Remember 1969: Pete vs. Vlad

 

Remember's Ramblings – Volume 1, Article 11

December 24, 2024

 

Pete vs. Vlad:  some interesting fodder for thought

News is a little slow these days other than a few miscellaneous first baseman that have been signed from the free agent list or traded from one team to another. 

Of late, Christian Walker, Paul Goldschmidt, Nathaniel Lowe, Josh Naylor and Carlos Santana have each found a new team.   

That brings us to one first baseman still on the free agent list and one that will be there in another year.  With each of the aforementioned signings or trades, another team has been eliminated as a possible team for Pete Alonso to sign with.  The contending team left with the biggest hole at first base is the New York Mets.   

It is certainly possible that Pete and the Mets will come around to discovering that they need each other and get it done.    It is hard at this point to see that he will command anything close to the reported 7 year $158M offer that he turned down a year or so ago.   A new contract ceiling looks like perhaps 5 years and $125M. 

There has been recent media and commenter rumblings on a possible projection of David Stearns wanting to do a stop-gap solution for 2025 at first base before going all-in for next year’s top gem – Vladimir Guerrero Jr.    

If anyone had the answer to the question of “What will Vlad command (and get) next year as a free agent?”, they could be rather rich.   Unfortunately, that answer is unknown, so some discussion and a wild guess are now in order.

First, the simple fact is that Vladimir Guerrero is a better player than Pete Alonso.   Second, Guerrero is more than four years younger than Alonso (or to level things, will be more than three years younger at the time of his free agency than Pete is now).  

Guerrero also does not have Scott Boras as an agent.   Who knows what difference that makes in either negotiating strategies or signing success.   

With Soto setting the bar with a $50M+ average salary, it is not unreasonable to assume that Vlad will command at least $40M per over a long term.   Let’s arbitrarily set his floor to be 12 years and $500M, although it is unclear if there are any teams that will have the need or the resources for that type of deal.           

So, a few questions:

-        Should the Mets tie up $140M per year on just 4 players?   (Lindor, Soto, Nimmo, Vlad)

-        Will Alonso’s and Guerrero’s stats for the next 5 years (and beyond) be that much different to justify spending $375M more, or $40+M per year for another 7 years after Guerrero is 32 years old?

-        If people are concerned with reduced production after age 30 for Alonso, can a $40M per year contract for Guerrero to take him to 39 be validated?

-        Are Guerrero’s previous comments about never wanting to play for the Yankees to be taken seriously?  If so, how much does that reduce his contract?

-        Is this really even an either/or question?  

-        Can Vientos fill the first base void long term?   And if so, who plays third and who is the DH? 

         

Remember’s Ramblings:    

My vote is to sign Pete for the next 5 years.   Do not sign Bregman now.  If another third baseman is wanted, trade for Arenado.   Vientos and Arenado share third and DH with Arenado being the tutor.   At the end of 2025, Arenado’s contract will be paid down sufficiently to trade him again and sign Vlad if that is the right thing to do.   Pete then becomes the full time DH for the next 4 years. 

 Personally, I’d love to have Guerrero as a Met for the next 5 years, but I can’t see both Soto and Guerrero aging well in the field through their 30’s and only one of them can be the DH at a time.    

  

Remember’s Reminiscing:   December 24 Birthdays

 

Frank Taveras, Matt Ginter, and Miguel Castro are all celebrating birthdays today!   Happy Birthday to all of them.

 

Lastly, Rickey Henderson would have celebrated his 66^th birthday tomorrow.    His passing hit me hard this past weekend.  Rickey and I were born the same year – he was just a bit younger than I.    Way too young to leave this world.   From a baseball perspective, I used to love to watch Henderson play – he played the game the way I love to see it played.   While everyone has opinions and people have tried to normalize stats and careers across generations with calculations like WAR, Rickey in my mind was in the top ten (if not top five) list of all-time best baseball players.   What a shame that we have lost 3 of the great ones (and several others) in 2024 alone.   RIP Rickey.