July 1, 2021
Before the start of the season, I predicted the Mets staff
would have a collective ERA around 3.5 for the season and that their hitters
would eclipse 800 runs. Now as we
approach the half way mark the staff ERA hovers slightly above three. Normally, such excellent pitching would
suggest that we are running away with the NL East. Unfortunately, we are scoring runs at the
same pace. No wonder we find ourselves
in a tight race.
As we move forward, it’s unrealistic to expect the pitching staff to perform at the same level, especially with Carrasco and Syndergaard still a while away from being able to contribute. One of the concerns pre-season was the bull-pen. Over the first half of the season they generally exceeded expectations. Going forward their warts may have been exposed.
Once
you get past Diaz, Lugo, and perhaps Loup and Familia, I have little confidence
in May, Castro and Smith. I’m going to
stick with my original projection of a 3.5 ERA for the season, but it means we
will give up an average of four runs the rest of the way.
On the other hand, the Mets hitters can be expected to be more productive. It’s hard to believe that not one player has had anything resembling a hot streak thus far. I have this affliction and can’t seem to get over it. I tend to love the players on the team and I make excuses when they don’t perform well.
Now I’m starting to come to the conclusion
that perhaps this is not the right group to bring us to the Promised Land. Maybe a makeover is necessary. Maybe it’s time to consider offers for our starting
eight. Here’s my list of players to
consider moving in order of preference.
JD Davis – while it’s true that he has a productive bat his
defense is a liability. One reason for
our early season success is that we have played strong defense.
Dom Smith has regressed.
He is no longer a feared presence in the middle of the line-up. He is a first baseman at heart playing left-field. Think it’s time to find him a new home. I believe his trade value remains high.
James McCann is not an everyday catcher. At best he should play no more than two out
of every days and spelled by Nido. It
will be interesting to see how well he performs once the team is healthy again
and he is slotted back into the eight hole.
Pete Alonso continues to be an enigma. Have we simply over-rated him? Maybe he’s not as good as we thought. He would be an attractive commodity on the
open market.
Michael Conforto is going to be a free agent. My recommendation is to sign him. He is an above average fielder who has been
a productive bat in the past. He would
be difficult to replace. There is no prospect
waiting in the wings. And, I don’t
consider Cortes as an adequate replacement.
Jeff McNeil is someone I expected to contend for a batting
title. My projection is that he turns it
on in the second half. He is a top of
the order hitter. Slotting him in the
seventh hole would be counter-productive.
Brandon Nimmo has got to stay healthy. It’s hard to describe the intangibles he
brings to the table. Definitely a keeper.
Francisco Lindor – we are stuck with him for the next ten
plus years. Even his defense is not as
advertised.
I projected the Mets would win 93 games. I no longer believe that is attainable. At this stage the Nats look like the superior
team.
Ray
9 comments:
Part One: Excellent post Savage man! Liked it a lot. Here are my own thoughts regarding.
It was not a great Braves game last night. We all saw that. We all know. Disappointing. However, sometimes these games happen and sometimes it can actually be a "huge benefit" for any team's management to address because addressing these things now effectively could seriously impact favorably the team moving forward second half especially. Although you never want to overly emphasize what seems apparently obvious from just one game either.
I saw the game stats and all.
What I saw was a string of kind of young Mets pitchers all sort of implode all at the one same time. Kind of like the age old adage, "If it does not kill you, it makes you stronger" and this could. But the four hits were apparent here as well. The Mets have been up and down batting for sometime now.
I agree with you Savage that all of this together does illustrate potential weaknesses, but to my eyes maybe not quite so many as some fans will try and conclude by just this one game. So let's get started shall we.
Harsh but realistic piece.
Hang a copy of this on every field player locker.
Part Two: Sifting Through
The NY Mets are in first place, six games over being 500%, two games ahead of the second place Washington Nationals, and this is a good thing.
What this Mets team appears to need the very most right now, I think anyway, is one more really good left-handed starter. I like the notion of trying to go out get a young "up and comer" lefty like the Padres top prospect MacKenzie Gore, Boston's young lefty Darwinzon Hernandez, or Scranton Wilkes-Barre Roughrider's lefty Trevor Lane. The Mets do have the depth now to make these kind of deals and need to soon. I too hold little optimism for either Noah Syndergaard or Carlos Carrasco returning to this team in 2021. But it sure would be nice if even just one could. Their injuries just seem too serious right now to judge their return dates.
I think the bullpen will settle down. No bullpen is ever "perfect" but every team needs to try and get it close. This team is pretty close I think. The bullpen seems tight to me.
I am not really happy offensively with this team currently, only because a true consistency has not been established yet in 2021 with it. It's been basically a .250 BA team, and we need more. Michael Conforto and Jeff McNeil are not the same as they have been recently in the past. I am not sure why.
I think Francisco Lindor is showing sincere signs of being able to excel again. I like JD Davis on third base, he can be a true offensive catalyst. And Pete Alonso is fine and has shown improvement defensively. Dominic Smith has flashed some nice glove in left field and at times shown offensive prowess.
At second base, I do have some concern.
No one is absolutely dominating this position and for whatever reason that may exist. Luis Guillorme right now is the team's best bat there. But I might actually be persuaded to take a look at Binghamton's Carlos Cortes a few games there. It could be a key source position for trades as well.
The other potential bright spots for this team to me are with pitchers Corey Oswalt and Drew Smith, who have shown excellent development and sincere improvement as of late. I think that this could be big having these two really good pitchers at their peak performance levels for not only potential relief purposes but also starting. I am their biggest fan and I never gave up on them. There are reasons why I see.
Let Wednesday's Braves loss go. It was one game. They happen. Time to move on to the next one. Focus there. Let your wounds motivate you to your own greatness.
Opinions. We all have them.
Interestingly, I was watching batting video from Mets catchers Mike Piazza, Gary Carter, and James McCann. If you get a stray moment, you may want to go and watch those videos too on youtube. I found it interesting because these (to me) are the three most powerful hitting longball Mets catchers in this team's history. Look and compare their batting mechanics. Each one was a powerful homerun hitter, but each catcher had their own unique style of doing so. All three are very topflight defensive catchers as well.
Gary Carter: A powerful swinger, hit mostly with top upper right hand and exceedingly powerful wrists. Employed a marginal step-in batting approach. The man could turn quickly on any fastball with ease.
Mike Piazza: Hugely powerful arms. No step in and little hip swivel used. His swing was the thing. Was so strong in full cut at the ball, that he didn't have to do anything else in his mechanics. Knew it was gone from the moment he hit it.
James McCann: Closes his open stance in a sort of step-in approach generating additional power and balance control through his legs. Can hit homeruns not even making solid contact (for him) on the ball. That strong.
This is precisely why I recommended the Mets getting James McCann in this past off season. The man is powerful, yet smooth as can be in his batting mechanics. I had missed that power here since Mike Piazza.
Call me selfish.
It's been said that the fans root for laundry. I'm well past that. Just because someone is wearing a Mets uniform doesn't give him a free pass for poor performance. If someone isn't getting the job done, find someone else. It's that simple.
Terry Collins said it best in 2015 - "You hit - You play" 'nuff said.
Once again we show ineptness against lefty pitching. Three hits against Freid totally unacceptable. I'd trade Smith for a legitimate right hand bat to address a weakness.
Ray, the hitting deficit over-pressured the pitchers, who are feeling the strain in many ways of late.
And we fux it by trading Mcneil for Donaldson?
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