Reese Kaplan -- Just Say "No!" to a Conforto Reunion

A lot of words are being written, spoken and tweeted about the prospect of bringing back Michael Conforto to the New York Mets.  Part of it has to do with the current state of injury to Starling Marte whose centerfield duties will likely be temporarily handled by the much improved defensive abilities shown last year by Brandon Nimmo.  That change opens up a corner outfield position that requires offensive production (if not baserunning speed) to replace what will not be provided by Marte while his oblique-related injury heals. 

The other issue that comes up again and again by both fans and media is the fact that the Mets are letting a homegrown talent walk away.  This loss is highlighted by past free agent losses like Daniel Murphy, Jose Reyes and others who found new homes and demonstrated their productivity elsewhere.  Everyone seems to want to discover why is it that Mets would develop a talent like Conforto and then seemingly turn a cold shoulder to embracing him long term to enjoy what he’s capable of doing with the bat and in the field. 

I’ve often drawn the analogy of little-regarded former Met Kevin McReynolds when discussing the talents of Michael Conforto.  For his career, McReynolds spent the better part of five seasons with the Mets after arriving from the San Diego Padres as part of an eight-player deal that sent a number of Mets prospects to the west coast, including former top pick Shawn Abner and Stanley Jefferson, along with pitchers Kevin Armstrong and Kevin Brown.  None of these four amounted to much of anything and if the trade ended there then the Mets would be hailed for having stolen a guy who hit 26 HRs and drove in 96 runs for the Padres during the Mets magical ride to the championship in 1986.  Unfortunately the 5th player the Mets gave up was an erratic but capable infielder/outfielder who hit .275 with 12 HRs and 45 RBIs over part seasons in New York in 1984 and 1986.  That player was Kevin Mitchell who went on to win an MVP with the Giants in 1989 when he hit .291 with 47 HRs and 125 RBIs.  Yeah, McReynolds never quite measured up to that!

However, over his 12-year career Kevin McReynolds was a very productive hitter who earned 30.1 WAR (an average of 2.5 per season).  Thus far Michael Conforto in his seven years in the majors has earned 15.7 WAR (an average of 2.24 per year).  McReynolds was a solid defender in left field and Conforto has turned himself into a credible right fielder.  At his maximum McReynolds earned $3.66 million and from reports Conforto is looking to earn about seven times that amount.  Frankly he is not worth it.  If 1 WAR is worth approximately $8.75 million then Conforto with a bounceback season is worth $19.6 million per year.  With Mark Canha, Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo, J.D. Davis and a reenergized Dominic Smith already on the roster it would seem to be a poor allocation of Steve Cohen’s resources. 

My feeling is that the Mets would be much better served securing the services of more high quality pitching, particularly in the bullpen.  Adam Ottavino is an OK addition, but what happens if after 2022 Edwin Diaz chooses to test free agency?  Who closes for the Mets then — Drew Smith?   It might be much more prudent to put any extra dollars into a stellar quality relief pitcher to supplement the crew currently on the roster and to hedge your bets against a Diaz departure. Tony Watson still needs a contract and would be a more valuable addition to the Mets than would Michael Conforto (and a lot less money).