Paul Articulates – Stuff to talk about

The Mets beat the Nationals yesterday in the Spring Breakout game.  Good stuff!  It was great to see our prospects performing well in such a highly visible game.  And speaking of stuff, what about Jonah Tong?  

He threw some impressive stuff for the first two innings of that game, living up to the reputation as a guy to watch for.  Ryan Clifford, Jett Williams, and Nick Morabito showed why they are on the prospect tree as well.  I was also pleasantly surprised to see what Ryan Lambert could do.

But let’s stick with the theme of “stuff”.  The Mets seem to already be reaping some rewards from their investment in the pitching lab.  In the past, pitchers would make it to the team through draft or trade that already had “good stuff” and worked to refine their ability to use it to get batters out.  

Now, it seems like the guidance from the development staff, informed by the technology in the pitching lab, is improving every aspect of the Mets’ pitchers.  Their velocity is up, their spin rate is improved, and most importantly they are doing it with less stress on their arms.

Want evidence?  So far this spring, the Mets pitching staff leads all of baseball with a 3.40 ERA.  They are second in MLB with a 1.30 WHIP, and first in average against at .235.  One can dismiss early season stats because the competition is not yet playing their starting lineups, but that is true of all clubs.  This comparison is apples to apples, and the big apple has the best pitching statistics.

Mack has been sharing some very impressive statistical analysis by TJStats and PitchProfiler.  The numbers don’t lie.   The statistics are out there for everyone, but the Mets seem to be doing an outstanding job of utilizing the data to improve performance.  Of course the truth test will be a 162 game season.

The eye test seems to correlate.  Those who know the game and have watched the Mets pitchers are impressed with their stuff.  Stuff translates when the lineups get tougher – it is still harder to hit even when the hitters’ experience is deeper.  Balls break further, they get on you faster, and if the catcher calls a good game, you can’t sit on a particular pitch to get a good swing on it.

This is very promising news for the Mets, because in today’s game, there are always many injuries that reduce the ideal paper lineup to a patched-up version for each day’s game.  If the Mets improve their pitching talent at all levels using their technology and personnel investments, then their depth of pitching is that much better.  The replacements are better, reducing the margin for error that makes a difference in winning.

This is not a guarantee that the 2025 Mets staff is going to be better than every other team, but a sign of hope that pound-for-pound, dollar-for-dollar, this team will extract more performance over the long term than their competition.  As billionaire Steve Cohen has stated, buying the top players (pitchers) is unsustainable, but developing talent depth is.  I think there are some very positive signs that the talent development is on the desired trajectory.

I think that this “stuff” is particularly relevant for the Mets this year.  They play in a division (NL East) that is full of talented lineups.  The only way to counter that is to pitch well and keep the ball away from the barrel of the bat.  Good stuff can do that.  Let’s hope I am right.