As of yesterday morning, the Mets pick would be 9th in the first round of the 2021 draft.
This group of five prospects all come out of college, a place I currently find a much safer place to pick your next draft from. The high school crop just didn’t get their senior year in to show us enough. The college crowd has shown us much more over the past few years.
Draft Site is out with their first mock draft and they have the Mets picking 1.20. Their pick surprised me:
Sonny DiChiara
1B 6-2 220 Samford
DiChiara tied for the Samford lead in his freshman year with 21 homers. He led the team with 55-RBIs, hit .293, and produced a team leading .646 slugging percentage.
2020 limited stat line: 15-G, 61-AB, .328/.378/.475, 2-HR, team leading 21-RBI
Mack Observation:
Sonny looks like a qualified first round candidate based on his power numbers, and I know you should always draft the ‘best player available’, but I can’t see the Mets spending their first pick on another power first baseman. They have two qualified, young players already available there in Pete Alonso and Dominic Smith.
Someone will get a quality bat here, but not me.
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Tanner Treadway
OF 5-11 180 Oklahoma
Treadway was a much heralded starting shortstop out of the Justin Northwest (TX) baseball program that went on to Oklahoma via Seminole State College.
OU: Played in 48 games and made 40 starts: 22 in right field, 17 in center and one at second base… hit .260 with 23 runs, five doubles, one triple, 10 RBIs, a .363 on-base percentage and a team-high seven stolen bases… had eight multiple hit games… singled and stole two bases vs. Columbia (3/1; game 2)… went 3 for 4 with a double, triple, a walk, two RBIs and two runs scored vs. Columbia (3/2; game 1)… was 2 for 4 with a walk, steal and run scored at New Mexico (3/20)… singled, walked twice, scored twice and drove in a run vs. Kansas (3/24)… doubled twice and drove in two runs at Wichita State (4/23)… went 2 for 4 with a double, RBI and two runs at Kansas State (4/26)… scored twice and drove in a run in a 3-for-4 day at K-State (4/28)… went 3 for 4 with a run vs. Texas Tech (5/4)… went 3 for 4 with a walk in the Big 12 Tournament vs. Baylor (5/22).
2020 limited stat line: 18-G, 74-AB, .378/.392/.689, 3-HR
Mack observation:
A talented infielder, converted to outfielder, that hits for average and has pop. I don’t see much wrong with this guy.
Should be strongly considered for the Mets first pick and a steal if he is still around in round two.
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Braden Forsyth
RHP 6-3 205 Mississippi
2020 (Sophomore): Season cut short due to the spread of novel coronavirus COVID-19 … Worked as Rebel closer … Recorded a save in all but one appearance this season … Worked to a 1.23 ERA with nine strikeouts in 7.1 IP … Led the SEC, was eighth in the nation with five saves … Was named SEC Pitcher of the Week in week three after recording three saves in the same week … Made first career appearance in Saturday game vs. No. 1 Louisville (2/15), worked two-thirds of an inning and earned first career save … Struck out three, worked a career-high 2.0 IP vs. Alcorn State (2/19) … Picked up save in one-run game after working ninth inning vs. Southern Miss (2/25) … Worked a flawless ninth inning to earn save in another one-run game vs. ECU (2/29) … Earned fourth save of the year one day later after working eighth, ninth inning vs. Indiana (3/1) … Worked 1.1 innings vs. ULM to earn fifth and final save of the year (3/10).
Rebel Grove: Forsyth just finished up his junior college career at Meridian and throws his fastball in the mid 90s. The secondary pitches continue to advance, and he should be able to contribute immediately with the Rebels. The upside here says high-leverage reliever and would allow Miller to float around or fill another spot if necessary.
Mack’s Observation:
Forsyth could easily be the first closer drafted this year. He was on fire in 2020 before the season abruptly ended. Sadly, he lost the opportunity to work on his secondary pitches during game conditions.
Some have him as a first rounder. I don’t draft relievers until the third round or deeper.
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Blayne Jones
SS 6-0 195 Dallas Baptist
DBU: 2019 (SOPHOMORE)
Garnered Honorable Mention Missouri Valley Conference All-Defensive Team honors … Played in 62 games, making 61 starts … Posted a .254 batting average to go along with five home runs and 33 RBI … Finished the season second on the team in walks (36) and third in both doubles (14) and stolen bases (11) … Committed just six errors in 263 chances to compile a .977 fielding percentage
Limited 2020 stat line: 16-G, 63-AB, .286/.357/.619, 5-HR
Mack observation:
Jones meets two of the three top factors in picking a draft pick. One, he plays great defense. And two, he has developing pop. What is missing is a consistent batting average. .286 at the college level is not something to write home about.
DraftSite has him as a first rounder. I don’t see it. Maybe third or fourth.
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Russell Smith
LHP 6-9 235 TCU
PG - Russell Smith is a 2017 LHP with a 6-9 220 lb. frame from Midlothian, TX who attends Midlothian HS. Extra tall well proportioned build, very projectable and not near physical maturity. Rock back delivery, good direction to the plate, high 3/4's release point, has good direction and pace to the plate. Fastball topped out at 90 mph, works mostly at 88, fastball mostly straight but hitters get bad swings at what look like hittable fastballs, will drop in a 2 seamer at 85 mph and a cutter at 83 mph as well. Infrequent curveball was pretty solid and has improved and could be used more. Change up is a nice pitch and effective with good arm speed. Biggest challenge will be improving his ability to throw from the stretch, where his height effects him more. Reminds of former big league left hander Jim Deshaises in many ways.
2011 limited stat line: 4-starts, 2-0, 2.57, 21-IP, 27-K
Mack observation
Remember… a 6’9” pitcher with a 90 mph fastball has a release point up to one foot closer to the catcher’s mitt than most other pitchers throws. That translates easily to a 95+ heater.
I’m intrigued here. Sure would have like to see him finish the season.
Definitely one to consider in the second or third round.
3 comments:
None of these 5 prospects grab me based on the write ups. That's where strong scouting comes in, to determine who is projectable, like someone somehow did with Brandon Nimmo in years past. Based on a write up of him at the time, none of us would have picked him in the first round. Yet, there he is with his career .388 OBP.
Mack, I wouldn’t be too concerned about the logjam at First Base/DH because Smith or Alonso should be traded this winter, and I’d expect it to be Smith. Smith misses the low throws quite a bit but is a more well rounded hitter. Alonso needs to stop worrying about being leaderly and keep working on his game, but even the 53 HRs came with a .256 batting average and a 26% K rate, and I don’t know how many times he will hit 53 HRs especially if he keeps chasing, I think he can improve if he focuses on his craft.
I’d like to keep both of them if I could, but there isn’t a reason to. A new GM hopefully will clean up the redundancy of the roster and stop bringing in four second basemen, four corner outfielders, and move one first baseman.
Texas, if they keep the DH, I would hesitate to trade either Smith or Alonso, unless they feel Alonso cannot fix his weakness.
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