Reese Kaplan -- Projected Totals With Lindor and CF May Be Better Than Gimenez and Springer

It’s become an old argument already but one worth repeating here about the George Springer desire felt by a great many Mets fans.  To hear them tell the story, the Mets were destined for great success by securing the free agent Springer to play center field and to allow fielder extraordinaire Andres Gimenez play shortstop.  

My counter argument all along was that the combined stats of these two players are impressive but not necessarily the best you could hope to get.  Let’s combine Gimenez’ last full season in the minors with George Springer’s last full season in the majors to see what you’d get.

Gimenez was not known in the minors for his bat.  In 2019 for Binghamton he hit .250 with 9 HRs, 37 RBIs and 28 SBs (to go along with 16 caught stealings).  Baseball Reference had him projected for a pretty decent 2021 with a .263 AVG, 10 HRs, 40 RBIs and 26 SBs (caught only three times!).  His 93 Ks were a bit concerning for a singles hitter, but not out of control.

Springer has a much longer track record in the majors and his 2019 full season was arguably his best.  He hit .292 with 39 HRs, 96 RBIs and 6 SBs.  His projection by Baseball Reference for 2021 is not quite as rosy, with the average tempered down to his career mark of .270 with 35 HRs and 93 RBIs, along with 10 SBs (and 6 times caught stealing).  

Combined you’re looking around .267 with 49 HRs 136 RBIs and 36 SBs.  For that you would pay probably $25 million for Springer and just under $600K for Gimenez.  That’s pretty impressive and understandable why fans felt this combination was worth pursuing.  Gimenez looked like he might someday contend for a Gold Glove and Springer has been very solid in center field for as long as his body will allow him to continue to play there.

My side of the argument with friends had always been, “What about trading for Francisco Lindor to play shortstop?”  No one ever took me seriously that such a transaction could ever happen and they felt that the price in players given up to make it happen would be astronomical.  

Well, obviously the trade did happen and right now the most conspicuous player changing sides is the much maligned Amed Rosario who had been showing speed and power before his drop off the cliff in 2020.  The lower minor prospects are still great unknowns but well regarded, even if they are not among the top 6 in the ratings charts.  Gimenez is what he is.  Some feel he will be the next Ozzie Smith.  Other think the next Rey Ordonez.  I would compromise and say the next Frank Taveras -- good for speed, competent in the field but not really a slugger.  

So what do the Mets have now that Lindor is coming to Queens at least for the 2021 season?  Well, his last four full seasons included four All Star appearances, two Gold Gloves and a pile of home runs and stolen bases.  Over that period an average season for him would feature a .284 AVG, 31 HRs, 88 RBIs and 22 SBs to go along with that stellar defense.  That’s pretty much on par with what Springer did for the Astros plus some additional baserunning speed.

Now the question becomes who plays center field for the Mets and how would those numbers aggregate to present a comparison to the projected Gimenez/Springer total?  Well, Brandon Nimmo won’t make anyone forget Willie Mays’ defense in his prime, but he is pretty capable with the bat.  He is projected to hit .258 with 17 HRs and 58 RBIs as a regular player along with his enviable .390 OBP.  Add that to projection for Lindor and you get 48 HRs, 146 RBIs and a batting average slightly higher for this tandem than the much projected one.  Nimmo is projected to earn about $4 million in arbitration, so combined with Lindor’s salary, this better production comes at a slightly lower cost.  

Of course, Nimmo is not the only option out there.  The Mets could make a play for Jackie Bradley, Jr.  He is known much more for his glove than for his bat, but he’s not Juan Lagares in terms of futility.  He averages 18 HRs and 70 RBIs per season.  That would make for an even bigger gap with Lindor than Nimmo would provide while also dramatically increasing the defense up the middle.  Guesses as to the 30 year old’s salary are in the $8 to $10 million per season as clubs are crying poverty and his career .239 batting average will weigh heavily against him.  

Some have mentioned possibilities like Kevin Kiermaier who plies his trade for the Tampa Bay Rays.  He’s a brilliant fielder for sure with three Gold Gloves on his shelf.  His offensive numbers are similar to Nimmo with an average of 16 HRs and 57 RBIs plus 22 SBs.  The issue with Kiermair is you could say he’s a bit overpaid, earning just over $11 million in 2021, just over $12 million in 2022 and holds a $13 million salary or $2.5 million buyout for 2023.  So, in addition to paying him more money, you would also have to give up player resources to bring another left handed hitter to the Mets.  It doesn’t seem like a smart move.

Some mention Kevin Pillar as an option.  He’s a better fielder than Nimmo, though not in the same class as Jackie Bradley, Jr. or Kevin Kiermaier.  He is a right handed hitter who gives you Nimmo-class offense and probably wouldn’t cost more than the same $4 million that Nimmo will take home via arbitration.  To me he’s a marginal improvement, not an earth shattering one.  

The long time Dodger Kike Hernandez is one of those play-him-anywhere types who has logged a lot of time in center field as well.  He’s also give you a right handed version of Nimmo’s production with the versatility to substitute in the corners as well as having played every other position on the field (including pitcher) with the exception of donning catching gear.  He is very well liked in the clubhouse and at age 29 would command probably about $5 million per year for his versatility.

There are other trade candidates throughout baseball, including the Toronto Blue Jays who may have put Randal Grichuk among the candidates if they sign George Springer.  Grichuk is someone who never hit the superstar levels with his bat that many felt he was capable of doing, but he’s good for a year of 30 HRs and 79 RBIs with a Curtis Granderson-like .240 average.  He and Marcus Stroman had a Twitter spat recently, but Stroman is on the final year of his contract, so it may not matter. The issue with him is similar to trying to get Kiermaier.  He will earn a tick over $10 million per year for each for the next three years.  That’s not good.  What is good, however, is the combined offensive total of Lindor and Grichuk.  

Another way to go would be to cull someone’s top AAA prospect in center field from a club who already has a veteran established at that position.  The good thing about this approach is the minimum wage commitment and the six years of control.  The bad news is that many youngsters come up with people thinking Mike Trout and instead you get performance reeking like 6 day-old fish.  Still, it’s an option to consider as well and such a trade wouldn’t require very much going back the other way.  Nimmo could go in return for a right handed prospect, but that would leave Dom Smith as the left fielder.  Nothing is a perfect scenario.