Mike Freire - Fleeting Thoughts

Good Morning, Mets’ fans.

I hope that everyone is continuing to do well and that you are finally getting a break from the excessively long Summer we just experienced.  My wife and I decided to flee our home State of Florida and head for the hills, so to speak (Hendersonville, NC).  I tell you, the mountains are just what the soul needs sometimes, even if it is just for a week.

With that said, the NLCS and the ALCS have been completed since my last effort in this series and we finally have our World Series combatants identified (I will touch on this match up a bit later in this piece).

In the meantime, let’s get on with this article.

1.  This will be a bit off topic, but I felt the need to spread the word a bit.  For those of you who enjoy drinking a beer or two from time to time, you have probably enjoyed one of the many varieties that Sierra Nevada Brewery has produced over the years.  If you get the chance, they opened a second brewery in Mills River, NC (just south of Asheville) a few years ago and that place is really hitting it's stride!  From the quality of their products, to their overall generosity and their awareness of their environmental impact, they simply "get it".  

Their basic tour is free (with a reservation) and it will tell the story far better then anything I can share with you.  In short, if you are in the area you owe it to yourself to visit the site and enjoy what they have to offer.  

2.  Getting back to baseball, I found it interesting how easily the Red Sox dispatched the defending champion Astros.  Granted, it wasn't a total cake walk, but the Red Sox dispatched them in five games and looked to be in control for most of the time.  Remember, the Astros won 103 games this past season, so they were not a pushover.  I think this bodes well for their chances in the World Series, provided they continue to get the quality of relief pitching that they enjoyed in the previous series.

The NLCS was much more competitive, until the seventh game where it looked like the Brewers ran out of gas and produced a "flat" effort.  I mentioned it in one of my previous "pennant race" articles, but the Dodgers just looked like the most talented team in the National League, despite their inconsistent play from time to time.  When they are focused, they are as good as anyone in baseball which also bodes well for their chance in the World Series.  I would not be surprised if the "Fall Classic" goes the distance and the Red Sox take care of business on their home field when all is said and done (I guess that counts as a prediction).

3.  Changing the focus from other teams to our favorite team, I continue to shake my head at how LONG the new GM search is taking!  Folks, the Mets are a big market club with quite a bit of talent on the roster, so you would think that "up and coming" executives would be lining up for a chance to take the wheel, right?

Of course, I did not mention the "Wilpon factor" which is hard to quantify because none of us are actually in the club house or in the executive suite.  If we go on rumor, innuendo and reputation, it seems like working for the Wilpon's is less than desirable (to put it nicely).  This HAS to be the reason why the search is taking so long and why some of the rumored candidates have pulled their name out of consideration.  Right?

Despite this delay, we still have a couple of weeks before the season is officially over and personnel moves will begin in earnest.  Can we get Sandy's replacement in house by that point, please?  I am secretly pulling for the gentleman from the Rays organization, since he is used to shoestring budgets and playing in a tough division, but that's just me. 

4.  Other then the GM discussion(s), there have been a few lively "comments section" debates on this site over the past few days.  If you haven't read them, then you should look up the previous articles and do so.  I enjoy a good baseball argument (without name calling and other drama that is so common today) and that is exactly what you will find there.  

Sometimes I think we have forgotten that it is OK to disagree (when you do so respectfully).  The topic doesn't matter so much, but it forces you to be open minded and to consider what the other person is saying.  You might actually learn something once in a while, or even change your mind!

A good example is the ongoing Manny Machado debate (take that with a large grain of salt, since no one is actually sure that he would come to the Mets in the first place).  Maybe you want him signed at all costs or maybe you don't think his "value" will match his contract.  Perhaps you think of him as a Short Stop, or you prefer him at Third Base.  I was firmly in the "no thank you" camp, since I hate investing so much money in one player.  But, after reading over the listed comments a bit, I have relaxed my approach and I am now open to the possibility of adding his name to our roster (depends on the actual contract, of course).

That is what blogs like this are all about and it will only get more interesting as the off season approaches.

Well, that is all for today......stay safe out there, folks.

Reese Kaplan -- Deliveries from Down Under

As a somewhat taller than average young man I was coopted into working a church carnival at the behest of my mother who was trying to curry favor with the local parish.  I wasn’t all that enthusiastic about it being the sullen teenager (wait, isn’t that redundant?) I’d become.  However, it was kind of like a job, I’d be handling money, prizes and have some responsibility so it was indeed going to break up the ho-hum existence of my early summer.

Things took a dramatic turn for the better when I arrived and was told I could work my choice of the carnival games.  While most young boys would gravitate to the shooting activities, I made a beeline to the booth where they had the cat dolls propped up awaiting contestants to hurl baseballs at them to knock them down.  After all, I was a pure baseball geek and this was a way to combine what my mother wanted me to do with something I would enjoy.

All throughout the day during the rather slow carnival I had lots of time on my hands to practice.  Initially I was simply aiming to try to knock down the cats but as the day progressed my game became more of one of velocity, seeing how fast I could throw the ball and still maintain some semblance of accuracy.  I did that for the duration of my shift which was probably about 4-6 hours.

Needless to say, when I awakened the next morning I could barely lift my arm.  I had not stretched nor otherwise prepared for the abuse I would heap upon my bicep.  I knew it was muscular pain from overuse and it would subside in a couple of days but I had a Little League baseball game to play the next day and I was fretting over how I would participate given the fact I couldn’t really throw the ball.

It was then that I discovered the beauty of the sidearm or submarine delivery which used an entirely different set of muscles and put way less stress on my arm.  Furthermore I found out that I was getting some natural movement on the throws that my overhand and ¾ slot pitches never enjoyed.  I even deluded myself into thinking I had a curveball.  That would have been a great thing had I been a pitcher, but at the time I was the team’s starting third baseman.

As I grew up I often wondered why more pitchers didn’t embrace this delivery both for the far less stress it placed on the arm and for the quirkiness of it that could confound batters.  Sure, there were successful knuckleball pitchers like Hoyt Wilhelm, the Neikro brothers, Charlie Hough and later R.A. Dickey, but that particular pitch was unpredictable and often resulted in alarmingly high walk totals.

However, when the Mets found Jeff Innis to work from their bullpen, I was enthralled.  Here was a major league pitcher (on my favorite team, no less) able to deliver 7 years of quality relief pitching, appearing in as many as 76 games per season, and ending his career with a 3.05 ERA.  He never racked up a lot of strikeouts and did walk a few more than would have been desirable, but what he was able to do was keep hitters off-stride resulting in a very low BAA and a WHIP most years in the 1.100 range.  He said, “My favorite part was watching righties swing and miss my side arm curve...They usually didn't come close to hitting it. I also enjoyed it when the hitter would ask the ump to check the ball on my sinker because he thought I was doctoring it... ultimate compliment...”

Another Mets hurler who had great success with the drop-down delivery was Terry Leach.  About his favorite part of pitching that way, he said, “I enjoyed being able to get big hitters out, MVP and Hall of Fame players out pretty easily. Enjoyed how good that felt! When things were going good everything just felt so effortless.”

Later I remember the Mets bringing in a little-known pitcher by the name of Chad Bradford whose submarine delivery was even more extreme.  During his single season in New York he delivered a 2.90 ERA with a 4-2 record and a WHIP of 1.161.  Once again we saw success from a sidewinder.

The last true sidearm hurler I recall seeing in orange and blue was Joe Smith.  He came up as a rookie and had two successful years in which he appeared in 136 games and delivering a 3.50 ERA, though he was a bit wilder than his contemporaries when he was first starting his career.  He improved and now sports a 3.02 ERA for his thus far 12-year career.

One of the best-known sidearmers during the 1970s and 1980s was the Pirates’ reliever Kent Tekulve.   Like many funky-delivery pitchers, he started somewhat late as a rookie at age 27 but managed to pitch in the majors until age 42, amassing 184 saves and a career ERA of 2.85.  In an interview he was asked how he came using this style of pitching:

“I was always tall and skinny, when I was younger it just felt natural to throw sidearm. With my long arms and long legs, it was just natural to use that leverage. In AA, there was a scout for Pirates who came up to me and said you need to get good movement that's in the strike zone. Was getting good movement but was going out of the strike zone. I actually tried raising my arm angle and it was terrible. I was 81mph and flat. I remembered watching Ted Abernathy who was a submarine pitcher in the Majors at the time and got my thinking. I started fooling around in the outfield with it. It took a couple of years to figure it out, especially the breaking ball.”

Studies have shown that the sidearm pitcher is much less prone to rotator cuff problems than the more traditional hurler due to the reduced incidents of hyperabduction.  Furthermore traditional pitchers who through with their arm above shoulder height tend to create the illusion of a rising fastball which is created by the backward rotation of the ball.  Sidearmers, by contrast, have a forward rotation which lends to a natural sink.  That is one primary reason sidewinders are often cast as relievers during late game situations in which a home run could be devastating. 

It kind of makes you wonder why they are the exception rather than the norm.  In Japan the majority of pitchers use a sidearm delivery at least part of the time.  Perhaps it’s the old macho thing about wanting to blow a fastball by someone.  Or maybe it’s the fact that the seeming underhand delivery is associated more with softball than with baseball and it’s not considered “manly”.  Hey, I’m for whatever works. 

Mack - Position By Position Analysis: 2B

Good morning.

We move on to second base. Remember… I project the following players at these levels.

AAA Syracuse

          Ty Kelly (also plays 3B)              ,259/.348/.416/764   8-HR

          Luis Guillorme (also plays SS)    .304/.380/.417/797   3-HR

          Levi Michael (also plays SS)      

                    AAA (9 at bats)                 .333/.400/.333/733     0-HR
                    AA (387 at bats)               .305/.365/.470/833     2-HR 

AA Binghamton

          Oliver Pascual 

                    AA (25 at bats)                .280/.280/.320/600   0-HR

                   (3-team 2018 118-AB)    .195/.208/.229/437  0-HR

          Luis Carpio (also plays SS)

                   AA (4-at bats):                .250/.400/.250/650    0-HR

                   A+ (389-AB):                   .219/.291/.364/657    12-HR

          Josh Allen    (153 at-bats):        .248/.327/.366/693    2-HR

          Andrew Ely: (179 at bats):        .162/.296/.229/525    1-HR  

          J.J. Franco (also plays SS and 3B)

                  A+  (81 at-bats):                 .296/.374/.333/707    0-HR
                  AA  ( 50 at-bats):                .120/.279/.160/439    0-HR      

A+ St. Lucie

          Blake Tiberi

                   A (296 at bats):              .265/.379/.356/735    4-HR

                   A+ (95 at bats):               .168/.210/.274/484    1-HR

A Savannah

          Carlos Cortes

                   Low-A:                           .264/.338/.382/720    4-HR

Low-A Brooklyn

          Luis Santana

                   Rookie/K-Port (204-AB):  .348/.446/.471/917    4-HR  

                       

          Angel Manzanarez

                   Brooklyn (73-AB):           .274/.341/.329/670    0-HR

          Dylan Tice            

                   Brooklyn (44-AB):           .295/.436/.318/755    0-HR

Rookie Kingsport

          Wilmer Reyes

                   GCL (119-AB):                 .269/.287/.420/707    3-HR

                   St. Lucie (13-AB):            .231/.231/.462/693    1-HR

                   Kingsport (8-AB):            .000/.000/.000/000    0-HR

          Sebastian Espino

                   GCL (150-AB):                 .267/.333/.367/700    0-HR

GCL

          Felix Valerio

                   DSL (263-AB):                 .319/.400/.433/843   3-HR

Conclusion

1.    It seems that we have a great second baseman (Jeff McNeil) in Queens.

2.    Jeff will turn 27 during the first week of next season. Baseball hasn’t been kind to infielders that turn 30, so, for now, second base seems locked down through the 2021 season.

3.    Or is it third base that becomes locked down as soon super prospect SS Andres Gimenez comes to Queens? Amed Rosario is a much better fielder than McNeil and woulnd (IMO) serve the team better as a middle fielder. This would move Jeff to third.

4.    Either way, we won’t need a new second baseman for a while.

5.    Past that, we have one prospect (Guillorme) that is getting squeezed out the equation, and three more (Cortes, Santana, Valerio) that show promise.

6.    I’m especially keeping one eye on Valerio now that he’s coming stateside.

Rating:  A 

Mets Winter Stats –

1B Joey Terdoslavich  LIDOM   27-AB .370/.414/.481/895         0-HR

OF Desmond Lindsay    AFL     11-AB   .364/.417/1.000/1.417   2-HR 

OF Wuillmer Becerra  LVBP   20-AB     .350/.350/.350/700         0-HR     

        

1B Peter Alonso     AFL     36-AB             .306/.390/.611, 1.001      3-HR

OF Jhoan Urena     LIDOM      6-AB       .167/.3.75/.167/542        0-HR 

1B Dominic Smith    LIDOM    25-AB    .160/.222/.200/422         0-HR

SS Andres Gimenez  AFL    17-AB          .118/.286/.353/639         1-HR

C Ali Sanchez          AFL     8-AB              .000/.200/.000/200         0-HR

SS Luis Carpio         LVBP  1-AB             .000/.000/.000/000         0-HR

OF John Mora         LIDOM   1-AB          .000/.000/.000/000         0-HR

C Juan Uriarte        LMP      1-AB           .000/.500/.000/500         0-HR

RP Stephen Negosek        AFL                 3.2-IP             3-K                  0.00/0.82

SP Nabil Crismatt              LIDOM          4-IP                1-K                  2.25/1.00

RP Matt Blackham           AFL                 3.1-IP             2-K                  2.70/1.80

RP Tim Peterson                LIDOM          4.1-IP             9-K                  4.15/1.15

RP Joe Zanghi                     AFL                 4-IP                3-K                  4.50/1.25

RP Gerson Bautista          AFL                 5-IP                2-K                  5.40/1.60

?? Jenrry Mejia                  LIDOM          3-IP                1-K                  6.00/1.67

RP Yeizo Campos               LVBP              2-IP                1-K                  13.50/2.50

Reese Kaplan -- The Little Engines That Couldn't

We all know the story of the Little Engine That Could – “I think I can, I think I can” – until finally it makes it up and over the hill when the bigger and more powerful engines refused to even try.  When that little red engine crested that hill it then sang out, “I thought I could, I thought I could” which has become a tale inspiring the value of hard work, determination and effort against all odds.

When the post-season began there were a few Little Engines That Could , including the quickly eliminated Oakland A’s and the just deposed Milwaukee Brewers.  Considering that the Mets have interviewed the Brewers’ executive Doug Melvin, many people were watching fairly closely.  Some felt that success by the upstart Beer Town faithful would send a message to the Mets that it is possible to come out on top without breaking the bank. 

Of course, reality smacked the Brewers and others across the face badly when the Los Angeles Dodgers managed to win 5-1 over Milwaukee.  That triumph, combined with the Boston Red Sox championship in the junior circuit underscored the lesson many Mets fans have been shouting from the rooftops for the past decade or more – “It takes money to make money!” 

A quick perusal of the MLB payrolls you discover that the Red Sox actually did have the highest payroll in baseball.  They are now being matched up against the Los Angeles Dodgers who come in not far behind at number three.  (For reference, down at number 12 with a number of ill-advised contracts are the New York Mets). 

Now bringing up the rear in payroll were the aforementioned Oakland A’s at 28^th and the Milwaukee Brewers at 22^nd.  What does that tell you?  Well, to me it suggests that if you spend intelligently, you can get into the post-season.  It also suggests if you spend appropriately for the market and relative to the competition you can also reach the post season. 

Personally, as much as I’d like to see the payroll increased through the additions of people like Manny Machado and Craig Kimbrel and Yasmani Grandal, the likelihood of the Mets forking over another $30 million plus $18 million plus $14 million – a total per year of $62 million in additional payroll – is about as likely as the Wilpons deciding to sell the team.  It’s not happening.

Therefore, I put my hopes on the other direction – spending more intelligently, building a young core that can replicate success for several years.  I don’t want to see more over-30 players brought in with long injury histories or simply scheduled for their inevitable decline.  You wind up paying for what they did rather than what they will do. 

The last administration was loathe to find and offer opportunities to young position players.  They were seemingly obsessed with wild, hard throwing relievers.  Hopefully they will use more than veteran free agency to try to reinforce the roster.  As Oakland and Milwaukee showed, it’s possible to succeed without breaking the bank.  Once you are back in the wins column, then you can push for more spending. 

From The Desk...

Good morning.

An abbreviated report this morning due to travelling issues.

How Do You Feel About This Ball  Down the Middle? –

This is kind of a form of the automated-strike-zone question. Four and a half years ago, I asked the audience how it felt about pitch-framing. To my surprise, 61% of respondents said they like that framing is a skill that matters. I’d assumed back then that the FanGraphs readers would’ve been all aboard the automation train. This is like an updated version of the same poll, to see if opinions have shifted. But this is also narrowly about a specific kind of bad pitch-framing. It’s about bad pitch-framing that occurs as a consequence of mixed signals. In your ideal game of baseball, should the Red Sox be penalized for miscommunication, or is the miscommunication irrelevant given that the actual pitch thrown was a good breaking ball over the plate?

Mack – If I was a pitching coach of a lower level pipeline team, I would try to emphasis to my pitchers that their main goal is to throw a pitch that starts out down the middle of the plate but doesn’t wind up there. THEY are the unhittable pitchers.

Baseball America (behind firewall) on Ronny Mauricio –

Mauricio whips the barrel through the zone with a loose, easy swing from both sides of the plate, keeping his long arms inside the ball well to make frequent contact with impact. Mauricio already shows the ability to hammer the ball from both sides of the plate, and with plenty more room to fill out, he could develop plus or better future power.

Mack – They had him as the 2^nd most talented player in the GCL League. When was the last time we had the 2^nd anything in the pipeline.

This kid has a long way to go but you do have to appreciate what he has done already.

Reese Kaplan -- Why Would a GM Want the Mets?

I have long cultivated a well-deserved reputation for being the Debbie Downer of this site, always looking at the negative side of things.  Part of it is simple personality type and part of it is my professional training.  

Optimists are people who continually go through life expecting the best will always happen.  Pessimists always anticipate the worst.  Frankly, I’d rather be in the latter camp and be continually pleasantly surprised when I’m wrong than to go through life with one disappointment after another.

Consequently, when I read Mack and others make the assertion that no one in his or her right mind would want to take the Mets GM job as evidenced by executives like Thad Levine, Ben Cherington, Josh Byrnes and now Mike Chernoff refusing to even sit for interviews, well, there’s some validity to what is being asked. 

So let me try to exercise those seldom-used optimistic muscles and think why someone would want the job as GM of the Mets:

Starting Rotation

Led by Cy Young Award frontrunner Jacob deGrom, then Cy Young Award future contender Noah Syndergaard, Comeback Player of the Year possibility Zack Wheeler and the when healthy often unhittable Steven Matz, that core is going to help keep the team in pretty much every game.  Behind them you have Jason Vargas who showed flashes later in the year, Seth Lugo and other reinforcements in the minors on their way up. 

Young Offensive Core

Brandon Nimmo was in the discussion for a reserve role on the All Star game this year after beginning the season in the minors.  Michael Conforto has already been an All-Star.  Jeff McNeil picked right up where he’d been in AA and AAA when he got to the majors, finishing his rookie campaign with a .329 batting average.  Amed Rosario really turned in on in the last 1/3 of the season, showing his speed, some power and becoming someone feared in the batter’s box. Soon to join them will be pounding Pete Alonso, he of the 36 HRs and 119 RBIs split between AA and AAA last season.  He's doing everything in the Arizona Fall League to show that was not merely an aberration.  Behind him you have Andres Giminez who should start the year where he left off in AA and be on a fast track to Queens.  

Veteran Support

I’m not here to argue right now the merits of having signed both Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce to multi-year contracts last off-season.  What’s done is done.  However, what can happen if they remain healthy is a return to All-Star form which would help support the burgeoning young core who may know how to swing the bat and field their position but not really know the nuances of the game itself.  No one can forget Frazier’s variation of the hidden ball trick on a diving “catch” of a foul ball.  They don’t teach that in the Spalding guides on how the game is played. 

The Honeymoon Period

While the Wilpons are both notoriously meddlesome and dysfunctional, the fact is that once someone is hired they have greater latitude up front about making changes than they might have down the road.  If those changes work, that might extend the honeymoon.  A prospective GM might relish the opportunity to bolster the bullpen and find a solution for behind the plate that the club has pretty much lacked since the days of Mike Piazza.  With those pieces in place, there’s no reason this team can’t contend quickly.

The First Gig

Everyone has to start somewhere, and for folks who have worked their way up the ranks with a single team (like Chaim Bloom of the Rays) or someone who has bounced around between proven winning organizations like the Yankees and Dodgers (as Kim Ng has done), the brass ring they’re all seeking to grab is the full GM title.  Even veterans like Gary LaRocque of the Cardinals who is approaching his golden years baseball-wise has not yet had that chance (and word came out yesterday he won't this time, either).  Whether it’s the title itself, the challenge or the fulfillment of a dream, no matter if it was the Mets, the Cleveland Browns or the Los Angeles Clippers, someone is going to want to be in charge (or as much in charge as Jeffy will allow). 

Final Thoughts

While there’s certainly something to be said for experience, it’s really a two-way street.  Just because someone has been doing a job for a long time doesn’t necessarily mean he/she has been doing it well.  When word filtered out that Dave Littlefield most recently of Pittsburgh was up for consideration I got bad Terry Collins flashbacks of someone who’s been around the game a long time but was unable to win anything.  Dan Duquette of the Orioles would be another of that ilk. The Mets went in an unexpected direction last year when it came time to choose a new field manager with Mickey Callaway.  Yes, there were growing pains for sure, but by the end of the year the team was hitting on most cylinders.  I’m hoping they take another chance on someone with potential rather than proven mediocrity.