Reese Kaplan -- Crystal Ball Dusted Off for 2023 Season

It’s about that time of the year when all of us Mets fans and part-time media participants dust off our crystal balls and make a set of predictions prognosticating the performance of various players and the outcome for the team in general. 

Some folks are eternal optimists.  Others are the voice of doom.  While for most of my fandom I’ve been more of the latter, lately I find myself generally more positive in my assessments than I’d been in the past.  Maybe retirement under the South Asian sun agrees with me. 

Infield

The New York Mets infield in 2023 is pretty much a carbon copy of what they trotted out most of the time last year when they managed to win 101 games. 

Pete Alonso’s power was down a bit (by his lofty standards) but the RBIs were up.  His defense has improved to the point that while no Keith Hernandez comparisons are likely ever to happen, he’s not the liability most feared he would be.  As he plays himself into a Met-for-life contract extension, I would predict his HR total will increase slightly to about 45 and the RBI total will be similar to the 130 he logged last year.  

The surprising change will be in his batting average which started off in the .230s to .260s during his first four years in the majors.  Last year he was up to .271 and the RBIs skyrocketed.  My prediction this year is for another 10 point boost in batting average.

Jeff McNeil last season did something that only once before in the club’s history ever happened when he won the National League batting title.  How do you make an encore to that?  His power was notably down but if the tradeoff is that after an uncharacteristic .251 season he roared back with a .326.  

Going into 2023 his average will likely tail off a bit pressing to justify his new multiyear contract but his power will probably bring him into the mid double digit range.  I’d go with .303 and 15 HRs which might keep him close to the 5.7 WAR he generated last year. 

After a fairly rough start to his Mets career, Francisco Lindor in 2022 showed what he was capable of doing both in the field and at the plate.  His batting average jumped 40 points over his rookie Mets season bringing him closer to lifetime expectations.  The power was commendable with 26 dingers, though still far short of his 38 high water mark in Cleveland.  His hallmark achievement was in RBIs where he hit triple digits for the first time.  Let’s also not forget his 16 stolen bases.  

For the upcoming season as he is now far more comfortable in New York (and with fences being moved in) I foresee the 30 HR range again, a tick higher in the batting average but RBIs more or less where they were as he is dependent on the actions of the placeholders which is something he cannot control. 

The toughest prediction to make is at third base as we saw both the bad and the good from Eduardo Escobar in 2022.  When the dust settled, he still managed to achieve decent value for his moderate salary, though 20 HRs and 69 RBIs falls well below what was expected (as was his .240 batting average).  He is what he is, a streaky hitter, and this year he has rookie Brett Baty likely on his heels while honing his skill further in Syracuse.  If healthy, I think there will be a resurgence in power and run production, but not much in terms of batting average.  

That output will pave the way for an a July transition to Baty and third base and Escobar wearing another team’s uniform. 

Outfield

Another carbon copy of the 2022 squad, expect to see a lot more of the same in 2023. 

Mark Canha was a little bit of a head scratcher when he was signed as he was not known as a great fielder, struggled sometimes with batting average but was a pretty regular bit for 16-20 HRs and working long counts.  His professionalism was admired during his first trial with the Mets, though the run production fell below expectations.  As a career .248 hitter he didn’t strike many as a must-start type of player, but his average came up into the .260s.  

Many feel he might be a good bet to use in a platoon-like role out in left field, but the alternatives of Tommy Pham and Darin Ruf are also right handed, so you take what you can get.  I’d like to see a repeat in the batting average department and perhaps a tad more power as the shortened right field fence may alter how some pitchers behave when in Citifield.  Right now, though, I’m predicting a more-or-less carbon copy season for Canha.

Brandon Nimmo quickly changed himself from a bit of a punchline as a draft pick into a must-have during this offseason.  He got a well deserved long term deal and will continue to plague opposing pitchers with his ability to work extremely long counts and rack up a terrific OBP.  However, perhaps even more impressive is his work defensively where he went from a fringe corner outfielder into an in demand center fielder as good as anyone in the league. 

What helped him in 2022 most was health where he was able to make an uncharacteristic 580 ABs.  For 2023, however, I foresee health issues occurring once again and his 5.1 WAR season will not be repeated. Given the Mets' rather thin outfield replacement options, that's gotta hurt.

Starling Marte is recovering after some abdominal issues last season cut his (and the team's) 2022 postseason aspirations a bit short. However, while he was there he was indeed everything the team expected when they signed him as a free agent to replace Michael Conforto. Even with just 466 ABs he still hit .292 with 16 HRs, 18 SBs and played a terrific right field. 

 Assuming he is healthy and going into his age 34 season, I would expect an uptick in the power while holding steady with batting average and speed. The speed will eventually diminish with age but 34 is not considered old by today's baseball standards.

Catching

Perhaps tough to predict, there's nowhere for the Mets catching game to go but up after a disastrous couple of seasons. After paying to dismiss James McCann in trade (though to be fair he had his share of injury issues while in orange and blue), the team turns to the excellent defense of Tomas Nido to accompany newcomer Omar Narvaez to form a lefty/righty platoon combo which should ensure that the older Narvaez doesn't get overworked behind the plate. 

 The chunky Narvaez is a career .258 hitter who has clubbed as many as 22 HRs in a season. However, given his girth and now being over 30, he's really just filler in place of McCann until the defensive side of rookie Francisco Alvarez' game catches up with his bat. Right now expect Alvarez to play every day in Syracuse while this platoon should combine for about a .250/15 HR level of performance while handling some excellent pitchers. Alvarez may get the nod a bit sooner if needed at DH even if his defensive game isn't quite up to snuff given the Ruf/Pham right handed options otherwise to complement Daniel Vogelbach.

Starting Pitching

On paper the Mets have pretty exciting quintet of starting pitchers, including two multiple Cy Young winners in Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander. Given the age of both, injury risk and fatigue are greater concerns than native ability. It explains the decision to keep David Peterson and Tylor Megill starting regularly in AAA in the event they are needed for an extended period of time.

Kodai Senga is the one where there is likely the most apprehension. He was a terrific pitcher in Japan, but pitching on a shortened leash for roughly a six-man rotation and 5 innings pitched as a starter. Obviously the feel for the baseball and the more traditional five-man rotation and 6 inning expectation will likely be something of a tough adjustment. 

 I would expect him to start out at a substandard level, but by the All Star break he would have gotten into the swing of things and a strong finish (if healthy) would probably not make him a Rookie of the Year candidate, but instead one for whom a sophomore season holds higher expectations than he does as a freshman.

Jose Quintana was a nice pickup by the front office. Although he's bounced around a bit on six teams during his career, the big lefty is a welcome sight after the Mets often were without one on a regular basis. At age 34 he should have a few good seasons in him and should slot in nicely in the 4th starting pitcher position. I'd set expectations in the 12 win range with an ERA about 3.35.

Carlos Carrasco was likely trade bait until the mass departure of 2022 starting pitchers. Consequently it made sense to pick up his 2023 option and hope you get something as a 5th starter in the range of 12 wins and an ERA under 3.75. If healthy, that's a performance level that's a reasonable expectation but if Megill and Peterson are lighting up AAA then it's possible someone will want the veteran Carrasco in July for a half-year modestly priced pitching options.

Relief Pitching

If healthy, the right side of the Mets bullpen with Edwin Diaz, Adam Ottavino, David Robertson and Drew Smith should be spectacular. The sole lefty Brooks Raley is coming off a terrific 2022 but it is the only one he's had in his career. Consequently folks were hoping the Mets would add Zack Britton or another available lefty option, but thus far in-house recovering John Curtiss appears to be the only other southpaw who could possibly come north. That's a little scary.

Bench and DH

While we've mentioned the outfield options (weak) and catching alternatives, we haven't really looked at supersub Luis Guillorme nor DH Daniel Vogelbach. If the bench includes just Guillorme, Ruf, Pham and Nido, that's not exactly going to put fear into the hearts of opposing pitchers.

Even Daniel Vogelbach who is well liked and works long counts started off 2022 well but finished rather meekly. It seems as if the front office did not do much in the DH realm, perhaps due to spending lavishly elsewhere or perhaps to give some of the hotter rookies a chance to get ABs at DH. Right now it seems that the poor grade here is on Billy Eppler and his team more so than on the players traveling up from Port St. Lucie.

Standings

Given the huge spate of injuries the Mets faced in 2022, everything was still coming together until Starling Marte was down and out. It showed how weak the Mets were in the outfield without him. You could equally argue that the DH and the catchers were similarly poorer than they could have been or that Eduardo Escobar's extended slump helped doom the team.

Others would volunteer it was the many injuries that kept Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and other pitchers from making their assigned starts that killed the team's chances.

Now it would seem it was a combination of all of the above, but the Marte unavailability in the latter part of the season really was the final nail in the NL East coffin. Not much as been done to address this issue and everyone is a year older.

On the starting pitching front the staff is talented but above 30 across the board. They lost Jacob deGrom, Chris Bassitt, Taijuan Walker and Trevor Williams. The replacements look good but until the games start we can't speculate if they will be better, worse or more of the same.

Nothing at all has been done to improve the DH position.

Right now with as much optimism as folks felt with the arrivals of Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana, it would seem that aspiring to match 101 wins is likely the best they could do. The offense is suspect in several places and unless they rush up hot rookies and give them a real role, it doesn't appear that it will improve.  I stand with 100 wins.