Reese Kaplan -- Getting Better But Not Yet Good Enough

So the Mets have moved into a winning record with a .600 percentage as of Sunday morning.  If the club continued to play at this level of competency it would result in a final season record of 97 wins which is 4 below their 101 win total of 2022 and consistent with the slight step down I predicted in my preseason forecast.

Yesterday the Mets made some personnel moves which were geared towards maintaining the status quo.  Everyone who watched saw Stephen Nogosek get hit by a batted ball which ended up leaving him bruised and in need of some time to recuperate.  

Then the surprising acquisition of Dennis Santana started off alright with a few good appearances but then he quickly looked overmatched.  

On the former, Nogosek was placed on the IL.  On the latter, Santana has been DFA'd.  If he clears then he'll head to Syracuse.  If not, well, we hardly knew ye.

To replace them on the roster the Mets promoted starting pitcher Jose Butto.  Part of the reasoning was the need for multiple starters with games clustered together on the west coast trip.  Butto has had a decent minor league career but not in the top tier of productivity. During his six years as part of the Mets minor league climb to the majors he has a 3.78 ERA.  His 9 Ks per 9 IP is commendable as is his decent control allowing 2.6 walks over the same span.  

His record overall is below .500 though the control and ERA are generally more indicative of what a potential starter can do as wins and losses depend on his team's ability to score runs.  Look at Jacob deGrom as a good example of that phenomenon.  

Scouts have said that Butto is a workhorse who can get people out but doesn't always succeed in doing so.  The 6'1" Venezuelan is rather skinny and doesn't generate a lot of velocity.  His hits per inning pitched falls well below 1 and with good control you'd expect his end results would be even better.  

He is regarded within the top 25 of Mets prospects which is more about perhaps the thinness of the pool than about the quality Butto delivers.  Last season he had a brief trial in the majors which was eye popping but not in a good way.

Accompanying him to replace Santana is Jimmy Yacabonis, a throwback to Buck Showalter's Baltimore Orioles days.  With the exception of a 2018 minor league trial exclusively as a starting pitcher, he's been a reliever since the very beginning and after that season's 4.26 ERA result.  The big righthander is now 31 years of age and still hasn't really succeeded in clinching a pivital role in a major league bullpen.  

He did turn in commendable work for the Mariners in the 2021 minors and again in 2022 split between the Marlins and Rays.  It's understandable that they would take a chance on him.

In the early going for Syracuse he has done well.  In his four games in AAA he has a perfect 0.00 ERA with no walks and better than a strikeout per inning pitched.  With Santana coming off the 40-man roster it opened a slot for him to get added to it.  No one expects a whole lot given his major league mediocre performance record, but someone needs to hold down the fort in the pen until Nogosek or Tommy Hunter are ready to take the mound again.  

The bigger questions for the Mets seem to be whether or not Francisco Alvarez really is overmatched and not ready for the majors, as well as the early season struggles of third baseman Eduardo Escobar.  With Brett Baty on fire that second positional debate is probably more front and center than catcher.  For now the Mets don't really have other options to cover for Omar Narvaez until he's ready to return.  

Add in the similar hot start for nowhere-to-play Ronny Mauricio and the man I've come to call Claude Rains, the Mets' invisible man, Mark Vientos.  It's good that some of the hitters playing upstate are handling their bats the way folks hoped the crew at home in Citifield would do.  Eventually some of these guys will see Queens while wearing a uniform instead of buying a ticket at the gate.  

Going forwards, however, between the starting pitching uneven performances, the injuries and the hitting slumps it looks like a .600 winning percentage may be what to look for from the big club.  That level won't be enough to win a division but might open up a playoff slot.