 innings.  Big, big difference from Thor.

As great as Syndergaard might otherwise be as a closer, his inability to control the running game would make his use out of the pen very unlikely (and, were it to occur, very nerve-wracking any time a guy with any speed would get on base).

The Mets have talked about Steve Matz possibly coming out of the pen.  

But let me "steal" a moment of your time to say this: 

From 2015-2018, he allowed 88% of runners to succeed (60 of 68), with a steal every 6.5 IP.  Suddenly that option seems a bit shaky, too.  Andy Pettitte picking guys off Matz is not.

Between stolen base rates and the high frequency of attempts, those two, in fact, seemed to score out worse than any other pitchers in the majors over that period in those regards.

By contrast, over the same period, the guy who seemed to grade out the best, Zach Greinke, allowed just 17 of 41 in steals (41.5%) over those 4 seasons, and just a steal every 46.5 innings!  Wow.

How do other key Mets do?  

Comfortingly, much better than Thor and Matz.

Jacob deGrom from 2015-18 allowed 67% of steal attempts to succeed, a solid number.  And a steal every 18 IP.  Fear of getting caught suppresses the urge to steal.

Marcus Stroman?  72% from 2015-18, but just one steal every 19.1 IP.  Also very solid.

OK, and the guy many Mets fans now covet, Trevor Bauer?

Bauer allowed just 31 of 55 (56%), and a steal once every 23.1 IP.  Not Greinke-like, but pretty superb nonetheless.

Steals matter a great deal when it comes to winning or losing. 

As such, the rehabbing Thor and the reinventing Matz clearly have their work cut out for them in that regard, if they want to increase their overall effectiveness.