The Mets have hugely under-earned the Yankees each year.
Steve Cohen know that.
David Stearns knows that.
Even in 2024, the Yankees drew a whopping 1 million more regular season fans to their tilts in the regular season than the Mets (3.3 million vs. 2.3 million), the equivalent of 25 additional Yankees sell outs, despite both teams making the 2024 playoffs.
The Mets greatly underperformed…at the ticket box.
Here are 3 interesting info links on team revenues:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/estimating-postseason-revenue-for-players-and-teams/
https://www.sportspro.com/news/mlb-revenue-2024-rob-manfred-yankees-dodgers-world-series/
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/which-mlb-teams-take-home-the-most-revenue/
In 2023, it tells me the Yankees grossed the most revenue at $679 million.
The Mets were only 11th, at $393 million in revenues, or only about 60% of the Yankees’ haul.
The Mets, in other words, appear to have grossed a whopping $286 million less in just 2023 than did the Yanks.
Heck, even the Mariners’ gross revenues exceeded that of the Mets.
Steve Cohen knows that.
David Stearns knows that.
Juan $oto may level the Mets’ and Yanks’ revenues.
Perhaps entirely erase that $286 million annual revenues deficit.
That’s a ton of extra Mets cabbage, or extra moola boola, so to speak.
So…do you still think the Mets paid too much for Juan $oto?
Or is he ... I dunno ... a bargain?
I always like to remind readers of what he would be getting paid if his contract was broken out yearly by his potential value for that year, rather than straight line. First 5 years are total prime years, 2nd 5 years, he hopefully is only in modest decline and still great, and 3rd 5 years, he is "baseball old" and hopefully still reasonably dangerous.
I would estimate the real annual value as follows:
1) First 5 years: $80 million per year = $400 million
2) Second 5 years: $50 million per year = $250 million
3) Last 5 years: $23 million per year = $115 million.
23-9, Not 12-6
The re-upped Sean Manaea in point of fact won 12 and lost 6 in 2024.
But in his 32 starts, the Mets were 23-9.
I think the latter is far more significant than the former, don’t you?
A lot better than if he went 13-7, but they were 17-15 in his 32 starts.
What do I hope for in 2025? Oh, I dunno….23-9 would be nice.
METS' POSITION PLAYER ARM STRENGTH
The savvy stat-casters at Baseball Savant track lots of dandy data stuff, including arm strength, by position and by team (excluding catchers, who they rank based on "pop time").
Naturally, I looked at the Mets' dudes Mets Position Players Arm Strength.
Strongest arm on average? Starling Marte at 91 MPH.
But Harry Bader had the strongest throw (speed-wise) at 98.3.
Weakest starting Mets position player arm? Pete Alonso, whose strongest throw was 72.9, putting him well down among MLB first basemen in that regard. (Sorry, Pete, but the owners know this at contract time). Vlad Guerrero, by comparison, hit 90.9 for his max throw at first base, with an average of 88.5. Who knew?
Lindor maxed out at 92.3, while neither Vientos nor Baty owned rifles - Mark Vientos topped out at 88.7 and Baty at 85.9.
Still, not a Shawon Dunston or Roberto Clemente in the Mets bunch. Those two had licensed howitzers.
Finally, Colton Cowser of the Orioles clocked in with the fastest position player throw of 2024, at 104.3 MPH: he was one of 17 players who were clocked above 100.0 MPH. The Mets' best, Harry Bader at 98.3, was 38th fastest among MLB position players.
I have to speed off right now - you all have a day with real Pop Time.
CATCHERS?
Before you chastise Francisco Alvarez for his seemingly very bad caught stealing performance, just 14 of 80 last year (17.5%), please realize that major leaguers on the whole in 2024 were successful in 79.2% of their steal attempts (3,617 successes and just 951 times caught stealing). So caught stealing % was just 20.8% in MLB. Why?
Guys are faster and pitchers are poorer at holding runners than in the good old days.
In fact, Alvarez is ranked 31st in arm velocity by Statcast, at 84.2 MPH (84.8 MPH in 2023). Two things, though, about that 31st ranking.
Add one more MPH on that (to 85.2) and he'd be ranked 16th. And the list is comprised of 83 catchers, so he is in the top 40%. Lastly, only 3 of the 83 catchers are above 86.9 MPH, just as a point of perspective.
Lastly, on a look-back to 2019, former Met Nido was at 80.1, Buffalo Ramos was 81.6, and Plawecki was limp-noodled at 77.1. James McCann 81.1, and the repaired Travis d'Arnaud topped them at 83.4, still almost one MPH short of Francisco.
So quit yer yappin'.
TIM HILL?
Apparently there is interest in this LHRP.
ELIAN PENA
I long wished the Mets would put “all their chips” on a top one or top two international signing, like Juan Soto and Vlad Jr were several years ago, money so well spent. Well, the new, smart Mets finally did so. Elian was either top one or top 2, excluding Sasaki. BRAVO!!
Why go all in? You win big with big stars.
17 year old SS/3B who is expected to be a GREAT hitter.
11 comments:
Building for the future is great indeed. Unfortunately it appears helping in the present is not as big a part of the front office agenda. Wake me when they actually address the holes in the roster.
Reese, I am guessing most holes are filled by Feb 1. I think rushing it could add $10 million or more to the team salary and another $10-$15 million in tax. Just the delay on Pete - something is cooking. If this was the Wilpon era, we'd have justifiable fear that the spending was essentially over. They never paid a penny in lux tax. Frugal real estate moguls were they.
SNY wrote this on Pete: “The Mets and Pete Alonso are still nowhere, and time is getting short. With plenty of room left in the budget and a need to improve the roster, the team will not wait forever for resolution on their longtime first baseman. David Stearns and his group are still looking to sign at least one reliever, quite possibly from the top of the market, and a hitter.
According to league sources, Stearns and the Mets are holding the line on both the length and dollars of their short-term offer, which includes an opt-out after the first year. The exact dollar figure is not known. Cohen is fully supportive of Stearns’ approach, according to sources with direct knowledge of his thinking.
The Mets have consistently -- and, I believe, sincerely -- said that they like Alonso as a person, a player and a Met. They want him to return next season, and hope for a quick resolution.
But the baseball operations department has, of course, done significant work on other plans. We have previously reported that the Mets’ most likely alternative to Alonso is to emphasize youth and versatility on the infield in 2025. But in that case, they would add to the offense elsewhere.
Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, Luisangel Acuña, Ronny Mauricio and others would see time at multiple infield positions, including the corners. Of that group, the Mets see Vientos as the most likely fit for significant time at first base, but do not feel the need to commit to one player at any position.
Among the many options for the Mets to potentially replace Alonso in the lineup (Winker is very possible, Anthony Santander seems less likely, etc. etc.), Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looms as the most intriguing, if far from the most likely.”
SO…THE METS FRONT OFFICE IS PATIENT, NOT PANICKED
Caught stealing is only 20% partly because of the bigger bases and limited throws over to first by the pitcher, Once the pitcher uses them up, the runners get huge jumps. All this was done intentionally by MLB to make the game more exciting to younger fans. Me, I hate it.
With regard to the stolen bases, I think both Tom and Jon have good points. I am not sure the runners overall are any faster, but I am fairly sure that the pitchers today are not as good at holding runners on. Certainly the bigger bases and the limited throws to first are the biggest drivers in the greater success rate for runners. You would think that pitchers throwing faster would help the catcher as the ball gets to the plate faster, but my guess is that is negligible.
The larger bases is the one big rule change implemented a couple years ago that I actually like. I don't like the limit on the number of throws to first.
I think pitchers see that roughly only 20% will be caught, so they concentrate instead on trying to fan every batter. In the old days, pitchers really did have cat-and-mouse games trying to hold guys on, so they could induce double play grounders, which I am sure are way down from where they were 50 years ago. Part of the reason starters don't go as deep in games.
Jim Rice in 1984 and 1985 grounded into an astonishing 71 double plays.
I’m guessing that the Mets’ offer to Pete is around 3/$80m, pretty sure no one is going to beat that. It wouldn’t surprise me if they also offered an alternative of something like 1/$35m, which would set the record for 1B AAV, hoping he takes it. There will be better long-term options at 1B next offseason and it would also give them another year to evaluate Ryan Clifford and to see if/how Vientos improves at 3B.
Adam, 3 yrs, $80 with mutual opt out options after 1 or 2 seasons sounds like a plan. Pete might be humiliated at 3/$80MM, but we should all have such problems .
I agree on your points. Also, Syndergaard had a pretty good speed on his pitches. But it was said that he had a slow delivery time to throw the pitch. Slow delivery, poor holding skills, bigger bases, limited throws to first. Huge advantage to the runners.
Steve, exactly. That is why any drop in velocity for Noah was very damaging. Velocity drops, more runners get on base, and they start stealing like bandits.
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