Yesterday the front office made the move to trade away catcher Matt Dyer and pitcher Tommy Hunter to acquire the 41 year old starting pitcher Rich Hill from the Rays. What they gave up isn’t considered that much of a sacrifice. The low A right handed catcher is 23 and hitting sub-Mendoza for the 2021 season in St. Lucie. At .194 with 7 HRs and 29 RBIs in 124 ABs.
The power production numbers are indeed good and would extrapolate out to a 30 HR hitter over the course of a full season, but he accompanied the RBI bat with 47 strikeouts which is over 33%. Given his age and his inability to hit anything but mistakes, it’s not likely he’s the second coming of Johnny Bench. In fact, you’d have to wonder if he even has Johnny Benchwarmer in his future.
The 35 year old Tommy Hunter has shifted around the leagues for fourteen years. In 2021 he pitched briefly for the Mets for 8 innings in which he didn’t allow a single run. However, then he was hurt and has been on the 60-day IL ever since. For his career he does have a winning record of 56-45 with a 4.04 ERA. He has good control but his average season is only good for about 6 Ks per 9 IP. He’s had time with the Orioles (twice), the Rangers, the Cubs, the Phillies, the Indians and now returns for his second stint with the Rays. The big right hander is only earning $100K for the season, so the Rays come out ahead dollar-wise.
Big lefty Rich Hill signed with Tampa for a modest $2.5 million contract for the season. In May he was Pitcher of the Month, but it’s been a downhill performance ever since then. Coming to the Mets now he sports a 3.87 ERA with a winning 6-4 record. He’s been walking a few too many batters but is keeping them from scoring with a WHIP of just 1.164. He strikes out about 1 per inning pitched and his 19 starts suggest his health at age 41 is not really a question, though he does top out at about 5 IP per start. Think of him as a southpaw Bartolo Colon at a much more modest price.
Obviously the Mets need to do a lot more than this deal (and the minor one sending DFA’d Billy McKinney to the Giants for a minor leaguer named Carlos Rincon. The 23 year old right handed hitter is hitting .263 in AA with 12 HRs and 48 RBIs in less than half a season’s worth of ABs. He doesn’t have much base running speed but twice in his minor league career eclipsed the 20 HR plateau (and was well on his way to doing so again this year). This move was primarily to clear the roster of someone who delivered some nice RBIs in spots this season, but really wasn’t a part of the long term plans.
While a lot of time has been spent discussing the pros and cons of a prospective Kris Bryant trade, the fact is the flames are becoming a bit more intense lately about a multiplayer package to the Twins for starting pitcher Jose Berrios and third baseman Josh Donaldson.
Berrios is performing more or less like Rich Hill, with a 7-4 record over 19 starts with a 3.69 ERA. He is doing well with a 3:1 walk to strikeout ratio and giving up very few hits. He is under contract not only for this season but for 2022 as well. Given the Mets’ vulnerability in the rotation with potentially both Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman departing as free agents, getting a renewable pitching resource is not a bad idea at all.
The sticking point here would seem to be Donaldson who has had some health issues but seemed to deliver despite time letting his body heal. In 2021 he is hitting just .246 (which is about what the rest of the Mets are doing) but has hit 15 HRs and driven in 41. The issue isn’t his offensive production, but the fact he is under contract for the remainder of this year, 2022 and 2023 plus an option for 2024 at $21.5 million per season and an $8 million buyout for 2024 if the Mets opt not to bring him back at age 38. Now it’s possible that he would produce more HRs and RBIs per season for less money than the likely departing-as-a-free-agent Michael Conforto. However, you’re looking at 2+ years (perhaps 3+) for Donaldson whereas Conforto would be around a lot longer.
The issue for the Mets is how much Conforto will be offered on the open market given his pitfiful 2021 season. He’s certainly looking like he’s not worth the QO which would pay him nearly $20 million but guarantee the Mets a draft pick if he departs in free agency as his agent Scott Boras would encourage. Generally, building for the future doesn’t start with players already over age 35, but the team already invested in a trade for a 41-year-old pitcher, so perhaps age isn’t as big an issue to them. The difference is Hill can be cut loose at the end of the year with no financial repercussions but Donaldson would be on the payroll through at least the end of 2023.
With today being July 24th there is less than a week for these types of decisions to be made. Giving up major prospects or ill-fitting pieces like J.D. Davis as part of a deal to land Berrios and Donaldson may not sit too well with the fans. Then again, if it means October baseball, then perhaps all would be forgiven. Zack Scott and his minions have quite a lot of thinking to do between now and the impending trade deadline.
2 comments:
It was a good move to get Hill. He was brilliant for a while, mediocre but competent lately.
Berries? If they think Jake is hurt, they better. If not, depend on if Cookie is expected to resume his excellence of the past and if they think Thor will really be ready come Sept 1.
Reese, got to disagree with you. The Mets starting eight is as offensively talented as any. I'd keep JD for balance of year and look for a replacement in 2022. As far as pitching goes I'd like to shore up bullpen. I'm ok with our stable of starters.
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