Open Email - Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, Adam Rubin, Robert Carson, Aderlin Rodriguez, Wilmer Flores

Hi Mack,

I'm glad that you continue to write. I have a couple questions for you. I know you have been focusing mainly on the minors, but I am curious about your opinion.

1. I understand that Ike Davis is more valuable in a trade than Lucas Duda, but Ike's first half crushed his stat line and I think he would not be as valuable as he could be to trade this winter. That said, rumors are popping up that Duda will be the first basemen and Davis could get traded this winter. For the first time, the other rumors are Davis is not listening to coaches and he stays out too late. Usually if a player is a problem child, you hear about it, especially with Mets players, as they come up through the minor leagues. This is the first time I have heard that about Davis. What is the real story here behind the scenes? Did he snub Adam Rubin and now Adam is trying to run him out of town? I think Davis is a piece to keep - good defense, turned his offensive season around. I think missing most of last year and whatever virus he had in the spring affected him more than was let on by the him or the organization.

2. Who is running the ship in the minor leagues? It seems like no one can decide what a player's future role will be and stick with it. I get that players like Jenrry Mejia and Jeurys Familia "project" as relievers, but at such young ages, why jerk them around? I'd like to see Familia get a couple starts and if he gets pummeled, he gets pummeled. Robert Carson looks good out of the bullpen, after he failed as a starter. I say let Mejia and Familia fail as starters before converting them rather than shuffle them back and forth. The same goes for the position players. The organization refused to move Wilmer Flores off shortstop forever, and then they shuffled him all over the infield.

Any insight you have would be appreciated.

Thanks!

bt

Okay... off the record (lol) ... and just my opinion...
 

1. snubbing Adam Rubin would make him the Captain of both the team and the press pool. NO ONE likes Adam Rubin. The team hates him, the players hate him, and the other beat writers hate him. And, IMO, it is earned.
 

2. Is Adam Rubin a decent reporter? Yes, he is... in fact, he is the best because he's such a pain in the ass. You have to follow him on Twitter (as a fan ) if you want every ounce of Mets info out there every day... he sleeps 3-hrs a day and does this 21-7
 

3. Personally, IMO, he's an absolute creep... but, that's just me.
 

4. There is nothing wrong with Ike Davis. He started the season with a fever that robbed him of his strength. (I have a pretty extensive garden... so far this year, I have been stung twice by hornets bitten once by a brown recluse spider... I spent 3 trips to the hospital and was sapped of my strength for weeks). Now, he's on pace to hit 30/100...
 

5. IMO, Lucas Duda has no trade value whatsoever. This is the best you get... don't read anything into him playing first base right now. It's just showcasing for a possible off-season package deal. Remember, first base IS Duda's natural position.
 

(the real decision the Mets need to make is what to do with their two potential "future first basemen", Aderlin Rodriguez, and Wilmer Flores. Both of these project as 30/90 MLB hitters but are currently without a position)
 

6. Paul DePodesa runs the minors, but TC decides who gets called up. Alderson looks over everything, but let's his VPs make their moves. It takes Collins to promote someone like Carson (btw, I am wrong about this guy... he looks like he has the stuff to make it big as a MLB reliever), and then TC can use him however he wants, but he has to be sent back down before DePo gets his hands on him and sends him wherever. Then, the manager of that minor league team choices the role for the player.
 

BTW... nothing gets done at the minor league level... lineups, demotions, assignments... nothing,,, without the permission of Flushing.
 

 

Mack

 

(boy, glad this shit is off-the-record...)

Stuff – Carson, Lowe, Tampon, Wheeler, Holt

Lone Lefty In The Bullpen

The Mets DFA’d Garrett Olson Saturday to make room for SP Johan Santana. This created another scenario in which the Mets have only one lefty coming out of the pen (Josh Edgin). Is this really happening again? They did this to Jesus Feliciano, pitched his arm off, but got lucky when it became the Yankees problem. Then came Tim Byrdak this year, totally overpitched throughout the first half of the season and now looks to permanently be left on the shelf. There’s no reason to do this to one of the Mets future stars. All you have to do is release Ramon Ramirez (who cares about the money) and bring up Robert Carson to spell Edgin. Carson has the gonzongas to handle the promotion and just might develop into a viable option in 2013. The team is 138 games down in the loss column and nothing should be executing to screw up the immediate future of this team. Terry, please, talk to Sandy here. 

Derek Lowe

Speaking of gonzangas, only the Yankees have the balls to pull off a signing like this. Barry Zito told me once that ‘the only New York road to the World Series comes through the Bronx’ and he was right. These are the kind of moves that make champions and Lowe is smart as hell to become part of a team that has a good chance of going all the way, regardless of how choppy they are playing right now. I used to root for the Mets and, boy, do I miss a team that has money in their checking account. Can you imagine if the Mets signed, oh, let’s say, Michael Bourn, Mike Napoli, and Cliff Lee in the off-season. How much easier would it be to win games with this team? Can you imagine how many people would fill the stands if the Mets won 100 games in 2013.  Should I care what it cost the Wilpons to get there? It never bothered George and the Yankees have the flags to prove it. The Mets? Two flags in 50 years. 

Fred Wilpon

Fred Wilpon was asked by Dave Lennon about the David Wright situation and Tampon shot back “ask Sandy.” Here we go again. (this portion was written before yesterday's post) More jicky-jacky bullshit about the heart and soul of your team. I assume most of you that read this are Mets fans. Let me tell you something. You’ve got one more year to enjoy David before he takes his talents to a team he has a chance of winning something with. Jose Reyes did, Wright will, so will RA Dickey, and anyone else that has a brain in their head. And just how much longer do you think Sandy and Depo are going to stick around for this shit? No, they too will be gone, probably in the off-season. Nobody wants to play for this owner. I take that back. Jon Niese must want to. The bottom line is the team you root for is owned by someone that makes the train guy on ‘Hell On Wheels’ look like the Owner of the Year. He doesn’t care folks. The Mets are his personal little sand box and you are the idiots that support everything he does and doesn’t do by going to the games, buying all the shit they sell, and paying SNY a subscription fee. Me? I don’t give him anything. I write about this team and stopped rooting for it as soon as I found out things about the Wilpons I should never have known. There will be a day the league (or the Teamsters) steps in and removes this guy, but until then, you will have to get used to small market baseball in a big town. This isn’t even Moneyball.  

Zack Wheeler

Wheeler tossed five no-hit innings in his second AAA start on Saturday. It will be interesting to watch how Sandy Alderson, Terry Collins, and Freddy Freeloader calls this one. I’m sure he has a bad outing coming up before the season ends, maybe two, but the Mets will leave Buffalo (for the last time) knowing they have something special in Wheeler. I wouldn’t assign him to a winter assignment… I take that back… I’d assign him to two, maybe three starts in Arizona, and then I’d tell him to go play on Twitter until the January camp opens up. I’m get him the nicest condo in St. Lucie, where all the good lookin’ girls live, and tell him to hide out at the 4pm senior dinner buffets that line the main drags there. I’d ban him from Duffy’s and ask him to wear a hoodie if he wants to go to the movie theatre near the batting cage (no, don’t hit anything!). I have no problem with him going to the beach but stay the hell out of the riptides. Yeah, I’d make him feel special but I wouldn’t have him host an autograph party at some local sports equipment store (the one Teddy and all the guys used to pawn their old equipment at). Opening day? Too early to say, but probably Rochester.

Brad Holt

Do we give this guy another shot? And how far do we go with him. We never accredited his bust to his talent. This was always Mets coaches screwing with his mechanics, something they don’t do now with pitchers like Zack Wheeler. Does anyone really care if these guys need a chiropractor six years from now? I just want five great years for all of them. Holt has good stats in AA this season, except for walks, which has always been his problem (31-G, 39.1-IP, 2-1, 3.20, 1.63, 35-K, 27-BB, only 1-HR). We’re the ball thrown just off the zone? Did he get bad calls from the umps? I’ll tell what they were… there were four pitches that should have wound up somewhere else. Batters get the book on you pretty early at this leave and, if your sink is too sinky, they’ll wait it out and let you give them first base (emphasis on OBP in that level). Holt had a peek at AAA, but that didn’t last long or fair well: 10.13, 2.81, 5.1-IP, 3-K, 4-BB. Obviously, he has earned himself a return to, where, Rochester, but do you bring him to Big League camp with a shot of making the 25-man?

Mack On: Reese Havens. Trey Rackel, Robert Carson, Chris Schwinden

      ·         The Mets announced that 2B Reese Havens was shut down and will get a cortisone shot in his back. So, let me understand this. His back hurts the day he arrives to camp? Fernando Martinez even showed up healthy, right? The Mets need to make a very important decision here. Both Havens and Jordany Valdespin are scheduled to play AAA this year and every scout will tell you that Valdespin is really a second baseman. Send Havens back to Binghamton until he’s 100% (if ever) and let Spin get a fair shot.

·         Trey Rackel checked in. Trey was an undrafted free agent that signed with the Mets in 2009. He went 2-2, 3.37, 1.24, 15-G, 26.2-IP, 26-K for the 2009 GCL Mets, was promoted to St. Lucie (1-0, 0.00, 0.33) and then disappeared after the injury bug set in. He simply never got another chance. “Rack filled me in where he is:

Hey long time no talk hope all is well!! Bet your excited for baseball to be back... I have finally found a place to play again here at home in Houston the new team in the Atlantic League called the Sugarland Skeeters. Hope all is well

 Check him out this season at: http://www.sugarlandskeeters.com/index.cfm

·         Adam Rubin reported that RP Robert Carson has been cleared to pitch again which is good news for both him and the Mets. Statistically, Carson hasn’t proven he can make it to the dance, but he is one of the few left handed pitchers in a system that currently has only one on their parent team. He’s got an outside chance of making it to Queens on opening day, but it’s going to take a stellar spring to get there.

·         I asked Chris Schwinden if he was happy with the results of his first outing in the second intrasquad game:

“Ya! There are some minor adjustments to be made of corse. It was good to get on the mound again and face hitters.”

Chris is probably destined to start the season back in Buffalo, though everyone knows that there is a slot open in the rotation once the “Johan Santana push for opening day” comes to a screeching halt.

He’ll well aware of what is coming behind him (Harvey, Familia…) and knows the Rule 5 Draft is right down the road. I don’t expect him to be converted to a reliever. This will be Schwinden’s defining season.

Mets: Lucas Duda, Matt den Dekker, Robert Carson, Alex Cora

Mets:  Lucas Duda, Matt den Dekker, Robert Carson, Alex Cora

Lucas Duda is a fantasy sleeper darling, and why not? He hit .292 with 10 home runs and 50 RBI in 100 games last season, and he's expected to earn the right field job outright. His average seems relatively sustainable (.326 BABIP vs. .314 xBABIP), and his FB% (43.4) could be an asset with the walls moved in. A word of caution, though: His 2011 numbers could be inflated because he had the advantage of playing as part of a platoon. He can mash righties, but against lefties his numbers are below average, especially in the power department (.209 ISO vs. RHP, .113 vs. LHP). I like him as a late-round flyer, but guys who are constantly tagged with the sleeper label can tend to be overdrafted, especially in leagues that draft later in March. Tread lightly. http://www.faketeams.com/2012/2/6/2769925/2012-fantasy-baseball-mlb-real-teams-preview-new-york-mets

OF Matt den Dekker - Going back to that same old point, the highly athletic 24-yr old 2010 fifth rounder is one of only a handful in the system with a nearly fully developed plus-plus major league skill right now. According to scouts his center field defense is gold glove caliber today; having watched quite a bit of him with Binghamton in 2011 that jibes completely with what I witnessed. The surprise however was his bat, namely his power. After profiling as a light-hitting, glove-first prospect at the time he was drafted, den Dekker posted a nearly .200 ISO at both St. Lucie and Binghamton in 2011. Beyond that he is the rare player who contributes in all statistical categories, posting double-digits in doubles, triples, homers and stolen bases last season. The issue is that the same long swing from the left side that produced all those extra-base hits is also leading to a lot of strikeouts. More than a lot; in fact, den Dekker whiffed in a brutal 29% of his Double-A at bats last season, which even with a sustainable .305 BABIP pulled his batting average way down. Despite a very solid 8+ career walk rate, he will not have success at the highest levels with that amount of K's. Perhaps a change in approach is in order, less selling out for the long ball and more contact which is perfectly fine from a center fielder. Either way, while K's will always be an issue, if he can just bring them down to a more manageable level -- perhaps in the low 20's -- his solid on-base skills, athletic power/speed mix and sterling defense at a premium position give him the chance to be a major league starter in the mold of a Drew Stubbs. If not, he'll still make a quite valuable 4th-5th outfielder. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/2/6/2768128/2012-amazin-avenue-mets-top-50-prospect-15-11

2-6-12 – mlb  - Robert Carson, LHP: Carson had his struggles in Double-A last season, racking up a 5.05 ERA and a .299 opponent's average predominately as a starter. However, what makes the big-bodied, athletic southpaw a valuable option for the Mets is a fastball that tops out at 95 mph and an established cutter. Carson, now on the 40-man roster following a stint in the Arizona Fall League, could get his shot to break camp with the big league club as a bullpen option.

Cardinals signed INF Alex Cora to a minor league contract. Cora's contract comes with an invitation to spring training, where Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the 36-year-old will "serve as both competition and mentor for the club's group of less-experienced infielders." It doesn't sound like he has much of a shot at grabbing an Opening Day roster spot. http://www.rotoworld.com/headlines/mlb/348671/baseball-headlines?r=1

Mets: Jeurys Familia, Robert Carson, Frank Francisco, Matt Harvey, John Maine

1-26-12: - http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012/index.jsp?partnerId=aw-6182194846943667814-996  - Scouting report: As the strikeout rate attests, Jeurys Familia has one of the best power arms in the Mets’ system. He runs his fastball easily into the upper 90s. He’s still more arm strength than anything else, but his success in Double-A shows that his secondary pitches are improving. His breaking ball should be an average pitch and his changeup, while clearly his third pitch, can keep hitters honest at times. He improved his walk rate, and the hope is his overall command will continue to get better.

1-23-12 - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/1/23/2693134/2012-amazin-avenue-top-50-mets-prospects  #45) LHP Robert Carson - Was I happy to see the AFL radar gun hitting 97mph this fall? Of course. Do I love his combination of size and power stuff from the left side? Who wouldn't. But ultimately, Carson has got to do something to stay up on these lists and frankly, in the past three seasons he hasn't. While it's fair to say that he was likely moved too fast, a couple of 5+ ERA's the last two years paired with consistently high walk rates, surprisingly low K-rates and ballooning opp. averages doesn't add up to a top prospect regardless of velocity or handedness. Add in the fact that his secondary offerings haven't developed as planned and it's hard to stay high on a guy who is pretty much hanging his hat on one superb season in rookie-ball almost five years ago.

Frank Francisco was, of course, signed for two years by the Mets to be the team’s closer, a role which he filled briefly in both Toronto and Texas. The fact that he doesn’t have a long track record of saves doesn’t bother me in the least, and there’s not much reason to believe he’ll struggle in the role over the next couple of seasons. It’s worth noting that Francisco held a 126 ERA+ over the past four years thanks in large part to the hitter-friendly environments in which he pitched. As a 32-year-old relief pitcher, he also figures to be a potential trade chip either this season or next since the Mets picked him up for a reasonable $6 million per year. http://www.amazinavenue.com/2012/1/27/2752625/2012-mets-player-profile-frank-francisco

1-27-12: - http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=6509  - 1. RHP Matt Harvey -Baseball-Reference Player Profile - Harvey was a 2006 PG/Aflac All-American and potential first round pick out of a Connecticut high school in 2007 but turned down a chance at a seven figure bonus to pitch for North Carolina. He was immediately tabbed as the potential first overall pick in the 2010 draft but struggled with consistency and command for his first two years at UNC before regaining his prospect status as a junior. The Mets picked him seventh overall and signed him to a $2.525M bonus just prior to the deadline. As should be expected (but doesn’t always happen) for a polished top college draft pick, Harvey started 2011 in Hi A and cruised through the Florida State League, then performed almost as well in the second half of the season in AA. He finished with a 13-5, 3.32 record in 135 innings, with only 47 walks and 156 Ks. Harvey throws a heavy low to mid-90s fastball and does a very good job of working down in the strike zone with the pitch. One of his distinguishing traits is that he’s able to hold his top velocity all the way through pitch counts and will often hit 95-96 mph late in games. Harvey’s top secondary pitch is a low-80s slider that has good depth and bite and is his primary strike out pitch. His curveball is primarily a show me type pitch for strikes and his change up is beginning to develop.

Honestly, we are trying to be positive. But, day after day, the Red Sox are making it very difficult not to be at least puzzled by these off-season moves. Tonight, the Red Sox signed journeyman pitcher John Maine to a minor league contract. Are you kidding me? This guy was jettisoned by the Orioles and the Mets. Maine does have fewer hits than innings pitched over his seven-year career, but he's a mediocre pitcher with a 4.35 ERA and is injury-prone. His career WHIP is 1.339. Come on. http://www.fenwaynation.com/2012/01/forget-maine.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Allan Dykstra, Robert Carson, Wilmer Flores, Holiday Blues, J.J. Putz

11-23-11: -  http://web.minorleaguebaseball.com/news/article.js p?ymd=20111110&content_id=25949502&fext=.j sp&vkey=news_milb&partnerId=rss_nym -   First base -- Allan Dykstra, Binghamton (121 games): Sharing the surname of a famous ex-Met, this unrelated Dykstra batted .267 and established career highs in home runs (19) and RBIs (77). That success came after he batted .241 in the hitter-happy Cal League as a member of the Padres organization in 2010. He was San Diego's first-round pick in 2008. "Considering the difference playing in the Cal League and the Eastern League, he performed especially well," DePodesta noted.

About two weeks ago Sand Alderson was discussing his options for the bullpen and one of the names that came up was Robert Carson. I was curious to find out more about a 22 y/o lefty, drafted in the 14th round of the 2007 draft, who hasn't been above AA and is now in the major league bullpen discussion. Last year Carson was a starter for Binghamton AA, in 24 starts he produced a 5.05 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP, while SO 6.4 per 9 / BB 3.6 per 9 and a 1.65 SO/BB ratio.

It appears that Carson is a fastball/slider (occasionally uses a change-up) power pitching lefty who projects to be a reliever  http://networkedblogs.com/qFhcd

11-28-11: - http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/11/mmo-top-20-mets-prospects-8-wilmer-flores-inf.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MetsMerizedOnline-GetMetsmerized-NewYorkMets+%28Mets+Merized+Online%29  - Flores is certainly still young and raw, but with 4 minor league seasons, and 1838 minor league at-bats, he has laid the foundation for what should be a very solid big league career someday. As he matures physically, his best position on the field will become clear, along with an emerging ability to drive the ball out of the yard. In the meantime, look for Flores to hit for a much higher average next season as he catches up in age to the other players around him, and adjusts to more advanced pitching. Hopefully he will transition well to a new defensive position that is better suited to his skill-set, which would move him a step or two closer to The Show. Next year will be crucial for Flores’ development, and with luck, I look for him to be a viable candidate to bring up to the Mets by September of 2013.

Reyes has one foot out the door. Management is preparing itself for a midseason fire sale. And after 4 straight seasons of utter depravity, there appears to be no end in sight. The highlight of the Mets off season this year, I guarantee will be the fact that they are moving the walls in at Citi Field. That's it. I'm not saying the Mets need to go out and sign pricey free agents or make trades to be contenders this year. I realize this is a rebuilding process, but the Mets need a new marketing team because there is absolutely nothing coming out to make Mets fans even feel like there's something good to come out of the 2012 season. http://metslifers.blogspot.com/2011/11/holiday-blues-for-mets-fans.html

J.J. Putz – $11 - Three years removed from utter dominance during the 2006-2007 seasons, Putz returned to the closer’s role full-time in 2011 and very quietly had one of the best seasons of any reliever in the game. His strikeout (9.47 K/9 and 26.6 K%) and walk (1.86 BB/9 and 5.2 BB%) numbers were as good as it gets, and all four of his blown saves came in June, just before he hit the disabled list with elbow inflammation. That’s the big concern with Putz, his spotty health track record. He was day-to-day with back spasms a few times in addition to the elbow problem this year, and he’s been on the DL five times since the start of 2008. There’s a lot of risk here, but also a lot of upside. http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/2012-closer-keeper-rankings-tier-two

Who do You Protect???

The pre-Rule 5 draft 40 man rosters are due to the MLB today and for the Mets their are some interesting names that may need protecting. The most important of the names are CF Kirk Nieuwenheis, SP Jeurys Familia, OF Juan Lagares, 2B Reese Havens, OF Cesar Puello, LHP Robert Carson, RHP Colin McHugh, 3B Jefry Marte, RHP Bradley Holt, SS Wilmer Flores, RHP Mark Cohoon, and others.

The Mets currently have 32 players on the 40 man roster so they are able to protect up to 8 of their eligible prospects minus any selections they may want to make. In my opinion i would think Alderson would like to keep at least 1 or 2 slots open to try to pluck some bullpen help from other teams AAA squads.

With that in mind I'd protect Captain Kirk, Familia, Lagares, Havens, Puello, Carson, and Flores. The reason i protect Puello and Flores is because we have already seen that some teams are willing to dig as deep as into the Single A teams to pluck good potential prospects (Washington Nationals selection of C Jesus Flores being the prime example).

The reason i leave Marte unprotected is because we have Aderlin Rodriguez right behind him and even if Marte has a break-out year he is still blocked by Wright at 3B and Davis at 1B. I also leave McHugh unprotected because he's basically the same pitcher as Schwinden and Gee. They are "dime a dozen" guys that can be found every year.

tpgMets provides a full listing of eligible Rule 5 guys here http://tpgmets.blogspot.com/p/rule-5.html

Cutnpaste: - Jose Reyes, Robert Carson, Cone on Jose, Wright in 2013, Ottawa Mets Owner

According to Andy Martino of the Daily News, “Sources familiar with the team’s thinking have maintained that the Mets are unwilling to offer six or seven years (to Jose Reyes), and might be uncomfortable with five.” In regards to the team’s parameters for re-signing Reyes, Martino quotes Sandy Alderson as saying, “We have a sense of where we would be comfortable or slightly less comfortable (or) totally uncomfortable.” http://www.metsblog.com/2011/11/01/mets-unwillingly-to-offer-six-or-more-years-to-reyes

11-1-11: - http://mbd.scout.com/mb.aspx?s=228&f=1381&t=8181112  - Interesting, pretty positive scouting report on Robert Carson; sits at 92-95 and touches 96 fairly often, with good hop on the ball.  Overall upshot is pretty much what IPA has been saying for some time now, that scouts like him better than his numbers would suggest, and he can become an above-average major league starter IF he can learn to command his pitches better, which mainly will come from learning to repeat his proper arm slot.

“There are better fits, places that give him a better chance to win, probably. If he really loves playing for the Mets, maybe he’ll give them a discount, so to speak, or work with them. Bit it’s his first go-round. It’s gonna be hard for him to take less money.”  ~  David Cone  http://metsmerizedonline.com/2011/11/cone-leiter-gooden-weigh-in-on-reyes.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=twitter&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MetsMerizedOnline-GetMetsmerized-NewYorkMets+%28Mets+Merized+Online%29

Several issues would complicate this. As the Daily News reported last summer, Wright can void his $16 million club option for 2013 if he is traded. That will limit what the Mets can receive in return, because an acquiring team in July would be guaranteed only half a season from Wright. He could agree to an extension with the new club, but that would present a further wrinkle in trade negotiations. It is also worth remembering Wright's loyalty close friends say, affectionately, that he is loyal to a fault and his genuine desire is to lead the Mets out of this latest wilderness. In an age of cold capitalism in sports, those qualities are rare. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/expect-david-wright-remain-ny-mets-article-1.970967

Binghamton Mets President Michael Urda refuted a report that a group of investors was in negotiations to buy the franchise and move it to Ottawa. Contrary to the report, Urda -- who is part of the franchise's ownership group -- said he plans to seek an extension of the club's lease for NYSEG Stadium with the city. BallParkDigest.com reported on Monday night that a group called Beacon Sports Capital Partners had begun working on a lease for Ottawa Stadium with city officials there. The report asserted "there have been serious negotiations to buy the Binghamton Mets and move the team to Ottawa as soon as 2013, should a new lease be arranged." http://www.pressconnects.com/article/20111101/SPORTS/111010395/B-Mets-president-Team-intend-extend-lease-not-move?odyssey=mod%7Cnewswell%7Ctext%7CFRONTPAGE%7Cs

Cutnpaste: - Robert Carson, Fernando Martinez, Phillip Evans, Reese Havens, 2012 Bullpen

10-26-11: - http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2011/10/26/colemans-corner-mets-position-players-shining-in-arizona-sun   - Then there’s left-hander Robert Carson. Or as he refers to himself on his Facebook page – Robert “I’mdestinedforgreatness” Carson. Whoa, big fella, dial that one back just a little bit. At Double AA Binghamton this season, Carson went 4-11 with a 5.05 ERA in 24 starts and one relief appearance. He gave up a whopping 154 hits in 128 innings, striking out 91 but walking 55. Not pretty. In Arizona, he’s still giving up too many hits – 10 in 9 1/3 innings – but the numbers are better – a 2.89 ERA in 5 relief appearances.

10-25-11: - http://www.newyorkmetsreport.com/2011/10/25/mets-have-precious-few-pieces-to-trade - Fernando Martinez: Had been sought after in previous years, but is a fragile, injury risk whose value has declined. Too bad they can’t turn back the clock two years. If the Mets can swing something with him, they should do it, but his real value to them would be to stay healthy and reach his potential, which is becoming less and less likely.

10-26-11: - http://www.metstoday.com/7132/mets-minors/a-look-into-the-future-top-shortstop-prospects   -  Phillip Evans   DOB: 9/10/1992  Birthplace: Carlsbad, CA  Height: 5’10”   Weight: 185  R/R  -  I’m not going to even talk about his stats because they are irrelevant since he only played 9 games. However, he did reach Brooklyn, something Brandon Nimmo did not do. When the Mets snagged him on the signing deadline day, I remember rejoicing that we did not let him go. He’s practically my age and I’m praising him. His frame is pretty much maxed out at this point. It’s impossible to predict growth spurts, but you never know. Evans reminds me of your classic shortstop, who has potential to hit a few homeruns while being a solid gap hitter. He represented the west coast in the 2010 AFLAC All-American game, where he snagged the MVP honors in front of his hometown fans. According to Replacement Level Baseball, they clocked Evans in high school at 4.1 from home to first, predicting that he can be an “admirable base stealer at the next level”. RLP also said that Evans’ arm could be projected at a 65, well above average on the scouting scale. He’s what you want a high school prospect to look like. It’s not going to take him much time to fit into the system because he has the tools to succeed.

10-26-11: - http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/what-do-the-mets-have-in-reese-havens  - Reese Havens’ health has been his biggest flaw as a player since being drafted by the Mets in the 1st round of the 2008 Draft (22nd overall) out of the University of South Carolina.  Skeptics might be concerned he will never stay healthy.  While he does strikeout at a high rate, I will give Havens the benefit of the doubt due to the lack of consistent at-bats. Overall, I like what I saw from Havens when he was on the field.  That potential is what draws the attention of scouts and the Mets front office staff.  Havens just turned 25, and the clock is ticking very quickly for him.  Should Havens stay healthy, the Mets look like they have their future everyday second-baseman.

The bullpen, which lacked the hard middle-inning throwers that other teams employed, desperately can use reinforcements. Mets relievers combined for a 4.33 ERA and .267 opponent batting average this past season, both ranked 15th in the National League. The Houston Astros were the only team to finish worse, with a 4.49 reliever ERA and .269 opponent batting average. "Of course the bullpen was a big disappointment -- overall and certainly the last two months of the season," Alderson said in the Mets' clubhouse at Citi Field the day after the regular-season finale. "So I think a lot of our success or failure next year is going to be a function of pitching, regardless of who's playing for us. Now that doesn't mean we're going to go spending all of our money on pitching and not try to sign Jose. But I think our fate lies more on the pitching side than anything else  http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7148914/new-york-mets-finding-capable-arms-bullpen-key-amazins

Cutnpaste: - Willie Harris, Josh Thole, Dave Kingman, 2014, Robert Carson

Willie Harris played five positions -- six, including designated hitter -- but spent most of his time in left field. He is a point of contention amidst the alleged sabermetric groupthink that is Amazin' Avenue. Harris was a leading vote-getter for the AA Mets' Worst Hitter Award, yet I don't think he was as horrible as alleged. He posted a .351 OBP as a reserve while playing, in my estimation at least, solid defense. Yes, his power was Tholian and he probably played a bit too often but Harris wasn't the catastrophe that many made him out to be. That said, securing a Harris return in 2012 should not be an offseason priority. - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/10/25/2494933/2011-postmortem-left-field

Josh Thole: Young, inexpensive with more potential than production. Thole did not perform to expectations and wouldn’t draw attention from a team wanting a starting catcher. Teams needing a catcher have more experienced options in the free-agent market. It’s hard to believe anybody would trade for him to be a starter. http://www.newyorkmetsreport.com/2011/10/25/mets-have-precious-few-pieces-to-trade

In an era when 40 home runs might lead a league, Dave Kingman stood out. The 6-foot-6 slugger, nicknamed Kong for his larger-than-life displays of power, was a prodigious longball threat, bashing 442 homers over the course of a 16-year career from 1971-1986. He led his league just twice, but only Mike Schmidt (495) and Reggie Jackson (448) went yard more often during that timeframe. And while HitTracker had yet to be invented, few people produced the distance that he did with his homers; his April 14, 1976 shot is said to be the longest in the history of Wrigley Field; it left the Friendly Confines and struck the third house beyond Waveland Avenue, some 530 feet away. http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=15364

You can generously say the Mets' timetable for returning to division-title contention is 2013, when pitching prospects Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler and Jeurys Familia might be legitimate major league contributors. But it is not until the following season that the Mets get true liberation from their weighty contracts, when Johan Santana is off the books and Jason Bay may be cleared off as well (assuming what may be a controversial vesting option based on plate appearances over the next couple of seasons does not kick in for 2014). Too often in the past the Mets made decisions based on public perception. That's how they got into the predicament of their cumbersome contracts in the first place. Rather than make pure baseball decisions, they signed big-ticket players to appease the fan base and sell tickets with little consideration for the down-the-road ramifications of those payroll commitments. www.espn.com

10-26-11: - http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/mike-newman-prospects-chat-102511  - Comment From Robert Carson - Is my fastball and slider enough to be a MLB middle reliever? Mike Newman: Fastball has enough giddy-up, but the slider still falls short. I guess I can mention this now since it was a couple of years ago, but near the trade deadline, I was specifically asked if he could be a guy who sat at 94 out of the pen as an adrenaline reliever. I thought he could at the time and still think he'll get a big league shot at some point.

Building 2012 Rosters Prospects First - Picks 36-40

Okay, we need to stop at this point and add a few names of ex-prospects that have stumbled but still should be given some kind a chance next year, or almost prospects that are great insurance policies in case someone goes down in Queens.

#36 – OF Fernando Martinez - I’m not going to spend a lot of time here. I truly believe that Martinez had the talent to excel in this business, but his body simply didn’t back up the tools. He has spent more time trying to heal than trying to improve and his only future in baseball now is as a utility bat off the bench. His arthritis has robbed him of his speed and he’s no longer an option in CitiField’s difficult right field. This is sad, but it is also true. The Mets will most probably play him one more year in Buffalo and then, all bets are off. - ETA: out of system in 2013

#37 – RP Brad Holt – let’s not talk anymore here about spilled milk. Holt is now a relief pitcher and is showing some signs that he may someday be successful in this role. He has been erratic, but we’ll give him that for the rest of the season. You will see him in the Binghamton pen next season and, if thigs go well, he’ll finish the season with Buffalo. – ETA: TBD

#38 – RP Robert Carson – Sadly, this is another ex-prospect that has gone in the wrong direction. 2011 has been a miserable year for Carson. He’s given up 82 runs in 119 innings and only has 83 strikeouts. You’re suppose to strikeout more batters than you allow to cross the plate. He also doesn’t have the velo to make it in the Mets pen. No control plus no velo equals no mas. I have him in the Buffalo pen next season, which, IMO, will be his last as a Met. – ETA: out of system in 2013

#39 – 1B Alan Dykstra – I really liked this signing. Dykstra hasn’t panned out to be the stud he was projected to be coming out of school, but he’s a damn good third option at first base in case both Ike Davis and Lucas Duda go down at the same time. He’s had a very decent year in Binghamton: .255/.382/.454/.836, 17-HR, 69-RBI. That translates as 12th in the league in homers and 8th in ribbys. He will settle in nicely in Buffalo next spring and may play there for a number of years. Yeah, good sign. – ETA: AAAA

#40 – OF Mike Baxter – Like Dykstra, this was a great sign. Baxter is another potential AAAA player that could be in the system for 3-5 years. Right now, he’s holding his own on the Mets bench. I’ve got him playing full time in Buffalo next season, but I might be wrong here. It looks like the 2012 Mets outfield will be Lucas Duda, Angel Pagan, and Jason Bay. Probably Scott Hairston and Willie Harris are gone and there is a good chance that both Baxter and Nick Evans could do utility work in Queens. We’ll have to wait and see if the man-love with Jason Pridie continues. ETA: 2012 – Buffalo


Rosters So Far:


Buffalo: (9) –SP Chris Schwinden, Collin McHugh, RP Robert Carson, IF Alan Dykstra, Reese Havens, Jordany Valdespin, OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Fernando Martinez, Mike Baxter


Binghamton: (9) – SP: Mike Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Jeurys Familia, Darin Gorski, RP Josh Edgin, Brad Holt, IF Jefry Marte, OF Matt den Dekker, Cesar Puello


St. Lucie: (10) – SP Greg Peavey, Taylor Whitenton, Angel Cuan, RP Cory Mazzoni, Jack Leathersich, Chase Huchingson, IF Wilmer Flores, Aderlin Rodriguez, OF Cory Vaughn, Gilbert Gomez


Savannah: (3) – SP Akeel Morris, Alex Panteliodis, Erik Goeddel,


Brooklyn: (4) – SP: Michael Fulmer, Juan Urbina, IF Phillip Evans, OF: Brandon Nimmo


Kingsport: (2) – SP Luis Mateo, OF Vincente Lupo

The Keepers: - #40 - SP - Robert Carson

40.  Robert Carson – SP –



Carson had a disappointing senior season at Hattiesburg, finishing 3-5 with only 36 Ks. The bright spot was his 2.65 ERA. As a junior, he went 5-2 with 2 saves and a 2.15 ERA with 60 Ks.


The Mets drafted Carson in the 14th round of the 2007 draft. He signed and was placed on The GCL Mets roster, where he went 1-0, 5.00 in 4 games, 1 start.


Scouts say he has a “big time arm” and throws a “heavy” fastball. Carson features 4 pitches, a fastball, changeup, cutter and curveball. His fastball sits 90-92, and has topped out at 94. His changeup sits around 75-80, while his curveball is low to mid 70s.


In 2008, Carson started out with the GCL Mets and pitched impressively: 1-0, 1.57, 0.74. He was promoted to Kingsport, where he went 2-3, 1.76 in 6 starts.


In 2009, Carson pitched a full season for Savannah and went: 8-10, 3.21, 1.40, but only 90-K in 131.2-IP. He also walked 45 batters.


Carson’s 3 year pro stats are: 12-13, 2.87, 1.34.


1-1-10 Forecast: - Carson would have been ranked higher if he finished the season strong, but he didn’t. The Mets should have bumped him to St. Lucie at least two months prior to the end of the season, but they didn’t, and that could have been hanging over Carson. There’s a hell of a lot of talent here along with his confidence and bravado. I look for a tremendous season at St. Lucie in 2010.


5-22-10: Carson has put together three decent starts coming into Friday night, after starting the season all over the place. He did give up 12 hits Friday night, but his overall stats were impressive: 7.1-IP, 2-ER, 3-K. His ERA is now down to 4.95 from a year high of 81.00 on April 15.


5-22-10: - SP Robert Carson: Carson also got off to a bad start, especially his second outing of the year (0.2-IP, 6-ER, 81.00). The good news is, in his last three outings, Carson has stats of: 16.1-IP, 5-ER, 12-Ks. His last outing on May 17 was especially hot, striking out nine in 5.0-IP. Carson is 21-years old and, like Familia, projects out as a possible 2013 starter for the Mets


6-17-10: - A+ SP Robert Carson had another great outing, throwing 6..0 scoreless innings, giving up only two hits and striking out seven. His ERA is now below five, and he's given up only 2-ER in his last three starts (19.0-IP). This is real good news folks and there actually is a chance you may see him move on to Binghamton at some point this season.


6-30-10: - Carson did everything he could to throw a shutout Monday night… his first seven innings were close to perfect, but he eventually tired in the 8th inning, giving up four runs (7.2-IP, 4-ER, 9-H, 4-K, 1-BB). He did get the victory (6-4), and his ERA ended up at 4.54. There’s been a bunch of negativity in the scouting world involving Carson… many question whether he has that “something special”needed to make it someday in the Bigs. No one has every questioned his confidence (his Facebook name is Robert “Imdestinedforgreatness” Carson.) Let’s hope this is another sign that his game is returning.


7-4-10: - Carson continued Sunday night putting his season back together... 7.0-IP, 2-ER, 7-K, 1-BB... ERA down to 4.37. That translates to a 3.41 ERA over the last 10 starts, which, if that was his seasonal stats, he would already be on is way to Binghamton.


9-1-10 – Stock Down – Look, no matter how we break this down, Robert Carson has not progessed enough this past season to be currently considered a top pitching prospect. He was absolutely lit up last night, going 5.0-IP, 9-H, 7-ER, 5-K, 2-BB, 1-WP. His Binghamton ERA is now 8.74, and, if you add that to his 4.17 in Lucy, the year looks like: 8-11, 5.74., with only 97-K in 131.2-IP, plus 55-BB. This hasts not been a great year for three of the Mets top so-called pitching prospects (Carson, Jeurys Familia, Brad Holt) and the season seesm to be coming to an end at the right time for Robert.

In 2010, Carson had various levels of struggles. His St. Lucie stint (7-5, 4.17, 69-K, 86.1-IP) was so-so at best and most people thought he got his promotion to Binghamton because he was the lesser of five evils. At Binghamton, he really pitched badly and ended the season 1-6, 8.32, and injured.



2011 Forecast: - The Mets have already annoucned that Carson will pitch winter ball in Arizona. You and I should be so lucky after a year like this. Carson earns this for one reason; his fastball can sit in the 93-95 range. For this reason alone, the Mets will continue to try and get this "very confident" young man to develop the control and accuracy needed to at least excell in the pen. Carson will repeat the Binghamton rotation if everything goes well in the winter.



3-26-11: - Down – SP – Robert Carson – you just don’t hear this guy’s name anymore when they write about Mets’ prospects. Carson showed so much promise when he was in Savannah and he looked so intimidating on the mound. The problem was his velo never matched his intensity. He turned 22 this past January and is 20-24, 4.02, 1.47 over the four seasons he has pitched in the organization. I expect him to repeat Binghamton after going 8.32 there in 10 starts.


4-10-11: - Stock UP: - SP Robert Carson - Impressive first outing from RHP Robert Carson - 5.0-IP, 0-ER, 5-H, 4-K, 0-BB. Prospect wise, Carson has been further along than Jeurys Familia, but with less stuff. The secret to his game is control. Batters will tell you that they believe he pitches much faster than the gun says. It’s all due to his dominating delivery. This is another welcomed first outing from a Mets starter.


5-4-11: - Robert Carson was the starting pitcher tonight. Carson has hovered just below the prospect line since he was drafted by the Mets in the 14th round of the 2007 draft. He is a very intimidating pitcher whose fastball seems to travel faster than the 88-91 range he sits in. He also works very fast which makes him more intimidating. He’s had two problems as a pro. First, he has a difficult time getting batters out with runners on base (mechanics) and, secondly, he’s had trouble with left-handed batters (though, so far this year he is 0.00 against lefties). This is his fifth outing this season. He gave up 1 run in each of his first two games… two in his third outing… eight last time out. Carson didn’t disappoint. He went 6.0, giving up two runs and striking out four.


5-9-11: - SP Robert Carson continues to go south. I reported earlier this week that “people” had told me that his early success this year did not properly represent his game. Carson has continued to stay a “free spirit” and not allow those around him to help control his natural talent. Tonight: 4.1-IP, 6-H, 5-ER, 2-K, 5-BB, 4.60 for the year. His Facebook page name was Robert “I’mDestinedForGreatness” Carson, but I’m not sure it’s still that since we don’t follow each other. Gonna have to move him down the list now.

5-24-11: - Mets Minor League Pitching Coordinator Rick Tomlin to Matt Eddy/BA on Carson: - “We wanted to get him using both sides of the plate,” Tomlin said. “In the past he was a little more one-side-of-the-plate dominant (to his glove side). We like to see our pitchers use both sides of the plate, and now he believes he can do that. Now the emphasis will be on the changeup and not being afraid to use it.


5-26-11: - Look, the fact is that Robert Carson is just not progressing as a potential major league starting pitcher. He’s been stalled at the same excellence level for two years and the 6-3 LHP isn’t even that dominant against lefties (2.79). Carson has never been one of those dominant strikeout pitchers so he doesn’t project well as an 8th inning guy or closer. I’m sure he’ll finish this season as a starter, but the Mets would be smart to start making the conversion to the pen in 2012 in hopes of salvaging the time spent here.



6-5-11: - I don’t know if this is a growing story, but I’m throwing it out anyway. First, I printed the press release that I receive from the B-Mets every day on the upcoming game. It also includes the probably pitchers for the next four games, something I usually don’t reprint because it does tend to change. The strange thing this time is all four upcoming games have “TBA” under the Mets probably pitcher. Very strange, but then, I noticed that Collin McHugh was starting on Sunday in place of Robert Carson’s slot. Lastly, Carson tweeted and confirmed that he wasn’t starting. Frankly, all this TBA stuff is a week too early. Both St. Lucie and Savannah got big time pennant races going on I their first half of the season, so I don’t expect any big time transfers to come out until this time next week. More as I find it out.



7-5-11: - http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/aa-weekend-harvey-valdespin-keeps-on-hitting  - Sunday, Robert Carson had the kind of start I’ve come to expect: 6 IP, 8 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K, 1 HR, 5 gb/7 flyouts… Lots of runners. Not missing many bats. Just eh.



7-6-11: - http://www.metsminorleagueblog.com/mid-season-top-41-review-part-three-26-30  - Fewer hard-hit balls are becoming hits, and his strikeout rate in AA has climbed back to his St. Lucie level. He’s been better in AA in 2011 than 2011. However, but I’m not sure that this degree of better will be enough to remain a starter, or at least one with much value in the big leagues.


7-14-11: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/7/11/2270752/mets-minors-road-report-binghamton-7-9-brooklyn-7-10  - Not a great performance from the lefthander, but I don’t know that it is a stuff issue. Fastball was popping in at 91-92 and the slider looked decent. Control issues and some defensive butchery made things worse. He is only 22, which I always forget, since it seems like he has been around forever. I still think he could be a useful piece out of the pen if he figures out how to get the groundballs back. Everybody else in the org is adding a cutter, so maybe he should try it.


7-26-11: - http://www.amazinavenue.com/2011/7/26/2287253/mets-mid-term-farm-system-review-2011-binghamton#storyjump  - LHP Robert Carson - STOCK DOWN - Look, he's definitely been better in Double-A in 2011 than in 2010. His K/9, BB/9 and HR/9 are all better. He's improved, just not as much as you'd like from a top pitching prospect. At 22, he's no longer that young and the Eastern League is having no poblem hitting him as he's allowed a .292 average against thus far. Even worse, one of the hallmarks of his game, an excellent GB%, has deteriorated since the promotion to Bingo. It's never wise to \ disregard a 20-something, 6'3" lefty that can consistently hit 93mph but I must say that I expect a better results from someone with that profile. He still shows reasons to hope -- see, last night's performance -- but I continue to envision Carson's realistic major league ceiling as a late-inning lefty a la Antonio Bastardo.