On May 30th, the New York Mets starting pitchers had the 4th highest Wins Above Replacement (WAR) despite pitching around 75 innings fewer innings there there competitors in all of major league baseball. If they continued at their pace, with the performances of Jacob deGrom, Taijuan Walker, Marcus Stroman, we were talking about a historically good pitching staff. The performance was encouraging as we had seen glimpses of David Peterson breaking out, and Joey Lucchessi seemed to be turning a corner as well.
In addition, we were also anticipating the return of Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard in June, and it was hard not to salivate over the idea of a potent and deep rotation that can take the team deep into the playoffs.
Since that time, a constellation of injuries has decimated the rotation. deGrom, who was on pace to have perhaps the best season EVER by a starting pitcher, has been sidelined since before the all star break with an assortment of issues; Lucchessi was lost to Tommy John Surgery; David Peterson to an oblique strain--and now a broken foot; Jordan Yamamoto also is out due to a shoulder injury. The team has also lost valuable long relievers such as Sean Reid-Foley, Robert Gsellman, both of whom helped us get through difficult starts. We have now been forced throw out the likes in recent weeks of Corey Oswalt, Robert Stock, and Jared Eickhoff.
The only saving grace has been rookie sensation Tylor Megill, who has been fantastic, pitching to a 2.04 ERA over 7 starts and 35 2/3 innings. Recently added Rich Hill is also expected to provide dependable innings and depth.
But if the Mets want to not only make the playoffs, but do anything once they get there, they will need Carlos Carrasco to be the pitcher he has been over the last several healthy years of his career.
The 34 year old Carrasco had been one of the premiere starting pitchers over the last half decade; between 2015 and 2021, he holds the 12th highest WAR according to Fangraphs, at 20.2, and that's despite pitching only 12 starts in 2019 due to his cancer diagnosis, and no starts in 2021 because of his hamstring injury.
The other urgent need for Carrasco to perform is that he will be the most impactful pitcher they will have that they didn't have up until now, short of some unexpected turn of events.
The market for pitching is apparently sky high, but the market for bats might be in the Mets favor.
5 comments:
Carrasco is critical - he has to be good, or the Mets are going to come up short.
I feel so bad for Stroman - this crappy offense has left him high and dry.
These bums have to start producing. Lindor being out is no excuse. Houston lost Springer, yet leads the majors in scoring.
Good Points on the 2021 Mets offense.
It seems like the guys coming back from injuries (like Nimmo and Davis for instance) are the only guys hitting over a .260 BA. The remedy is not a simple solution. I could be talked into making some larger sized trades for better batters and I do like the overall team chemistry here now, but the problem has been game to game batting consistency here in 2021, and it is killing this team from developing a major lead in the standings.
Management decisions here have also hurt this team's chances of padding their divisional lead. Using MiLB untested starting pitchers (because of so many starting pitchers being out) has definitely hurt us. Even backup decent and experienced starters have been out hurt, to complicate matters more. Guys like Oswalt for instance. Add in the Covid 19 thing that most all MLB teams are experiencing hasn't helped any team either.
Nowadays, a team needs almost 15 starters just to get through a season decently. And with MiLB not playing in 2020, this has been a real problem for everyone.
Contrarian's Opinion Perhaps
On Javier Baez
Look at his strikeouts per at bats this season. It's above his norm of 1/4 of his at bats. It is now 1/3. That's a lot for a middle infielder who usually is a contact hitting guy. He's still young and plays a great defense, true. He has some power batting as well.
Here's the contrarian part.
My lineup right now would be this. 1B Alonso 2B Guillorme SS Lindor 3B Drury LF Davis CF Nimmo RF McNeil C McCann and Nido in a platoon which has been working out nicely.
The one guy that worries me "right now" is actually Michael Conforto. He just does not seem himself lately, although it could be one of a couple of things. His contract or his health overall. I might be talked into trading him for whatever decent pitcher I could get back for him.
There is only 1.5 hours left to do so. It will be hard to keep him here even at his current salary, heading into his next contract.
I like Luis Guillorme. I know he could start and do well if provided that opportunity. He's batting around .300 BA at current and plays a decent enough infield. Drury is a another right handed bat, one with fairly serious power. He is in his prime age wise for upper body strength and power. He knows that playing now could be his last shot at starting as well. He can do it. I've watched him since he was called up at the Yankees and had him slated to be a starter there for a long time actually.
My post here in the past.
1. Rest Jacob before trouble hit. Although Jacob is outstanding in knowing when to ask to be rested himself. His history is established.
2. 2-3 starts rest for Taijuan Walker, just to be certain that he is 100% healthy. He is a starting pitcher must going forward. The Mets could have started Drew Smith instead and given Taijuan that insurance rest.
3. Don't trade JD Davis. He's a little inconsistent at times, but a power source this team needs.
4. Drury could be a welcome right handed batter more here down the stretch.
5. Tylor Megill is the real deal. First time I saw him it was obvious. He's got a brother Trevor too, I think on the Cubs. Starter.
6. James McCann. I informed this board he was definitely worth looking at for here in the off season, same as Taijuan Walker was despite his recent injury that he was rehabbing from at that time.
What I say now is, get that one more starter in here who can add to this starting rotation equation. Just in case the team has more arm injuries sustained the rest of the way. I think the offense will be fine.
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