1/22/21

Reese Kaplan -- Which Roster Hole Needs Attention First?

It’s been quite a week for Mets fans.  First came the ignominious departure of Jared Porter for, shall we say, overexposure.  Then came the Toronto Blue Jays offer accepted by George Springer to bring his good but not great center field skills north of the border.  Mets fans who were happy about how the pre-season was progressing all of the sudden took to the media to express their qualms, their tiffs and their frustration with how things turned out.  After all, spring training starts in under a month and there are still vacancies that need to be addressed.  The big question is which one is most important?


3rd Base


Sandy Alderson is a lot of things but subtle is not one of them.  He has been pretty upfront about the club’s dissatisfaction of having sometimes strong hitting J.D. Davis manning third base for the club on a regular basis.  There’s no two ways to slice it.  Even if he brought back his 2019 offense, he would still be more-or-less like a 2019 version of catcher Wilson Ramos whose lack of skills behind the plate helped compromise nearly every pitcher he caught.  Similarly, pitchers rely upon the third baseman to field competently and that’s just not a part of Davis’ game.  Unfortunately he’s not much better as an outfielder and they’re all stocked up at first base.  


So if not Davis, who then gets the hot corner?  Do you execute a trade for Kris Bryant?  How about Nolan ArenadoKyle Seager could probably be had for a bag of balls.  All would improve the defensive game but only Arenado is more-or-less a sure thing to help with the bat in his hands as well.

  


One of the more interesting ideas bandied about was a rumored package deal that would send Sonny Gray and Eugenio Suarez to the Mets for an unnamed package of players.  Combined Gray and Suarez earn an average of about $11 million per year for the next four years.  Considering he’s hit an average of 31 HRs and driving in 89 runs while playing a good third base, that’s not a bad price at all.  Gray has had two good years in Cincinnati despite being mostly bad for the Yankees before landing in the midwest.  He earns just over $10 million per season for the next two years.  So a combined outlay of $21 million per season for the two of them isn’t bad, particularly if you could palm off one year of Jeurys Familia to offset about half that amount along with J.D. Davis and a medium prospect.  


Center Field


This one has folks running in circles.  There are the “Just go with Nimmo” folks.  There are the “Sign Jackie Bradley, Jr. now!” folks.  There are the defense-only types who would be happy with a Kevin Kiermaier, Kevin PIllar, Alberto Almora or even Juan Lagares.  None of these solutions is ideal.  



Here the bundle bandied about with Milwaukee that includes the last two years of Lorenzo Cain’s contract along with reliever Josh Hader would certainly make people relatively happy.  Cain’s power has dropped off a bit but he still plays a first rate centerfield and the Brewers would be glad to be out from under the $17.5 million per season he’s owed for 2021 and 2022.  He’s still a career .288 hitter with close to 30 SB speed and double digit power.  I could live with him as a speedier but less powerful Curtis Granderson.  Paired with lefty Hader who earns $6.7 million for 2021 and will be arbitration eligible again after that, it’s quite a haul.  What you’d have to give up is a good question, but again Jeurys Familia would almost have to be part of the package to give them someone to replace Hader.  Maybe they’d like Nimmo?  I don’t know.


Starting Rotation


All of the sudden people are starting to chatter on again about Trevor Bauer who is not exactly getting wined and dined anywhere.  Apparently the latest rumor has it down to the Angels and the Mets.  I’ve said my piece about Bauer before -- he’s not worth $30 million plus per year for multiple years when he’s a career 3.90 ERA pitcher.  


There are many viable pitchers who can be had for significantly less, including Taijuan Walker, Jake Odorizzi and multiple trade candidates.  You could do the Brodie Van Wagenen maneuver of signing in bulk, hoping at least one of them amounts to something credible.  Or you could go the elder statesman route for the likes of Rich Hill, Adam Wainwright and others at the tail end of their careers who wouldn’t command much in terms of dollars or years on the contract.


Bullpen


Most definitely the Mets need to add at least one more solid relief pitcher, particularly if Jeurys Familia is destined to head out of town for his final year of being under contract.  A strong lefty like Brad Hand would certainly fill the bill, but it’s probably a difficult sell considering how dominant he’s been only to be told he would be backseat to closer Edwin Diaz.  The Mets could reach out to lesser options like Justin Wilson or Jake McGee, but neither would give you the boost a Hand or a trade acquisition like Hader would.  Of course, another strong starting pitcher or two would keep Seth Lugo in the pen where he could do what he does best. 


There’s no clear answer which way the Mets will move first, but it certainly seems there’s still a lot of roster manipulation to be done over the next 3-4 weeks before the pre-season begins for real.


13 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, tough decisions lie ahead. I hope Sandy and Steve make the right ones.

I sure would love to see them get Hand.

Viper said...

The Mets off-season plans went out the window when Sandy decided to trade for Lindor. Why do these idiots always have to have a signature trade every time they become a team GM/President?.

Now, it is not that Lindor is not an elite player. It is the fact that for what he will cost to keep, the Mets could have signed Springer, DJ Lemehiu (mispelled), Hand and then use Rosario, JD Davis, prospects to find a Carrasco type pitcher.

Doing that, the Mets would have closed the hole in CF, 3B and pitcher. That would also allowed the Mets to see what Gimenez could have done in a full season instead of just trading him away. The Mets did not have a hole at shortstop and could have lived with an Ordonez type wizard at the position.

Now there is continued talks about Bauer and I for one don't think he is worth the money. Are the Mets seriously going to pay Bauer more than deGrom? would anyone here take Bauer over deGrom?

What these idiots in the front office should do at this point is simple. Sign Brad Hand and either Kevin Pillar or Lagares and be done for now.

Have the Mets forgotten that they will need money to extend Syndergaard, Stroman Conforto, Nimmo and others after the 2021 season?

Viper

Tom Brennan said...

VIPER, YOU MAKE A GOOD CASE.

But what's done is done. and if Cohen decides to stay within the cap this year, I bet he won't next year, whatever the cap rules may then be.

Zozo said...

ReeseI think the 2 trade scenarios you mentioned above with some some salary relief to keep us near the cap can both be done and fill out our roster pretty well.

Trade 1 Suarez and Gray for Betances, Baty, JD and Valdez

Trade 2 Hader and Cain for Familia, Vientos, Kilome and Newton

By then taking those contracts back Familia, JD and Betances we would stay close to the cap and fill out our roster amazingly for the next few years at a cheap price.
Yes we give up a few prospects especially Baty and Vientos, but I feel they could be expandable because they both play the same position as Mauricio (3B) and he is the better of the 3. Also Kilome,Newton and Valdez are much lower down the totem pole so IMO exapndable.

Next year we are guaranteed to have
DeGrom
Carrasco
Gray
Petersen
In the rotation

And a great bullpen as well.

Tom Brennan said...

Zozo, a bold proposal indeed.

TexasGusCC said...

Lindor is a superstar going into his prime. How many of those are available? How many do the Mets have?

In interviews Alderson has said that Smith is not a left fielder, so he has to be mindful of his own opinion. Let’s give them a chance to see if something is doable but why would you want one of your best hitters sitting on the bench? By the way, SNY put it very well yesterday: if you sign Springer you’re losing Conforto or Syndergaard. That’s a bad option for the Mets and Springer may have turned into a regret in a few years. Why isn’t anyone asking why the Astros aren’t trying to convince him to stay?

Alderson has also said that Davis is working hard and he wants to reward that, otherwise, if players see that their efforts aren’t encouraged or rewarded, why bust your butt? Is that the workplace you want to be in?

Lastly on the Bauer signing, I’m sure by now Bauer has felt the reality of his bubble bursting. He might be a good signing at about $22-$24MM per year, but if the Mets sign him there is no way they stay under the Tax. Let’s give these people a chance and while we all have opinions, it’s not easy to convince other teams and other players to see things from your perspective.

TexasGusCC said...

Interesting Zozo, but as long as there are options in free agency to replace the Gray or Hader portion of the deal, can we keep the top prospects out? Cain would just be a salary dump and not cost nearly as much in prospect currency. Suarez would be a much bigger deal, of course. I would do #2 before I’d do #1 because it keeps one of the six better prospects out of a deal but #1 has other merits for sure and I’d be ok with it. Know that Suarez has some home field splits dealing with playing in that park. Very good offers!

Tom Brennan said...

Texas Gus, another way to look at Lindor: as he turns 27, who would you rather have at the same age? A David Wright? A Jose Reyes? A Darryl Srawberry? I'd go with Lindor over any of them, and that is saying a whole lot.

Mike Steffanos said...

Good post, Reese. At the press conference to discuss Porter's termination, Alderson said that the Mets would have a clarification of their front office situation in a couple of days. Still waiting for that, and with so many decisions still to be made it's pretty important

Anonymous said...

As we all should know, Sandy is not typically a wheeler-dealer GM.

He is methodical, cautious, solid.

How many big trades has he ever really done? Yes, Lindor happened, but that's much more the exception than the rule (and it was a salary dump by Cleveland).

So I'm personally not expecting a lot in terms of creative trades (though the Cain salary dump is worth exploring, IMO).

I am not a big fan of Bauer because he's an abrasive, opinionated, lightning-rod type player -- so not one in whom I'd want to make a huge investment. That said, it's misleading, I think, to quote his career ERA as if that defines the pitcher. He was really, really good last year. The stuff is there for anyone with eyes to see. Held the Braves to one hit in a playoff game when it was all on the line. Would the Mets instantly become a much, much better team with him on it? Yes, I think so.

My sense is he's going to the Angels and that's okay. But if we signed him under the right terms I'd think we'd be right there for the NL East pennant. Today, I'd still pick the Braves because of their overall talent mix and young starting pitching.

Team needs and priorities? Pitching and somebody who can "go get it" in CF, assuming there's a DH.

Jimmy




That Adam Smith said...

So much of this depends on the DH decision. Smith’s (and Alonso’s) bat has to be in the lineup. Assuming the DH, and also assuming that they’re resigned to paying the LT in ‘22 (seems unavoidable) I’d be interested in Cain for his two years remaining for a modest return as long as Familia’s contract goes in the deal (or somehow). Definitely don’t want to commit 3-5 years and big money to JBJ. This would allow another RP (hopefully Hand if he wants to come here w/o a guaranteed closer’s role, and another starter to compete for the #4/5 spot. Not sure what to do about 3B, but want no part of Arenado’s deal, and I think that people are vastly underestimating what it would take to get Suarez. I want no part of Bauer.

Anonymous said...

I like your comments, Adam.

It's funny about JD Davis. I just believe in him as a hitter, despite 2020. I might, weirdly, have more belief in him than I do in Pete or Dom. I can't explain it and won't try to defend it.

I'd like to see him RH bat in the lineup and I'd live with the shaky defense because you can't fix everything in one offseason.

I've been negative about Pete and that's probably overstated. He might turn out to be just a 6-hole guy with big power who works for peanuts. That's valuable.

We have to have the DH. I think the Martinez signing suggests quite clearly that Sandy thinks there's going to be a DH in 2021. Martinez can't field -- at all -- but he can rake.

At the end of this offseason, there's going to be a lot of big-time bargains left on the racks. Players signing very low one-year deals. Sandy is usually pretty good at that type of shopping, and I'd think any number of players would find a minor-league/major-league, incentive-laden contract with the Mets to be quite attractive.

Jimmy

Remember1969 said...

Man, you can sure miss a lot when you are gone all day :-(

A few comments:

While I do not own the website, and don't want to cause friction, but I do think that we as a community should be more respectful and limit the use of the word 'idiot' to zero. Nobody deserves that. You may not agree with them (or others), but they are professionals doing the job that those of us yacking about them cannot.

With that being said, I don't agree with Viper's comments. LeMahieu was not the right guy for this team and Lindor >> Springer when considering age and position. It will be interesting to see if/what they do about centerfield defense. It is now being reported that they may be targeting JBJ. In my opinion, JBJ for 3 years + Lindor > Springer + Gimenez.

Moving on to Zozo's trade proposals. Interesting. I kind of like them both, although I think I would be tempted to do Vientos instead of Baty in the Reds deal, and maybe throw in Gsellman or somebody.

Trade 1 would be a net add of about $15M (2021), enough to add a JBJ and either McGee or Wilson as a lefty.
Trade 2 would be a net add of about $11M (2021), enough to add a starter like Walker and a utility guy like Kike.

I completely agree with Gus about Lindor - it is nice to have a true superstar playing every day. They already have one in deGrom, but having Lindor is terrific.

To get back to Reese's original question, my response is centerfield. Like the rest of you, I really hope we get the DH (never thought I'd say THAT!), but my preferred get is Jackie Bradley, Jr., moving Nimmo to left, Dom to first and Pete to DH ... or rotate the three of them through DH to give them all time on the field.

Second hole to fill in my mind is LHP. Hader would work at the right price (altho not sure why Milwuakee would consider trading him for anything other than top prospects). Hand would work, or even McGee or Wilson would be OK at this point. I guess letting Blevins and Zamora have a crack at low-leverage situations isn't the end of the world.

I would like to see another starter - Gray is good, Walker is good. I do think Matz will have a good bounceback and is as good as most of the others on the list. I worry about Peterson's inexperience and lack of innings. Szapucki may be useful in some capacity.

Third base: I am not completely down on J.D. Davis. I would let him play with generous helpings of Guillorme as a late inning defensive switch or Guillorme behind Stroman (mix and match, depending on Mets starter and opposing team starters). Maybe Guillorme should be playing second when Stro pitches??

Good thread!