ANGRY MIKE
*** SURGEON GENERAL’S WARNING ***
This article is not intended to prove Nolan McLean is the next Zach Wheeler based on career statistics, physical attributes, or future projections. McLean is a very talented pitcher, who might become as successful as Wheeler, but we will leave that up to the “Baseball Gods”. We are simply presenting similarities between the two pitchers, by comparing their physical attributes, pitching arsenal, pitching mechanics, and their development through the minor leagues.
The insights being presented are opinion-based, subjective, and should not be misconstrued, misrepresented, or misinterpreted, as statements derived from scientific-based facts.
Please do not operate heavy equipment while reading this article.
NOLAN MCLEAN <-> PLAYER COMP: ZACH WHEELER
McLean has commonly found physical attributes that resemble most frontline starters, except he is considerably stronger and much more athletic because of his football background. His pitching mechanics, arsenal of pitches, and the movement on his pitches, are the main reasons why it wasn’t easy finding a readily identifiable “player comp” for him.
<-> McLean’s delivery is very unique for a SP -> low-arm-slot sidearm 27 degree arm angle, 5’1 release height, extended 3.64 feet toward third base, for east-to-west motion.
<-> McLean’s arsenal is even more unique than his mechanics -> delivery generates elite spin rates & elite movement on his off-speed pitches, & effortless plus velocity.
-> Fundamental similarities between McLean & Wheeler:
-> Prototypical pitcher’s build and extremely athletic
-> Excellent fielders, who also hold runners on very well
-> Both profile as #1 SP
-> Low-arm-slot sidearm
-> McLean 27 degree arm angle || Wheeler 35 degree arm angle
-> Effortless elite fastball velocity
-> Identical arsenal of pitches
-> Mechanics emphasize efficiency, repeatable delivery, and plus command
-> Both are excellent attacking hitters with plus stuff in the strike zone
N. MCLEAN -> 1st Full Season: Hi-A & Double-A
| 109.2 IP | 116 K | 96 H | 42 BB | 48 ER | 3.78 ERA | 1.26 WHIP | .238 BAA
25% K-Rate | 9% BB-Rate -> 462 Batters Faced
Z. WHEELER -> 1st Full Season: HI-A & Double-A:
| 115.2 IP | 129 K | 100 H | 52 BB | 45 ER | 3.52 ERA | 1.32 WHIP | .231 BAA
26% K-Rate | 11% BB-Rate -> 495 Batters Faced
-> Numbers are remarkably similar, McLean was drafted out of college, so it made sense he pitched at higher levels, since Wheeler was drafted out of High School
-> But keep in mind McLean only pitched a total of 57 IP during his entire collegiate career, so it’s not like he had hundreds of more innings under his belt.
-> That is what makes his production on the mound during his professional debut very impressive.
N. MCLEAN -> 2nd Full Season: AA | AAA | MLB
| 113.2 IP | 127 K | 78 H | 50 BB | 31 ER | 2.45 ERA | 1.13 WHIP | .192 BAA
27% K-Rate | 11% BB-Rate -> 467 Batters Faced
Z. WHEELER -> 2nd Full Season: AA & AAA
| 149.0 IP | 148 K | 115 H | 59 BB | 54 ER | 3.26 ERA | 1.17 WHIP | .221 BAA
25% K-Rate | 10% BB-Rate -> 608 Batters Faced
Ages, season stats, and minor league levels also remarkably similar again.
Few slight differences here and there, but nothing that stands out as one player outperforming the other.
Have to keep in mind, Wheeler was able to accrue at least one additional half-season after originally being drafted, which ironically totaled the same number of total IP McLean pitched during 3 seasons at college.
NOLAN MCLEAN -> MLB FIRST 8 STARTS:
| 48 IP | 57 K | 34 H | 16 BB | 11 ER | 2.08 ERA | 1.04 WHIP | .200 BAA
30% K-Rate | 9% BB-Rate -> 188 Batters Faced
Z. WHEELER -> MLB FIRST 8 STARTS:
| 45.2 IP | 36 K | 38 H | 23 BB | 18 ER | 3.58 ERA | 1.35 WHIP | .232 BAA
18% K-Rate | 12% BB-Rate -> 197 Batters Faced
-> Wheeler pitched well during his first taste of the big leagues, but McLean was flat out dominant during his initial stint
-> K-Rate was significantly higher (+12%), lower BAA (.200 < .232) & WHIP
-> Both pitchers flashed frontline SP potential, quickly showing the ability to compete at a high level.
Pitching Arsenal Similarities:
-> Average velocities for all 6 pitches are remarkably similar, with Wheeler having a slight edge on every pitch type except the sweeper.
-> At the moment Wheeler has the slight edge on top-end velocity for his 4-seamer, regularly dialing it up to the upper 90s, McLean has thrown just as hard in short bursts, and there is optimism he’ll be able to duplicate Wheeler’s top-end velocity as he continues to build arm strength.
-> McLean showed in his brief MLB stint he can dial it up to 96-98 MPH with relative ease, whether it is pitch #12 or pitch #87
-> McLean’s sweeper and changeup both exhibit similar pitch shapes and movement, McLean’s are considerably more violent, baffling even the most experienced MLB hitters
-> McLean’s Sweeper is already the stuff of legends, exhibiting whiffle-ball like movement, 85 MPH average velocity that is above average, & average spin rates that are in the Top 1% -> a future potential 80-scouting grade pitch
-> Wheeler’s higher velocity pitches -> Sinker & Changeup exhibit noticeably more vertical movement, than McLean’s, despite their similarities in horizontal and vertical movement, but McLean’s are definitely in the same ballpark when it comes to effectiveness regarding throwing both pitches for strikes or when used to induce
Regardless of how many similarities there are, each of these pitchers have their own unique style and approach, and only time will tell if McLean is capable of exhibiting the same level of dominance over the course of full season, year in and year out. If Wheeler’s potentially Hall of Fame career serves as an example, the ingredients are certainly there for McLean to have a very successful career. What’s even scarier is McLean has only been pitching full-time for a couple seasons, only scratching the surface of his future potential.
Anytime I write about McLean it is my duty as a fan and as a writer, to remind readers that McLean pitched a total of 57 innings during his entire collegiate career. Despite the limited of number innings, the Mets still started him off facing advanced professional hitters in High-A. He was then quickly promoted to the MLB before accumulating 200 career innings in the Minors. Many pitching prospects accumulate 400-500 innings in their career before being deemed ready to face MLB hitters.
The last time I was this excited about a pitching prospect, his name was:
Zach Wheeler.
Nolan McLean is not Zach Wheeler.
He’s something new and very different, could he be the MLB’s version of “NEO”, that’s the real “Player Comp” I’m looking forward to seeing him prove…
7 comments:
McLean will Win Hard With a Vengeance. Glad he’s our guy. His home run power makes me wish there was no DH.
I saw on TV long ago an early Zach Wheeler match up against Chris Sale. Wheeler looked human. Sale didn’t. Sale had mind blowing stuff.
Will Chris Sale make the HOF? Jake deGrom? Zack Wheeler?
@Angry Mike --- Excellent piece. Thank you. From your computer keyboard to God's ear.
Everyone, please look at the top three still photo captures of Mclean's pitching motion. A comment on his mechanics that I hope to make clarifying for everyone. In each of these notice the excellent kinematic sequencing. In the top one (adjacent to Weaver) note the seam in his shirt is stretched and curled, meaning that his pelvis is nearly fully rotated while his upper trunk/shoulders are lagging behind significantly. This is what is called the X factor and it is a significant enhancer of energy transfer, even more so when it happens on the 'forward' or unloading phase, rather than on the loading phase. In the second picture which is by far the most revealing notice all of the following: again, the seam on the shirt, the level hips., the fully planted left foot , the unweighting of the trail leg (together displaying a powerful initial horizontal pressure shift -- not weight shift, as his weight is still roughly balanced between his feet). Pressure on the lead foot, which you see is also torquing into the ground is what makes hip rotation possible; and notice his hip rotation is virtually complete or slowing down as his hips are facing the target. And at the same time his shoulders are facing almost pependicular to his hips: extraordinary lag and X factor, and his throwing arm is still trailing. Compare with Tong, which i had discussed in a previous post in which his hips and shoulders are both facing the plate at the same time and the seam curl is in the upper half of the shirt as a result of an unhealthy left lateral side bend of his spine that is the way in which he creates his over the top delivery. McCleans motion (especially in the legs) is reminiscent of Seaver and Ryan and Clemons. The sequence as whole is what I would use as a model for any pitcher because it is the kind that creates effortless speed.
Not only that: it is such a good model of the kinematic sequence that I would love to be able to show it to hitters like Alvarez. His swing needs a rebuild of his mechanics that displays the very same sequencing. McLean's arm is getting its energy and momentum by this sequence. The next frames would surely show his upper body opening up after his hips have slowed their rotation; and then his arm basically being slung threw and his wrist uncocking, etc. It's the same with hitting.
Nothing is ever 'easy on the body'. These are ballistic movements. But this is the kind of motion you want to see in every swing and throw. Love it. Please compare with Tong as a pitcher and Alvarez as a hitter. The latter is more worrisome to me, because he is getting all his power now without using the ground well, without transfering energy through his system. There is a massive disconnect and energy suck out that leaves him initiating all his power with his upper body and arms that leads him to open up early (the arms can't help but follow the shoulders) which makes him so vulnerable to speed up and in and horizontal pitches that are in the lower left quadrant and those that start there and finish way outside.
But let's keep this positive. McLean is to pitching mechanics what Hank Aaron and Juan Soto are hitting
Let's hope McClean doesn't get injured as often as the younger Wheeler, who didn't blossom until he left us.
McClean is already ahead of Wheeler's early Met days. Better control, goes deepen in games.
Think the Mets should hire Joel C as instructor of mechanics.
correction 'Aaron and Soto are to hitting.'
@RDS 900, I'm fine with your suggestion as long as they hire Joel C and not Jules C :-)
After I suffered an injury that ended my hopes of playing amateur golf at an elite level (probably a fantasy anyway) I had to reconstruct my swing and was helped by a terrific golfer who was an even better teacher, named Mac O'Grady. Some of you may remember him. In the 1980s and 90s he not only played on the tour and won, but spent most of his time teaching other pros he was competing against.
He developed a method called MORAD that included breakiing down the golf swing into 10 different positions p1-p10.
Mac himself had the most beautiful, effortless and powerful swing. He could play at a professional level both left and right handed. He was amazing to watch.
In his teaching he focused on motion, on loading and uloading energy. He used the 10 positions as guidelines for monitoring the swing, nothing else really. But in the hands of others, those positions became ends in themselves.
Teachers taught their students how to get from p1to p2 and what their wrists should look like at p4 and p5, and so on. So a world of students practiced being in those positions instead of developing movement or flow. Instructors in effect had students chasing pictures rather than developing an athletic move with good mechanics.
It would be like saying to Tong, after you plant your front foot, I want you to look like Mclean does with his hips level and his shoulders still closed relative to them. I am sure that Tong is an excellent athlete who can get himself in those positions, and do so without even making a dent in the efficiency of his motion.
It's all under the hood.
You've got to understand how the person moves, how they learn -- some need to understand the biomechanics -- some need only external drills that are outcome oriented.
It's easier to know what a good motion will look like than it is to help someone figure out how to implement it. I worry that the tools that are available in all the labs now, especially force plates, will be mistakenly used by coaches who mean well. They will try to get their players not only to sequence forces in the right relationship to one another, but to try to spike each force at the same place on the graph that such and such player does. It's just another way of chasing pictures, not creating fluid, flowing motions.
Early days for these tools in BB. We shall see.
That said, I love Mclean's motion. So does Joel C :-) He told me he would gladly accept any request Stearns or Cohen makes for his help.
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