Reese Kaplan -- Losing Patience With Prospect Francisco Alvarez?

So far the early returns in the major leagues in 2022 and again in 2023 demonstrate that the minors-crushing Francisco Alvarez is not quite ready for prime time.  At first everyone worried about his defensive game but his hitting has also been deficient.  As a result his injury-opportunity to play when Omar Narvaez went down is likely turning into a backup role with Tomas Nido getting the lion's share of starting assignments.  

Recently Buck Showalter indicated that DH opportunities could arise for Alvarez to keep his bat in the game if not his glove and arm.  Regular play against the highest level of pitching will help him adjust to sharper control, move movement on the thrown balls and perhaps help his confidence overall if he can be productive with the bat.  Right now he's likely suffering on the offensive side due to the defensive limitations that have been under the microscope.  

One of the dark and dirty ideas that has come up recently due to fans' impatience with young players becoming immediate superstars is that Kevin Parada could become the catcher of the future and Francisco Alvarez could become red letter trade bait.  

Now catchers who regularly demonstrate 30+ home run power this side of Mike Piazza are few and far between, so it's not a small thing to consider making Alvarez the centerpiece of any trade.  Still, people feel that Parada is a legitimate catching prospect who also can handle the bat, more J.T. Realmuto than Johnny Bench.  Still, with Narvaez available for another year and Nido not necessarily going anywhere the Mets can theoretically afford to wait for Parada to ascend to the majors.

So entertain this silly notion for a minute...what is Francisco Alvarez worth in return if he was placed into the not untouchable category of hot prospects?  Right now everyone is well aware of the myriad of health problems the club is facing but these issues are likely short term in nature.  Rather than focus on what could help in 2023, instead look ahead to 2024 and beyond.  

With that perspective, consider the ages of the starting pitchers...Max Scherzer is approaching 40 and Justin Verlander has already eclipsed that plateau.  Carlos Carrasco is on the tail end of his contract and likely won't be retained.  Jose Quintana needs to recover from surgery and no one knows how effective he will be.  So starting next year you have the twin elder statesmen in the rotation, Kodai Senga, maybe Jose Quintana and the sound of crickets.  Yes, it's possible in-house options like David Peterson and/or Tylor Megill could be for real but neither has been shut-down consistent for a full season.  If you're looking for another solid pitcher it might take a prime time Alvarez in trade to get it done.

Then look around the infield.  Pete Alonso will eventually get his very lucrative deal but then we all thought Jacob deGrom would be a Met for life and were proven wrong.  Jeff McNeil and Francisco Lindor are here long term but Eduardo Escobar is on the end of his deal and the door could open to Brett Baty to play third base regularly.  It doesn't seem like an infield trade would warrant giving up Alvarez.

Now in the outfield it gets a little sketchy.  People are divided about Mark Canha who seems like a right handed version of centerfielder Brandon Nimmo.  He works counts very well and has shown 15-20 HR power but he's approaching the latter stage of his career and may not be invited back to be a starter after the 2023 season ends.  Starling Marte will still be around but he's also hitting the mid-30s.  Consequently finding a solid hitting left fielder to replace Canha could bring that hypothetical Alvarez inclusion in a deal back to the table.

The bullpen should be fine with the return of Edwin Diaz to join others already here.  It doesn't seem like you'd give up Alvarez for a 7th inning setup guy, but hey we saw what Billy Eppler thought was fair value when he traded for the not immortal Darin Ruf.  

The one area that draws more open hostility from Mets fans than any other is DH.  Love him or hate him, the numbers do demonstrate that as a platoon player Daniel Vogelbach is productive.  He's also very inexpensive.  It's the right handed side of this platoon that has been lacking.  While I might personally advocate giving Mark Vientos a shot at the job, the club seems to feel DH is not a young man's game.  So here again an Alvarez trade would make sense but not for a platoon partner.  You'd want someone solid enough and healthy enough to play 150+ games in that role.

I'm not advocating giving up on Alvarez.  However, the whispers have started that perhaps he's not all that after all and fans are growing impatient.