Tom Brennan - Repost: 2008-2017 Mets Drafts Results Analysis Article

Mack's Mets reader Bill Metsiac asked a question about Mets' management's level of interest/disinterest in drafting hitters.  

I recalled having done this article by me from a while back synopsizing an entire series in which I looked at drafts over a 10 year period, 2008-17, and thought that would be a neat thing to re-post, so here it is:

Tom Brennan - RECAP AND CONCLUSIONS

ON MY 2008-17 DRAFT ARTICLES SERIES

Well, folks, I hope ya caught my eight articles on the Mets’ drafts of 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and 2015-17, even half as much as I enjoyed writing them all.

In each article, I've been repeating my philosophy for the first 10 rounds: 

When in doubt, draft power hitters and power pitchers.  

To recap my series, to see the forest for the trees, and any other appropriate cliche, how have the Mets done over the past 10 years in drafting in the key first 10 rounds?  

LET ME REPEAT: This is not a critique on how the drafted players have performed, but rather a critique of how the METS have done in drafting. Where they got picked was all on the Mets' selection team, not the players.

I will focus on it in two multi-season subsets:

2008-14, a period where by now most draftees’ career paths are pretty well defined.  I name names.

2015-17, a period when guys are still climbing and the chances for a promising guy to stall out, or for a sputtering guy to break out, are still significant.  So my observations on the classes of 2015-17 will be presented from a different, more general perspective.

I'll start with 2015-17 hitters drafted in the top 10 rounds of the drafts:

2017 top 10 draft round hitters: only 3 bats drafted in the first 10 – Mark Vientos (2^nd round), Quinn Brodey (3^rd round), and Matt Winaker (5^th round) – combined, in 490 at bats, they hit .257, 23 doubles, 3 triples, 7 HRs, 64 RBIs, 47 BB, 116 Ks.  The 17 year old Vientos had half of those extra base hits in just 174 of those 490 at bats.  Very early to judge, and maybe 2018 will tell a different tale, but Brodey and Winaker certainly have failed to demonstrate the power bats I’d like to see in the early rounds (11 doubles, 3 HRs in 316 at bats).

2016 top 10 round hitters: Pete Alonso was a GREAT selection. The 4 other guys (draft round noted) – Blake Tiberi (3), Michael Paez (4), Colby Woodmansee (5), and Gene Cone (10) – combined, 1804 ABs, .223, 83 doubles, 8 triples, 18 homers, 184 RBIs, 212 BBs, 426 Ks.    Below that fine Pete Alonzo (#64 overall) pick, the other 4 top 10 round guys are hitting poorly, fanning too much, and not generating nearly the kind of power I’d like to see in draftees (a homer about once every 115 plate appearances).

2015 top 10 round hitters: to me, a solid hitters’ draft: Desmond Lindsay (2) injured too much so far for the soon-to-be 21 year old to show his true colors (may 2018 lead to 125 games or more played for him); and David Thompson (4); Pat Mazeika (8); Kevin Kaczmarski (9) – the foursome career-wise have combined for 3,524 ABs: .283, 228 doubles, 27 triples, 69 HRs, 515 RBIs, 403 BBs, 691 Ks.  Those are good numbers; Kaczmarski is light on homers but his 20 triples make up for it a lot.  Good hitters’ draft by the Mets (yes, I can say something is a good job, when it in fact is).

2015-17 pitchers in the top 10: without going into details, I think the Mets drafted pitchers well enough in these rounds (e.g., Peterson, Dunn, Kay), but I do think drafting 7 pitchers in their 2017 top 10 neglected their need to draft quality (power) hitters, so I need to criticize them for that.

2008 -2014 RECAP:

I will group DUDS ("what were they thinking?") Top 10 rounds’ picks by type, and then do the same with DUDES (fine picks, whether sabotaged later by injury or not).

DUD TYPE 1 – drafted in first 10 rounds but failed to sign, which to me is a mortal baseball sin:

Charles Zoyle, C, 5th round, 2008; Damien Magnifico, P, 5th round, 2009, David Buchanan, P, 6^th round 2009, and 2^nd round P Teddy Stankiewicz, 2012  – four unsigned guys, and that’s 4 too many. 

DUD TYPE 2 – weak hitters, little or no power – I count 12 of them:

2009, rounds 8 to 10 - three straight duds: C Jeff Glenn; OF Nick Santomauro; C Taylor Freeman.

2011, 6th round OF Joe Tuschak, and 7th round 1B/3B Cole Frenzel.

2012, 4^th round SS Branden Kaupe, and 9^th round 3B Richie Rodriguez.

2013, 5th round OF Jared King and 9th round OF Pat Biondi.

2014, 3rd round SS Milton Ramos, 6th round, C Tyler Moore, and 9th round 1B Michael Katz (latter had modest pop, but far too many Ks). 

DUD TYPE 3 – weak pitchers with low strikeouts – I count 7 of them:

2008, 10^th round Brian Valenzuela.

2010, 6th round P Greg Peavey and 8th round P Ken McDowell.

2009, 9th round P Alex Panteliodis and 10th round P Matt Budgell.

2012, 5^th round Brandon Welch.

2014, 5th round Josh Prevost.

DUD TYPE 4: hitters picked too high in draft, given their performance; they were OK to be drafted by the Mets, each but should've been several rounds lower due to low average, low power, and/or high Ks. 
I count 3 of them:

2008, 2^nd round OF Javier Rodriguez.

2009, 3rd round IF Robbie Shields.

2013, 4th round IF LJ Mazzilli. 

DUD TYPE 5 – pitchers drafted at least several rounds too early, given high post-draft ERA, low Ks, and/or low velocity.  I count 7 of them:

2008, 7^th round Michael Hebert.

2009, 7th round Darin Gorski.

2011, 3rd round Logan Verrett and 4th round Tyler Pill.

2012, 3^rd round Matt Koch.  

2013, 2nd round Andrew Church and 3rd round Casey Meisner. 

That is a lot of DUD picks.  

33 Top 10 round picks in 7 years. 40%

  

NOW, ON TO THE 2008-14 DUDES I CONSIDERED TO BE GOOD:

DUDE TYPE 1: real major league impact hitters and pitchers – I count ONLY 8 – what they have in common, almost every time?  POWER.

2008, 1^st round 1B Ike Davis.

2009, 2nd round P Steve Matz.

2010, 1^st round P Matt Harvey.

2010, 9^th round P Jake deGrom.

2011, 1^st round OF Brandon Nimmo (should have been a 2nd rounder).

2011, 2nd round P Michael Fulmer.

2011, 10^th round P Paul Sewald.

2014, 1^st round OF Michael Conforto.  

(Lots of injuries, sadly, in that select group). 

DUDE TYPE 2 – hitters and pitchers who have had, or appear to be poised to have, at least a modest major league impact – I count 10:

2008, 3^rd round OF Captain Kirk Nieuwenhuis, 6^th round IF Josh Satin, and 9^th round IF/OF Eric Campbell.

2009, 4th round OF Darrell Ceciliani.

2010, 5th round OF Matt Den Dekker and 10th round P Akeel Morris.

2011, 5th round P Jack Leathersich, and 8^th round IF Danny Muno.

2012, Comp Pick C Kevin Plawecki (hopefully headed to Category 1).

2013, 1^st round 1B Dominic Smith (hopefully headed to Category 1).

(18 guys in DUDE Categories 1 and 2 is far too low over a 7 year stretch.)

DUDE TYPE 3: high round hitters & pitchers who've made the majors but appear to have been drafted several rounds too high.   I count 2:

2012, 1^st round IF Gavin Cecchini, and 2^nd round Matt Reynolds. Probably should have put Logan Verrett here, too, but so homer-prone, he's a "dud".

DUDE TYPE 4 – power tooled pitchers and hitters who are ascending rapidly - 3 FINE YOUNG DUDES:

2012, 7^th round P Cory Oswalt, and 8^th round C Tomas Nido.

2013, 10^th round IF Luis Guillorme.

DUDE TYPE 5 – hitters and pitchers who might have been impact major leaguers, except for serious injuries: 4 DUDES.

2008, 1^st round IF Reese Havens, comp pick P Brad Holt, and 4^th round OF Sean Ratliff.

2012, 6^th round IF/OF Jayce Boyd (still AAA active; might still make it).

DUDE TYPE 6 – power hitters or power pitchers who were good picks at the round selected, but did not work out or are unlikely to, either at all or in a significant way (i.e., I’d have picked them that round, too) - 11 DUDES IN THIS CATEGORY:

2008, 9^th round pick P Eric Beauliac.

2010, 2nd round C Blake Forsythe, 4th round OF Cory Vaughn, and 7^th round P Jeff Walters.

2011, 2^nd round pick P Cory Mazzoni.

2013, 3rd Round OF Ivan Wilson and 6^th Round OF Champ Stuart (latter a still-active minor leaguer who I currently consider to be a very long shot).

2014, 4^th round IF Eudor Garcia, 7^th round P Brad Wieck (he may still work out as a big leaguer), 8^th round 1B Dash Winningham, and 10^th round P Kelly Secrest (in fairness, Secrest still might have a future MLB pen role).

DUDE TYPE 7 – drafted non-power hitters and non-power pitchers who were nonetheless OK picks at their respective rounds - 2 DUDES:

2013, 7th round 1B Matt Oberste and 8th round P Ricky Knapp.

MAIN OBSERVATION: TOO FEW IMPACT PLAYERS DRAFTED. 

I LIKED JUST 50-60% OF TOP 10 ROUND DRAFT SELECTIONS SPANNING THE LAST 10 YEARS.

THAT'S IT - THE METS CAN DO BETTER THAN 50-60%.
  

MOST PEOPLE KNOW THAT THEY MOSTLY DRAFT WEAKLY.  

THIS ARTICLE BREAKS DOWN WHY THAT'S SO:

TOO LIGHT ON POWER.

Of the players who have not become high impact major leaguers, some tragic injuries prevented more impact players from reaching the MLB, but there have simply been too many bad and mediocre DUD picks.  With more of a predisposition to drafting power bats and power arms, the chances of generating more high impact major leaguers would almost have to increase.

Thus ends this long recap article, but if you were wondering on my logic for putting each of the above players listed in the above respective assigned categories, I include below all of my prior 8 articles for the 2008 through 2017 draft years - please don't mind the poor spacing of text that follows.

Lastly:

Those who read Macks Mets articles? 
Definitely in Dude Category, NOT DUDS.

TEXT OF 8 PRIOR ARTICLES IN THIS SERIES:

Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2008

The Mets have over many years not drafted enough power pitchers and power hitters in the earlier (say, first 10) rounds of the annual draft.

I think the Mets drafted reasonably well that season, but some bizarre and serious injuries made it work out not so well long term.  

Let me start first with 2008's Top 10 Round DUDS (whom I define as "what were they thinking" picks), followed by the good DUDES (or those destined to be good until injured) and maybe some useful observations can be made and conclusions drawn.

DUDS

JAVIER RODRIGUEZ, OF, 2ND ROUND, # 68 OVERALL: never even made it out of rookie ball (well, not true, he did get under 100 at bats in Savannah), and he was the 68th overall pick - now THAT is a dud!  Actually, his hitting, while not earthshaking, would have made him one of this year's best rookie ball hitters.  JR got up 769 times, fanned too much (171 times), and hit .248/.315/.388. 

He produced 50 doubles and 15 homers, not bad, but still clearly underperformed for a #68 overall pick.  He was listed at 6'2", 165, kind of skinny, yet was not a speedster, with just 8 of 14 steals.  Poor pick at that level.

CHARLES Z. ZOYLE, C, 5TH ROUND, # 164: apparently never played pro baseball - and was drafted in the 5th round - DUD!

MICHAEL HEBERT, P, 7TH ROUND, # 180 - he was distinctly mediocre, got to Savannah briefly, but threw just 166 innings over 4 seasons.  12-14, 3.85, 1.40 WHIP, 146 Ks.  Not terrible, but not making it at least to St Lucie from the 7th round renders you a DUD pick. 

BRIAN VALENZUELA, P, 10TH ROUND: a DUD pick, the lefty was listed at just 5'10, 155, and went 2-10, 6.09 in 68 rookie ball innings.  

Advice: avoid soft tossing midgets until at least the 30th round.  Having the last name Valenzuela does not make you Fernando.

DUDES

Several real dudes in the top 10, but the unfolding was akin to a Shakespeare tragedy.  Macbeth agrees with me.

IKE DAVIS, 1B, 1ST ROUND, # 18 OVERALL: Ike was a good selection, but a sad tale indeed.  It took the power hitter something like 300 plate appearances to record his first minor league homer, and to me smelled like a possible bust.  In his first full minor league season, he was very impressive, and after a very short stint in AAA in 2010, up he came.  

Ike had a highly impressive rookie season with the Mets in 2010, and got off to a scorching start in 2011, seemingly the Mets' next star until the oft-injured David Wright stepped on his foot on a play by the mound, after which Ike was improperly treated medically.  36 games was it for Ike in 2011.  In 2012, Ike got off to an excruciatingly prolonged bad start, but then hit homers in huge bunches in the season's 2nd half, and it looked like our star 1B was back.

He wasn't back - he mimicked his horrendous 2012 start in 2013, and eventually got demoted.  The Duda vs. Ike debate erupted in earnest that spring, eventually Ike got traded, and he hit marginally and ended up in the minors, and appears he may try his hand at pitching now.  A baffling one, but certainly a good pick.  Always leaving one to wonder: what if David Wright HADN'T stepped on Ike's foot (ankle)?

REESE HAVENS, IF, 1ST ROUND, # 22 OVERALL: should really be in the DUD column, but it was a serious injury that did him in.  After his Brooklyn debut in 2008, he hit well in A ball in 2009, with pop.  Hopes were rising.  

In 2010, he got off hot: .312/.386/.592 in 32 games, mostly in AA - sure looked like a fine pick to that point, with people wondering how long it would take for him to join David Wright as a star in the Mets IF - then the doggone Mets Jinx hit him, too...he suddenly had bad rib cage issues, eventually needing rib-shortening surgery, playing only 193 games from May 2010 until his career ended in 2013 - sounds eerily reminiscent of David Wright.  If no injury, he looked like Ike did - a fine pick.  Injuries suck.

BRAD HOLT, P, COMP PICK, # 33 OVERALL:  Another Mets Jinx dude.  

An excellent pick, he dominated big time in Brooklyn in his debut season.  The Mets jumped him to St Lucie in 2009; he got shelled in his first game, but in his next 9 outings, he was outstanding: 46 IP, just 8 earned runs and 29 hits, and 52 Ks...fans began to drool - then of course big time arm problems hit him and he was just never anywhere near the same again, with his career ending in 2012.  Another sad teaser tale for hungry Mets fans. 

KIRK NIEUWENHUIS, OF, 3RD ROUND, # 100:  Captain Kirk conceptually was another fine Mets pick who never quite panned out due to his inability to curtail his strikeouts.  Good size, strong, good speed...hole in bat.  Worst Mets player to ever hit 3 homers in a game.  Mets tried to draft power and speed, it almost worked out, but those strikeouts could never be reduced.

SEAN RATLIFF, OF, 4TH ROUND, # 134:  Another Mets Jinx victim!!!  A promising career cut short when he got nailed in the eye while in the on deck circle.  He also fanned a bit too much, but in 2010, he played great in A and AA, hitting .298/.353/.505 in 130 games.  He later briefly tried a comeback, but was unable to proceed.

Early on, with Davis, Havens, Holt, Kirk and Ratliff all looking so promising, this in many Mets fans' eyes had to be sizing up to be one of their best drafts ever - then gosh, the injuries were stunning and career-changing. Injury-wise, Davis, Havens, Holt, and Ratliff remind me of the Mets' injury-ravaged 2017 season.  

JOSH SATIN ROUND 6, ERIC CAMPBELL IN ROUND 9: Certainly not duds, but I would have tried to draft guys with more power.  Neither had speed nor power.

ERIC BEAULAC, P, 9TH ROUND:  Eric was in fact the type of guy I like to see drafted, a hard thrower who compiled 52 starts and 65 relief appearances over 6 seasons and was 21-21, 3.40 with a K per inning, including a few outings in AAA.  

His control issues appear to have been his undoing, averaging almost 5 walks per 9 IP.  He also did not pitch a lot those last 3 years, indicative of probable health issues.  Nice try here by the Mets.  Didn't pan out.

Below the top 10, only Colin McHugh turned out to be any good. Rounds 11-50 were filled with a bunch of no-names, with my favorite being Forrest Gump's brother Brian Gump in the 46th round.  That's all I have to say about that, and about 2008's Mets draft, for that matter.

Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2009

In this article series I am been looking at draft DUDS (guys who you have to wonder "whatever were the Mets thinking" when they drafted them) and draft DUDES (guys who either made it in style to the big leagues or were fine picks waylaid by injuries).

I recently did an article about how the heck the Mets could have passed on drafting Paul Goldschmidt in 2009, in which I touched on some of the Mets Top 10 rounds' draft picks.  

Here's an expand recap of what I wrote then.

If you just ate, reading this may get you nauseous, so proceed with caution:

1st round - lost the pick - happens. Coulda been Mike Trout.  Naturally, we did not have that pick.

2nd round - Steve Matz - good pick; sure he's had injuries, but you can't assume injuries, so you pick him again.  DUDE.

3rd round - IF Robbie Shields: low power mediocrity.  DUD. Complete Dud.  What were they thinking? .243/.315/.351 in his minor league career in nearly 400 games (none above A ball) is not 3rd round stuff, and lacks the power one has to expect from a 3rd round hitter with only decent speed.

4th round - Darrell Ceciliani - a decent enough 4th round pick - if Goldschmidt was not available.  Which he was, which makes this pick not so decent.  DC has fine speed, negated by a persistently bad hammy or two, and decent power, but only .190 in 100 major league at bats with 39 Ks - not a DUD, but also not really a DUDE.

5th round - P Damien Magnifico - did not sign with the Mets: his post-Mets career in MLB is under 4 IP - not a hard thrower.  Not a DUD, not a DUDE if they signed him, but you fail to sign the guy???  That is a DUD result, bro'.

6th round - P David Buchanan - did not sign with the Mets - signed with Phils instead in 2010; 8-17, 5.01 in the majors, and not a power K-type pitcher.  Not a DUD, not a DUDE if they signed him, but you fail to sign the guy?  That is a DUD result, bro'.  (Didn't I just say that?)

7th round - Darin Gorski, the far-too-soft tossing lefty to ever realistically have a shot to make the majors.  DUD....draft power arms now, smile at the DUDE you picked later.

ROUNDS 8 THRU 10?

C JEFF GLENN (made it to AAA, .218 hitter);

OF NICK SANTOMAURO (only .191 above rookie ball); and

C TAYLOR FREEMAN (.207 in rookie ball).

I dunno about you - those 3 were super DUDS.  

Bad drafting in the first 10 rounds, in my humble opinion.

Below the Top 10 draft rounds?  Absolutely nothing.  

Bad work there - usually someone will make it from those rounds, even marginally.

Overall draft score? D, and that is only because we got Matz.

Question of the day: will the Mets never learn?   Draft power arms and bats, then sit back and smile.

This was a very, very bad draft.  No other way to put it.

Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2010

As we all intuitively know, there is a moderately strong correlation between the chances of big league success that a drafted player will have in terms of a major league career, and what round he is drafted in.  The higher the round, generally the better the chances.

I have in recent months broached an approach that which I think is obvious...try to draft power bats and then power pitchers.  Of course, power bats are only attractive if the hitters' contact rates are not unacceptable.

Who were the DUDS in rounds 1 through 10 in 2010?  Why did they fail?

2nd round catcher BLAKE FORSYTHE - the man had some power but fanned way too much.  .226/.313/.378, with 456 Ks in 1.374 career ABs.  In fairness, a reasonably decent pick, a good power guy who did not hit enough to work out.  Can't win 'em all.

4th round OF CORY VAUGHN - the Mets hoped for lightning in a family bottle here in drafting the son of high-powered former major leaguer Greg Vaughn and the nephew of "lethal-before-he-became-a-Met" Mo Vaughn. (My tablet changed the spelling from Mo to No, so it is smart after all).

That family thing, which seems to work so well for so many teams (ask Pittsburgh about Barry Bonds, Seattle about Griffey Jr), only has worked in the Mets drafting Todd Hundley (and Preston Wilson, but he never suited up for the Mets).

Cory had a nice first season for the Brooklyn Cyclones, but hit just .210 in both of his last 2 seasons in AA and AAA.  He turned out to be a dud but was not that bad, so he was not a terrible pick.  Decent power, fine speed, struck out a lot but not in the extreme...just not good enough.

5th round OF MATT DEN DEKKER: the Mets gambled that this fine defensive and quick-footed CF could fix his strikeout problem.  He did make the majors and in 350 at bats, hit .234, but in recent years in AAA, has regressed. AAAA.

His 93 games in Vegas in 2014 were his pinnacle, where it all seemed to be coming together for Matt, when he hit .334/.407/.540, and my hopes for him soared - but it was more of a flash in the pan than anything else.  Essentially, he has been a borderline MLB 5th OF, not terrible for a #5 round pick, but still mostly a Dud pick. Why?

Borderline 5th OFs are abundantly available; quality MLB OFs are a scarcer commodity.

6th round RHSP GREG PEAVEY - an all-too typical Mets pitching pick...mediocre...his minor league final numbers were 45-39, 4.60 ERA, 60 homers allowed, and only 466 Ks in 667 P.  Almost as good as a Logan Verrett, who was not good.  Hint to the Mets: draft power arms, not low velocity Peaveys type, who usually stall out in the high minors.

8th round KENNETH MCDOWELL - he won three quarters of his decisions and had a career ERA of 2.25.  So what is the problem?  He only threw 20 minor league innings, fanned just 11, going 3-1 in his career and only making it as far as Kingsport.  The Mets would have been better off drafting Malcolm McDowell or Roddy McDowell (above).

Of course, there were DUDES (pictured above) and not just DUDS in the 2010 top 10 Mets' draft picks. 

In the 9th and 10th rounds, they drafted a former SS you may have heard of named Jake deGrom, a fine fireballer who hits better than many of the bats they've drafted over the years, and a now-24 year old Akeel Morris, who appears like he may be a decent pen arm for the Braves.  

They also drafted a Dark Knight in the first round named Matt Harvey, and Jeff Walters in the 7th round, who looked like a promising reliever and good 7th round selection until Tommy John paid him a visit, after which he was never the same.  

In 2013, Walters was stellar at 4-3, 2.09 with 38 of 42 saves in AA - then POOF went his career, as happens to pitchers so frequently, due to a TJS injury.

A terrible draft below round # 10; only useful pieces were Eric Goeddel (24th round) and Josh Edgin (30th round).

Overall, 2010's top 10 picks had its share of DUDS, sure, but they mostly got it right...going with power pitching and power hitting and/or speedy position players.  Avoid the Peavey and McDowell  softy pitcher types and it might have been a great draft in those rounds.

Tom Brennan: DRAFT DUDS - 2011

Continuing on with my DRAFT DUDS series, looking for patterns in why the Mets currently have a minor league system envied by pretty much no one except - give me a minute here, will ya?

OK, let me get back to you on that...just not a good system right now.

Who in the 2011 draft's Mets top 10 picks were DUDS, and which were DUDES (that is, guys who aren't duds, basically):

2nd round RHP Cory Mazzoni has been a disappointment, but not quite a dud.  But he is more dud than dude, so for this article, DUD.

Simply, his minor league numbers have been quite solid - but the majors?  Oh, boy.  2017 was a doozie, in which in rehab stints and AAA he threw 30 innings, allowed 2 earned runs, walked 3, and fanned 48.  Sweet.  Then gets a September call up and gets obliterated: 8 innings, 17 hits, 16 runs.  Matt Harvey was in shock that someone could be worse than him! 

Cory's lifetime in the majors has sure been productive, for his opponents, that is: 16.2 IP, 40 hits, 38 runs, 4 walks, just 12 Ks.  Jekyll and Hyde BP numbers on steroids.  He no longer fills up at BP gas stations, hoping something will change.  He's no longer a Met organization guy, so enough on him.  Except to say it seemed like an OK pick that just did not work out.

3rd round RHP Logan Verrett: another guy who is more dud than dude, given his being the 101st overall pick.

Extremely HR prone, allowing a remarkable (for the minors) home run every 9 innings, he has gone 6-10 in 150 major league innings with 114 Ks and a homer every 6 innings.  

He was solid enough with the Mets in 2016 over 14 appearances and 4 starts, and surprisingly (to me, at least) Verrett had a brilliant April 2016 (3-0, including back to back 6 shutout inning efforts and no HRs and just 1 earned run in 17 innings), but he lost his last 8 decisions in 2016 as his ERA ballooned to 5.20, and as he allowed an unsurprising 16 HRs over his last 74 innings.  He went 2-0 in limited action in 2017 with the Orioles.   Not a flamethrower, which is largely why he is homer prone, a career-limiting defect, and which is why, despite his MLB experience, he is a DUD.

4th round RHP Tyler Pill: yet another guy who is more dud than dude because of low velocity.  He has largely been solid up to AA, but in AAA, he has gone 5-7, 5.57 in 195 innings.  Getting a surprising opportunity in early 2017 due to his good AAA pitching this season and a slew of Mets pitching injuries, Pill failed to capitalize, going 0-3, 5.22 in 20+ innings.  Nice bat, but if I were drafting in the 4th round, I would (not to sound repetitious) have taken a power arm. 

5th round LHRP Jack Leathersich - to me, he was a good pick, a DUDE: wild, lots and lots of Ks, and just when he was showing he might be a Mets bullpen guy, he blows his arm out and misses a season plus.  Nonetheless, the Cubs took him in Rule 5, figuring he'd be rehabbing most of the year and thus not tie up a spot all season on their 25 man roster.  

This season, he was lethal in AAA for the last few months, got traded to Pittsburgh and was impressive in relief in September.  So, for a 5th rounder, it has been a winding road, but I put him as slightly more dude than dud.  I'd take him back if I were Sandy.  John Travolta, though, says NAH!

6th round OF Joe Tuschak - DUD, DUD, DUD.  Played in 305 minor league games and hit a paltry .218/.298/.311.  Power bat?  Nope.  Bad pick.

7th round 1B/3B Cole Frenzel - the Mets did all right once with a 7th round first base pick, but not this time...he hit .237/.324/.345, with just 16 homers in 299 games.  Not enough power, so it was a DUD pick.  I just wonder if Frenzel knows Denzel, then I'd really like the pick instead.

9th pick RHP Alex Panteliodis - why they picked him is all Greek to me.  The lefty had a 1.51 career WHIP and just 189 Ks in 300 IP, clearly far from major league caliber stuff - a wasted DUD pick, when they instead should have grabbed a power arm.  He was minor league filler, a waste of a 9th pick.  But they made Zorba the Greek very happy.  OPA!!

10th rounder P Matt Budgell - DUD - a very short career, spanning 36 IP, with just 26 Ks in rookie ball - a power arm, again, would have been better.  No available power arms? Then pick a power bat.

This draft was nonetheless quite interesting for the Metsies, as Brandon Nimmo has not yet, but may still one day, prove to be the real deal and worthy of being a first round pick; 2nd rounder Michael Fulmer has been special ever since the Mets traded him; Danny Muno has performed as expected for an 8th round pick, even if his was not a dazzling pick; picks 13, 14, and 15 were nice, too, as the Mets nabbed Rob Gsellman, AAA catcher Xorge Carillo, and an IF with MLB potential in Phil Evans. 

Travis Taijeron was a nice enough power bat pick in round 18, even if his career stalls; John Gant a fine pick for a 20th round pitcher; and Seth Lugo and Chase Bradford being surprisingly good for 34th and 35th round picks.

So, overall, it was a pretty good draft, but sullied by there being 5 DUD pitching picks and 2 DUD hitting picks in the first 10 rounds.  Too many duds due to not drafting power arms and bats whenever and wherever possible.

Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2012

2012's draft to me looked like a DUD, walked like a DUD, and quacked like a DUD.   It deserved a 17 DUD SALUTE.  

A far from ducky draft.

Let's look at the 12 guys they nabbed in Top 10 round -  

7 duds (far too many) and 5 others of modest potential:

DUDS:

Gavin Cecchini IF, pick # 12 round 1 - Cheech seems to lack to skill set to be a successful first-half-of-first-round round caliber - short on the 5 tools.  Perhaps he will still become a decent major leaguer, but...

Matt Reynolds IF, pick # 71 round 2 - Cheech II - need I elaborate?  Why pick low power, low speed CHEECHES?

Teddy Stankiewicz, P, picked # 75 round 2 - how you can pick a guy as high as # 75 and he does not sign with you is bewildering.  He signed the next season, drafted, yes, in the 2nd round, with the Red Sox (prefers the color red, I guess); he has been decidedly mediocre at every level since, and has not fanned a ton of guys (398 in 577 career innings). DUD. Stinky Stanky.

Matt Koch P, picked # 107 round 3 - Stinky Stanky II, also decidedly mediocre at every level since, and has not fanned a ton of guys (319 in 499 career minors innings). 

Branden Kaupe, a very short SS, picked # 140 round 4 - he was also very short in his ability to hit and hit for power - a mere 4 doubles and 6 triples in 600 plate appearances. Bewildering.

Brandon Welch, P picked # 170 round 5 - Stinky Stanky III, except his career spanned only 65 innings in the minors, with 43 Ks.

Richie Rodriguez, 3B, round 9 # 290 pick: classic Mets DUD pick - why draft a 5'9", 170 3B unless he exudes something special?  His .161/.226/.236 line in about 260 rookie ball plate appearances made him Kaupe II.

Then there are the 2012 top 10 round picks that may turn out to not be duds, or were good picks gone bad due to injury:

POTENTIAL DUDES:

Kevin Plawecki, C, pick # 35 Compensation Round A - 

his strong finish in 2017 with the Mets is a happily hopeful sign he may be a competent, frequently playing major league catcher.  Jury still out...

Jayce Boyd, IF/OF, round 6 # 200 - never seen as a power guy, his rib surgery messed up his throwing and hitting for a while.  He hit really well, and with power (.330/.400/.600), in his last 2+ months in AAA in 2017, so my take is if it had not been for his rib/shoulder, he might (hitting-wise) have been another Daniel Murphy. 

If he can't field in a big league caliber manner, though, his potential as a major leaguer is a long shot.

Cory Oswalt, RHSP, picked in round 7 # 230: slowed by injuries prior to 2017, he was stellar in 2017 and may well turn out to be an above-average pick.  Quite possibly a Mets 4/5 type starter as soon as at some point in 2018.

Tomas Nido, C, picked in round 8 # 260: fine defensive catcher, but the bat is still suspect - likely a back up major league catcher, possible starter if the bat can take a leap.

Paul Sewald, RHRP, picked in round 10 # 320: not a flame thrower, but a really fine minor league reliever who took advantage of a slew of injuries to crack the major league glass ceiling in 2017.  Pitched very well the majority of the time, but still managed to go 0-6.  He strikes out a lot of guys without raw firepower, and may still turn out to be a solid-average major league middle reliever.

Did the last 30 rounds of 2012 (11 thru 40) yield any gems?  

No.

Not really...decent or potentially decent major leaguers only appear to include righty reliever Matt Bowman and RHP Chris Flexen and 3 possibles: Logan Taylor, Tim Peterson, and the traded Rob Whalen.

2012 METS DRAFT SUMMARY:  

It is abundantly clear that the Mets did not go into the draft focusing on drafting power bats and power pitching.  

The non-power bats drafted collectively appear to have at best future modest helpfulness at the major league level. Grade D-.

The pitching, almost devoid of power arms, is likely to have at most modest success at the big league level.  Grade C.

I did not, for the sake of full disclosure, try to look at guys that other teams drafted in the same rounds that were available to the Mets - but even without doing that, the Mets sure could have done better by:

Focusing on POWER BATS AND ARMS.  

Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2013

2013 begins to be a time close enough to the draft to find it getting harder to separate busts (DUDS) from solid picks (DUDES).  

The Mott the Hoople guy thinks they're all young DUDES, but I'm of a different opinion and told him he should stick to rock.

Overall, I think 2013 was another weak Mets draft year because not enough toolsy guys were picked.  There were some real DUDS, no overwhelmingly clear DUDES chosen.

DUDS

2ND ROUND ANDREW CHURCH, SP: I have not given up all hope on Church, but his combo in 2017 of weak ERA in A ball coupled with a low strikeout rate has me heavily leaning towards DUD....a 2nd round pick should have more high octane velocity.  One hopes, though, that Church pitches every Sunday.  Let's hope it's not in the church softball game.

3RD ROUND OF IVAN WILSON #76: I was tempted to put this bust of a draft pick in the "dude" pile anyway, as I liked the pick - he had all the tools...except for the tool that would fill in the gaping hole in his bat.  His strikeout rate, as he getting as high as full A ball, was far too high.  

It seemed he had physical talent similarities to Aaron Judge, although unlikely to ever be nearly as good, so hopefully he did not hang up the spikes too soon. But a wash out that early, picked that high?  DUD.

3RD ROUND SP CASEY MEISNER #84: traded in the 2015 pitching prospect fire sale during a strong season, the now 22 year old Meisner then went an awful 1-14 in 2016 and rebounded to a mediocre 10-9 in 2017.  His K rate dropped to under 6 Ks per 9 IP after his promo in mid-season to AA.  

Seems like a possible mediocre future MLB fringe starter, so this pick seems. much more DUD than DUDE right now, given that he was a #84 pick, but he might swing the pendulum towards DUDE in 2018 yet.  Not a hard enough thrower to me to go here in round 3.  Draft flamethrowers in the 3rd round instead, that's my free advice.

4TH ROUND LJ MAZZILLI, IF, 116TH pick: Awful selection. LJ gets a 4 DUD Rating.  Too old at draft time, too mediocre in talent to be picked anywhere in the top 10 rounds....and Cody Bellinger was available.  What would a smart team do when faced with a choice between these two?  We all know what the Dodgers did.  Smart.

5TH ROUND OF JARED KING: Simply put : Bust pick....less ability than Mazzilli, lacked power,  and average speed.  You cannot waste 5th round picks on guys with his talent level. All-too-typical dumb Mets pick, when you should be drafting guys with power in the 5th round, not ones with (if all goes well) a 5th OF ceiling.  DUD.

6TH ROUND OF CHAMP STUART: Worth, IMO, taking a 6th round flyer on this super-fast outfielder, but like Ivan Wilson, this man's prodigious strikeout rate has him looking for all the world like a bust.  He has shown grudging progress year by year, but he appears to be a DUD pick.  

He should still get another year or two to see if the K rate can be normalized, given his speed gift.  Watch Matty Alou tapes, Champ.  Do like Matty Alou do.

9TH ROUND OF PAT BIONDI: Like Champ Stuart, except not as fast, less power, and also a weak hitter.  I would have picked a power hitter, rather than a no-power outfielder, with this pick.  DUD.  Should have been at best a teens pick.

DUDES - not too many, not too convincing:

1ST ROUND PICK, #11 OVERALL, 1B DOMINIC SMITH: tough call right now, but I still think Smitty hits better in 2018 after shedding some weight over the winter and turns into a good MLB 1B.  

Jury, sadly, is still out as to whether this #11 overall pick in the 2013 draft is dud or dude... I will cautiously vote DUDE.

7TH ROUND 1B MATT OBERSTE: a solid player and decent hitter, he seems to have been picked around the right round.  His power has been disappointing for a big guy, and my take is it may well keep him out of the majors.  Still, can't argue with him being a 7th round selection.  Maybe he'll fix the power and make it somehow.

8TH ROUND SP RICKY KNAPP: similar to Oberste, I give Knapp a very cautious DUDE Rating, only because I believe he has performed as one might expect a typical 8th rounder would.  I would have picked a harder thrower with that pick, if at all possible.  He ran headlong into the Vegas Wall in 2017, and his K rate was weak.  Seems like he has a AAAA ceiling, another Tyler Pill type.  Roll the dice and draft power arms.

10TH ROUND IF LUIS GUILLORME: a very solid 10th round pick. The Glove Wizard needs to continue to look for ways to add power and more OBP to make him major league caliber. 2018 will be key for Luis, but it was a smart selection by the Mets, although I have a preference for guys with power, if you haven't caught on yet to my repetition.

Tyler Bashlor

Thankfully, the draft didn't end at round 10 for our Metsies. In the 11th thru 13th round, the Mets picked very well indeed, grabbing fireballing reliever Tyler Bashlor, Tom Brennan utility favorite Jeff McNeil, and big righty Kevin McGowan.  

My only problem with those 3 DUDES?  That they weren't picked during the first 10 rounds by da Mets.  Shoulda been.

I really like all 3 of these picks in 11 through 13.

Even with them, I give the Mets a C- on this draft.  

Poor job overall in drafting, once again. 

Power pitching; power hitting.  There's your formula.

Tom Brennan- DRAFT DUDS 2014

In scanning the Mets drafts' top 10 rounds' selections since 2008, there are DUDS (i.e., puzzling to baffling picks) and DUDES (guys whose picks, given the rounds they were picked in, make the Mets look smart.  

(Please note that when I characterize a player as a dud, it is the Mets who selected him that I am criticizing, not the player, as I believe there had to be better power hitting or power pitching candidates available for draft selection than who they picked).

2014's DUDES LIST - TAKE 5:

First round pick MICHAEL CONFORTO is the authentic article, when healthy.  This pick was a "DUDE" bullseye.  I won't elaborate; if ya don't know about this guy, google him!

4th rounder EUDOR GARCIA looked good as a potentially legit stick man and 3B until he couldn't stay out of the PED candy jar and then left the Mets for Mexico in 2017.  All that is a puzzler, but early on he looked like a DUDE pick.  I won't penalize the Mets here, his was a good pick that went awry.

7th rounder, towering lefty BRAD WIECK, was dealt to San Diego by the Mets in 2015.  He is in my draft DUDE category because any guy with 332 Ks in 249 minor league innings is worthy to elect and try to refine.  He walks a few too many, but could do some major league damage in 2018.

8th rounder, 1B DASH WINNINGHAM, was a very logical power pick for that round. He's stalled in Columbia, hitting in the mid .230s each of the past 2 seasons.  But his 75 doubles, 42 HRs, and 226 RBIs in 1327 ABs offer hope that he could accelerate as a 23 year old slugger in 2018.  

DUDE PICK.

10th rounder, LHRP KELLY SECREST, has done quite well for a 10th rounder: 11-12, 3.26 with 187 Ks in 182 IP.  Seven innings so far in AAA...possible future MLB lefty reliever.  In round 10, that is DUDE-quality picking.

DUD PICKS?  I count 5:

Can't criticize the Mets' 2nd round pick, except to note they did not have one!! Losing the second rounder for a washed up Michael Cuddyer was a DUD move.

3rd rounder Milton Ramos, SS, might be a good fielder, but he is another guy who makes Ruben Tejada look like A-Rod with the bat.  DUD PICK.  Now an Oriole farm laddie.

5th rounder JOSH PREVOST, RP, missed 2017 with an arm injury but only fanned 125 in 189 IP before then, while going 11-14, 3.65.  Hitters have gone .289 against him.  While he is big, his stuff is not big enough...DUD PICK.

6th rounder, C TYLER MOORE, is .211/.291/.288 in over 200 games.  Only 64 at bats above Full A.  Gotta pick better hitters, even if they are catchers, in round 6...DUD PICK.

9th rounder, 1B MICHAEL KATZ, put up good RBI numbers (101 in 719 at bats), but not much pop (.335 slug %) and 248 Ks.  Not a terrible pick, but I will go with DUD here.  He was released after 2016.

There were 3 very nice quality picks below the top 10, IMO:

17th rounder and LHRP DAVE ROSEBOOM had a dismal, injury ended season in AAA in 2017 after a brilliant 2016 AA campaign.  Hopefully, a healthy Roseboom will rebound sharply in 2018 on his way to the bigs.

29th rounder MATT BLACKHAM is a HARD THROWER who probably slipped to the 29th round due to his size.  After his obligatory TJS in 2016, he had a brilliant relief season with A ball Columbia: 1.42 ERA and almost 13 Ks per 9 IP for the reliever.  Matt - fast track to majors? We will see in 2018.

40th rounder DALE BURDICK is a young, hard hitting IF with strong defensive fundamentals. His bat needs work, but I think we will see young Burdick really blossom with more playing time in 2018.  Already reached AAA at age 21, even if for just 11 ABs.  .217/.310/.369 in A, AA, and AAA in 2017, but remember, he was only 21 in 2017.

Overall, I give this draft a B-, as any draft that gets us a talent like a Conforto starts out with at least a C grade; I hope, though, that the Mets of Queens will not draft any more defensive IFs and catchers in the first10 rounds who are small in stature and/or pop gun bats and/or having trouble breaking a pane of glass with their fastball.

Tom Brennan - DRAFT DUDS 2015-17

In previous DRAFT DUDS articles, I covered the top 10 draft rounds' picks for each of the years 2008 thru 2014, identifying draft DUDS (what were the Mets thinking picking those guys) and DUDES (smart picks, whether they panned out).  Guys I identified as DUDS were far less a critique of the selected ballplayers and far more a criticism of those doing the picking.

In draft years 2015-17, all covered in this article, I went less detailed on the players, since if I am critical, these newbies don't need it.  So here goes:

2015 - an odd draft year where almost all players drafted in round 21-40 by the Mets went unsigned. Regardless of performance and injuries to date, I liked most of the Mets' top 10 picks this time around.  No first rounder, again, but I still like OF Desmond Lindsay in the 2nd round, the traded P Max Wotell in round 3 despite a terrible 2017 in his new organization, love the picks of 3B David Thompson and P Tom Szapucki in rounds 4 and 5, am OK with P Chase Ingram in round 6, thought P Corey Taylor, C Pat Mazeika, and OF Kevin Kaczmarski were very solid picks in rounds 7-9, and the luck ran out with P Witt Haggard in round 10.

After round 10, the selections of crafty lefty PJ Conlon in round 13, fine starter Jordan Humphreys in round 18, and fine hitting Anthony Domino in round 28 made for a quality DRAFT...except for that forfeited first round pick.

2016 - brought us 2 first round picks in Long Island pitchers Justin Dunn and Anthony Kay.  Not so good there so far, but very hopeful for 2018.  Pete Alonso was a great 2nd round slugger pick, but the rounds 3-5 and #10 round hitters picked (Blake Tiberi, Michael Paez, Colby Woodmansee and Gene Cone) I am disappointed with - so far...maybe 2018 is breakthrough time for each, but it seems like those crucial rounds' hitter selections could have been better.  

I want to see more power hitting drafted in these rounds.

The Mets went with pitchers in rounds 6 thru 9, and I like the Chris Viall (6), Austin McGeorge (7), and Colin Holderman (9) picks.  The fact that # 8 Placido Torres is already released speaks for itself.  Below the top 10, I like the 15th round pick of super speedy OF Jacob Damon, and a few relievers show some promise.

2017 - I like the David Peterson pick in round 1, as he may become a quality starter.  I also like 2nd round, 17 year old slugging IF Mark Vientos.  After that, time will tell, but I would have wanted more power bats and less relief arms drafted in rounds 3 thru 10.  May I be proven wrong and all of the 3 thru 10 round guys dazzle us in 2018.

My conclusion for draft years 2015 thru 2017 is that all 3 years were solid pitcher-wise, but the drafting of hitters could have been greatly enhanced by a greater emphasis on power bats.  Why power?

Because there are very few meaningful hitting roles at the major league level, and if a player lacks power, he already has strikes 1 and 2 against him, unless he has a true speed tool.  If hitters lack power, most times they are wasted picks in terms of meaningful future major league contribution.  Draft a power guy like a Paul Goldschmidt in the 8th round, or. Rhys Hoskins in the 5th round, and you may find you've gotten really lucky with that pick. 

IF YOU READ THIS FAR, I HAVE TO AGAIN CONCLUDE: 

DRAFT POWER!