Paul Articulates - Finding another quality arm

The CBA is agreed to, spring training has started, and MLB clubs are furiously trying to finalize their rosters with trades and free agent signings.  Consensus amongst Mets writers is that the addition of some quality arms should be the top priority for Billy Eppler, Buck Showalter, and the front office staff.  That is where consensus ends, as everyone has their own favorites for who to add and how much we (we=Steve Cohen) should spend.

In today’s article, instead of making a case for a specific pitcher or two, I will focus on the important factors to consider as the front office goes about choosing the right arms:

1) Injury history – there’s no crystal ball that will predict some injuries, but players with a long history of injury-interrupted seasons should be assigned a high risk.  There may be mechanical flaws in their delivery that wear out body parts prematurely due to repetitive stress.

2) Consistent output – when a pitcher accumulates solid innings pitched year over year, it shows a commitment to conditioning and mental preparation that bodes well for more good years.

3) Performance trends – career statistics are a great indicator of overall capability, but the numbers can sometimes be clouded by factors that should be discounted – such as a season impacted by a nagging injury or a record tainted by poor run support.  Look for trends in performance to project future results, ignoring spikes and dips due to uncontrollable factors.

4) Opponents – you can argue WHIP and ERA all day, but it is very important to consider how a pitcher’s stats are accumulated.  If you are pitching in a pitcher-friendly park against weak-hitting division opponents, your stats may be overrated. 

5) Environment – A pitcher’s home ballpark has a significant effect on statistical performance since roughly half of their time on the mound is spent there.  There are plenty of resources available to develop weighting factors for this consideration.  My favorite is the swishanalytics.com site, where they have developed statistical comparisons between ballparks for batting average, slugging percentage, and runs. 

So let’s put this to the test with a few examples. 

Some have speculated that the Mets should sign 32 year-old free agent pitcher Sonny Gray.  With the Reds in 2021, Gray spent 3 stints on the IL with a groin injury and a rib cage strain.  He spent time on the IL in 2016 with a forearm strain and 2017 with a shoulder strain.  These are all fairly minor for major league pitchers and he has accumulated over 130 innings pitched in six of his seven full seasons in the majors (2020 excluded).  

His WHIP has been fairly consistent around his career average of 1.220, and his strike-outs per 9 innings have steadily improved over his career.  His ERA has bounced around quite a bit, but he may be more successful facing batters at Citi Field versus the HR-happy fields like Yankee Stadium and Great American Ball Park.

By contrast, another target was Carlos Rodón, who just signed with the San Francisco Giants for $22M/year.  Rodon pitched with the Chicago White Sox for each of his 7 MLB seasons.  His WHIP is similar but worse than Gray’s (1.295), compiled at a field that was very unfriendly to pull-hitting righties.  

He had a banner year in 2021 in just about every statistical measurement, and added over 1 mph to his fastball.  However, he went down in September with shoulder soreness after some ineffective starts. Rodón pitched only 11 total games from 2019-20 as he came back from Tommy John surgery, and he missed significant time from 2017-18 as he recovered from left shoulder surgery.  I think that the Mets did the right thing by passing on this free agent – they appear to be doing their homework.

Late breaking news reveals that Chris Bassitt is joining the Mets via the trade route for two very good pitching prospects Adam Oller and J.T. Ginn.  Bassitt has been pretty healthy since recovering from Tommy John surgery with the exception of a stint on the IL last year after being struck in the head by a line drive.  His post-TJS WHIP has consistently been under 1.2, strike-outs per nine improved year-over-year to 9.1, and K/BB ratio is up over 3 during the same period.  Coming from Oakland, he is used to a pitcher-friendly park and will see more of the same at Citi Field.  He is very good against left handed batters, giving up a .218 batting average.  Once again the Mets appear to have done their homework on this acquisition and have landed a quality arm.