When teams talk about “bounce-back” seasons, it usually sounds like hope dressed up as analysis.
That’s not what the Mets are doing with this rotation.
This staff isn’t being asked to become something new. It’s being asked to return to something it has already shown — with better health, better sequencing, and more rational usage. To deliver ~100 more innings than 2025.
That distinction matters.
The Difference Between Reversion and Reinvention
Reinvention is risky:
New arm slots
New pitch mixes
Velocity chases
Reversion is quieter:
Health restored
Timing re-synced
Workloads normalized
The Mets’ rotation is built around the second path — and supported underneath it.
Where the Reversion Lives (MLB Layer)
Kodai Senga
Senga’s issue has never been stuff. When his lower half is synced, his movement profile is still among the most uncomfortable in baseball.
The question isn’t dominance — it’s efficiency.
If his sequencing holds:
At-bats shorten
Walks normalize
Six innings become routine instead of aspirational
That alone changes the shape of games.
Sean Manaea
Manaea doesn’t need to rediscover velocity or deception. He needs his delivery working as a system again.
When his lower half drives the motion:
The fastball has more life
Command tightens
Pitch counts stabilize
He’s not a frontline ace. He doesn’t have to be. He’s a stabilizer.
David Peterson
Peterson’s 2025 wasn’t a mystery. It was a workload problem.
He was asked to absorb stress innings early, often, and without relief. That’s not sustainable.
Better usage doesn’t make him great (although he was an All-Star). It makes him usable longer.
Freddy Peralta
This is the anchor. Peralta isn’t here to be perfect. He’s here to:
Soak up innings
Miss bats
Prevent rotation collapse when others wobble
Provide leadership
That’s the point of the trade.
The Part That Actually Makes This Sustainable
This rotation doesn’t exist in isolation.
Behind it is organizational starting-pitching depth, layered across levels so the Mets don’t have to overextend anyone to survive the season.
Not a ranking. A coverage map.
MLB / Near-MLB
Freddy Peralta
Nolan McLean
Kodai Senga
David Peterson
Clay Holmes
Sean Manaea
Triple-A Coverage
Christian Scott
Jonah Tong
Brandon Waddell
Jack Wenninger
Jonathan Pintaro
Justin Hagenman
Double-A Pipeline
Will Watson
Jonathan Santucci
Zach Thornton
And the rest…
That’s not a list of “future aces.” It’s a list of credible innings. And that’s the point.
Why This Changes Everything
Because of this depth:
Short IL stints don’t become emergencies
Fatigue doesn’t force pitchers past their limits
Development doesn’t get sacrificed to survive June
The Mets don’t need all of these arms to hit. They need enough of them to exist.
That’s how you avoid spirals.
Why This Rotation Works as a Group
Individually, none of these pitchers guarantees success.
Collectively, they don’t need to.
The Mets aren’t betting on:
Four career years
Perfect health
April dominance
They’re betting that two or three normal outcomes, supported by layered depth, are enough to carry the season.
That’s how modern rotations survive years, not just starts.
The Bigger Picture
This rotation doesn’t scream upside. It whispers resilience - with upside potential.
And over 162 games, that usually matters more.
Next: why Mark Vientos still matters — and why the Mets don’t need him to become a star for this roster to work.
8 comments:
Last year, the pitching prospects were too far off in the distance to provide any help until late in the season. David needed to have a reasonably healthy staff. Instead, it was a health disaster. Health disasters don’t happen every year so your article is very incisive.
Senga. was Always sturdy in Japan. He is older, but I see no reason to expect yet another freak injury from him. I think he’s good to go.
Manaea will be 34 on opening day. All you can do is go with fingers crossed with him. He’s coming off a crappy year healthwise and then results wise when he returned and now he’s 34. The first year of his three-year contract, given his age, was always supposed to be the year that really made that deal makes sense. So, I think he’s the biggest question mark.
Peterson? A lot of people are down on him. But if you look at his pitching record for 2024 after he returned around memorial day from his hip surgery right through to mid August in 2025, he was pitching like an All-Star. I agree with you. He got tired, or maybe his arm was barking a little bit but not injured. Maybe he had dead arm. I am in the camp that he will be totally fine this year, especially running up to free agency, so he’ll want to impress the world.
Freddy should be dandy.
Holmes should be fine. Some people wonder if you’ll have tired arm issues after last year. I don’t think he will, because they avoided the postseason and he got an extra perhaps three weeks or four weeks off from pitching. Had they gone deep into the post season, I would’ve been concerned for 2026 for him. I am not.
I think the rest of your lists, absolutely scream resilience and depth. If David has another strong starter, I guess that would be OK. But I think starter wise, the Mets are good to go right now.
And, when you have a list of pitching prospects, like these excellent six, you are sitting in a sweet spot - if it’s possible that in two years, these six could be a solid MLB rotation. In my view,the other names in your list in those AAA categories that I left out, I see them as merely filler, or 2026 bullpen help as needed. I hope they are not needed to start a single game in 2026 frankly for the New York Mets.
Triple-A Coverage
Christian Scott
Jonah Tong
Jack Wenninger
Double-A Pipeline
Will Watson
Jonathan Santucci
Zach Thornton
You may be behind in some of this thinking
Tong, Wenninger, and Scott will all be in Queens THIS SEASON (sometime)
Nothing is going to be determined with the opening day 2026 rotation until pitchers/catcher's report, what, like 11 days and then spring training.
Yes, there are odds on favorites, but Senga was that too, right?
Stearns & Co. seem to be doing a good job constructing this team from ashes.
I'll let them continue.
I will bet the ranch that Senga will be in discussion to compete with Freddy Peralta as this upcoming year's ace. Senga was 8njured last year. He never got his physical coordination together. He's had an entire winter to rest and prepare to be the ace he was prior to Alonso's errant throw which sidelined Senga the remainder of the year. Look at Senga's history; when healthy, he's a gamer.
I agree way Roy. No way that Holmes with his pedestrian K/BB ratios should be over Senga. When Senga got hurt in early June, his ERA was 1.47.
What was not said but is vitally important is that Carlos Mendoza is on the same page with these adjustments. He cannot upset the apple cart like he did last year with his awful pitcher management.
100%. I believe that is one reason his entire coaching staff was replaced as well. Time will tell if Mendoza has the ability to adapt & grow from his experiences & the maturation of the broader organizational philosophy.
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