That's no Eagle - that's an Albatross.
Jason Bay was a bold, expensive Wilpons acquisition for the Mets 11 off-seasons ago.
And why not? In his 5 season stretch from age 26 through age 30, just prior to the Mets, he was quite the player:
Jay Bay averaged:
31 HRs, 104 RBIs, .278 with a .375 OBP, and 59 steals in 66 attempts.
Dang....that's good.
George Springer’s last 5 seasons, also 26 thru 30 (including adjustments to make 2020 a full season), come out to 32 HRs, 85 RBIs, .272 with a .363 OBP, and just 27 of 52 in steals.
BAY...ACTUALLY...DID...SOMEWHAT...BETTER.
The Mets got Bay for 4 years, $66 million, not 6 years' $150 MM.
For Mets’ fans, it was an awfully LONG 4 years ... and the fans sure didn’t get their $66 million worth. Reports were that Mets fans were avoiding all sorts of bays in those painful years, the less Bay the better.
They had a blow out on "Route $66". And the AAA tow truck never showed up.
Maybe the Blue Jays will get their money’s worth out of their 6 year, $150 million George Springer deal.
Or maybe they’ll get JASON: THE SEQUEL.
There we're more Bays in Mets' recent lore:
Jed Lowrie’s signing, coming off 2 fine seasons pre-Mets, felt good, too...at the time. Then Jed was MIA. Who can forget his Magnificent Seven hittless at bats?
David Wright’s contract? Thrilling, to exactly no one, it turns out, other than David Wright. The insurance company sure hated it.
Yoenis Cespedes’ contract? Initial excitement morphed into a boaring nightmare.
Smile...we may have just dodged an albatross.
Without George, hope still Springers eternal.
So, will Springer be a Blue Jay Eagle...
Or an Albatross?
28 comments:
I don't see a connection between Springer and Bay.
I'm always a little irked by most Jason Bay comments. It was a good signing, and he was what that team needed -- a solid, right-handed hitter to plug into the lineup.
However, after a rough start (as we've seen from many free agents, adjusting to the city and the expectations of a big contract), Jason Bay ran into an outfield wall with his head.
Then he did it again. He was never right after that.
This was at a time, not so very long ago, when the effects of concussions were trivialized or ignored.
In Spring Training of 1968, Tommie Agee was beaned by Sandy Koufax. He was terrible all season, hitting, as I recall, .217 for the year. A bust, a flop, a disaster. Given time to recover, he settled in and was a force on that Miracle Mets team.
The signing was not the problem with Jason Bay. It was that damn wall.
Jimmy
Jimmy, you're probably right on Bay and the Wall. Between concussions and balls that were HRs with Boston that were warning track flies in the Cavern Known as Citi, he certainly was cursed. Other than the $66 million, of course.
Six years is such a long time and lots of bad stuff can happen to aging stars. Downside for the Mets? Maybe he would have been a difference maker in 2021.
Remarkable, offensively, how similar Bay's and Springers's prior 5 year numbers were, though.
Bob Gibson was, to be clear, the Agee beaner. Koufax rarely hit anybody. Gibson's welcome to the NL pitch to Agee, the first batter that spring training, was a terrible message and season ruiner. Watching Agee early in the season strike out over and over because they kept throwing him sliders as he flinched and stepped into the bucket was so painful to watch. He got his revenge with a ring in 1969.
Nothing ventured, nothing gained, Tom. Like you, I'm opposed to long-term contracts, though once a player has shown success here I'm more flexible. Wright's success on the field and clubhouse presence EARNED his contract. Yo's incredible 2015 earned a new deal. And a 2-year offer to Lowrey was not out of line. No one could have foreseen the injuries that made the deals awful.
Bay and Springer found success elsewhere, but those don't necessarily translate well in NY. A comparison to George Foster, Carlos Baerga, Roberto Alomar, et al, is appropriate.
No way would I even offer the "only" 6/$120 that Springer turned down. We've got a group of home-growns and trade acquisitions to consider extending. Without Springer or Bauer, it's still tough to keep 4to, Stro, Thor and especially Lindor beyond '21. With them, we'd lose a lot more than we'd gain.
The Mets got George Springer, he’s at SS - and just entering his prime, not leaving it. They can put Gimenez (Bradley) in CF and be happy. The only problem is the SS needs to be resigned. Problem with adding another player is one of your current players will have to sit and that’s a bad use of resources. Not having a GM hurts but maybe the runner-up Scott can get something done. I would sell high on Smith, hard to expect his value to go up, and use that to get me a CF.
Mets: Dominic Smith
Rays: Kevin Kiermaier and some pitching prospects
This is too obvious to not happen. Runner up:
Mets: Dominic Smith and Steven Matz
Brewers: Lorenzo Cain, Josh Hader, and a prospect
Bill, good points - the commmon denominator is all those cited players are/were getting older - and baseball picks off aging players for many reasons. Frailty being one of them. Lots of players have Achilles Heels, as it turns out.
The list is long in baseball - Jacoby Ellsbury, Chris Davis, on and on. Past performance is no guarantee of future value.
Texas Gus, I agree - Lindor is far more attractive than Springer, just based on the DOB. Lindor must be extended long term - and don't forget the insurance.
Texas Gus, I think there is much Smith love. Assuming there is a DH, I think he is our future 1B. So bizarre that it is Jan 21 and the DH-or-not-DH issue is not resolved already.
Hader sure would be fun.
How about Arenado for Matz, Familia, Cano and Betances? Carve out salary room by dumping those 4 and have the best defensive left side of the IF anyone could ever imagine. Of course, Arenado's age is concerning. And they'd have holes to then fill.
I did do the Joey Lucchesi article yesterday, but his brief use in 2020 was bad and he was bad in spring training too. So whether he is better than Matz is unclear.
I have to agree with Bill and both agree and disagree with Gus . .
Once Lindor was on board, the most important thing is to lock him up long term. Lindor long term at his age now is a better get than Springer at his age now for the money. While I was a big proponent of signing Springer 2 and 3 months ago, I am rather thrilled with the way things turned out, especially if they shore up the center field defense with a JBJ (or someone else). As Bill and Tom point out, there are a ton of players who did not live up to their contracts after age 31 or 32.
Now for where I disagree with Gus - selling high on Smith does not yield Kiermaier or Cain, neither of whom is the right fit at that price. I do not want Kiermaier at any cost - the guy is just a lousy hitter. Cain is too old and expensive to give up a talent like Smith for. If they can get Cain and shed some salary (Familia? yeah, who we kidding?) for just a couple years, that would be fine, but it should not be the for the cost of Dom.
If Dom is traded for a centerfielder, there better be a name like Buxton or Laureano in the discussion. In the end, Dom Smith is way down the list of guys I want to see traded at all this year.
I also think we need to leave the Arenado chatter in the rear-view. That is just too many dollars to try to work around. Even after dumping a lot of 2021 dollars (Matz, Familia, and Betances are all off the books in another year), that is a ton of money when the questions of Conforto, Syndergaard, and Lindor are all outstanding. And if not Conforto, somebody has to play rightfield, with nobody on the farm pushing to get to Citi anytime soon.
Mets may want to look to Oakland for a CF. They have one of the best defenders in the game in Laureano (forgive the spelling) coming off a down year and one of the top defensive CF prospects in baseball. They may be able to work something out.
I only agree with article if the Mets sign long term Lindnor and comforto
Lindner is very good but the Mets already had 2 shortstops but needed a righty CC who could field. They have a better shortstop for one year but if they don't sign lindor they will be worse off next year than they were before they made the trade. And they still won't have a good field CC
Sometimes when you really need something you just spend the money and Cohen's a billionaire. An extra 5 million a year would not have killed them
69,
Look up Cain’s stats the last few years and keep in mind he had a bad shoulder most of the year in 2019. I originally had Familia instead of Matz, but the Lucchese deal makes Matz available and I also want Hader plus a prospect for Smith and Matz. That’s pretty nice, I thought.
CAN WE PLEASE STOP TALKING ABOUT TRADING SMITH. Frankly I don't get it guys he'd be one of the last guys I'd deal. By passing on Springer and if we add JBJ we also don't give up draft picks and I wonder if that didn't factor in. Also in regards to the Bay deal it happened because they wouldn't pay for Holliay as I remember.
Aptoklas, I don’t disagree that billionaire Steve couldn’t have sprung for Springer. But it almost definitely pushes them into lux tax. While a new CBA could change lux tax penalties, if the model stays the same, the tax rate goes up in the second and third consecutive year over the cap. He could have just done that, but if he stays under this year, maybe over the next 3 years, his lux tax cumulative bill is $50 million lower by not signing Springer now. Maybe the big over-the-cap splurge is next off seaso.
Gus, I have always been a big fan of Cain and was hoping earlier they could get him when his KC days were over. He has continued to rake and provide very good defense in Milwaukee. But the fact is he will be 35 by opening day and still has two years and $35M on that contract. I also don't understand why the Brewers would even consider trading Hader, unless they know something about his shoulder or elbow that nobody else does (or something else related to the big uptick in his walk rate in 2020). He will get to be a pretty expensive arbitration piece for a couple of years before free agency.
I am a Dom Smith believer and think that he will actually be the long-term first baseman when the DH is here for good, maybe even before that. I would not trade him for Cain and Hader at this point without any other pieces, let alone a perfectly good bounceback candidate like Matz.
If they could get Cain for Davis, I would love it.
Were all of them older than Springer?
I do not trade Dom Smith unless something really spectacular shows up. I'd still like to see what we've got in this young, still unproven ballplayer.
Cain is an interesting option. Two years left, so the age isn't that big a deal. The only way it happens is if the Brewers are seeking payroll relief. To make that exchange, they'd need to take on, say, Familia and a prospect, something along those lines.
Would you want Cain for 2/$25? For 2/$30.
I believe he can still field the position. I really wanted him when the Brewers signed him. A real miss at the time, I thought, and still think.
The Oakland CF is also an interesting option, though I know less about him. The good news is that at least Sandy should have that number on his musty, dusty old Rolodex. Man, we will miss Porter's connections and hustle. That's a part of the game that has passed the old man by.
My son asked: Does this mean we get Theo next year?
Jimmy
I should add that I am probably the least bullish on Pete Alonso of anyone I know (which ties back to the trading Dom idea).
Last year, in a short season, Dom was twice the player that Alonso was. It wasn't remotely close.
If Pete hits 50 HRs, he's valuable. At 40, with 100 RBIs, and that glove, I don't think he's an impact positive. (When games mattered in 2020, Pete was awful; he padded his stats the last two weeks, after it was over.)
When Pete hits for a .260 BA, with an OBA that goes along with it (should be .360+), he's a valuable offensive player. When he's throwing away garbage AB after garbage AB -- not able to catch up to fastballs -- chasing balls a foot off the plate -- I see only a dangerous hitter, not a good one. A mistake hitter. A 6-hole guy who can't field, not a cleanup hitter.
Six doubles in 57 games. Dom had 21 in 50 games.
Baseball Reference figured Pete for 0.3 WAR. In his rookie season, they listed him at 5.2 WAR. What's it going to be? Did pitchers adjust? Did Pete get distracted?
I think it could go either way with him.
My hope is that he is chastened and re-dedicated. Showing up in shape would be a nice start.
One other nagging suspicion: He really, really wants to stay on the field. This is not a young man who wants to be a DH. I could see that becoming a bone of contention in time.
Ultimately, I have not made up my mind about Pete or Dom. We'll learn a lot in 2021. In all the amateur teams I managed -- kids, mostly -- I used to say that it's not the manager who decides who plays shortstop. The players reveal it.
I'm curious to see how they play this year.
Jimmy
Jimmy, I’d trade Alonso or Smith. But, Smith’s value is at its apex and I think Alonso has the tools to be a complete hitter.
It doesn’t HAVE to be Hader, plus I asked for an additional prospect. No prospect if they take Familia. Matz was included because he may bounce back, may not, and then is a free agent.
I thought we were doing pretty good there...
Jimmy, I agree with Smith over Alonso at 1B. Smith will save the Mets several games there vs. Alonso over the course of a season. And he may be a better hitter.
That said, Pete has a lot of pride and after eating dung pie most of last season, he knows what he needs to fix hitting-wise. But defense, as Mack long noted with him, is anything but a natural skill.
We badly need the DH, and Alonso needs to embrace that. Nelson Cruz has done truly well as a DH. Pete, as I wrote in an article, needs to be able to rebound from off seasons like Harmon Killebrew did. Embrace your role, and gun for the Hall of Fame in it...whether you get there or not.
Bill, Wright re-signed with the Mets 500 days younger than Springer, but Wright's deal was longer.
Cespedes' 4 year deal - he was about exactly the same age (years/months) as SPringer. Thank heavens Cespedes wasn't 6 years.
All true, Tom, but my point about David and Yo was that they had both proven that they could handle playing in NY.
I will always give "extra credit" for that, over bringing in someone who hasn't played here.
And I still believe that if they both had stayed healthy the deals would have proven worthwhile.
Here's a comp for Pete that troubles me, or at least indicates a sort of worst-case scenario:
Pete in 2020 (208 ABs) 16 HR, 35 RBI .231/.326/.490 .817 OPS
In 2019, he had a bit less than 3x the ABs (597). We can fudge the math, tweak his counting stats and pencil that in for 44 HRs and 95 RBIs, give or take. Just rouging it out.
Compare that to another first baseman from not too long ago:
41 HR, 94 RBI .222/.321/.499 .821 OPS
The homers were league leading. And his defense was even worse than Pete's. After that season, his team declined to offer him a contract. He caught on with another team the following year and was out of baseball shortly after. Everyone in the game realized that all those counting stats, the homers and RBIs, just didn't make up for the bad defense and overall uneven hitting (lot of Ks, too; also like Pete).
He earned only $2.5 million in 2016 and the Brewers still let him walk.
I'm not saying that Pete Alonso is Chris Carter.
Just that . . . in 2020 he kind of was.
Jimmy
Jimmy, I think we need to feel cautious about Pete Alonso. He frankly was dominated by pitchers much of the time in 2020. He needs to get spackle out and plug some holes.
He has shown some statistical similarities to Lucas Duda, which I will touch on in an upcoming RISP article. He wants to NOT be anywhere near the next Lucas Duda. He, in my opinion, should be doing two things this off season. Hitting to all fields, and laying off out of the zone sliders and curves. Without his raw power, he might never be a good hitter, but raw power he has in abundance. Just make more contact on pitches in the strike zone - the power will do the rest. Be ready to field better - but also be ready to accept a DH role and embrace it if that is what happens.
Tom,
I was impressed in the AAA All-Star Game when Pete took some hotshot's 99 MPH fastball deep. I might have the details wrong on that. But what I thought I saw his rookie year with Mets was guy who could handle a Major League fastball.
That wasn't the case last season.
And what happens when hitters get consistently beat by the fastball is they start to guess, to anticipate, to react a split-second sooner -- which makes that hitter especially vulnerable to the slider.
(Example: Wright, David, the later years.)
Which is what I think I saw last season.
Again, look: Pete crushed 53 homers in 2019. No one has ever had a "bad" 50-HR season. There have been some poor 40-homer seasons, IMO.
I want to see Pete get his bat up to speed again. Losing some of that flab should help. Getting his head right will be just as important.
He really, really, really wants to be on the field. Talks about a Gold Glove. I don't think the Mets should turn him into a full-time DH right out of the box. Mentally, probably best for him as a hitter to get on the field sometimes.
We will see. I just got a very, very bad feeling watching him (try to) hit last season. I hope it was an aberration. We're going to know a lot more about him, and Dom, a year from now. I'm willing to sit back and let them get 600 PAs each in 2021.
Jimmy
Jimmy, I thought Pete just tried to muscle up too much last season, and he seemed to not just hit better towards the end, but I remember him saying his swing was getting more fluid again. I can't imagine he is losing bat speed - but, just like Smith, Pete needs to stay super-trim to maximize his output. No room for flab.
The article I did recently on Howard, Killebrew and Alonso showed that Killebrew had his off years, but he figured out a way to have subsequent great ones. Pete needs to do that.
Actually, that AAA All Star game HR by Alonso was my first WOW moment with him, because he almost cleared all the rows of seats in the MLB upper deck of (can't recall) the stadium, a truly massive blast.
Let me put it another way - if Pete can't come back strong, which I would say is .250 with 42-48 homers and 110 RBIs, I will be disappointed with him in 2021.
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