Paul Articulates – Excellence at what price?

This off-season has Mets fans filled with anxious anticipation as they await news on new free agent signings that will improve a team that reached the NLCS last year.  With so much money coming off the books from previously traded stars, The Mets have some awesome flexibility to acquire some players that can bring them to the next level.

We are well aware of the Juan Soto sweepstakes, which most accounts would give the Mets a good chance of winning.  We are also aware of the strong need to bolster the starting rotation, and with several excellent arms in the market, time will tell who chooses to wear the Orange and Blue.

Unfortunately for the Mets’ owner and his accountants, the price of free agent pitching seems to be reaching new heights.  Of course it was the Dodgers, always among the top salary distributers in the league, who set the bar higher this year by signing Blake Snell to a five year, $182M contract.  

Snell has certainly had some outstanding years, winning the Cy Young award once in each league.  However, he also has had some less than outstanding years and a history of injury which makes the value of this year’s contract a large financial risk for the Dodgers.  But by taking that risk, the Dodgers also boxed in most other teams that have less financial strength to afford some of the remaining free agent pitchers.

We figured that something like this would happen to set a high bar.  What we did not figure were some of the deals lower down in the performance spectrum that have also escalated the price of pitching.  What do I mean?  

On November 27th, the Angels signed 33 year old left-hander Yusei Kikuchi to a three year, $63M contract.  Don’t change the batteries in your calculators, that really is a $21M AAV for a pitcher that has a lifetime 4.57 ERA and has only registered one season under 3.0 – last year with the Blue Jays and Astros.  

If a starter with six years in MLB with a sub-.500 record and a sub-100 ERA+ is worth $21M/year, what does it cost to sign someone like Corbin Burnes with a 60-36 record and career ERA of 3.19? Burnes has averaged 189+ innings pitched over the last four years which makes him a workhorse with a Cy Young pedigree.  

It seems like the “outrageous” $40M+ salaries paid to Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander by the Mets a few years ago could be challenged with these salary escalations.

The Snell offer was interesting because the Dodgers structured their deal with large bonuses and significant deferrals, so the book value is only $26M AAV.  This is potentially a creative way to get away from the “outrageous” salary numbers, but it still hits the owner’s pocketbook just as hard.

I know that David Stearns is capable of making some pretty creative deals, and there is probably no one as savvy about finances as owner Steve Cohen.  But it is still mind-boggling to see where the market is headed this year.  

One would expect that the Mets are trying to score more than one starting pitcher, and with the escalation this is going to be very difficult to maneuver under the luxury tax thresholds.

We will all wait impatiently for word on the current bidding wars and hope for a favorable conclusion.